Daily write-up - Dec 26th

Boxing day/St Stephens day is the busiest day in the racing calendar – and there are 10 NH meetings taking place today, across the length and breadth of the British Isles.

The best quality meeting of the day – and by some margin – takes place at Kempton Park, where the feature is the 67^th running of the King George VI chase.

It really is a fascinating contest – but there has been overnight rain and consequently there is an element of guesswork, with regard to the state of the ground…

In truth, it’s not just the King George, that has been impacted by the rain – or indeed just Kempton – and as a consequence, non of todays racing can be tackled with complete confidence.

That’s a shame – but as we know too well, it happens – particularly at this time of year…

On a more positive note, today is the first day of a near weeks worth of quality racing – so I’m happy tread gently today and hopefully, I’ll be able to look to strike with more purpose later in the week, when we have greater clarity on conditions.

In terms of tips, then I’ve issued 6 small ones today, across 5 races – and there are also a batch of Mentions (some of which could be worth backing, when you have seen how the ground is riding).

Here is the rationale behind the tips – plus my thoughts on the days other big races…

Kempton

12:45 I was quite taken by Simply the Betts, when he made his hurdling debut at Newbury at the beginning of this month.

Receiving weight from his main rivals today, he is the most attractive option in this race – and 5/1 may not be a bad price.

It’s difficult to know for sure though, as most of the runners have considerable scope for improvement.

Consequently, it is probably a race best watched…

1:20 This looks a pretty open contest to me – and I think it is worth taking a small risk and dutching the 2 outsiders…

I was quite keen on Beggars Wish (I made him my Nap in the forum competition), when he last ran, at Sandown.

He disappointed that day – struggling with the big fences.

That was in an open handicap however, so back against novices today, his jumping may not be tested to the same extent.
He is also stepped up in trip by half a mile, which again should see less pressure on his jumping (as they will be going a bit slower).

Prior to the Sandown run, he has looked a horse on the up – and there’s a chance that he’s been too quickly dismissed here, on the back of that run.

The other one I’m of interest, is Bad Boy du Pouldu.

He’s run well on his 2 most recent outings, in reasonable novice handicap chases.
In fact, I think he was a little unlucky not to win at least one of them (neither race panned out in his favour).

As a consequence of running well, his mark has risen 6lb – and that’s never a good thing when you aren’t winning !

However, Bryony Frost has been booked today – and her claim offsets most of that rise.

In fact, her booking strikes me as quite significant, as I suspect that it’s the first time Gary Moore has utilised her services (I’m sure Chris will correct me if I’m wrong !).

I would hope that both horses will run well and in a race where all 8 runners can be given a chance of sorts, they strike me as the value options…

1:55 Assuming the ground isn’t too soft, then I think Mias Storm will take a lot of beating in this.

She’s unbeaten in her 2 chases – and has looked a natural over fences.

The form of her wins is also quite strong: she followed up a comprehensive defeat of Elegant Escape at Chepstow, with a really easy victory over much more experienced rivals, in a mares listed chase at Market Rasen.

Elegant Escape re-opposes her today – and whist he has since won at Newbury, I’ll be surprised if he manages to turn the table this afternoon.

I would view Ballytopic as Mias Storms biggest rival – but I’m far from convinced that he will be suited to the relatively tight Kempton track.

The other one worthy of a quick mention, is Some Invitation.

He’s the outsider of the field – but seems to be held in reasonable regard by Dan Skelton and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run better than his odds suggest (28/1).

That said, I think he will be doing very well to give 7lb to Mia’s Storm, who looks a fair bet – assuming underfoot conditions aren’t an issue…

2:30 There’s not a lot that can be said about this race: The New One is an admirable animal – but all he’s likely to do here, is give Buveur D’Air a tow into the race.

The latter was an impressive winner of last seasons Champion hurdle - and is a worthy favourite for this seasons running.

He isn’t ground dependant - and baring accidents should come home in front this afternoon.

It’s likely to take him around 4 mins to earn £70K – I suspect that even Neymar would get out of bed for that !

3:05 This really is a tremendous race.

Might Bite, Bristol de Mai, Thistlecrack, Fox Norton and Whisper.

All 5 have the natural ability to win a race of this quality – the question is, which one will come home in front this afternoon…

Assuming the ground is no worse than soft, I expect it to be Might Bite.

He’s a prodigious talent – and whilst he’s yet to prove himself out of novice company, his defeats of Whisper last season, leave little doubt, that he’ll be up to the job.

He’s also the only one of the 5,who’s had the perfect preparation for todays race – and I think that is as important as his natural ability…

He looks primed to give his biggest performance on his most suitable stage – and I doubt the others will be able to match him.

Second favourite is Bristol de Mai – and talented as he is, there can be little doubt that he needs heavy ground (and a flat track) to be at his best.

He’ll get the track – but I don’t think he’ll get the ground.

He is also running here, mainly because he won the Betfair chase (and connections are chasing the million pound bonus) – and that means he’s unlikely to be at the same peak as Might Bite….

Thsitelcrack won the corresponding race 12 months ago – and appeared to have the world at his feet.

