There are 4 NH meetings today: at Ascot, Haydock and
Huntingdon in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland…
There’s not much of interest running at Huntingdon: and
it’s the same story at Gowran – if you ignore the reappearing Min (who’s a 1/8
shot – so more one for watching, than backing !).
However, the cards at both Ascot and Haydock are
excellent – and there’s an array of potential betting opportunities…
I do
think that the state of the ground is going to be absolutely key, at both
venues.
The
ground at Ascot yesterday, was on the soft side of good – and with no rain
forecast, it should be similar today.
Haydock however, will be like a quagmire !
It
was already heavy, before the overnight rain – and there is more rain forecast
during the afternoon.
Only
those with an ability to act in such conditions – and stamina to burn - need
apply…
Unlike last weekend, I had no issue identifying potential
tips – the problem was being able to issue them at a point when we were able to
get a price (without getting accounts closed !).
I
did my best to strike the right balance – but it’s really not easy…
I’ve
ended up with tips in 5 of the 11 races that I’ve looked at – and mentions in
the other 6 (which you may choose to back, if circumstances move in their
favour).
Here’s the rationale for the tips, along with my other
thoughts on a very busy day…
Ascot
12:55 Deauville Crystal was put in at 20/1 on the
opening show for this race last night – and at that price, she would have been a
tip.
She
gradually seems to be getting the hang of things over fences – and ran a fair
race last time, staying on late at Sandown.
I
think the step up in trip today, will suit him – and Sean Bowen back in the
saddle is a positive.
At a
big price, she would certainly have been worth an interest (maybe EW) – but that
price has now halved and the value in her at 10/1, is minimal.
That’s because there are plenty of others in the race,
who can also be given a chance…
Next
on my list would be Will o the West: but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see
Clondaw Cian bounce back to form or Creep Desbois leave behind his
under-whelming seasonal debut.
And
I’ve not yet mentioned any of the market leaders…
Remind me Later was impressive at Worcester; whilst Lough
Derg Farmer has plenty of scope for improvement, now sent over fences; and
Toviere also looking interesting. I’m not so keen on the 3 outsiders – but that
doesn’t move things forward significantly !
Ultimately, I decided it had to be a watching race –
though significant drifts on either Deauville Crystal or Will o the West could
see me getting involved with them…
1:30 This is another very tricky race to call, as
it’s not easy to get a handle on a number of the runners.
Half
of the field are making their seasonal debut; whilst most have still got
significant scope for improvement (rendering the form book, of limited
value)…
I
was tempted to take a chance on Carnspindle.
She
ran a really big race on her final outing last season – and whilst superficially
disappointing on her seasonal debut at Wetherby, I don’t think she ran as badly
as the formbook suggests.
With
that run under her belt – and a 7lb claimer in the saddle – I think she will do
much better today.
She
certainly has a nice attitude which should stand her in good stead…
However, based on form from last season, she can’t beat
Hitherjacques Lady.
That
one beat her by 10 lengths at Lingfield – and is 4lb better off
today.
Hitherjacques Lady is making her seasonal debut today,
however – and could find the ground a bit quicker than ideal.
The market may
advise on her chance close to the off…
As
you would expect, cases of sorts can be made for most of the other runners, so
again, I think it is a race probably best watched…
2:05 I had hoped to get us in a strong position in
this race, by tipping earlier in the week.
It’s
something I’m quite keen to do – though the bookmakers ensure there are
relatively few opportunities (as only a few of them tend to price up races – and
there’s a big variance in prices on offer).
Looking at the 5 day decs, I felt Smad Place was the most
likely winner.
His
connections had also stated that this was his target (and that wasn’t the case
with his most dangerous looking rivals), so in the circumstances, I figured it
was worth getting involved early…
However, as things transpired, all of this main rivals
stood their ground – so whilst he still looks the most likely winner, the case
for him isn’t as overwhelming as I was hoping it might be !
That
said, on form and ratings, he - and Top Notch - stand out.
