Daily write-up - Dec 9th

There are 5 NH meetings this afternoon (probably !): at Sandown, Aintree, Chepstow and Wetherby in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland.

It should be an absolute feast of racing – but the weather has done its best to mess things up…

I’d forgotten what a pain the rain and frost can be.

We’ve had a relatively smooth passage, weather wise, so far this season – but that all changed today…

The big issue, is the uncertainty – firstly in terms of whether racing will take place; then in terms of how the ground will ride; and finally, in terms of which horses won’t run.

And as if it’s not all hard enough as it is !

Anyway, it is as it is.

I’ve still found a few tips for the day – and have thoughts on all of the big races – so there is plenty to get stuck in to…

Aintree

Although it is likely to go ahead, the Aintree meeting has been spoilt, by the weather…

A 3 horse race and two 4 horse races, is not really what you want, at one of the weeks flaghsip meetings.

More than that, the fields for the 2 big races over the National fences, have been significantly affected by the heavy ground.

Both races are likely to turn into wars – with only the fittest, getting home…

12:55 Of all the eye catchers that I’ve logged in the forum, Le Breuil was the one I was most looking forward to seeing run.

His debut effort at Kempton last month, was superficially under-whelming – but I’m sure he is much better than that.

I really hoped that he would next appear in a strong 2m4f handicap hurdle – on half decent ground.
I reckon we would have got price on him – and I would have been very keen…

Instead, he’s running here, in a 4 runner race, on desperate ground…

He’ll probably get way with it, simply because he is different class to his rivals – but I don’t think conditions are ideal for him.

He’s a shade of odds on now – which could still be a decent price – provided he handles the ground.

Hopefully, he’ll win unimpressively (or even get beaten !) and we’ll get another shot at him, the next time he runs…

1:30 It’s hard to get away from Blaklion in this – but equally hard to back a horse at 11/4, when he faces 15 rivals on heavy ground, over the National fences…

In fairness, Blaklion should handle both the ground and the fences – it’s just the ‘lottery’ element of the race, which makes it difficult to side with him.

He is the best horse in the race, at the weights – but he’s not got masses in hand of  a few of his rivals.

Certainly, a dodgy jump or a bit of misfortune and 11/4 will look very short…

It was tempting to find one to take him on with – at least each way – but the market seems to have everything priced up about right…

Vieux Lion Rouge and Highland Lodge both look likely to be involved in the finish – but there is no margin in their prices (from an EW perspective).

Beyond that, The Last Samurai, Viva Steve and Goodtoknow look as if they have place chances  - but non of them are absolutely guaranteed to be involved at the finish – and their odds also look about right.

Federici is probably the most interesting of those at really big prices - but this is a race where I think the market leaders are most likely to be fighting out the finish.

2:35 This is a fascinating little race, in which all 4 runners can be given a chance.

Tactics are likely to be key – and if one of the jockeys is prepared to take the initiative and control the race from the front, it could prove decisive.

The trouble is, all of the runners tend to be ridden from off the pace – so it’s anyones guess as to how things will pan out…

I suspect the pace will come from either Alpha des Obeaux or Defintily Red.

Both are relatively stout stayers, who should handle the ground.

I’d like to see Johnny Burke make it on Alpha des Obeaux – the trouble is, whilst I think that would suit him best, it would also play into the hands of the other 3….

In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race.

3:10 I took a risk with Cpatain Redbeard, earlier in the week – and superficially, it seems to have paid off…

He was 25/1 at the time – and the EW terms were 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4.

This morning, he is a best price of 12/1 – and with just 11 runners in the race, EW terms are now 1/5 odds, 1,2,3.

Result !

Well, maybe….

The trouble is, when I tipped him, the ground was described as ‘good to soft’ and that was a chunk of the appeal.

He’s a horse who prefers a decent surface.

I think it says much for how he is viewed by connections, that they are allowing him to  take his chance in conditions, which will not suit him so well…

In fairness, there is chance he will get away with it.

The ground was heavy the last time he ran, at Ayr – and he didn’t run too badly (in fact he was an official eye catcher).

However, not running too badly, is unlikely to see him home in front, in todays race…

There is another eye catcher running in the race: Mercian Prince – and he should be better suited by today’s conditions.

