Daily write-up - Dec 23rd

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle.

For a Saturday, things are relatively quiet – but that’s because of what sits on the horizon !

From Tuesday onwards, there will be an incessant onslaught of top quality racing – today is just the aperitif !

And in fairness, it’s not a bad aperitif, with some decent racing at both Ascot and Haydock.

It wasn’t hard to find a few possible tips – the tricky bit was deciding which ones to go with  - and then issuing them at a time when you all have a chance of getting on.

I feel the latter point is something that needs properly addressing – though it might have to wait until next season !

As an aside: I won’t be producing a review, after racing today…

I’m out tonight – and setting off immediately after the final race on the Ascot card.

I’ll therefore look to produce the review of todays racing, at some point tomorrow…

With regard to todays tips: then I eventually ended up with 6 of them – spread across 4 races.

Hopefully I honed in on the right ones !

Here’s the rationale for the tips – plus my thoughts on the days other big races…

Ascot

12:40 I was hoping to tip One of Us in this.

I picked him out on the mid week blog, when he made his seasonal debut at Taunton last month.

There were only 7 runners that day – and he didn’t really settle.

With that run under his belt – and a bigger field today, I can see him going well.

He was a general 10/1 shot yesterday evening – 12/1 in places.

However, he was down to 7/1 first thing this morning – and in a competitive 15 runner novice handicap, that’s too short.

Forgetthesmalltalk and Christmas in April, are two obvious looking dangers: whilst This is It and Miss Yeats are two slightly less obvious ones.

There has also been a lot of money for Now McGinty – and this is the kind of race, where such support could be easily be significant…

1:50 I tipped Un Beau Roman, on his most recent outing at Cheltenham, and I’m staying loyal to him today.

He didn’t run at all badly in that race – and has been dropped 3lb in the ratings as a result of it.

He’s now very well handicapped, on a mark 5lb lower than his last winning mark – and with conditions, to suit today, he’s hard to ignore at around 16/1…

It’s a similar story with Rock on Rocky…

He also ran in the Cheltenham race – and finished a place in front of Un Beau Roman.

He’s 1lb worse off a the weights today – but strictly on the book, that should still mean that he finishes in front of Un Beau Roman.
It rarely works out quite like that – but there certainly shouldn’t be much between the pair.

Rock on Rocky followed up that run, by finished second to Overtown Express at Newbury.

That was a very decent effort - as the winner appeared massively improved.

Rock on Rocky still managed to finish in front of the likes of Theinval and Dream Bolt – and the latter named should struggle to reverse the form today, on worse terms…

Of the others, then Pougne Bobbi is a potential danger – though he is short enough in the betting for a horse who has quite a lot to prove.

Mr Medic is the other one of major interest.

He was an eye catcher last time at Newbury – and there is no reason why he won’t run well today.

I just slightly prefer the chances of Un Beau Roman and Rock on Rocky – and you have to draw the line somewhere !

2:25 I’d love to see Lil Rockerfeller win this – though I’m not sure that he will.
I am pretty sure that he’ll run his usual game race – but there is a distinct possibility that he’ll find one or two too good for him.

Which ones they will be, is not as easy to say.

Obviously, Unowhatimeanharry sets the standard – and whilst I doubt he’s getting any better, he’s still probably good enough to win.

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start to deteriorate relatively soon – it’s just whether that deterioration will begin today…

I doubt L’Ami Serge will win – though I don’t doubt that he will look as if he might – and he could easily go close.

Thomas Campbell, Sam Spinner and The Worlds End are all very difficult to assess, as they are all moving up to this grade.

I like the last named best – but it’s impossible to know whether he will be up to this grade.

If the ground was very soft, then both Agrapart and Taquin de Seuil would also have real chances.

However, I suspect it is likely to be riding a bit too quick for them…

Bearing in mind our Stayers hurdle ante-post position on Lil Rockerfeller, then I hope that either he wins – or Unowhatimeanharry wins (as the 2 are quite closely linked).