A
few of the runners could be given a chance, in certain circumstances, but they
all come with far more risks than the 2 market principals…
At
his peak, Smad Place is a solid Grade 2 performer – bordering on Grade 1.
He
should have no issue with todays conditions – and showed himself in top form,
when winning on his seasonal debut, last time at Aintree.
As a
10 year old, connections won’t want to be wasting opportunities – and I’m
absolutely sure he’ll run a huge race today.
The only question in my mind, is
whether he’ll be good enough to beat a peak form Top Notch…
That’s a tough one to call, as he too is a solid Grade
2/borderline Grade 1 performer –and he’s 4 years younger than Smad Place, so
could still be improving.
On
the flip side, his jumping isn’t as assured, so he may struggle, if put under
pressure.
He
will also have a new jockey in the saddle, as Daryl Jacob is at Haydock, so Nico
de Boinville steps in for the ride…
Purely on ratings, Top Gamble should also go close – but
he prefers softer ground than he will get – and is also likely to benefit from
the outing. I’m happy enough opposing him.
I
could see Royal Regata running very well – particularly if he’s able to boss
things from the front.
That said, he really shouldn’t be good enough to beat
Smad Place or Top Notch.
Similarly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Double
Shuffle or Sizing Granite outrun their odds – but neither should be good enough
to win…
This
looks like a 2 horse race to me.
I
still favour Smad Place, but I think it makes sense to save stakes (most of
them, anyway !) on Top Notch…
2:40 TVB favourite, Lil Rockerfeller runs in this,
and I expect him to go very well indeed !
I’ve
already tipped him for this seasons Stayers hurdle – so if he’s going to go
close in that race, then in receipt of weight from his 2 main rivals, he really
should win today.
And I think he can.
Provided it’s a truly run race, then the trip and course
will suit him perfectly.
Hopefully, the 2 outsiders will ensure there’s a good
pace, which Lil Rockerfeller will track, before asserting in the home
straight…
I’m
reasonably confident that he can beat L’Ami Serge, as I suspect that one will
need the run (I’m also reasonably confident that he will look like winning, at
some point !).
It’s
not so easy to be sure about him beating Defi du Seuil, as he is unbeaten so
far, over hurdles.
However, he’s going to have to be some horse, to give
weight to Lil Rockerfeller on his seasonal debut - particularly as he’s only a 4
year old (and should therefore be receiving weight for age).
Ultimately, I think we are looking at one horse who will
be primed for today’s contest, against 2 who are likely to improve for the
run.
That
is sufficient reason for me to want Lil Rockerfeller on side, at what is a fair
price.
3:15 When I first looked at this race, I was drawn
to Cepage…
He
was a very impressive winner, when bolting up on his debut for Venetia at
Newbury, last December.
However, that was in a class 4 race – and subseqent
events showed the form to be of little value.
Capage was raised nearly a stone for the win – and based
on his subsequent runs last season, he’s going to struggle from his current
mark…
Having dismissed him (!), I started to look elsewhere for
the winner…
My
feeling is that the top 3 are badly handicapped – and whilst San Benedito and
Quite by Chance aren’t so easily dismissed – there are both at short enough
prices, considering they don’t appear to have much in hand of their
marks.
The
same is true of Upsilon Bleu – but at least he’s at a price (8/1) where he could
be backed EW. I would expect him to run well…
However, I think the bet in the race, is
Dandridge…
He’s
a horse with a marked preference for decent ground. He tends not to get that in
Ireland so has to come over to the UK – and when he does that, he does very
well…
He
won at Doncaster, 2 seasons ago – and has finished placed in the last 2 runnings
of the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival.
That
is top class 2 mile handicap form – and he gets to run today from a mark 5lb
lower than when 4th in the Cheltenham race, in March.
I’m
not sure how to read the application of a first time tongue tie – I’m always a
bit nervous about those.
That
aside however, I think he has a very good chance, and with a racing weight of
just 10st 1lb, he’s going to feel like he’s running free !
