Daily write-up - Dec 2nd

There are 5 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Newcastle, Doncaster and Bangor in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It’s the usual glut of racing on a Saturday – and there are some interesting races taking place – though finding tips has again proved tricky…

I think the issue is that most of the major weekend races are now priced up early in the week.

Therefore, by the time we reach Saturday, the bookmakers have pretty much got them where they want them.

The races are invariably competitive, so finding an edge, when most of the value has been eroded, is never going to be easy…

I’m determined not to force tips for the sake of it.

As I’ve said before, it’s a long season – and I’ve no intention of giving away points, when I don’t think I’ve got an edge.

Consequently, we’ve ended up with just 4 tips on the day, spread across 3 races.

I could have tipped more - but I didn’t feel completely comfortable in doing that, so the borderlines ones have become ‘Mentions’ instead.

The best of the days racing takes place at Newbury – so that’s where I focused most of my efforts.

However, there are interesting races at both Newcastle and Fairyhouse – and an eye catcher running at Doncaster, which also warrants a few words.

Here are my thoughts on the day…

Newbury

1:20 I’m cautiously optimistic that I may have found one here !

I put up Junction Fourteen in the forum, when he ran at Chepstow, in the pre-season.

He ran a really big race that day, leading to the second last – but then fading…

I felt he had half a chance next time out, in the Sadexo Gold cup at Ascot.

He’d finished runner up in the corresponding race 12 months earlier – and off a 6lb higher mark.

However, he’s a horse how needs to control a race – and Go Conquer got to the front that day and the others could only watch as he took the field apart…

I’m very hopeful that it will be a different story this afternoon.

Junction Fourteen seems likely to only face a couple of opponents for the lead today (Potters Cross  and Little Jon) – and dropping back in trip, I’m pretty sure Noel Fehily will want to press on.

And if he does – and he manages to get into an uncontested lead, then I think he will take some pegging back.

For a start, there is no one better in the game than Fehily, when it comes to controlling a race from the front.

He will also have a willing partner – who is reaching the point of being extremely well handicapped  (he’s won from a mark 2lb higher than he races off today).

There are plenty of potential dangers in the race:

Crosspark was an eye catcher last time – but I think he needs softer ground than he’s going to get today.

The ground should be fine for Gold Present – but he’s been found in the market and Nicky Hendersons have tended to improve for a run.

On Tour was a good winner at Aintree last time – and is not out of things off his new mark: whilst O Maonlai won the corresponding race 12 months ago and must have a fair chance of following up today ,form a mark just 6lb higher.

This said, if Junction Fourteen runs the race I think he is capable of, then it’s going to take some performance to get past him.

Let’s hope that he - and Noel - can deliver the goods !

1:50 I’m a bit disappointed that I can’t find a route in to this race – but I can’t…

The truth of the matter is, Vincenzo Mio aside, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the runners win – and that’s rarely a good place to be.

I did briefly wonder about siding with an outsider: Doesyourdogbite is potentially well handicapped; whilst Jaleo is relatively unexposed.

It wouldn’t be a complete shock if either were to win – but I don’t really want to be tipping every outsider that has got half a chance !

Dino Velvet and Maestro Royal are 2 others, whose prices are a bit bigger than they should be – and I could make a case for both of them…

I certainly don’t feel that the market leaders are unbeatable.

Air Horse One is favourite – but that’s mainly because he ran in a very strong race last time – and not because he is well handicapped.

Whilst Master Dancer was hugely impressive last time – but this is a much hotter race and he’s running from a mark 12lb higher…

At the prices, I’d be happy to take them both on – I just can’t find the right one to oppose them with…

If forced to bet in the race, I would side with Dino Velvet, as I think he represents a bit of value at 14/1. It wouldn’t be a confident pick though…

2:25 High Bridge sets the standard in this, on the back of his third to Elgin at Ascot, last month.

The form of that race has worked out really well, and even from a mark 4lb higher, he looks the one to beat.

He’s already won over course and distance – and his trainer, Ben Pauling is in excellent form.

He’s very much the one to beat – however there at least a couple in the race, who just might be capable of beating him…

The first of those is Charlie Parcs.

He looked a serious horse when winning on his debut at Kempton last December. On the back of that run, he was vying for Triumph hurdle favouritism with Defi du Seiul – however a subsequent fall at Kempton and slightly disappointing run in the Triumph itself, see him arriving here with a bit to prove.

That said, it is much too early to write him off – and if he’s as good as he looked on his debut, he could well laugh at an opening mark of 145.

Mount Mews is the other one of major interest.

For a start, it seems significant that Malcolm Jefferson has sent him down to contest this race.

He finished second in the grade 1 novice hurdle at the Aintree festival last season – and as with Charlie Parcs, could be thrown in off a mark of 145.

He disappointed on his seasonal debut at Ayr – but that was in desperate ground – and the run can almost certainly be ignored.