I also think that is the most likely scenario – which is obviously good !

However, there is a chance that one of 3 ‘new kids’ improve sufficiently to shake things up.

It’s a fascinating race – and one in which I’m quite happy to just take a watching brief and cheer on Lil Rockerfeller, simply as a fan of the horse.

3:00 This looks a really strong race – but there are reasons for opposing all of the runners and I think it’s worth taking a small chance on Regal Encore.

He won the corresponding race 12 months ago – appearing out of the fog to mow down Minella Daddy on the run in (no, I’m not bitter about it !).

He runs off a mark 6lb higher this afternoon – though I doubt that will make much difference.

He’s not the most consistent of horses – but he does have some very good runs in him, as he showed last time out, when finishing third in the ‘Hennessy’.

That is handicap form of the highest order – and if he’s in the same mood today, he will go very close.

He has a marked liking for Ascot – and I like the fact that he’s reunited with Barry Geraghty.

At 14/1, he’s worth a small play…

Of the others, then the worry with Singlefarmpayment (apart from the fact he’s arriving on the back of a fall), is that his best form has been at Cheltenham; Go Conquer looked brilliant last time at Ascot – but is 9lb higher today (and may be found out by the softer ground).

I was half tempted by On Tour – but the combination of ground and trip, may prove too much for him; whilst the step up in class could be the issue for Walk in the Mill…

Frodon is quite interesting; whilst at a huge price, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Icing on the Cake, run a big race.

3:35 I think it is worth taking a chance on Veinard in this.

He’s a horse who has threatened to win a big handicap for a little while – and hopefully today will be the day when he finally delivers.

He got pretty close at Fairyhouse, last spring, when chasing home Thomas Hobson - and a reproduction of that form, will make him hard to beat today.

He tends to travel very well in his races – though I wouldn’t recommend counting your winnings until he has actually passed the post !

His win record of 1 from 21 isn’t great – and that persuaded me to put him up each way.

I’m pretty sure he will run well – and it’s distinctly possible that he will look as if he’s going to win.
The tricky bit will be for Denis O’Regan to get his head in front, where it matters…

O’Regan is actually a very interesting jockey booking.
Veinard is his only ride on the card – and Jack Kennedy is over riding Hunters Call in the same race.

I’m not quite sure how to read that, as Kennedy rides most of Gordon Elliot’s horses.

Veinard does require a certain amount of finessing and that’s something which O’Regan is particularly good at.

Hopefully that’s the way Gordon Elliot is viewing things !

That said, the jockey booking for Hunters Call has persuaded me to also get him on side…

He is debuting for Olly Murphy today – having previously been trained in Ireland by John Neillan.

Murphy has been doing incredibly well in his rookie season – and this definitely looks like a plot.

Whether Hunters Call will be good enough to pull it off, remains to be seen – but I do think he is worth a small risk, to find out…

Away from those two, then there are plenty in the race, worthy of consideration.

That said, I would be concerned that the recent wins of Elgin, Verdana Blue and Silver Streak, may have resulted in them becoming a bit high in the weights: whilst I can’t see it as a positive for Charlie Parcs, that Barry Geraghty is on Bleu et Rouge (and I don’t particularly fancy him).

I could see the 2 Seamus Mullins horses: Fergall and Chesterfield, out running their odds – but suspect that neither will be quite up to winning.

Haydock

1:00 Despite the price (6/4), I did briefly consider tipping Cap Soleil in this…

She was a little disappointing last time – but there were mitigating circumstances – and I would expect her to bounce back today.

She seems to be very highly regarded by the Fergal O’Brien stable – and has decent form to back that up.

She should also be suited by todays step up in trip – and the heavy ground.

The only issue, is that she faces a couple of rivasl from big stables, who could be anything…

Dan Skelton saddles Molly the Dolly; whilst Willie Mullins sends over Court Artist (his only runner on the card).

It’s impossible to get a proper handle on either – so you are guessing as to how good they are.

