There are 4 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Doncaster
and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.
In
truth, there has been little to get excited about, racing-wise, during January –
but there can be no complaints regarding today fixtures…
It’s
festival trials day at Cheltenham – and whilst there is always the danger it
might be an anti-climax, that’s certainly not the case today.
Only
time will tell what bearing todays races have on March – but as contests in the
their own right, almost every race is up to scratch.
Over
at Doncaster, it’s Skybet chase day.
Again, not only does the big race deliver – but there are
also some very good supporting contests.
As
is so often the case, the state of the ground is the big
imponderable…
There has been rain at Cheltenham this morning – which
falling on ground already described as ‘soft’, could result in very heavy
conditions, by the off.
Conversely, at Doncaster, it has been dry – and the going
is likely to be edging towards good.
Finding horses capable of handle the underfoot conditions
at both courses, is likely to be key…
Away
from the days 2 main meetings, the cards at Uttoxeter and Fairyhouse aren’t
bad.
However there is nothing running at either course which
has compelled me to switch my attention.
The
write-up is therefore focused on the 2 big meetings – where I eventually managed
to find 6 tips.
Here’s the rationale behind them – plus my thoughts on
most of the other races.
Cheltenham
12:40 I tipped Apples Shakira for the Triumph
hurdle back in November, and she has her final prep for the race today.
Hopefully she will come through the test unscathed: the
betting certainly suggests she should – as she’s a best price of 1/5.
In
truth, she’s on a hiding to nothing – and she isn’t going to prove anything if
she wins.
However, I can understand that connections want to keep her ticking
over – and hence are keen to run.
Another wide margin stroll will do nicely !
1:15 This is an unusual race, in so much as I can
see reasons for opposing the top 3 in the market…
Both
Mister Whitaker and Sizing Tennessee may struggle to cope with very soft ground;
whilst Ballyandy’s current handicap mark of 145, means that if he wins (or even
runs well), he will rule himself out of a crack a the novice handicap chase at
the festival.
Hardly an incentive to put your best foot forward
!
In
the circumstances, I feel it’s a race that you should have a crack at – and I’ve
decided to opt for outsider, Solstice Star…
He
actually ran second to Mister Whitaker at Carlisle, back in November – and
re-opposes today on 10lb better terms, for a 2 length beating.
Strictly on the book, that should be sufficient to turn
round the form.
In
fairness, I don’t think it will necessarily be that straightforward, as Mister
Whitaker is a progressive type – all the same, it does suggest that Solstice
Star is value, at 5 times the odds !
Solstice Star is also a dual course winner – and proven
in heavy ground, so he should have no issue with todays conditions.
Those wins were over hurdles – and he hasn’t looked quite
as good over fences – but it is still relatively early days for him.
I do
like the fact that he is trained by Martin Keighly – as he targets his horses at
Cheltenham.
It’s
also very interesting to note that the horse has undergone a breathing operation
since his last run…
Of
the others, then I was most interested in Full Irish – and did briefly consider
splitting stakes on him.
However, I eventually decided to keep all of my eggs in
the Solstice Star basket.
Let’s hope he rewards my decision !
1:50 There is a definite chance that this race
might no be as competitive as the numbers suggest.
Most
of the runners, are fairly exposed – and the handicapper knows pretty much were
he has them.
The
exceptions to that statement, are the novices, Coo Star Sivola, Arctic Gold and
Ballyhill – plus Casse Tete and Drumlees Sunset.
I
expect the race to be won by one of the quintet.
Coo
Star Sivola is the most likely – but he has been well found in the betting and
there is no value in a quote of 7/2.
Ballyhill is quite interesting, as he won a similar race
at the last Cheltenham meeting and is only 5lb higher today. 7/1 is a perfectly
fair price about him.
That
said, I prefer the chances of his stable companion Arctic Gold – and he was
available at double that price.
He
has only run 4 times over fences – but has performed with credit on each
occasion.
He
will relish todays soft ground – and Tom Humphries in the saddle, claiming 7lb,
means that he will be carrying just 9st 11lb.
He
has won over hurdles, off a mark higher than the one he races off today.
In
short, he has an excellent chance.
