Daily write-up - Dec 29th

There are now just the 2 NH meetings taking place today: at Leopardstown and Limerick.

The meeting scheduled for Kelso, was abandoned earlier in the week: whilst Doncaster failed its 9:00 inspection this morning – which was a shame, as I quite fancied a couple on the card.

To be honest, the weather has made things particularly difficult this week.

The sheer volume of races, is always going to make it a challenging time – but when uncertainly is layered on top of that, it becomes nearly impossible…

The loss of Chepstow on Wednesday was a blow: whilst I expected Leopardstown to go the same way yesterday.

Trying to decide which races to study – never mind the horses to tips – becomes very difficult.

Anyway, there is no point bleating about it – I think I’m just irritated that I didn’t take a risk with Road to Respect yesterday ! 

As for today, there is now just the one tip – though I do quite fancy it.

Here’s the rationale – plus some thoughts on a few of the other races at Leopardstown…

Leopardstown

12:20 Considering it’s a relatively low grade, 19 runner handicap chase - I probably spent a bit more time looking a this race, than I should have !

I’m not sure why it drew me in – but it did.

Unfortunately, I didn’t manage to reach any definitive conclusions on it – though it wasn’t for the want of trying !

I think I wanted to establish a good case for either Don Vincenzo or Whatareudoingtome.

They both ran in the Troytown last time out – and that’s a much better quality race than todays.

Whatareudoingtome appeared to do best of the pair – but they actually ran almost identical races, until Don Vincenzo faded up the home straight.

Todays race is over half a mile less, so I doubt there will be much between them – particularly as Whatareudoingtome really needs more of a stamina test…

There were 2 others in the race, whom I had a really good look at…

The first was On the Shannon – and I can see him running well, even thought this will be his seasonal debut.

The final one which I spent time looking at, was Tyrrells Succes – and he was possibly the most interesting of the 4…

This will be just his third run over fences – and he fell on the first of them.

However, he seems to have an excellent attitude – and if he can jump round cleanly, I could see him going close.

If I were to get involved with the race, it would probably be with him – each way.

However, it does look a bit of a minefield, so as I couldn’t find a really strong argument for any of the 4 that I looked at, I figured a watching brief was probably the best course of action…

1:20 I spent a fair bit of time, wondering whether to tip Karalee in this – each way…

On official ratings, she is the best horse in the race (at the weights) – and at 6/1, should really be a bet to nothing…

However, there is a slight doubt about her rating (it is based primarily on one run at Punchestown last spring) – and there are at least 4 mares who can lay claim to one of the 3 places on offer…

Chief amongst them is Karalees stable companion, Lets Dance.

A winner of the mares novice hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival – she is very much the one to beat.

Like Karalee, she is owned by Rich Ricci – so you would think it significant that Paul Townend has chosen to ride her ahead of Karalee…

The 2 other main players, appear to be Forge Meadow and Lady Buttons.

I would have a slight preference for the latter, as she has been sent over from the UK to contest this race (presumably in the hope of securing some more black type).

That said I couldn’t completely dismiss a few of the outsiders…

Dawn Shadow beat Karalee at Thurles – and whilst there are plenty of reasons for thinking the form will be reversed, I couldn’t rule her out categorically.

The other one I’m wary of, is Mega Mindy.

She looked as if she was going to go very close last time, in the race won by Forge Meadow. However, have come there cantering, she backed out rapidly, up the home straight.
She looked for al the world, like a non stayer – but, if she actually needed the run, she could be a danger, at massive odds.

My inclination would be to back her pre-race and lay her in running.
As for Karalee – I decided on another watching brief…

1:55 I’ve just learnt that Mossback is a non runner in this – which is hugely disappointing.

I felt I could construct a really good case for him to at least be placed – but it will have to wait for another day.

In his absence, I don’t feel particularly strongly about any of the runners…

The presence of Thebarrowman and Shattered Love, should mean that Monalee won’t get an uncontested lead – which isn’t good news for him.

Rathvinden and Jury Duty are reasonable animals – but neither look world beaters; whilst I’ll be a bit surprised if Moulin A Vent is good enough to win.

By elimination, that leaves me with Dinaria des Obeaus and Bon Papa.
However, both of them have got a fair bit too prove – certainly too much for me to consider tipping either one…

Mossback was the one I wanted to be with – and in his absence, I’ll just be watching the race…

2:30 It’s impossible to look beyond Faugheen in this…

He was a hugely impressive winner of the 2015 Champion hurdle – but suffered an injury the following December, which kept him off the track for 18 months.

He finally returned to action last month and looked as good as ever, when despatching Jezki by 16 lengths…

In truth, he probably isn’t as good as ever.

He will be 10 next week – and I’ll be surprised if the injury hasn’t left some kind of scar.

However, in all probability, he won’t be exposed today.

Cilaos Emery and Campeador are promising young horses – but they are currently rated 20lb inferior to Faugheen – and that’s likely to be too big a gap for them to bridge…

If you take on Faugheen, it’s simply in the hope that he doesn’t perform to within a stone of his best.

Anything less than a very easy victory for him, will be disappointing…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Tips

None

Mentions

Leop 12:20 Tyrrells Succes (O )

Leop 1:20 Karalee (O )