Saturday 30 December 2017

Review of the day

You always need a bit of luck in this game – and we didn’t get any this afternoon…

I issued 2 tips on the day – and I think both were unfortunate.

Twenty Eight Guns misfortune was quite obvious, as she was brought down.
What made it particularly irritating, was that she was just getting back into the race, following a bad blunder.
The way the race fell part at the end, you have to think she would have been involved in the finish, as she had been given a patient ride.

Instead, it was Ms Parfois who benefited from the mid-race carnage.
I’d picked her out as the main danger - but there was no value in the early price…

The second tip on the day, was Shantou Bob.
His misfortune wasn’t quite so obvious – but I still think he was unlucky.

In his case, he was unlucky that the ground wasn’t riding as soft as he needs.
I actually thought he might get withdrawn – but I suspect connections fancied him and he was therefore allowed to take his chance.

He ran a fair race as well – in the leading group until getting outpaced going down the hill.
He lost his chance at that point – but was staying on strongly at the end.

I’m pretty confident that if the ground had been as soft as I expected, he would have gone very close.
He’s definitely one for next time – granted the right conditions – but that’s no good for today…

In terms of the mentions, then Summerville Boy was another who suffered because the ground wasn’t as soft as expected – and also because there was little pace in his race.
He too ran on late, to take third place, though he never looked like winning…

Sizing Tennessee won – even though his jumping was far from convincing.
He won’t get away with it every time – but he did today and had too much class for his rivals.

A bit like I Shot the Sheriff at Newbury, Okotoks travelled like a class horse – but didn’t find a lot when let down.
He may have needed the run, so I’d be inclined to reserve judgement until he’s been out again.

I’m happy to judge Southfield Theatre though – he’s one who should be left alone !
He shouldn’t have had an issue with the ground today – and he got an uncontested lead – but he just looked limited.
I do wonder how long he will stay in the Nichols stable…

Finally, Bless the Wing made me regret not taking a risk on him in the cross country chase.
As you probably gathered, I so nearly did. But I re-watched his most recent run at Fairyhouse, last night, and it was particularly poor.
I know that recent from can be irrelevant with Gordon Elliot horses (think of Outlander !) – but I still couldn’t bring myself to support him without having some idea on why he might perform better today.

And I paid the penalty for that. As he travelled sweetly throughout and was an easy winner.
If you took out his 2 runs this season, he would have been a 2/1 shot – I think I missed one there…

TVB.

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