Daily write-up - Dec 27th

The abandonment of Chepstow, means that there are just 4 NH meetings today: at Kempton and Wetherby in the UK – plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

It’s a shame that the Chepstow meeting was the one lost to the weather.

Obviously, there was the feature Welsh National – but there were also some good races on the supporting card.

Such is life…

The cards at the 2 remaining UK meetings, Kempton and Wetherby, aren’t anywhere near as attractive, from a betting perspective.

Kempton offers up a series of small field races, which will be run on softening ground (there was 10mm of rain overnight).

The feature race at Wetherby is the Castleford chase – and whilst that’s a decent contest, there isn’t too much else on the card to get excited about…

The most interesting action on the day, now takes place on the other side of the Irish Sea.

Day 2 of the festival at Leopardstown, serves up a varied, high class card – finding a tip there wasn’t too difficult.

There’s not the same quality at Limerick – but there is one very interesting race – which again, lent itself to tipping…

As a consequence, I’ve ended up with 6 tips on the day, spread across 3 races.

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and my other thoughts on the day.

Leopardstown

1:15 With Douvan out injured for the season, Min has now become the big 2 mile hope for the Ricci/Mullins combination.

He himself, had been off the track for the best part of 12 months, prior to his recent comeback win at Gowran.

He was very impressive that day – but an SP of 1/9 suggested that should have been the case !

Todays race should be much more of a test for him – though again, he is likely to start a prohibitively short price.

Hopefully he’ll win.

The sport needs really good horses – and there is no doubt that at his best, Min is a really good horse.

If he doesn’t perform, for whatever reason, then Ball D’Arc is the one most likely to take advantage (as the betting suggests !).

1:50 Mengli Khan marked himself down as a high-class novice, when taking the Royal Bond on his most recent outing at Fairyhouse – and I expect him to complete his Grade 1 double this afternoon…

As always, there is a fair amount of guesswork required when assessing novice hurdlers at this point in the season – but Mengli Khan has the best form in the book; plenty of scope for improvement – and appears to be highly rated by Gordon Elliott.

Willie Mullins fields 4 against the favourite, with Real Steal his apparent number 1 hope.

He was impressive enough when winning on his Irish debut at Thurles – but is likely to find Mengli Khan a tough nut to crack.

Whiskey Sour is the one who appeals most of those at bigger prices.

He’s only run once over hurdles – when winning on his debut for Willie Mullins, at Tramore.
However, he has since won twice on the flat and is now rated 98 in that discipline.

If he can translate that level of form to the hurdles, then he could be capable of testing Mengli Khan…

2:25 Neverushacon looks very interesting in this…

Rated 143 over fences, he runs off a mark of 119 in this hurdle race – suggesting, he could have as much as 24lb in hand.

Ofcourse there is a world of difference between jumping a hurdle and jumping a fence - but there are no obvious reasons why Neverushacon can’t be as good over the small obstacles as he is over the big ones.

He’s only run 6 times over hurdles – the most recent being 2 years ago.

His form over hurdles was of a fair level – without being anything spectacular.

He switched to fences 18 months ago – and quickly showed marked improvement.
The question is, was the improvement caused by him jumping fences – or simply by him getting older and improving..?

He was only 5 when he made the switch – so it’s reasonable to think he still had scope for improvement.

If he is simply now a better horse, then he looks very attractively handicapped.

In addition to running over fences, Neverushacon has also been running on the flat.

As recently as October, he finished fifth in the Irish Cesarewich off a mark of 79.

That run is more in line with his hurdles rating than his chase rating – but it was still a decent effort…

The other particularly interesting thing with him today, is the reapplication of a tongue tie…

It was tried for the first time, back in August when he ran over fences at the Galway festival.

He was a good winner that day – but flopped the only other time it was applied, in his next race at Kilarney.

Since then, he’s been running just in cheek pieces – but both aids are used today.
Whether it will have the desired effect, is a different matter – but I do feel that it shows intent…

As you would expect in a race of this nature, there are plenty of potential dangers.

