Daily write-up - Dec 15th

There are 3 NH meetings taking place today: at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Bangor.

It’s the opening day of the 2 day ‘International’ meeting at Cheltenham – and it will be interesting to see how the ground rides…

As those of you who frequent the forum may have seen (I posted a picture !), Cheltenham was under a blanket of snow, at the beginning of the week.

That has now apparently melted – and there has been significant rain fall.

In total, the course has absorbed just under 2 inches (50mm) of water since the weekend  – yet the going is described as ‘soft – good to soft in places’.

Time will tell - but I would expect it to be demanding….

The combination of uncertainty over the ground – and some very open races – has caused me to tread easily with regard to tips today.

You should know me by now – if in doubt, take a watching brief !

In addition to Cheltenham there is also fair card at Doncaster.

If pressed, I could probably have found a selection or two there, as well. However, time is always at a premium – particularly on a Friday, with a big Saturday ahead…

Consequently, I’ve limited my preview to the Cheltenham races: here are my thoughts…

Cheltenham

12:10 Summerville Boy is a worthy favourite for this.

He’s got the best form in the book; plenty of scope for improvement – and receives weight from a couple of his more dangerous rivals.

The problem in a race like this, is that all of the runners have the potential to make big improvement – so it becomes a case of trying to guess which one will make most (and whether it will be sufficient to take them past the standard set by Summerville Boy – assuming he doesn’t improve by the same amount !).

Outside of the favourite, then I think that Lalor is the most interesting runner – and Davy Russell is a notable jockey booking.

That said, he is held on collateral form by Summerville Boy – so he wouldn’t be an easy one to recommend (via conventional means).

If there is to be a shock in the race, then Spice Girl looks the one most likely to cause it.

12:45 There are just the 4 runners in this – so again, it’s not particularly attractive as a betting contest.

If you took away the fences, then Sizing Tennessee would be by far the most likely winner – though he’s not easy to support on the back of two non completions (a fall and an unseat).

Todays small field and longer trip should help him – and if he jumps round cleanly, I’ll be surprised if he’s beaten…

If his jumping lets him down again, then it looks quite an open contest.

Tintern Theatre was an eye catcher last time, over todays course – and whilst I didn’t envisage him appearing next time in a race such as this, he does have a chance.

That said, I won’t be rushing to back him.

In truth, I won’t be rushing to back anything in the race.

I can see scenarios in which all 4 runners could come home in front – and the betting seems to have their respective chances about right…

1:20 Okotoks is the one who interests me most in this, on his debut for Fergal O’Brien.

Formally trained in Ireland by Tony Martin, the horse ran really well in a competitive handicap hurdle at Leopardstown last Christmas and whilst running from a mark 7lb higher today, he could still be fairly handicapped.

The issue is the price (7/2) – considering the amount of guesswork required.

In addition to it being his first run for the stable, he’s also not run since April.

He may well be primed to run for his life – but we have no way on knowing that and the betting is assuming he is (probably because Fergal O’Briens horses have been in tremendous form this season).

He looks like the sort who could drift, near the off – and at around 5/1, he would definitely be of interest…

In truth, this doesn’t look the strongest of races.

I’ll be surprised if Sea Wall is good enough to win: whilst Champagne City is likely to find the ground too testing.

Smaoineamh Ailann is an unknown quantity – but doesn’t appear particularly well handicapped: meaning that the biggest dangers to Okotoks are likely to be Ravens Tower and Attest.

I prefer the chances of the former, who hasn’t been harshly treated for his last time out win a Fontwell.

However, he does seem better suited to sharp tracks – and Cheltenham certainly doesn’t fall into that category !

1:55 This is an open looking race – but I like the chances of Twenty Eight Guns…

She was a very progressive mare, last season, winning 3 races and with her rating rising from 99 to 130.

She wasn’t up to defying the higher mark – but following a few defeats, she is now back to 122 – just 2lb higher than her last winning mark.

The suggestion is that she should be able to win off such a rating – particularly as she is still only 7 and therefore possibly still improving.

That argument was backed up by her last time out run at Wetherby, where she looked the most likely winner, turning into the home straight, but backed out of things over the final 2 fences.

There’s a chance that she needed that run – her second one back after her summer break. Also, that was a stronger race than todays, as she is reverting to mares only company.

I also think she will be better suited by todays conditions…

In short, she should run a big race – and I would expect her to be there, or thereabouts…

A case of sorts can be made for most of her rivals, with Ms Parfois looking the most dangerous.

However, she is half the price of Twenty Eight Guns and her chances don’t look that much better.