I nearly took a risk on him, last Sunday (when he was 20/1) – but that really would have been a risk, as I had no idea whether he was being targeted at the race.

I think he has a decent chase this afternoon – but there is little margin in a price of 6/1…

I actually think the Gas Line Boy is by far the most likely winner of the race.

He’s yet another who I considered tipping ante-post – as he is ideally suited by the Aintree fences.

The trouble with him is that he was expected to run in the Becher Chase (and that’s the race I would probably have tipped him for !).

Fortunately, I read that there was a chance he would run in this race – if the ground was heavy  - and that stopped me pulling the trigger with him.

It would have been particularly galling to have tipped for one race, only to see him hack up in the other !

As you can see, this is a race, where I’ve been pulled all over the place !

I would now like to be on Gas Line Boy, as I think he’s the most likely winner.
I would be happy enough if we were on Mercian Prince,  EW, as I think he could easily place.
However, we are on Captain Redbeard EW – and whilst I’m not prepared to completely write off his chances, I do think that conditions have gone against him.
Fingers crossed I am wrong !!

Sandown

1:45 This is a sensational race ! - and not one which I expected to be witnessing so early in the season…

I guess in fairness, it is a Grade 1 event – but it does look like the UK semi final of the Arkle ! (the Irish will run their version at Leopardstown, over Christmas).

It’s not a race which I’m prepared to get involved with today – but it is a race which we are very interested in, due to the ante-post position on Brain Power…

I tipped him for the Arkle at the start of the season – and following an impressive win at Kempton, he is now a best priced 8/1 for that race.

Today we will find out whether his price is justified !

In fact, if he does manage to win today race, he’s likely to be half that price for the Arkle – but I don’t want to get ahead of myself !

He faces some serious rivals this afternoon – and he will have to be the real deal if he’s to come out on top…

Finian’s Oscar is clearly the one to beat.
He’s a huge talent – with the potential to become the sports next superstar.

The issue I have with him today, is that I can’t see 2 miles round Sandown really suiting him.

Firstly I think the trip is too short: and secondly I’m not sure his jumping is yet sufficiently proficient to cope with the test that Sandown provides.

Neither Capitaine nor North Hill Harvey should be good enough to win a race of this nature - but both are bold jumping, prominent racers – and they will certainly test the jumping of the 2 market leaders.

If either Brain Power or Finians Oscar aren’t slick over their jumps, then I think they will be found out…

Sceau Royal is rightly the outsider of the field – but it’s not impossible that the race will fall apart, in front of him – and in ideal conditions, he has the ability to pick up the pieces…

The bottom line is that this has to be a watching race – but what a race it could be !

2:20 I think it is worth taking a stance on this race because I’m not convinced by most of the market leaders…

William H Bonney, Fidux and Jenkins all look beatable to me – suggesting that there must be value elsewhere…

A Hare Breath is the first one I want on side.

He’s a horse who runs best when fresh – as is demonstrated by his performance first time out in the past 2 seasons.

2 seasons ago, he was a spectacular winner of a novice handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham November meeting: whilst last season, he finished a close up fourth in the feature Greatwood hurdle, at the same event.

He was only beaten 2 lengths that day – and was a little unlucky.

So from a pure handicapping perspective, he must have every chance today, racing from a mark just 2lb higher.

He did better in last years Greatwood than William H Bonney and Jenkins did in this years renewal – and its arguable that last years race was also stronger…

I think A Hares Breath is the best bet in the race, playing it straight - but there are a couple of ‘curve balls’, who I also want on side !

The first is Crossed my Mind.
He is trained in Ireland by Arthur Moore – and owned by JP McManus.

He’s only run 5 times over hurdles – and just twice in handicaps, so really could be anything…

His form isn’t that special - but it’s the combination of the potential – plus the fact that he’s been brought over for the race, which make him interesting…

This doesn’t look an overly strong race and there is a chance that he could be far better than his current mark.

I initially planed to just have those 2 in the race - but the late defection of Rayvin Black, has persuaded me to add Evening Hush.

She’s a front runner – as is Rayvin Black – so with him out of the race there is a chance that she could get an uncontested lead.