However, only the novice Trainwreck, is completely unexposed – and his opening mark appears to be quite fair…

Ultimately, I think this race is there for Neverushacon to win – if he performs to the same level that he can perform to over fences.

Fingers crossed he does just that !

3:00 With a first prize of 110K Euro, this is a race worth winning !
And unsurprisingly, it has attracted a very strong field…

It would be no surprise to see a victory for any of the 3 market leaders (Squouateur, Polidam and Oscar Knight) – but equally, non of them is bomb proof.

In the circumstances, I think it makes more sense to back a horse who is highly likely to runs a race – even if it might not be quite good enough to win.

Step forward Bonny Kate.

I tipped her last time out in the Troytown – and she ran a massive race to finish third.

She was beaten that day, by a potentially well handicapped horse – and possibly a lack of race sharpness…

She won’t lack for race sharpness today – though there is a chance that she’ll bump into another very well handicapped horse.
Time will tell on that score – but as we can get 5/1 on her finishing in the first 5, I still think she is worth a play.

She would be worth a much bigger play, if the ground were heavy.

That’s her surface of preference – and todays relatively quick ground is a bit of a worry.

However, I’ll trust Noel Meades judgement on it being soft enough for her to do herself justice.

As I’ve said before, she has all the attributes required to run well in races of this nature: the jumps; she travels and she likes to race prominently.

With her fitness now guaranteed, I would expect her to run a really big race…

I don’t think that Dromnea is guaranteed to run a big race – but he just might do…

He ran in the corresponding race 12 months ago, off the same mark as today – and finished twelfth.

However, Mouse Morris’s stable really struggled for form last season – and has been doing much better this time round.

Dromnea was a good winner on his seasonal debut at Listowel in September, before running really well in the Munster national, the following month.

If he can repeat that form today, he will significantly outrun his odds.

The main concern with him, is whether he will be able to stay the 3 mile trip.
On heavy ground, I’d be doubtful – but I’m hoping he’ll manage it on todays better ground.

First time cheek pieces again strike me as an indication of intent – even if they are unlikely to help on the stamina front.

He is definitely worth backing pre-race to lay in running, as I’m sure he will be going very well at some point.

Obviously I can’t recommend that ‘officially’ – but there is sufficient in his price to warrant a risk that he does manage to get home.

The final one I want onside in the race, is General Principle.

He was a bit disappointing last time, when third in the Troytown, as he was sent off 6/1 second favourite that day.

He has a tongue tie is applied for the first time today – and Jack Kennedy retains the ride, suggesting connections haven’t given up hope with him.

Certainly the form of his fifth in last seasons Irish National, when still a novice, is strong – and you should never under-estimate Gordon Elliotts ability to get them spot on for the days that count.

Limerick

2:35 I’m a big fan of Sumos Novios and was quite tempted by him in this.

However, the reality is, the handicapper seems to just about have his mark – and he was a 4/1 shot.

I would expect him to run well – but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him beaten...

The question is, by what…?

Clearly The West’s Awake, Go Darsi Go and Youcantcallherthat, all have chances – but I was more drawn to a couple a bigger odds…

The first of those is Uncle Danny.
He was at much bigger odds first thing this morning (20/1) – but by the time I felt I could tip him, his price had been trimmed to around 12/1.

I still think that could be generous.

His novice win last season at Cork, worked out really well – and suggests that he could have 7lb in hand of his current mark (ignoring any subsequent improvement).

That was supported by his subsequent run at Cheltenham, where he was still in with a chance when brought down at the third last…

He’s run twice this season – but in conditions races where he had no chance.

Back in a handicap today, off a reduced mark – and with blinkers applied for the first time, I think we will see a different horse…

Fine Theatre is the other one that I want onside.

He is less speculative – but as a consequence, has less potential upside.

He caught my eye on his seasonal debut over hurdle at Clonmel, when he ran a really big race.

That should have put him spot on for today – and whilst he is better handicapped over hurdles, he’s always struck me as a chaser…

I like the booking of Donal McInerney – he looks good value for his 5lb claim.

