Sunday 19 November 2017

Review of the day

I was ‘thereabouts’ with my assessment for most of todays races – but I wasn’t ‘there’ with the ones that mattered, so it ended up a losing day…

I’d halved the field in the opener – and at no point did I look in any danger of having missed the winner (the ‘short’ list actually contained the first 3 home).

Solstice Star led the field early, with What Happenes Now and As de Pique sat in behind.
However, they probably went off too fast – and when the pace collapsed, What a Moment cantered into the lead.

He looked likely to win by a distance, but tired up the hill - eventually only just clinging on from Sugar Baron and Pickamix.

As de Pique unseated at the fourth last, when still going well (though whether he would have lasted home, is a different matter); whilst Dueling Banjos made a bad mistake at the water jump, which effectively ended his chance.

Coeur Blimey was well backed in the 1:15 – eventually going off at 7/1.
He ran a good race as well – though was a little too keen early and made some novicey mistakes.
I suspect he will come on significantly for the run – and could prove hard to beat next time (though I fear he won’t be missed by many).

I was a little irritated with the way the 1:50 race panned out – as earlier in the week when I looked at it, I was torn between Un Beau de Roman and Doitforthevillage…

However the latter came in for significant support during the week – which lessened his appeal – and the prospect of ground quicker than he wants, was the final straw…

As it transpired, the ground was just fine for him – but it’s always difficult to guess the state of the going before a race has taken place on it…

Un Beau Roman ran a decent race to finish fifth – and is another who it could pay to remain interested in, next time…

Finians Oscar was an impressive winner of the novice chase.
He looked in real trouble when Movewiththetiems quickened past him on the run to the last – but he then powered up the hill, to take the race.

He really does look as if he could be out of the top drawer – and it should be fascinating to watch him develop and progress…

Here was a turn up in the cross-country chase, where Kingswell Theatre made all, under an inspired ride from Tom Scudamore…

The horse’s chance wasn’t obvious, and he was available to back at 60 on BF this morning.
However, someone clearly knew he was ready to run a race – and he was backed in to 14/1 at the off.
It’s funny how that kind of support is invariable followed by a really big run – and leading from the off, he never saw another rival…

Vision des Flos was a bit disappointing in the closing event.
His jumping wasn’t slick – and he just didn’t seem to have made the expected improvement from his debut run.

He ended up beaten further by Poetic Rhythm than he had been at Chepstow.

With him under-performing it was left to the 2 horses, identified as his biggest dangers, to finish first and second – with On the Blind Side coming out on top…
Finally, at Newcastle, Triopas was beaten - despite being sent off at 8/11 ! (and in a 13 runner handicap !).
That said, I would be absolutely adamant that it was the ground which caused his defeat…

Connections probably felt obliged to let him take his chance, as he was well in at the weights - and Dickie rode him as aggressively as he could.

However, the horse is clearly just a plodder – and needs soft ground for his stamina to come into play…

The good thing is that people may take this run at face value – and off an 8lb higher mark next time, he could well be ignored in the betting.

I suspect that if the ground is riding soft, that will prove to be a mistake…

TVB.

No comments:

Post a Comment

End of season report - 2017-18 (including survey feedback)

Overview As always, I’ll begin the season review with the headline figures: For the 2017-18 season (Nov 1 st – Apr 14 st ) a tota...