She should be a good in running play – but I do think there is a chance she could be more than that…

From a pure handicapping perspective, she is pretty much the same horse as Fidux, based on their run behind Master Blueyes at Kempton, last February.

More than that, Evening Hush was a little disappointing that day – as she was considered capable of winning the race.

Certainly she looked a real talent at the start of last season – and if she can rediscover that from today, she could make a mockery of her odds.

There is a question mark over her fitness, so I don’t want to get carried away – but Mitch Bastyan is a positive jockey booking.

I just felt that she couldn’t go untipped – even if it is to the smallest possible stake !

2:55 The absence of Douvan has robbed this race of a lot of its interest – and it’s hard to see Fox Norton not coming home in front.
He’s been an absolute revelation over the past 12 months – with his improvement showing no sign of stopping.

On official figures he has at least half a stone in hand of his 5 rivals – and whilst I’m not sure that Sandown will be his ideal course, he’s a very proficient jumper, so I can’t see him having too many issues…

If he is beaten it will most likely be down to tactics, in the small field.

I would expect to see Ar Mad try and make all – but both Politologue and Charbel like to race prominently, so there won’t be any hanging around, whatever.

That should all just play in to the hands of Fox Norton however, and I expect him to pounce after the Pond fence.

I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Sir Valentino run on past beaten horses to claim the runners up spot – so it might be worth considering a straight forecast with him and Fox Norton.

Aside from that, I’m finding it hard to see much of an angle into the race…

3:30 This looks an open race and I think it’s worth taking a small chance on Southfields Theatre, at a fair price…

He ran a decent race last time, when fourth in the Badger Ales chase at Wincanton.

That was his seasonal debut and he was running on unsuitably soft ground – so you would expect him to do better today.
He’s been dropped 2lb for the run and is now on a mark, from which he can go close.

More than that, Paul Nicholls has opted to put 7lb claimer, Lorcan Williams in the saddle - and I’m hoping that can make the difference.

In truth, it’s not a race where you could ever feel overly confident.

A lot of the runners have inter linking form, so it will be a question of which one things fall right for, in the race.

I did wonder about also siding with Benbens, as I thought he ran a fair race when I tipped him last time.
However, he’s virtually the same price as Southfield Theatre and I prefer the chances of the younger horse (certainly from a win perspective).

The Happy Chappy is the one relatively unexposed, potential improver in the race  - but he was picked up on last night and his current price of 8/1 now seems a fair representation of his chance.

Chepstow

2:45 Binge Drinker has been installed a short priced favourite for this on his debut for Paul Nicholls – but I think should be taken on…

This horse is unlikely to be at its peak on it seasonal debut – but more than that, it is apparently being targeted at the Welsh National.

If it wins today, it will incur a 4lb penalty for that race – and I can’t really see connections wanting that…

The ground is likely to be absolutely bottomless at Chepstow today – and that is not going to suit many horses.

One who will relish it, however, is Bob Ford.

He won the game of ‘last man standing’ when taking the West Wales National, at Ffos Las a couple of years ago.

The ground that day, was as bad as I’ve ever seen – and he ploughed through it, so I can’t see him having any trouble with todays conditions.

He was trained by Rebecca Curtis when he won that race – but he’s now in the care of Dr Newland.

This will be his second race for Dr Newland, having run once for Alistair Ralph.

That was in October when he took a really competitive leg of Veterans chase series, over todays course and distance.

His subsequent run (his first for Dr Newland) was disappointing – and we have to be prepared to ignore that.

If we do however, we have a horse who will be racing in ideal conditions – and who has recently shown himself to be in top form.

In a race where I’ll be surprised if many get home, he is the obvious selection…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Aint 3:30 Captain Redbeard 0.5pt EW 25/1 (issued Tuesday)

Sand 2:20 A Hare Breath 1pt win 9/1

Sand 2:20 Crossed my Mind 0.5pt win 5/1

Sand 2:20 Evening Hush 0.25pt win 28/1

Sand 3:30 Southfield Theatre 1pt win 10/1

Chep 2:45 Bob Ford 1pt win 6/1

Mentions

Aint 12:55 Le Breuil (P )

Aint 1:30 Blaklion (P )

Aint 2:35 Alpha des Obeaux (C )

Sand 1:45 Brain Power (O )

Sand 2:55 Fox Norton (P )