Daily write-up - Dec 1st

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Newbury and Doncaster in the UK – plus Limerick in Ireland.

It’s day 1 of the 2 day ‘Winter Festival’ at Newbury – and what a cracking days racing it is…

They juggled this meeting a few years back (it used to be 3 days) – and they’ve managed to achieve a really good balance.

The feature Long Distance Hurdle is a race good enough to grace any card: whilst there are 3 quality handicaps to support - plus a top class novice chase (not to mention a couple of novice hurdles).

My only reservation, concerns the state of the ground…

It’s described as ‘Soft – Good to soft’ on the hurdles course: and ‘Good to soft – soft in places’ on the chase course.

That seems to cover most eventualities (!) – and in reality, I think we’re just going to have to wait and see how it rides.

I’m certainly not inclined to get involved with the Ladbroke Trophy (Hennessy), until I’ve watched todays action…

A quick mention for the Naps Competition, which starts today in the forum:

Around 20 of you have accepted the challenge, so far – which is pretty good going.

That said, we had a few more last year – and it’s still not too late to throw your hat in the ring !

Submitting your Naps couldn’t be easier: you’ll just need to reply to the thread which Dave will set up, on a daily basis.

It will literally take 30 seconds (assuming you’ve identified a horse that you want to Nap !).

As a reminder, there’s first prize of £100 – plus, more importantly, the kudos of being TVB Naps champion (I believe that Chris has dined out on reputation alone, for the past 12 months !).

Anyway, I’ll leave it with you all – suffice to say, the more, the merrier !

On to todays preview then:

I’ve ended up with 2 tips on the day.

I’ve kept stakes small: partially because on the uncertainty over the ground – but also because the racing is very competitive.

Here’s the rationale for the tips – plus my thoughts on the days other ‘Big’ races…

Newbury

12:50 This is the first of 3 very open handicaps on the card, in which a case can be made for virtually all of the runners…

I was really taken by Cyrname when he won last time at Huntingdon.
I’d had my eye on the horse for a while – but the change to front running tactics, on his chasing debut, resulted in a scintillating performance.

If he can do the same today, he will be hard to beat. However, a tougher field –and the presence of Bigmatre are going to make things much more difficult for him…

Bigmatre is another who likes (insists !) on forcing the pace and I’m not sure how he and Cyrname are going to work things out.

They obviously can’t both lead – but I don’t think it will be in the best interests of either, to accept a lead from the other…

In the circumstances, I think you have to look elsewhere for the winner.

Hell’s Kitchen is the obvious one – and serious pace up front should help him settle (he tends to be headstrong).

The trouble is, he’s short enough in the betting (2/1) – and is hardly cast iron…

Dusky Legend is much more solid – the question is whether she is good enough.

She also has a marked preference for decent ground – so that is a bit of a worry.

Both Crievehill and Exitas can be given chances: though again, the question is whether they are good enough to deal with the likes of Cryname and Hell’s Kitchen – if they are on their ‘A’ game…

It’s a really difficult race to call, because of the uncertainty regarding how it will be played out.

If either Bigmatre or Cyrname get an uncontested lead, they are likely to be difficult to pass.
However, if they get into a battle up front, they could well set it up for Hell’s Kitchen.

He’s not guaranteed to run his race though – which means that the other 3 all have a chance of sorts !

If forced, I’d maybe take a chance on Crievehill at a decent price – though I feel it’s probably a race best watched.

1:50 Based on hurdles form, then Yanworth and Willoughby Court are the 2 to focus on in this.

Yanworth was a top class hurdler, who was sent off favourite for last years Champion hurdle - but found the trip too short.

Willoughby Court wasn’t quite as good over hurdles – but mainly because he spent less time running over them !

He still managed to win the Neptune novice hurdle at last years Cheltenham festival – which is very decent form indeed.

The trouble is, neither of them have convinced on their outings over fences.

Admittedly it’s still early days: Willoughby Court has only run once over fences  - and Yanworth twice.

Both could improve dramatically, as they gain experience - but they will need to.

Yanworth in particular, hasn’t impressed with the shape he makes over his fences – and I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see him revert to hurdles, if today doesn’t go well.

Willoughby Court just looked a bit ‘novicey’ on his run over fences – so I don’t want to judge him too harshly just yet…

However, with the question marks over them both, I did toy with the idea of tipping Adrien du Pont - each way.

It really wouldn’t surprised me if one of the big 2 bombed out – and on form Adrien is the third best horse in the race.

He’s also still got plenty of scope for improvement – so it’s not totally inconceivable, that he could give the other 2 something to think about, regardless…

If the race were being run at a trickier course (such as Sandown), I would probably have taken the plunge. However, Newbury is a very fair course– and with just the 5 runners, jumping may not be the deciding factor.

That being the case then it’s possible that the natural talent of the market leaders will be sufficient to get them home in front.

I wouldn’t bet on it – but I’m not prepared to bet against it, either…

2:25 I tipped Vibrato Voltat last time in the Halden Gold Cup – and I can’t resist getting involved with him again…

In fairness, he didn’t run a bad race that day: seemingly struggling a bit in the rain softened ground – and also looking as if the race would bring him on.