The
big question mark, is his jumping over the Cheltenham fences in a competitive
field – but if that holds up, I do think that he’s the one to beat.
The
other 2 of potential interest, are Casse Tete and Drumless Sunset.
However,
both showed nothing on their most recent runs – and whilst there were mitigating
circumstances (seasonal debuts) they would be hard ones to back, without at
least seeing some market support.
If
that does materialise, then they are worth saving stakes on (at
least).
2:25 In some respects, I can understand the
opposition to Bristol de Mai in this…
Whilst officially speaking he’s the best horse in the
race, all of his best performances have come at Haydock – and Haydock is a very
different track to Cheltenham.
That
said, he has recorded decent form elsewhere – most notably when winning the
Charlie Hall chase at Wetherby on his seasonal debut.
He
beat Defintly Red by 23 lengths that day – and he opposes today on 2lb worse
terms. It’s hard to see him reversing the form…
And
in truth, just on the Wetherby form, Bristol de Mai deserves to be favourite for
this – particularly as he will relish the soft ground.
However, we know he is capable of performing much better
than at Wetherby – the question is whether he is capable of performing much
better at Cheltenham…
If
he’s not, then this is a hard race to call.
Tea
for Two sets a fair standard – and American still has potential for
improvement.
On
ratings, The Last Samurai also has a chance – though I’m not convinced by his
claims.
In
truth, I can’t really see a bet in the race.
I briefly considered Tea for Two
– but it’s not the ideal test for him.
What
I do think is worth considering, is an ante-post bet on Bristol de Mai for the
Gold cup – NRNB.
He
can be backed at 25/1 with B365 and WH (who are kind of NRNB !).
If
he wins today, he could be disputing favouritism: if he gets beaten, connections
may well decide that he can’t operate on an undulating track and swerve the race
completely.
3:00 Nicky Henderson sets a poser in this race by
running 2 unexposed horses – both of whom are considered very good.
Nico
de Boinville rides Pacific De Baume suggesting he is the better of the pair –
but time will tell.
My
only observation would be, that if they are that difficult to split, they are
unlikely to be world beaters…
Mulcahys Hill has the best form in the race, courtesy of
his second in the Grade 1 Challow hurdle.
Furthermore, my feeling is that he should have won that
race, as Adrian Heskin committed him for home too far out – and he simply acted
as a target for the very game Poetic Rhythm.
The
interesting thing about Mulcahys Hillis that not only does he have the best form
in the race – he also has plenty of scope for improvement.
The
Challow was only his second run over hurdles - and I suspect there s plenty of
improvement left in him.
In
fairness, that’s probably true about most of this rivals – though whether they
will be able to reach his level, is a different matter.
Of
the others, then Slate House and Tikkanbar have both shown themselves very
useful – but each have to deal with a 5lb penalty, and that won’t be
easy.
Black Op is the other one of interest, as he has a lot of
potential.
However, he doesn’t have the form of Mulcahys Hill – and
is a similar price.
It’s
not the type of race I would normally get involved with – but I do think
Mulcahys Hill should be favourite and therefore at 5/1, he is worth a modest
interest.
3:35 I feel a certain obligation to remain loyal
to Colin’s Sister in this…
I
tipped her last time, on New Years day, and I felt at the time, she was the
strongest tip that I’d issued all season.
I
was therefore very disappointed that she could only finish third – and based on
that run, she has little chance of beating Wholestone today.
However, she had comfortably beat him when the pair
clashed at Wetherby in November – so things aren’t quite as straightforward as
they initially appear.
I
suspect a big factor in her performance, was the form of the Fegal O’Brien
yard.
It
was on fire in November – but he hasn’t saddled a winner since New Years
day…
In
truth, that is a concern – and is why I have kept stakes to a
minimum.
However, I’m sure he will return to form soon – and today
would be a very good day on which to do so !
In
truth, this is not a 2 horse race.
Finians Oscar returns to hurdles today, having
disappointed over fences, so far this season.
He
looked a potential world-beater last season - so if he can recapture his form,
he will be hard to beat.
Beer
Goggles, Thomas Campbell, The Worlds End and Agrapart are the 4 others of
interest.
However, I suspect the ground may catch out Thomas
Campbell and the distance, Agrapart.
