Daily write-up - Apr 2nd

Unbelievably, all 5 NH meetings (plus the 1 flat meeting) scheduled in the UK for today, have been abandoned – leaving just the 2 meetings in Ireland, at Fairyhouse and Cork.

What’s more, it must be touch and go for both Irish meetings, as rain continues to fall on saturated ground…

I can only imagine how it will ride !

It’s been a great shame that the weather has completely messed up the last month or so, of the season.

In fact, it has arguably messed up most of the time since Christmas – certainly during the midweeks (as I know from trying to find races to preview on the blog !).

Obviously it’s an occupational hazard – and there’s absolutely nothing that can be done about it.

However, when coupled with the luck we’ve been enduring recently, it does result in quite a lot of frustration (for me, at least !)

Still, on the upside, every day brings new hope – maybe everything will drop into place this afternoon

With Cork putting on a slightly odd card (presumably designed for a Bank holiday crowd !), all of my attention has been on day 2 of the Easter festival at Fairyhouse.

The feature race is the Irish National– and I’ve tipped 3 in that race. I’ve also tipped 3 more, across a couple of the supporting races.

Here’s the rational for the tips – plus my thoughts on the other main races.

Fairyhouse

2:45 I’d been quite keen to take on Getabird in this – if I could find something suitable…

He was sent off 7/4 fav for the Supreme hurdle at Cheltenham on his most recent run – but was far too free and didn’t get home.

Despite that, he’s been installed around even money for this race – and really wants opposing at that price.

The trouble is, I can’t find anything suitable to oppose him with…

His stable/owner companion Sharjah is second favourite. He also ran in the Supreme – but he didn’t fare much better than Getabird…

Sayar may be the one – but it’s hard to side with a stable third string (which is effectively what he is !).

That said, I guess it’s a little easier when the stable is that of Willie Mullins…

Certainly I prefer his claims to those of the 2 Gordon Elliott representatives: Veneer of Charm and Hardline – both of whom look below the level normally required to win a race of this nature.

Damalisque and The Gunner Murphy are potentially both quite interesting.

The former won well on his only run over hurdles in France: whilst it’s interesting that the latter is being asked to make his hurdling debut in a graded race.

Market support for Damalisque, would make him interesting – but without that knowledge, he is hard to recommend.

3:15 This is another difficult race to fathom.
The Gordon Elliott trained Space Cadet is favourite - but that’s because he is potentially well treated back over hurdles, based on his chase mark.

However, it’s always dangerous to assume that a horse will be able to run to its mark in one discipline, when faced with the other – and he makes very little appeal at around 5/1.

The trouble is, I can’t find anything that does make much appeal !
Stand up and Fight could be dangerous, back over hurdles – but there’s a lot of guesswork in involved with him: and it’s a similar situation with Bargy Lady, who hasn’t run for almost a year.

I’m quite interested in Visions D’ete.

It’s unusual to see a 4 year old running in a race like this – and the weight concession he gets from his older rivals, could prove crucial in the testing conditions.

That said, there’s a bit too much guesswork involved to make 10/1 an attractive price.

Plenty of others can be given half chances – but it’s hard to construct a solid case for any of them.
In the circumstances, it’s an easy enough race to just watch…

3:50 4 races into the card and we finally reach one where it’s possible to construct a proper case for a bet (as opposed to just guessing !).

That said, it’s a very open looking race, in which an argument can be made for a number of the runners.

The one that appeals most, is Forge Meadow.

She’s looked an improved performer this season, since racing prominently – and I’m hopeful she will be able to continue that improvement this afternoon.

On her most recent run, she out-battled Identity Thief at Gowran, having been passed by him on the run to the last (ouch !).

Identity Thiefs subsequent fourth in the Champion hurdle, showed the Gowran form in a very good light – but he’s 4lb worse off with Forge Meadow today; won’t relish the conditions as much as the mare – and had a hard enough race in the Champion hurdle.

In short, he shouldn’t reverse the form !

Arguably Forge Meadow shouldn’t reverse form with Lets Dance, from when the 2 met at Leopardstown over Christmas.

However, I suspect that today’s softer ground – plus the likelihood that Forge Meadow will get a better passage through the race (assuming she leads), could swing things in her favour.

At the prices, I think it is worth also having Lets Dance on side, just in case things work out well for her (she certainly has sufficient ability to go very close if they do).

There are plenty of potential dangers in the race…

Diamond Cauchois and Renneti are 2 – though both are burdened with 5lb penalties, which won’t help their cause.

Coquin Mans and Jezki are 2 others – though the former is priced up short enough for what he’s achieved; whilst the latter is in the twilight of his career and doesn’t really want the ground as heavy as he’s going to get.

It’s certainly not a race you could be adamant about – but both Forge Meadow and Lets Dance have a chance – and the market has underestimated that chance.

Hopefully one of them will do the decent thing and come home in front !

4:25 As I said in my earlier tip email, I was toying with getting involved with this race…

That’s because I can see reasons for opposing the top 3 in the betting.

Un de Sceaux is clearly the class horse in the race – but he had a hard race at Cheltenham and I can see the very heavy ground taxing his stamina.

If he can recapture his novice form, then Coney Island is the one to beat – but he’s been unimpressive in his 2 runs this season and has a lot to prove.

