Daily write-up - Dec 16th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham Doncaster and Hereford in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It’s the second day of the International meeting at Cheltenham and we’ve now got a better idea on the state of the ground.

The official description suggests its on the soft side of good – and that’s how it seemed to be riding yesterday (which was quicker than I expected).

It looked to be riding a touch faster at Doncaster – which again was as expected.

Hereford had to survive an early inspection this morning and the ground there is described as soft – and I am hoping it will be no better than that !

I’ve ended up with 3 tips on the day, spread across the 3 UK meetings.

Here is my rationale for those tips – plus my thoughts on the days other big races…

Cheltenham

12:10 Needless to say, I’ll be keeping a close eye on Apples Shakira in this.

I tipped her at 20/1 for the Triumph hurdle just before her debut victory over todays course, last month – and she was so impressive that day, she was immediately promoted to favourite for the big race, at 4/1.

Connections continue to make very positive noises about her – and it will be a huge shock (and disappointment !) if she is beaten today.

Based on form/ratings she is well clear of her 3 rivals – so hopefully Barry Geraghty will simply be able to steer her round for another bloodless victory !

12:45 It’s quite possible that Geraghty will ride the first 2 winners on the Cheltenham card, as Movewiththetmes looks the one to beat in this.

He was very decent over hurdles (rated 146) and he could be even better over fences.

Certainly there was little wrong with his debut effort over todays course, behind Finians Oscar (despite that one disappointing last Saturday).

On official ratings, Moveiwththetimes only has 3lb in hand of Kalondra – and that one could prove a tough rival.
As too could Jameson – despite the fact he is rated 4lb inferior to Movewiththetimes and has to give him 5lb.

That’s a big ask – but Jameson has impressed on his 3 runs over fences and will almost certainly try to use his fencing experience to apply pressure to the others.

Movewiththetimes is the most likely winner – but he’s a shade of odds on and there is no margin in that price.

1:20 I’m not sure that the ground will be soft enough for Sire de Grugy, Gino Trail or Grey Gold in this: whilst it remains to be seen if Theo is up to the class…

Pearls Legend will have his work cut out to win a race of this nature from 6lb out of the handicap; whilst Bentelimar has plenty to prove, dropping back in trip on  his second run for Charlie Longsdon.

As a consequence, Bun Doran and Knockgraffon look to be the 2 to focus on…

Bun Doran looks the most likely winner – but he is making his seasonal debut and has Ciaran Gethigns in the saddle.

I’ve nothing against him, but I would have preferred to see Tom George’s stable jockey, Adrian Heskin riding (as it shows greater intent).

Knockgraffon is having his first run for Olly Murphy, having moved stable from Dan Skelton.

Murphy is an up-and-coming trainer – but I still struggle to see it as a positive, that he’s left Skelton.

That said, the application of first time tongue tie and cheek pieces is interesting – as is the booking of Richard Johnson.

It’s not an easy race to call, with a question mark (or two !) over all of the runners.

Ignoring prices, I would nominate Bun Doran as the most likely winner – but 11/4 is a tight enough price.

The value call is Knockgraffon – though I do think the market will guide on him, so he’s not one I really want to be siding with, just because he represent theoretical value !

1:55 I’m hoping that Foxtail Hill will get an uncontested lead in this race – and if he does, then he could prove hard to pass…

That’s already happened twice at this course: firstly back in January (when I tipped him !); and more recently on his seasonal debut, in October.

On the second occasion, it was over 2 miles – and he tenaciously fended off the late challenge of Le Prezien.

That one takes him on again tomorrow – and is actually 1lb worse off for a neck beating.
More than that, he’s half the price of Foxtail Hill – now work that one out !

Ofcourse, I’m being selective with the facts there, as the 2 of them met again, on their most recent outing in the Betvictor Gold cup.
Le Prezien comfortably gained his revenge on Foxtail Hill that day – but I don’t think Foxtail Hill ran to form.
The reason for that was because he was harried on front end, from very early in the race – and ultimately had nothing left to give when the race began in earnest.

There are no other confirmed pace sources in the race tomorrow, so I’m optimistic that the race will be run more along the lines of the October one.

Ofcourse, this is anything but a 2 horse race.

Splash of Ginge and Starchitect finished first and second in the Betvictor Gold cup – and both have got good chances again today.