Conditions should be fine for both Beer Goggles and The
Worlds End – the question is simply whether they are good enough…
They
may be – but I’m not sure they are any better than Wholestone – and I’m hoping
Colin’s Sister will have his measure !
4:10 I was hoping that Le Partriote might slip
under the radar in this and I would be able to tip – but that hasn’t
happened…
In
fact, the opposite is true and everyone seems to have latched on to him
!
He’s
down to 5/2 now – which in a competitive 12 runner handicap seems like a crazy
price.
The
thing about him, is that he may be much better than his current mark.
He’s
only run once in the UK – in the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton, 2 weeks
ago.
He
travelled really powerfully that day – but didn’t get home.
He
may have needed the run – whilst a half mile drop in trip could also
help.
I
can see him going very close this afternoon – though there are a few
worries…
The
race was only 2 weeks ago: and we are guessing on why he didn’t see out his race
(he may possibly have a breathing issue, for example).
In truth, it’s not the
most competitive of races – and it’s hard to see beyond the top half dozen in
the betting.
I would certainly have taken a risk on him at around 4/1 – but
you do need something in the price, when there are question marks.
That
said, connections are likely to know whether he is up to the job, so I wouldn’t
be surprised to see him backed even shorter, if they do fancy him.
Doncaster
12:55 Just a quick mention for Miles to Milan, in
this…
He
makes his debut for Olly Murphy, having previously been trained by Philip
Hobbs.
He’s
not run for over a year – but showed distinct promise as a novice, when running
for Hobbs.
Murphy did us a big favour when getting Hunters Call to
win at Ascot, just before Christmas – and I wouldn’t be surprised if he managed
to do the same here.
Certainly the booking of Davy Russell takes the eye –
though maybe not too surprisingly, the bookmakers have been very defensive in a
quote of 4/1.
He’s
still likely to be backed, if connections fancy him…
1:30 This really should be a cake walk for Sceau
Royale, who is rated at least 15lb superior to his 3 rivals – and has been
targeted at the race.
He
has to concede 5lb to them all – but that’s because he won the Grade 1 Henry
VIII novice chase, on his most recent outing.
As a
result of that victory, he is second favourite for the Arkle – and it will be a
surprise if he is beaten this afternoon.
That
said, he wouldn’t want the ground too soft – so that is something to bear in
mind.
On
soft ground, I might actually have been tempted to take him on with Adrian du
Pont.
He
would relish such conditions – and I thought he ran well last time, until fading
close home.
He
drops in trip today – and if ridden forcefully, I could see him give Sceau Royal
something to think about.
However, Shantou Rock also likes to lead – so there
is a chance that he and Adrian du Pont could just set things up for Sceau
Royal…
Whatever, I would expect there to be a very strong pace –
probably set by Shantou Rock, with Adrian du Pont tracking.
Whether the two of them will be able to break Sceau
Royal, is a different matter – but it should be an interesting race to
watch…
2:05 This is another interesting race – but a very
difficult one to call.
Indian Call heads the market – despite the fact he has
only run once under rules – winning a novice hurdle at Ludlow.
However, he is clearly held in high regard by Nicky
Henderson, so whilst his form currently doesn’t amount to much, I’m not sure I’d
want to take him on !
The
Kim Bailey trained Station Master is second favourite – and he’s looked good
winning his last 2 races, at Warwick and Southwell.
Whether he is up to this class, is anyone’s guess – and
he’s apparently got a preference for good ground, so that’s another potential
concern.
If I
were to get involved with the race, I would probably side with Samuel
Jackson.
He
won at 100/1 on his rules debut at Taunton, before following up, at a slightly
shorter price, at Bangor !
Again, you have to guess on the strength of the form –
but his low key connections mean that he is likely to be a longer price than he
should be.
2:40 I think Marias Benefit is worth taking on in
this…
On
official ratings, she has at least 10lb in hand of all of her rivals – but I
think her official rating is questionable…
It
was achieved on her most recent run at Taunton, when she destroyed an
uncompetitive field, on desperate ground.