Haydock
12:40 Russe Blanc was an eye catcher last time
out, when he made his seasonal debut at Carlisle – and under ideal conditions
today, he was always going to be a tip.
In
fact, I thought Christmas had come early when he opened up an 8/1 shot last
night – and whilst I didn’t expect that to last, I would have been more than
happy with the general opening quote of 6/1.
However, that didn’t last
either, so we had to settle for 4/1 early this morning (assuming we were
quick/lucky !).
The
thing about the race however, is that it will be such a stamina test, only a few
of the horses have any chance of surviving it…
It’s
very difficult to see beyond the top 3 in the betting – and Emperors Choice will
need to bounce back to form, if he is to feature.
I
wouldn’t put that beyond him – and if he does, Russe Blanc will have his work
cut out to beat him, but hopefully he’ll be up to the job. He’s thereofr eworth
saving stakes on.
Courtown Oscar is the other one for whom conditions
should be ideal – but he makes the market and I’m happy enough taking him on at
5/2.
Russe Blanc is back down to the mark from which he won
the Classics Chase, 2 seasons ago – so he’s well handicapped.
His
last time out run, should have put him spot on for today – so he’s in
form.
Kerry Lee has a superb record at Haydock – and he’s her
only runner at the track today.
Whilst he has Dickie in the saddle – and there’s no one
better, if a horse needs pushing and cajoling – which may well be the case
!
The
price is now shorter than I would like – but with ticks in all of those boxes, I
can’t say I’m too surprised…
1:15 Cyrus Darius is the second eye catcher
running on the card – and I was also very tempted to tip him…
He
caught the eye last time when wining at Ayr – and I think there’s a definite
chance that he’ll follow up today.
The
trouble is, this is a very competitive race - and it’s going to turn into a real
slog.
I
honestly don’t know whether that will suit Cyrus Darius – so I’m reluctantly
passing him over…
It
will suit Vintage Clouds – and the early money suggests that Danny Cook will be
aiming to make every post a winning one on him.
I
also think it will suit Big River – and receiving weight from all of his rivals,
he’s another big danger…
I’m
not so keen on the chances of Clan des Obeaux and Born Survivor – but mainly
because I don’t think they will be well suited by a war of attrition.
Seldom Inn is the correct outsider – though even he has a
squeak.
In
short, I came to the conclusion that the race was a bit too trappy to play
in.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Cyrus Darius was good enough to win – but I’m
not prepared to bet on it…
1:50 I find it very interesting that Richard
Johnson is riding at Haydock this afternoon.
He
could have had at least a couple of decent rides at Ascot – so the suggestion is
that one of his mounts is fancied at Haydock.
I
would like to think it is Russe Blanc (!) – but it’s more likely to be a Philip
Hobbs trained horse - so either Verni in this: or Robinhannon in the
next…
My
guess is that it’s Verni – and he is certainly sufficiently unexposed to have
improved further over the summer.
He’s
actually held by Clyne on form at todays track, 12 months ago.
I
would also expect Clyne to run well today – but he’s not got much scope off his
current mark.
Of
the others, then Limited Reserve is very interesting - provided he handless the
ground; whilst Diamond Fort and Chti Balco are two more who have got definite
chances…
At
the prices, then it’s the last name who makes most appeal – particularly as he’s
already a course winner in heavy ground.
That
said, with it impossible to eliminate many from consideration, it has to be a
watching race…
2:25 As you would expect, with a first prize of
nearly £60K, this is a fiercely competitive handicap…
There are some very unexposed, potentially big improvers,
at the head of the market – and whilst one of them could take the race apart, I
would be slightly concerned that that they won’t want to leave their seasons
(and possibly longer) behind, by enduring particularly tough races - and this
race could become very tough indeed !
Instead, I’m siding with a couple of the more exposed
horses – both of whom have already shown an ability to operate in desperate
ground…
The
first is Le Rocher.
He
won a Grade 1 hurdle on his UK debut, back in 2013.
He
was just 4 at the time – and the race was run on bottomless going.