Also from that race, both Ballyalton and Romain de Senam should do better on the likely quicker ground.

And I’ve still not mentioned the 2 potentially biggest dangers of them all !

On lines through Whisper, Clan des Obeaux could be a very well handicapped horse – despite the fact he has to carry top weight.
However, he is only 5 – and I’ve always thought him better on a flat track and soft ground.

I guess we will find out this afternoon !

The other potentially major danger in the race, is Kings Odyssey.

He’s a very difficult one to assess – but was hugely impressive when winning a decent race over todays course, nearly 2 years ago.

We’ve not seen a lot of him since then – but the feeling has always been that he had a good race in him.
Again though, my reservation would be with the ground, as he also looks like he wants it very soft.

Clearly this won’t be easy for Foxtail Hill.

However, if he does get the run of the race – and if Jamie Bargary can judge things to a tee – then it’s likely to take a big performance from one of his rivals, to pass him…

2:30 This is not a race in which I have a strong view...

Equus Secretus and Count Meribel appear the 2 to focus on – but they are also the 2 at the head of the betting.

Of the 2, I would have a preference for Equus Secretus – as he seems to have achieved more and yet receives 3lb from his main rival.

That said, these races are very difficult to assess – as they are mainly about improvement, rather than form in the book.

The other one of interest, is Global Stage – though he will need to improve for the step up in trip (which he very well may do).

He is probably the value play in the race, at around 7/1…

3:05 If I had complete confidence in the state of the ground, I would tip My Tent of Yours in this…

Maybe I should have more conviction over what my eyes told me – but there were plenty of jockeys and trainers saying the ground was riding soft at Cheltenham yesterday.

Ofcourse it’s all a relative thing – and it certainly wasn’t as soft as I expected – but maybe it will prove to soft for MTOY.

If that’s not the case, I think he’ll win – and 5/1 is a very decent price.
He holds The New One of lots of pieces of form – so it’s more a question of whether he is fully tuned up.

I actually don’t think that will be an issue – he’s 10 now and hasn’t got many big days left in him. I’m pretty sure Nicky Henderson will have him spot on.
It therefore all comes down to the ground – plus the possibility that Melon is a very good horse (which he could be).

I’d be prepared to take a risk on Melon, as he will need to be virtually Champion hurdle class, to give a peak from MTOY 6lb – but I can’t quite bring myself to take a risk on the ground as well…

I’ll be very surprised if the race isn’t won by one of the big 3 – as the 4 others aren’t of the same class.

3:40 This looks a really competitive race – and not one that I have a particularly strong view on.

I can see cases for all of the market leaders: with Momella and Lady Karina looking worthy market leaders.

That said, they will have to be good to fend of the likes of Brillare Momento, Oscar Rose, Lamanver Odyseey and Molly Childers.

The trouble is, all I’ve done there, is list the top 6 in the betting !

At a really big price, Sainte Ladylime catches my eye.

I suspect she has more talent than she has demonstrated - but her jumping keeps letting her down.

That was the case last time over fences, when I fancied her at Haydock – but it was a similar story on a few occasions last season, even over hurdles.

If everything does click for her, I can see her running much better than her odds suggest (she can be backed at 28/1).

Doncaster

1:05 I like the look of Markov in this.

He impressed me on his chasing debut at Fontwell – and this looks a relatively weak race.

Poker School looks the one to beat – but provided Markov gets round without incident, I think he will have his measure.
However, him getting round without incident is not guaranteed…

He was a bit sketchy over a few of the jumps at Fontwell – and he will need to have learnt from that.

I would have taken a risk on him in a better ace, at a bigger price – but he just doesn’t strike me as the sort you should be backing at 7/4 (for all he may win !)

1:40 Flying Tiger is another who I would like to be tipping at a bigger price, in a better race.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Wincanton, before finishing third in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth at Newcastle.
That run seems to have alerted people to his chances, which is a shame.

He was put in a shockingly short price last night (9/4) – and whilst he has drifted to 3/1 this morning, I would want at least 7/2 before getting involved.
That’s because he faces some decent rivals.

The next 5 in the betting can all be given a chance – and even though I make Flying tiger just about the most likely winner, that makes the race too competitive to be taking a short price in.