Twenty Eight Guns is certainty the value call in the race…

2:30 I tipped Southfield Theatre at Sandown last Saturday – and I did toy with tipping him again this afternoon…

That’s not because he ran with any promise last week – in fact, he ran particularly poorly !
But in a way, that’s what makes him interesting.

His run was almost too bad to be true – and the fact that Paul Nichols turns him out again, just 6 days later and sporting first time blinkers, makes you think that he views it the same way.
More than that, the horse has been dropped 3lb in the ratings – so if he were to wait a week, he could run off a lower mark.

It doesn’t all add up…

I think the key, is the race value – and the relatively weak field.

I’m sure that Nichols has just figured that it’s worth a risk, because the horse has the ability to win the race.

The only think that is stopping me form tipping him, is the state of the ground.
He’s a horse who prefers a decent surface – and I don’t think he’ll get that.
Ofcourse, I could be wrong – and the ground might be better than I expect. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t put anyone off supporting him…

Aside from him, I’m not particularly attracted to any of the runners.

As I said, this is a weak race for the prize on offer – and it’s hard to make a compelling case for any of the runners.

Wotzizname probably has least question marks over him – but makes very limited appeal at 5/2.

In fact, aside from Southfield Theatre, Abracadbra Sivola is the one who is most attractive.

He’s not been finishing his races – but has a tongue tie applied for the first time today.
If that makes a difference – I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run really well.

He could also have an uncontested lead – so may be a decent in running play (though connections have said he is likely to be held up today – which in the circumstances, strikes me as a bit odd).

3:05 There are some high class horses contesting this cross country race – headed by More of That, winner of the 2014 Stayers hurdle.
He’s been disappointing over fences – but I still didn’t expect to see him competing over the banks.

In truth it strikes me as an act of desperation – and I’ll be surprised if he features.

I’ll also be a little surprised if Tiger Roll takes to the course.

He won the 4 miler at last years festival – but doesn’t look like the kind of horse who will be suited to the unique demands of the cross country races.

Josies Oders, Kingswell Theatre and Cantlow look much more likely to be involved at the finish.

Josies Orders is the right favourite – but Kingswell Theatre showed a great attitude when winning over the course last month.
All this said, if he’d shown a bit more in his 2 runs this season, I would definitely have taken a chance on Bless the Wings.

He was runner up in the cross country chase at last years festival – and in the Irish Grand National back in April.

On that form he is definitely the one to beat – and the fact that Davy Russell is over to ride him, is particularly eye catching.

However, he has shown absolutely nothing on his 2 runs this season – and that makes him impossible to support.

If he is going to win, he’ll be backed, so make sure you keep an eye out for any late money.

3:40 I think it is worth taking a chance on Shantou Bob in this.

He’s a very talented horse – but he’s fragile too and the ground will need to be soft in order for him to perform at his best.

That said, if there isn’t sufficient give, then I would expect him to be withdrawn, so hopefully that won’t be an issue.

In pure handicapping terms, then his chance isn’t that obvious.

He won a decent race at Chepstow, last Christmas – but is 7lb higher now, and that’s plenty for a 9 year old to deal with.

However, he followed that up, by finishing fifth in the grade 2 Cleeve hurdle over today’s course and distance – and that is really strong form.

He was beaten just 13 lengths by Unowhatimeanharry that day – and simply, I don’t think that any of his rivals today, could manage that.

Ofcourse, he has to give all of them weight this afternoon – and there is the slight concern regarding the conditions – but he has the basic ability to win this race and that means he is worth siding with.

In addition to the form based argument, I also like the fact that cheek pieces are being reapplied today. He wore them for the first time, when he ran in the Cleeve hurdle.

I also like the booking of Richard Johnson – though he does seem to be riding a few of Warren Greatrexs horses, nowadays.

Aside from Shantou Bob, then most of the other runners can be given a chance...

Arthurs Gift is progressive; whilst both The Dutchman and Champers on Ice, ran well in a decent contest at Haydock, last month.

Rockys Treasure and Anteros, filled the paces behind Thomas Campbell at the November meeting: whilst Luccombe Down placed behind the same horse, back in October.

Cases can be made for all of the above  – and the other 4 runners in the race !

In short, if Shantou Bob doesn’t outclass his rivals, then no result would particularly surprise me…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 1:55 Twenty Eight Guns 1pt win 7/1

Chel 3:40 Shantou Bob 1pt win 16/1

Mentions

Chel 12:10 Summerville Boy (S )

Chel 12:45 Sizing Tennessee (C )

Chel 1:20 Okotoks (S )

Chel 2:30 Southfield Theatre (S )

Chel 3:05 Bless the Wing (C )