The
one thing that drives me mad, more than almost anything else in this game, is
trying to assess the state of the ground…
I’ve
been tipping for over 5 years now – and it still pains me to recall the times
when I’ve been caught out by it.
The
trouble is, it’s so important to horses.
Some
have really marked ground preferences and if they run in the wrong conditions,
they just won’t perform…
Trying to assess the state of the ground was at the very
front of my mind today, for both My Tent or Yours and Rayvin Black.
The
former needs decent ground in order to perform; whilst it just can’t be soft
enough for the latter…
My
eyes told me yesterday that Cheltenham wasn’t riding too bad – but last night, I
read interview after interview, where the jockeys referred to the ‘very soft’
ground.
Obviously it’s not an exact science, but I eventually
decided that it was probably going to be a bit too soft for My Tent or Yours to
perform at his best – and in Graded races, you need to be very close to your
best if you are to win…
It
was more difficult to judge the conditions at Hereford.
There was snow on the track until yesterday – and I
assumed that would leave the ground very soft.
It
certainly wasn’t quick – but it also wasn’t as soft as I expected...
Roll
on a few hours - and MTOY quickens up past The New One and Melon; whilst Rayvin
Black can’t go fast enough get away from his rivals, despite his jockeys
urgings…
It’s
incredibly frustrating to be so close and yet get it wrong.
Such
is life, I guess…
Aside from Rayvin Black, I issued 2 other tips on the
day.
Foxtail Hill ran gamely in the Caspian Caviar Gold cup –
but simply wasn’t good enough.
There were no excuses.
Solstice Son was a different matter, however…
Quite why David Noonan didn’t try harder to get him to
the front, I’m really not sure.
The
horse clearly wasn’t happy sat in behind rivals – and was effectively never in
with a chance.
Jumping the last, I thought that Vibrato Voltat was
really going to rub salt into the wounds.
He
looked to be getting the better of Mustmeetalady – but his stamina did finally
give out and he was pipped in the dying strides.
At
least I didn’t tip him as well !
As
for the other races on the day:
Then
Apples Shakira continued her marched towards the Triumph hurdle with an
authoritative win – she looked very good
again.
Kalondra was somehow allowed to go off at 10/1 in the
novice chase – despite being officially the second best horse in a 4 horse race.
He won very well…
Bun
Doran came to win the 2 mile handicap chase – but lack of race fitness caught
him out and he couldn’t get past the ultra game Ginos Trail.
Whilst the 2 horses of least interest, fought out the
finish of the Albert Bartlett novice hurdle.
Finally, at Cheltenham, Momello justified favouritism in
the closing mares hurdle – but was made to work hard for the win…
At
Doncaster, Markov jumped efficiently – and as a consequence, won
well.
Whilst Flying Tiger looked as if he needed the run (and
was a pre-race drifter).
He’s
one who I might be interested in again, next time.
Keeper Hill got the better of Braqueur D’or in the novice
chase; whilst We Have a Dream was quite an impressive winner of the 4 year old
hurdle and is now second favourite for the Triumph hurdle (behind Apples
Shakira).
Finally, at Hereford, Vision des Flos made a mess of the
last – nearly decanting Bryan Cooper.
He
shouldn’t have been in a position where it mattered - but he was and as a
consequence, he got beaten…
TVB.
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