My guess is that they won’t be as good as Cap Soleil – but guessing with a 6/4 shot seems a bit risky…

1:35 It was a little frustrating that I couldn’t tip Ubaltique last night…

He was a general 7/1 shot on the opening show – and represented some serious value at that price.

The 9/2 this morning is a much better reflection of his chance – and I’m hoping that even that, is on the generous side !

It’s certainly possible to argue a case for him being favourite…

He loves soft ground – and he loves Haydock – as his win over course and distance in January, testifies.

That came in a similar race to todays – and with him running from a mark 4lb higher.

He beat Pistol Park by 3 lengths that day – in receipt of 5lb.

Pistol Park has to give him 10lb this afternoon – and yet is 11/4 fav.

I appreciate that Pistol Park may have improved in the interim – but I still think that is wrong…

I am actually more fearful of Eamon an Cnoic.

He won over the course last time out – and definitely has potential for further improvement.

Half chance can be given to the 3 other runners – but it’s not possible to make as strong a case for them, as it is for Ubaltique.

The main concern with him, is his consistency.

However Donald McCain loves to have winners at Haydock – and I suspect that Ubaltique will be primed to run a very big race today...

2:10 Limited Reserve was a good winner of a similar race to this over course and distance, last time – and even though he is 8lh higher in the weights today, he still looks the one to beat.

The problem is, it’s a weak race, with only 5 runners – and he’s been installed a 4/5 fav.

He also has to carry a fair chunk of weight – and as a 4 year old, in very deep ground, that won’t be easy.

I wouldn’t be prepared to bet against him, because he looks better than the opposition - but conditions could prevent him from performing to his best…

2:45 I suspect this race can be reduced to 4 runners – which did make it potentially attractive to get involved with.

However, the 4 of interest, are the top 4 in the betting – and that makes finding an angle, very difficult.

My thought last night, was to side with Vic De Touzain and Three Faces West.
The former has James Bowen in the saddle – and should relish the heavy ground; whilst the latter is the only ride on the card, for Richard Johnson.

However, I would be fearful of both Full Irish and Lake View Lad, as both are young horses, with plenty of scope for improvement.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vic De Touzain drift a little in the betting – and at a double figure price, he could be worth an each way interest.

He should run his race – and there must be a chance that one of the other 3, won’t…

The other one in the field, worthy of a mention, is Captain Redbeard.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run – and I tipped him last time, at Aintree.

He was caught out by the heavy ground that day – and it’s likely to be the same today.
Certainly, that coupled with a step up in trip, mean that I’ll be surprised if he gets home…

3:20 I possibly should have taken a risk on Chti Balko in this – but I didn’t and he has subsequently been very well backed.

I liked his run last time out, over todays course – but half a mile further.

He was too aggressively ridden that day – and after appearing to have his rivals in trouble on the turn in, he didn’t get home.

He may well get away with being ridden in a similar fashion over todays shorter trip.

What puts me off him however, is the fact that he has top weight of 11st12 – and has to give over 2 stone to his main rival, Cap du Nord.
That one was a good winner last time at Sandown – though todays heavy ground is an unknown for him.

Joke Dancer is the other one withy of consideration. Like Cap du Nord, he is unexposed – though he does have form on heavy ground…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Ascot 1:50 Un Beau Roman 0.5pt EW 16/1

Ascot 1:50 Rock on Rocky 0.5pt EW 12/1

Ascot 3:00 Regal Encore 0.5pt win 14/1

Ascot 3:35 Veinard 0.5pt EW 20/1

Ascot 3:35 Hunters Call 0.5pt win 14/1

Hayd 1:35 Ubaltique 2pt win 9/2

Mentions

Ascot 12:40 One of Us (O )

Ascot 2:25 Lil Rockerfeller (O )

Hayd 1:00 Cap Soleil (P )

Hayd 2:10 Limited Resource (C )

Hayd 2:45 Vic de Touzain (O )

Hayd 3:20 Chti Balko (C )