I think that Fine Theatre still has plenty of potential – and hopefully today he will start to fulfil it.

Kempton

1:20 There may only be 4 runners in this, but as both Shantou Rock and Cyrname like to front run, there is unlikely to be a shortage of pace.

My feeling is that this should play into the hands of the other 2 runners – Tommy Silver and The Unit – but betting on how a 4 horse race will unfold, is always risky…

If either Bridget Andrews or Noel Fehily decides to reign back on their mounts, then Shantou Rock or Cyrname is likely to get an uncontested lead – and that could well be decisive.

In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race – though if it pans out as I expect (with a pace duel), Tommy Silver could easily pick up the pieces, late on.

1:55 Another small field in which pace/tactics are likely to have a big bearing on the result.

With a straight bat, I like Jester Jet and Midnight Tour best – and the latter is almost backable at 4/1.

She’s not particularly well handicapped, but the 7lb claim of jockey Kevin Dowling could tip things in her favour.

That said, 3 miles in very soft ground could easily stretch her stamina…

If it does turn into a stamina test, then that will suit Rons Dream.

However the booking of Tom O’Brien rather than one of the Bowen boys, suggests that stable expectations for her, are limited.

A watching race, I think…

2:30 I could have been quite keen on Special Tiara in this – but he doesn’t want soft ground…

Assuming it is riding that way, then all he’s likely to do, is set the race up for Politologue.

In fact, Forest Bihan could end up his biggest danger and is arguably over priced at 8/1.

The other option I guess, would be Politologue/Forest Bihan in a straight forecast – though this is all assuming that the ground is riding soft…

3:05 If I had issued a tip at Kempton today, it would have been Pilgrims Bay…

 I think he has a fair chance of winning – and an excellent chance of being placed !

The trouble with him is, that he’s a bit of a character.

He has to be ridden with restraint – and delivered at precisely the right moment.

James Best knows him well – and is capable of riding him as required.

However, in a relatively small field, there is a chance that he will be caught out by events beyond his control.

I would much rather have been with him in a bigger field, at a bigger price – but that’s not the way it has turned out…

He could still be worth a bet, as Brandon Hill is likely to put good pace to the race – and that will suit Pilgrims Bay.

I can see him being delivered between the last two fences – I’m just not sure what will happen at that point !

I very much doubt that Pilgrims Boy will burst clear – it will more be a case of if he stops ! 

With the 8 runners, it would be possible to back him each way and effective insure against him deciding not to go through with his effort.

I wouldn’t put anyone off doing that, once you are sure that 8 runners will go to post.

However, I’m just not sure he is worth tipping with the doubts and relatively limited upside.

The other one worthy of a mention, is Tintern Theatre.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run, before falling when going well, last time out…

His jumping is a concern – particularly as the Kempton fences can be unforgiving.

He has the ability to run well – but it’s a tough race and I see no margin in a price of 4/1.

Wetherby

2:05 This is the only race of major interest on the Wetherby card – and Cyrus Darius is the horse of most interest in the race.
He was an eye catcher when winning at Ayr on his penultimate outing – before again running well at Haydock, last time.

He travelled very powerfully in the Haydock race – but didn’t manage to get home.
I therefore see it as a positive that he’s dropped back in trip by half a mile today.

I would expect him to run well – and he may even be capable of winning – but it’s quite a tough race…

There are only 6 runners – however, all 6 can be given a chance.

It’s therefore hard to recommend siding with Cyrus Darius at a best price of 7/2…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Leop 2:25 Neverushacon 1.5pt win 10/1

Leop 3:00 Bonny Kate 0.5pt EW 25/1

Leop 3:00 Dromnea 0.25pt EW 66/1

Leop 3:00 General Principle 0.5pt win 25/1

Lim 2:35 Uncle Danny 1pt win 12/1

Lim 2:35 Fine Theatre 0.5pt win 12/1

Mentions

Kemp 1:20 Tommy Silver (C )

Kemp 3:05 Pilgrims Bay (C )

Weth 2:05 Cyrus Darius (O )