However, an injury prior to Cheltenham, saw him miss the Gold Cup – and the remainder of last season.

Like Might Bite, he has been targeted at this race – however, he was disappointing on his seasonal debut over hurdles at Newbury.

If he needed that run and is still capable of performing at his optimum, then he could give Might Bite a real race – but there are question marks over him…

There are also question marks over Fox Norton – but they mainly concern his ability to get the trip.

I think he probably will – but this could end up a real test of stamina, which may not suit him.

I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him run very well – but he does have quite a lot to prove…

The final one of the big 5, is Whisper.

He’s looked an improved performer this season – and has run really well in both of his races this campaign.

The trouble with him is that he is comfortably held by Might Bite on their runs from last season – and todays race is a bit of an after thought for him.

I’ll be a little surprised if he is capable of winning…

In summary then: I see Might Bite as the most likely winner - provided the ground isn’t very soft.
If it is, then Bristol de Mai will become a serious rival.

Assuming it’s not, then I think Thistlecrack and possibly Fox Norton, represent the biggest dangers to Might Bite.

Though Whisper is the one most likely to run his race (aside from the favourite).

All in all, it should be a truly fascinating watch…

3:40 Midnight Maestro was an eye catcher on his most recent run at Ascot, and I think he is worth siding with in this.

In fact, I could be pretty keen on him – though I do have a couple of slight concerns…

In terms of the positives, then the case for him is based around his seasonal debut run, also at Ascot, at the beginning of November.

He ran is just about the hottest handicap hurdle of the season, that day.

He finished sixth, not beaten too far – and surrounded by horses who won, next time out.

One of those horses was Verdana Blue.

She finished just a neck in front of Midnight Maestro, so it was little surprise to see the 2 of them disputing favouritism, when they next ran (also at Ascot).
However, the 2 horses experienced very different fortunes in that race.
Midnight Maestro made a shocking mistake and nearly fell, at the very first flight: whilst Verdana Bleu cantered through the race and was a comfortable winner.

The 2 horses should really have finished along side each other, so it’s reasonable to think, that without the mistake Midnight Maestro would have gone close to winning.

As a result of the win, Verdana Blue’s handicap mark was raided by 8lb – but that didn’t stop her form running a big race when third in Saturdays Ladbroke.

Based on Verdana Blue, it is possible that Midnight Maestro has around 10lb in hand of his current mark – and that really should be sufficient to see him home in front this afternoon.

However, there are 2 concerns with him: firstly he is stepping up in trip by half a mile. Hopefully he will be able to handle that – but if the ground is soft, is will be a worry.
The second issue is the presence of Kildisart.

He’s an unexposed novice – and it’s possible to argue he is also a good few pounds ahead of his mark.

There are others in the race, for whom half cases can be made (the likes of Jaleo and Doesyourdogbite), but I’ll be a little surprised if one of the market principals doesn’t come home in front.

Leopardstown

1:15 This is the first of a couple of Graded events on the card – and whilst neither presents a betting opportunity for today, both are of interest with regard to our ante-post positions, with Apples Shakira and Brain Power.

This is a 4 year old hurdle race and the favourite, Espoir Dallen, is currently second favourite for the Triumph hurdle, behind Apples Shakira.

Despite having to give weight to all of his rivals today, Espoir Dallen, is still expected to win (he’s a 2/5 shot).

He may very well do so, but this doesn’t look a complete formality to me…

Mitchouka and Farclas are both trained by Gordon Elliott – and therefore need taking seriously.

Mitchouka is 3lb better off with Espois Dallen for a 4 length beating last time.
Strictly on the book, that should be sufficient to turn the tables – but the fact that Gordon Elliot is prepared to give it another shot, is interesting…

2:20 This is the second graded race on the card – and is even more interesting.

It sees current Arkle favourite Footpad, opposed by Death Duty.

Last season, when he was running over hurdles, Death Duty was considered a stayer – but there has been a U-turn on him this season, as connections have now decided that he doesn’t stay after all !

His most recent win, was in the Drinmore chase over 2m4f – and whilst he did that well enough, I didn’t expect to see him dropped further in trip, to the bare minimum.

If he does manage to beat Footpoad this afternoon, then there will be a big shake up in the ante-post market for the Arkle (and the JLT).

I don’t honestly think it will happen, as I expect Footpad to have too much speed for him.

He was hugely impressive on his chasing debut at Navan – and was borderline Champion hurdle class over hurdles last season.

I just don’t think  that Deathy Duty will be able to match that – unless the ground is bottomless (and I doubt that will be the case).
All the same, it should be anther fascinating race to watch…

2:55 I’m a little surprised that Lake Takapuna can be backed at 16/1 for this…

He won the corresponding race 12 months ago – and whilst he’s off a 4lb higher mark this afternoon, Shane Shortalls 3lb claim offsets most of that.

Furthermore, as he’s only a 6 year old, there must be a good chance that he’s still improving…

In fairness, he’s not demonstrated that to be the case, but he’s only run 3 times in the intervening period – and all 3 runs have been over a longer trip.

Furthermore, he didn’t run too badly at Leopardstown, back in January, behind A Toi Phil; whilst he had very little chance on his most recent run, in the Betvictor Gold cup at Cheltenham.