Doctor Phoenix has been a revelation this season – but I’ll be surprised if he gets home over 2m4f in heavy ground.

By a process of elimination, Kylemore Lough is the one I wanted to side with.

He was an eye catcher last time at Warwick, when he was sent for home too early – and ran out of steam after jumping the last.

He will relish today conditions – and it’s interesting that Harry Fry has seen fit to send him over to compete in the race.

The only thing that puts me off him, is that he really shouldn’t be good enough to win !

He’s definitely the inferior of Un de Sceaux, if both horses are at their peak – and he could also be inferior to Coney island.

I would expect him to be placed – and with 8 in the race, would have got involved with him EW.
However the late defection of Champagne West has messed up place terms and the bookies will now only pay out on the first 2 home.

In addition to Kylemore Lough, I would also have taken an EW chance on Fine Rightly…

He’s rated 22lb inferior to Un De Sceaux - so seemingly has a mountain to climb.
However, he will relish the conditions – and I was impressed by the way he travelled last time at Haydock (admittedly in a much lesser contest).

He was priced up at 100/1 – and I certainty don’t think it’s 20/1 about him finishing in the first 3. It might be about him finishing in the first 2, however !

5:00 Historically, novices have done well in the Irish National – and I’m quite keen on a couple in this.

The first of them is Dounikos.

He’s a horse who I’ve tipped on his 2 most recent runs: when finishing fourth at a massive price the Dublin Racing festival – and then last time, when he was pulled up in the RSA chase at Cheltenham.

I really fancied him at Cheltenham, so it was very disappointing to see him run no kind of a race.

I’ve no idea what the problem was that day – so supporting him again today, is an act of faith in his trainer, Gordon Elliott.

However, prior to that run, he had looked very progressive – and I’m sure he will relish the step up to todays trip.

Whether he will relish the shocking ground is a different matter – but I think he is worth a risk.

It’s a similar story with Moulin a Vent.

He’s a very talented novice, who I’m sure will relish the distance of  todays race.

His jumping has let him down a couple of times – and the ground is a worry – but based purely on ability, he has a much better chance than his odds imply.

Certainly his defeat of Monbeg Notorious in December, reads extremely well – particularly as he meets that one on 7lb better terms today.

Admittedly Monbeg Notorious did reverse the form when the 2 met in February – however poor jumping cost Moulin a Vent that day.

I had planned to just put up the 2 in the race – but in the desperate conditions, I think it is worth getting an old timer on side as well…

Thunder and Roses won this race 3 years ago, when he was a novice.

He comfortably beat Rule the World that day – and that one subsequently won the Grand National.

Whilst he’s not reached those heights since, Thunder and Roses has run well on just about every outing this season.

What I like about him, is that he will definitely stay the trip – and act in the conditions.

He also tends to race prominently, and that could be a big positive this afternoon.

Whilst he may be vulnerable to an improver – I expect him to run a very big race.

Of the market leaders, I like Monbeg Notorious best – but have tipped a couple of horses who I think can beat him !

Oscar Knight also interests me, as he’s very strong in the market for a horse who will allegedly hate the conditions !

Kemboy and Arkwrisht are the last 2 that I’ll give a positive mentions. I think both have a chance – but both also have enough question marks over them to stop me from tipping them.

5:45 I’m quite keen on Rogue Angel in this…

He had his finest hour when winning the Irish National , on this card a couple of years ago – and I suspect that connections were hoping he could go for a repeat today.
However, a series of poor performances have seen his mark drop – and his current rating of 128 isn’t high enough to get him into the big one. 

In fact, it’s 9lb lower than when he won the National – and in a much weaker race today, that makes him look very well handicapped.
Ofcourse, being well handicapped is no good if you’ve completely lost your form – but his last time out run in the Leinster National suggests that isn’t the case.

He finished fifth in the race – one place in front of Poormans Hill.

That one reopposes today on 12lb worse terms – and Rogue Angel really should have his beating.

However, Poormans Hill is the 7/2 fav for the race, because he comes here fresh from a recent win in the Ulster National.

He did well to win that day – but the race was just over a week ago, so there must be a question mark over whether he will have fully recovered.

Even if he has, then over today shorter trip, I wouldn’t back him to beat Out Sam.

That one finished third in the race, but looked the most likely winner jumping the last.
However, his stamina gave out up the hill, enabling Poormans Hill to sweep past.

Non of the others in the race particularly grab me.

I could make half cases for Close Shave and Goulane Chosen – but much prefer the chance of Rogue Angel.

My biggest worry is that run immediately after the Irish National, the ground could be truly desperate and this could end up a lottery.

If that doesn’t happen, then I’m optimistic that Rogue Angel will run a very big race.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead – despite the weather !!

TVB.

Tips

Fair 3:50 Forge Meadow 1pt win 12/1

Fair 3:50 Lets Dance 0.5pt win 16/1

Fair 5:00 Dounikos 1pt win 16/1

Fair 5:00 Thunder and Roses 0.5pt EW 40/1

Fair 5:00 Moulin a Vent 0.5pt win 33/1

Fair 5:45 Rogue Angel 0.5pt EW 18/1

Mentions

Fair 2:45 Sayar (S )

Fair 3:15 Vision D’Ete (S )

Fair 4:25 Kylemore Lough & Fine Rightly EW (C )