He’s quoted for the Champion hurdle – and if he’s up to just running in that race, he has to go close today.

The other 4 runners all have some merit – though I’ll be a little surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the top 3 in the betting.

As to which one - then that is likely to be the one that is best backed !

3:00 The big race of the day – and an excellent field has assembled for the inaugural running of the Ladbroke Trophy (the race formerly known as the Hennessy).

Total Recall heads the market, on the back of his romp in the Munster National.

He was clearly thrown in that day – but I reckon the handicapper has him about right now.

That’s not to say he can’t win – just that Willie Mullins is really go to have to improve him, if he is to do so.

At a price, I could be interested - but that price would be bigger than 5/1…

I’ve no doubt that American is a serious talent – though I do wonder about his ability to handle todays ground. I think he is more likely to be pulled up, than win…

Whisper also has plenty of talent – but he has to carry a weight to match – and I’m far from convinced that his jumping will stand up to the test.

Singlefarmpayment strikes me as the most likely of the market leaders – but he has little in hand of Cogry on their last time out run.

More than that, Cogry is double the price – and has a run style (prominent) better suited to big field handicaps.

I think that Present Man and Royal Vacation both have chances: whilst I could also see Potter Legend out running dismissive odds, in his first time cheek pieces.

Pilgrims Bay was an eye catcher last time – and whilst todays ground will suit him better, it’ll be some achievement for him to creep through a field of this size (he needs to be held up).

I’ll let Chris include him in the eye catcher totals (because he’s a massive price –and theoretically, a bit of value) – though  I’ll be surprised if he can win…

As you’ve probably gathered, I’ve spent a lot of time turning the race over, trying to find an angle (and not just yesterday !) - and the thing is, I keep on coming back to the same horse…

Missed Appraoch has always been considered a talent.
He was sent off an 8/1 shot for the Pertemps final at the Cheltenham festival in 2016 – and was favourite to beat American when they both made their chasing debut at Exeter last season.

He didn’t deliver on either occasion – but he did when destroying Label des Obeaux at Lingfield last December – and again when runner up in the NH chase at last seasons festival.

Clearly consistency isn’t a strong point – but I think he has the ability to win a race such as this.

He also has ticks in plenty of boxes…

He’s a second season novice (they do well in the race); he won on his only run at the course; he’s potentially well handicapped: he will have no issue with the trip – or the ground; he likes to race prominently; he’s wearing first time cheek pieces - and the cherry on top – he has Dickie in the saddle !

At 25/1, I felt obliged to get him on side.

Fingers crossed…

3:35 This is another race which I spent a lot of time on – but I just couldn’t find a horse which I felt comfortable siding with…

I’d feel happy enough taking on Overtown Express, on his seasonal debut – and on ground which is unlikely to be soft enough for him.

I’d also take on Duke of Navan, at the prices, at Nicky Richards horses don’t tend to do well in the south.

Baby King is harder to dismiss – other than because of his price; whilst I think Theinval is just about the most likely winner – but again, a price of 5/1 has minimal margin.

I like Just Cameron – and I think he’ll run his race.

However, that is more likely to see him placing than it is winning (I guess he could be an EW play).

I also wondered briefly about Greyboug, as he is likely to front run.

I think that could make his an in running play – but he’s not well handicapped, so is likely to struggle to win…

Dream Bolt is another possibility – and with a different jockey on board, I may have taken a risk on him, at a price.
I’ve nothing against Adam Wedge – it just doesn’t strike me as the most inspired booking…

All in all then, a race on which I reluctantly felt I had to pass.

Newcastle

12:30 Indian Voyage spent most of last season on my eye catchers list – as I waited for him to get the really soft ground which I feel he needs…

It never happened – and his handicap mark dropped accordingly.

He finally came good last month at Sedgefield, off a mark of 107 (20lb lower than he was running from, this time last year).

The ground wasn’t soft that day – but he had been stepped up in trip, and that seemed to help…

He’s been raised 5lb for the Sedgefield win – but is still potentially very well handicapped.

He’ll get soft ground today – even though connections attributed his last time out win to better ground !

It’s difficult to know how to read things – but at 12/1, he could be worth a small play…

2:10 This should really be a formality for reigning champion hurdler Buveur Dair.

He’s rated over a stone superior to his nearest rival (Irving) and should have no issue with conditions.

Assuming he jumps round cleanly, he will win…

I’m actually a little surprised to see eye catcher, Flying Tiger, taking him on.

Not because he’s got little chance of beating him – but more because if he were to run him (or Irving) close, it could negatively impact his handicap rating.

I guess connections have spotted an opportunity to snaffle some decent prize money for placing – I just hope it doesn’t back fire on them.

The other strange thing is that the horse will be running in bottom-less ground, having been taken out of the Greatwood at Cheltenham, because the ground turned soft !