As expected, he’s been dropped 3lb for the run – and this is an easier race (though still quite tough !).

I just feel that he’s worth another chance, simply because if he can recapture his old form, he’ll win !

There are a few other things that have obliged me to tip him this however, in addition to his ‘back class’…

Firstly, there is a chance that it was a very strong reewal of the Halden Gold Cup.

San Benedito, Ginos Trail and Sir Valentino are the only 3 horses to contest race, who have run subsequently – and all 3 ran very well…

The last 2 named, have both won – whilst San Benedito ran with credit to finish a close up fourth to Sir Valentino.

The second factor, is the form of Emma Lavelles yard.

Of her last 7 runners, 2 have won: 2 have finished second and 2 have finished third.

The final thing is the reapplication of a tongue tie.
Vibrato Voltat wore a tongue tie for most of his races when trained by Paul Nichols  but it was absent last time (on his debut for Lavelle).

He seemed to struggle when the pressure was applied at Exeter - so hopefully, it will improve his breathing and give him a better chance of getting home…

Clearly he is no certainty in this.

It’s a very tough race – and a chance of sorts can be given to all of the runners.

Willie Boy is a worthy favourite, based on his last time out win: whilst I’m a bit nervous about taking of Oldgrangewood, who was an eye catcher on his penultimate run (though whom I felt was a little disappointing, last time a Aintree).

Jameson is another, who impressed me on his most recent outing – but to be honest, I wouldn’t be overly surprised whatever the outcome.

However, that includes a victory for Vibrato Voltat – so at 25/1, I think he’s a legitimate ‘value’ play.

3:00 This is a truly fascinating contest: as it pitches Unowhatimeanharry, the outstanding staying hurdler of last season; against Thistlecrack, the outstanding stayer of the season before…

If they both arrived here at the peak of their powers, then I doubt you would find many bookmakers prepared to take a bet.

Thistlecrack was the dominant force in his year: achieving more than Harry – and in more impressive fashion.
He is still rated 3lb superior – yet gets to receive 6lb from his main rival, today.
It should be an open and closed case…

However, it’s not, because Thistlecrack switched his attention to fences last season – and the main purpose of todays race for him is to get him spot on for the King George chase at Kempton on Boxing day.
Harry, on the other hand, is arriving here at the peak of his powers – after a comeback win at Aintree, over a trip short of his best.

Everything is in pace for him to run to his optimum today – the question is, will that optimum be sufficient to beat Thistlecrack, at 90%..?

Everyone will have their own opinion on the likely outcome.

For what it’s worth, I would always choose to side with the horse primed to run to its best – so in the case, Unowhatimeanharry…

It’s difficult to see the winner coming from outside of the big 2…

I was really impressed by Colins Sister when she won at Wetherby - but she needs much softer ground than she’s likely to get today, if she’s going to rustle up the favourites.

She still looks the third best in the race though, with the other 3 runners having even more to prove…

Ultimately I think some races are best just watched and enjoyed – and this one falls into that category…

3:35 This is another very tight looking handicap – though if there is one horse in the field who could take it apart, then I think it’s I Shot the Sheriff…

He has his first run for Fergal O’Brien today, having previously been trained in Ireland, by Tony Martin.

The horse is clearly very fragile, as despite being 10 years old (11 in a month), he’s only had 12 runs under rules.

However, he does have a good strike rate, having won 4 of those races.

Furthermore, his record when fresh is excellent.

Fergal is his fourth trainer – and he’s won on his debut for 2 of the other 3 – and finished runner up on his debut for Tony Martin.

That makes sense, considering his fragility – when he does make it to the course, he’s likely to be primed to run a big race.

His form when running for Tony Martin, really does warrant close scrutiny.

Following his debut run for him, he won at Wexford (beating Velocity Boy) and then hacked up at the Fairyhouse Easter festival.

He beat 17 rivals that day, barely coming off the bit – whilst running from a mark of 130.

He was raised to a mark of 146 following that win – and his next race was the grade 1 stayers hurdle at he Punchestown festival, where he was sent off a 12/1 shot (against Hurricane Fly – and others).

He spent the next 2 years on the sidelines – but his comeback run at Leopardstown last March, suggested that the old ability remains…

He gets to run off a mark of 137 today.

There is not a direct correlation between Irish marks and English marks – but generally, the English ones are a few pounds higher.

Effectively, he’s probably not running off a mark much higher than the mark of 130 that he was on, when destroying the field at Fairyhouse.

His new stable really couldn’t be in better form - and if they have him right, he could is likely to be too good for todays rivals…

If he’s not at his peak, then it looks an open race.

I was quite interested in Beneagles, in a first time visor; though, as with the earlier handicaps on the card, it’s hard to rule out many of the runners…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Newb 2:25 Vibrato Voltat 0.5pt win 25/1

Newb 3:35 I Shot the Sheriff 1pt win 8/1

Mentions

Newb 12:50 Crievehill (O )

Newb 1:50 Adrien du Pont (S )

Newb 3:00 Unowhatimeanharry (P )