2:10 I don’t have a particularly strong opinion on this race…

Braqueur D’Or finished fourth in the ‘Hennessy’ last time – and that is very strong handicap form.

He certainly sets the benchmark – though Keeper Hill and Rocklander (in particular) are promising sorts with plenty of potential.

Tactics and jumping may prove key, with no obvious front-runner – and inexperienced novices.

I couldn’t recommend a bet in the race – but 7/4 about Braqueur D’Or seems fair enough…

2:45 This appears to be a 2 horse race, between We Have a Dream and Act of Valour.

The former won on his UK debut, having previously been successful over hurdles in France: whilst the latter won on his hurdling debut, having been decent on the flat in Ireland.

I slightly prefer the claims of the former – but it’s guesswork.

What I would really like to see, is a big run from Eragon De Charney.

He didn’t see which way Apples Shakira went last time, so if he runs well today, it will be a nice boost for her chances in the Triumph hurdle…

3:20 I was really taken by Solstice Son on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham last month – and despite the fact that this is a very competitive race, I think he is worth chancing, at a big price.

In fairness, the race last time wasn’t as strong as todays – but it was still a decent contest and Solstice Son lead the field, jumping from fence to fence, until he ran out of steam.

He should be much straighter from that run – and if he is ridden with a little more restraint, on a track which puts far less demands on stamina, I would expect him to last home.

That said, even if David Noonan gets his fractions spot on, this won’t be easy…

Virgilio, Kilcrea Vale and Ballyboley, will all be tough to beat – whilst outsiders, Vibrato Voltat, Killala Quay and Mustmeetalady, can be given a chance of sorts.

In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Solstice Son run a great race – and get collared on the run in (in a very TVB kind of way !).

Hence, I’ve put him up EW.

Obviously, I hope that he simply shows his rivals a clean pair of hooves – but I somehow doubt it will be that straightforward.

Vibrato Voltat is obviously one which I particularly concerned about, as I’ve tipped him the last twice he has run.
However, he is stepped up in trip to 3 miles today – and I’m not convinced that will suit.
I can see him travelling well – so he could make a decent in running play - but when push comes to shove, I suspect he will be found wanting.

Suffice to say, if his stamina does last out, he is handicapped to go very close.

Hereford

12:55 A quick mention for Vision des Flos in this…

He was an eye catcher on his seasonal debut at Chepstow, 2 runs ago – before disappointing next time at Cheltenham.

However, both of those races were Grade 2 events – and he drops into novice company today.
He is likely to be different class to his rivals – hence his price of 1/2 !

It’s also interesting to note that Bryan Cooper travels to Hereford, for the one ride.

He faces a couple of fair looking rivals – but there will be some long faces if he’s beaten…

2:40 I didn’t expect to be tipping at Hereford today – but this is a decent race (class 2) – and I think that Rayvin Black has a very good chance of winning it…

There are two reasons for that: firstly he has a marked preference for soft (ideally heavy ground) – and his 2 main market rivals have the opposite requirement: and secondly, he’s the only front runner in a 5 horse race – and provided Thomas Garner can get his fractions right, he should prove very difficult to pass…

Rated as high as 149, a couple of seasons back, he’s arguably not been at his peak for a little while.
That said, he showed in February that he’s still capable of smart form, when runner up to subsequent Champion hurdle winner, Buveur D’Air.

The winner won very easily that day – but Rayvin Black still gave a 10 length beating to the 160 rated Irving.

That form can’t be taken literally (as it suggests he has 30lb in hand of his mark !) – but it does show what he’s capable of, granted the right conditions…

Hopefully he will get those this afternoon – and Garner won’t set fractions which make him a sitting duck up the home straight !

The result will inevitably rely to an extent on jockey tactics – and that does make me slightly nervous.

However, Garner knows the horse very well – and has ridden him appropriately in the past, so fingers crossed it all drops into place again this afternoon !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 1:55 Foxtail Hill 1pt win 14/1

Here 2:40 Rayvin Black 2pt win 11/4

Donc 3:20 Solstice Son 0.5pt EW 16/1

Mentions

Chel 1:20 Dun Boran (C )

Chel 2:30 Equus Secretus (P )

Chel 3:05 My Tent or Yours (C )

Chel 3:40 Sainte Ladylime (S )

Don 1:05 Markov (P )

Don 1:40 Flying Tiger (P )