It’s all a little puzzling…

3:20 Last week, I took a chance on Smad Place in the middle of the week, hoping that his race would cut up and we’d be sitting on a bit of ‘value’.

It didn’t happen, and I had to cover the bet on Saturday…

This week, I did the same thing with Bishops Road – and it’s worked out much better, as this race has cut up…

When I looked at it on Wednesday, it did look as if it might.

Dr Newland was issuing warning about the then favourite, Rock Gone – and a long journey to Newcastle for very heavy ground, was only ever likely to be on the agenda for the truly committed…

As those of you who were on the service last year will know, I’m a big fan of Bishops Road.

I tipped him 3 times last season (from 4 runs !) – and whilst he didn’t manage to win, he did run very well at Haydock (behind Bristol de Mai, in the heavy !).

His other two runs were in the Welsh National and the Grand National – so they are easy enough to forgive.

What’s really surprising is that the handicapper has seen fit to put him on a mark 10lb lower than the one he started last season from.

That seems incredibly generous, in the circumstances – and I’m very hopeful he will be able to take advantage.

He’s a horse who can run well fresh – and who absolutely needs the mud to be flying, to be at his best.

He made his seasonal debut in the corresponding race last season – and ran an honourable fourth, having travelled very nicely for most of the contest.

He’s Jamies Moores only ride on the card – and I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t go extremely close…

I could have just left it with him in the race – but as his price has now halved, it seemed a good opportunity to ‘buy’ a bit of insurance…

I can’t see todays test suiting Our Kaempfer; whilst it’s a big ask for Dedigout on his debut for Micky Hamond.

Boric could run well – but shouldn’t really be quick enough; whilst Beware the Bear is unlikely to get beaten up on his seasonal debut in very soft ground.

Yala Enki has a chance – but is probably high enough in the weights; whilst Sam Red is just a novice – and this will be quite a test for him…

I think the biggest danger to Bishops Road is Wakanda.

He won his race 2 years ago, from a 2lb lower mark – and then followed up at Ascot, from a mark 6lb higher.

He struggled a little last season - though did put in a couple of good runs, behind Definitly Red.

He ran a nice race on his seasonal debut at Kelso in October – and should have come on for that run.

I suspect that Danny Cook will try and make all on him today – and whilst I think Bishops Road is the better handicapped horse, if he’s not 100% fit, then Wakanda could exposed that.

At 6/1, he’s also worth having on side…

Fairyhouse

1:25 This is another race which I fancied having a go at – but on closer examination, I came to the conclusion that it’s too much of a minefield !

I guess that 4 runners in the green and gold of JP McManus should have given me a clue for what I was going to uncover – but ever the optimist, I ploughed on regardless !

My entry point for the race was Some Plan.

He’s a 2 miler (and many of these aren’t) – and he also looks fairly treated on a mark of 141.

He should run his race – though I suspect he will be vulnerable…

Next I looked at La Bella Vida.

She’s an unexposed novice, with virtually no weight on her back.

I initially thought she might try and steal the race – though I suspect she won’t get her own way up front.

In fact, I’ll be very surprised if Danny Mullins doesn’t try and make all on Kilcarry Bridge,

I can see him running very well – though he’s not a 2 miler, so could end up a sitting duck, late on.
He should be a good back to lay in running – but maybe not the most likely winner…

Favourite, Doctor Pheonix, looks a bit too high in the handicap to me; whilst Gwencily Berbas might find things happening too quickly.

As a consequence, I think that De Name Escapes me is the most likely winner.

He’s one of JPs quartet – and not the most obvious one (Mark Walsh rides Anibale Fly).

He’s also got a bit to prove, with only 3 previous runs over fences.

However, he is potentially very well handicapped – and this is a valuable race…

It’s too risky to try and second guess connections in a race like this – but if the money is down for De Names Escapes me, I suspect he’ll come home in front…

Doncaster

2:55 Just a quick mention for Barlow…

He was an eye catcher last time at Ludlow, on his first run for Emma Lavelle.

He ran as if he needed it that day – and should go very well today, off a 2lb lower mark and in a weaker race.

The only issue I have with him is the distance.

He’s been stepped up 2 furlongs in trip –and I would have preferred to see him dropped a little.

As an in running play, there probably won’t be any better today (he’s a real traveller) – but whether he’ll get home, is a different matter…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Newb 1:20 Junction Fourteen 0.75pt EW 20/1

Newb 3:00 Missed Approach 0.5pt EW 25/1

Newc 3:20 Bishops Road 1pt win 9/1 (advised Wednesday)

Newc 3:20 Wakanda 1pt win 6/1

Mentions

Newb 1:50 Dino Velvet (O )

Newb 2:25 High Bridge (O )

Newb 3:35 Theinval (P )

Newc 12:30 Indian Voyage (S )

Fairy 1:25 De Name Escapes me (S )

Donc 2:55 Barlow (C )