The
handicapper saw fit to raise her mark 16lb for that win – which strikes me as a
bit rash…
Prior to that run, she was rated 136 – and based on that,
she would only have a fair chance in this contest…
Certainly she will find conditions today very different
from at Taunton: whilst the presence of Dame Rose, means that she may not get an
uncontested lead…
In
fact, there is a chance that the 2 of them will get into a pace battle – though
with Davy Russell riding Dame Rose, I’ll be a little surprised if that does
happen (he’s far too canny !)
In
fact, I did consider tipping Dame Rose, mainly because I could see Davy finding
a way to get her home in front.
However, I think that the prevailing good
ground will suit Irish Roe better.
She
will also benefit from a strong pace – so in short, conditions appear to be in
her favour.
She
has good course form – and her trainer has a ridiculously good strike rate
(though he does only train a few horses).
In
short, Irish Row had ticks in plenty of boxes – and in a race which may not be
as it initial appears, she is worth a small risk.
3:15 I’ve turned this race round and round – and
eventually decided to sit it out…
The
main issue is the favourite, L’Ami Serge.
He
is capable of hacking up – though he is no certainty to do so !
He’s
not run over fences for a while – and his handicap mark over hurdles is now 7lb
higher (and that doesn’t flatter him, in terms of pure ability).
There is no issue with his jumping, so it’s reasonable to
think he’s a very well handicapped horse.
However, he’s a horse who likes to do things on the
bridle – and that may not be easy to achieve.
What’s more, he is likely to be held up – and in big
field handicaps, that tends not to be a good thing.
In
fact, from a pure pace perspective, I did consider getting involved with
Wakanda.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him set out and try and make all –
and under an aggressive ride, he could easily break most of his
rivals.
The
trouble is, he’s unlikely to break L’Ami Serge – and could just end up making
himself a sitting duck…
Vibrato Voltat was the other one I considered.
He’s
a bit like L’Ami Serge, in that he likes to arrive on the bridle.
He
will also be held up – and there are doubts over his stamina.
Purely based on handicap marks and ability, he’s capable
of going very close – but whether he will run to that level, is a different
matter.
Half
chances can be given to quite a few of the others – so in a race where there are
a lot of question marks, I figured a watching brief was the best course of
action…
3:50 I’m pretty keen on Upsilon Bleu in this –
though unfortunately, it looks like a few others are as well !
He was an eye
catcher on his penultimate run at Ascot – and then ran really well at
Musselburgh on New Years day.
That
was in a similar race to todays – but over an extra half mile.
Upsilon Bleu
stays the longer trip – but is better over the minimum.
He
was also a little unlucky to run into a potential improver that day, in the
shape of Knockgraffon.
The pair of them pulled 4 lengths clear of Indian
Temple, and that is fair form…
Upsilon Bleu finished second in the same race 12 months
ago - and then followed that by winning todays race.
He
runs off exactly the same mark today – and should have little to fear from
Double Ws, as that one was beaten a length and a half and reopposes on a pound
worse terms.
Bigmatre is likely to be more of a danger today.
He’s
a novice on the up – and the form of his most recent win at Newbury, is
strong.
The
stable of Harry Whittington is also in good form – and it is worth considering
having a saver on him (unofficially !).
Of
the others, then I was happy to take on Foxtail Hill when Ginos Trail was in the
race – but the defection of the latter (due to the ground), means the former
could be dangerous, if he gets an uncontested lead.
Theo
is the other one worthy of a mention, with his lightweight and Sean Bowen in the
saddle.
He
will also appreciate good ground (assuming that’s how it rides).
On
balance though, with ticks in just about every box, I think it will take a good
one to beat Upsilon Bleu.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
Tips
Chel
1:15 Solstice Star 0.5pt win 22/1
Chel
1:50 Arctic Gold 1pt win 14/1
Chel
3:00 Mulcahys Hill 1pt win 5/1
Chel
3:35 Colin’s Sister 0.5pt win 11/1
Donc
2:40 Irish Roe 1pt win13/2
Donc
3:50 Upsilon Bleu 2pt win 5/1
Mentions
Chel
2:25 Tea for Two (C )
Chel
4:10 Le Patriote (P )
Donc
12:55 Miles to Milan (S )
Donc
1:30 Adrian du Pont (O )
Donc
2:05 Samuel Jackon (S )
Donc
3:15 Wakanda (O )