He should be at least capable of matching his run from 12 months ago, this afternoon – the question is whether that will be good enough to get him home in front…

That’s a harder one to be adamant on, as 3 relatively unexposed novices head the market (and explain why it’s possible to get a big price on Lake Takapuna).

Landofhopeandglory, Blast of Koeman and Calino D’airy are almost certainly the 3 to beat – but I think it is worth the risk of taking them on.

Certainly there has got be to a chance that they will struggle with the likely stronger pace of a big field handicap, compared to the small field novice chases that they’ve been competing in.

If that is the case, then I am hopeful that Lake Takapuna will be the one to take advantage.

Wincanton

1:30 Different Gravey was an eye catcher last time out at Newbury.
That was in a handicap chase and he was still travelling nicely when getting the cross fence (5^th last) wrong and unseating his rider.

He’s back over hurdles today – and has to run from a mark 7lb higher.

However, he has won from this mark in the past, so isn’t handicapped out of things.

I wouldn’t put anyone off having a small bet on him this afternoon – I just didn’t quite feel that he was worthy of tipping…

That’s mainly because it’s a very competitive race.

I think Persian Delight is the most likely winner – but at 4/1, he holds little appeal from a betting perspective.

Boite and Poker Play are 2 others who I could see running big races – but it the race looks a bit too open to get involved with.

2:05 This is another competitive race – but I think it is worth taking a chance on Abracadabra Sivola…

He caught my eye on his most recent run at Cheltenham.

That was partially because I felt he was ridden in a very strange fashion…

He’s a horse who tends to lead – but in a 5 horse horse, in which there was little pace, he was held up at the back.

That made no sense to me – and sure enough, he never moved out of last place…

However, the handicapper has realty played ball with him – and his mark has been dropped by 7lb.

That’s a lot – and it puts him on a mark from which he’s capable of wining (having spent the last year running form a mark from which he is not capable of winning).

I suspect that we will know our fate quite early with him, as if he’s going to run well, I expect him to race prominently.

He shouldn’t face a lot of opposition for the lead, so the question will be whether connections want to go after today’s prize – or if they want to try and get a few more pounds off his rating…

I honestly don’t know on that score – and by the time we do know, it will be too late for me to tip him !

My feeling was that at 16/1, he was worth a risk.

If, come the off, he’s an 8/1 shot – and lining up front rank – then I’ll be more than happy to take my chance !

Fontwell

1:25 Highway One O One has his last run as an official eye catcher this afternoon – and hopefully he can mark that with a win.
I’ve been a little disappointed with the way things have panned out with him, as when I put him up, it was in the expectation that he would be contesting better quality races (and would likely be value in them).
That’s not happened and this is the third run-of-the-mill novice hurdle that he’s competed in – on each occasion, under a penalty.

Today however, he has James Bowen in the saddle - and his claim offsets most of the penalty.

As has been the case the last twice, I would expect him to run well this afternoon – and he could easily win.

However, it is not a race here you could be completely confident - and his price is far too short to warrant getting involved.

3:45 This is not a ‘Big’ race, so arguably not a race I should be tipping in.

However, there is an eye catcher running in it, in the shape of Ellens Way, and I wasn’t sure how I could say that I felt she should win and how she represented decent value - and then not tip her !

Hopefully, I left issuing the tip late enough, for you all to get on at a fair price – and for it not to jeopardise any accounts…

In terms of the case for her, then it is based on her 2 most recent runs, where I feel she has run better than the form book suggests.
She’s a mare who needs to be held up – and is therefore hostage to fortune in so much as she needs both a decent pace to chase - and luck in running.

There was no pace in her most recent race – and she found herself trying to pass horses who were quickening themselves.

A mistake a the second last, ended her chance that day - but as a result she was dropped a further 2lb in the ratings and is able to run in a class 4 contest this afternoon.

I think she is a better quality animal than that – and she should get the race run this afternoon, to enable her to prove it.

Shoofly Millie likes to front run – and if she doesn’t she Marienstar will.

Undispuited and Royal Claret are others who tend not to hang around – so I can’t see this being run at a dawdle !

In theory, heavy ground could be an issue – but Ellens Way has won in the soft and I’ll be a little surprised if she can’t handle conditions.

Molley Carew and Undefined Beauty appear to be the ones to beat – but I suspect that Ellens Way has a bit more class.

I’d actually be a little more fearful of Toberdowney – but she’s not run since last May, so there must be a chance that conditions will ultimately find her out…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Kemp 1:20 Bad boy du Pouldu 0.5pt win 14/1

Kemp 1:20 Beggars Wish 0.5pt win 16/1

Kemp 3:40 Midnight Maestro 1pt win 6/1

Leop 2:55 Lake Takapuna 1pt win 6/1

Winc 2:05 Abracadabra Sivola 1pt win 16/1

Font 3:45 Ellens Way 1pt win 9/1

Mentions

Kemp 12:45 Simply the Betts (S )

Kemp 1:55 Mias Storm (C )

Kemp 3:05 Might Bite (P )

Winc 1:30 Different Gravey (O )