He
followed that up, by winning a grade 2 event at Cheltenham – again on very heavy
ground.
He
would have been contesting favouritism for the Triumph hurdle that year, if
injury hadn’t intervened – and he wasn’t seen on the track again, until last
autumn.
A
low key return at Ascot, was followed by a much better run behind Clyne in the
Haydock fog.
It
was impossible to see what actually happened in that race, but the form is
strong – and Le Rocher followed it up by winning at Uttoxeter (again in heavy
ground)
He’s
only run twice since then: firstly when chasing home the high class Camping
Ground, at Fontwell last season – and then his seasonal debut at Chepstow, last
month.
He
probably needed that run – and the ground would have been too quick for him – so
the fact his mark was dropped 2lb on the back of it, was a real
bonus.
He’ll get his ground today – and Lizzy Kelly is back in
the saddle, claiming 3lb.
For
a Grade 1 winner, he’s extremely attractively handicapped on a mark of just 141
– and if he stays today trip (he’s bred to do so), then he has to run a very big
race…
Templeross is the other one I want on side.
He
was a very progressive hurdler last season – and was expected to improve for the
switch to fences this season.
However, it’s not happened – with him jumping
ponderously on both starts.
I’m not surprised to see him switched back to the
smaller obstacles today – and if he can pick up from where he left off last
season, he will run a big race.
He
should have no issue with the ground or trip – and I always like to have Jamie
Bargary in the saddle (it’s like a free 3lb !).
He’s
going to be carrying less that 10 stone – and that could prove crucial if it
turns into a war of attrition…
Of
the others, then I was very tempted by Champers on Ice – though the price on him
has now gone (and there’s a danger that first time blinkers could cause him to
run too freely).
Of
the unexposed horses, then The Worlds End is the most attractive – though I
could also see Dickies mount, Robbinhannon, running well at a big
price.
The
final one worthy of a mention, is The Dutchman on his debut for Colin
Tizzard.
If
he’s improved for the stable switch, he could be dangerous…
3:00 I got quite close to tipping in this race,
last weekend.
At
the time, Sizing John was still expected to run – but the likely heavy ground,
was a cloud hanging over him…
On
looking through the runners, I was very tempted by our old friend Tea for
Two.
He was 14/1 shot with some bookmakers – and with 3 places.
However, he was also a 10/1 shot with others – and just 2
places were on offer !
I’m
trying to make sure that everyone is able to get the odds that I quote on the
tips – regardless of which bookmakers accounts you have (or have not
!).
Consequently, I didn’t feel I could tip him…
In
truth, that wasn’t the only reason I resisted.
Whilst I felt he was
over-priced, I wasn’t convince that on heavy ground, he would be able to beat
Bristol de Mai – and if the ground wasn’t heavy, then he was going to struggle
to beat a few of them !
Roll
on the best part of a week – and we are where we are…
The
ground is heavy – Sizing John is absent - Bristol de Mai looks the most likely
winner.
His
current price is tight and I could actually see him drifting a little close to
the off, as the value seekers look to oppose him.
However, I do think that he
will take a bit of beating under his prime conditions.
There is a chance that Tea for Two could still get
placed:
There has to be a significant question mark over Cue Card
– and whilst Outlander did us a massive favour last time, the race did fall
apart a little that day – and he’s not the most consistent of
animals.
I
can’t see Traffic Fluid getting home – though I could see Shantou Flyer
outrunning his dismissive odds…
It
should be an intriguing race – but it’s one which I think Bristol de Mai will
win.
3:35 The final race of an epic days racing – and I
can only imagine what state the Haydock ground will be in, by the time it is
run…
For
that reason alone, I was tempted to go with Cloudy Too in this, as he is the
ultimate mud lover.
However, the 3m2f trip will stretch him (particularly if
Danny Cook rides him aggressively).
Baywing will cope with the ground – and the trip – I’m
just not sure that he’s particularly well handicapped…
Henri Parry Morgan is very well handicapped - but may not
relish conditions.
I’ve
got similar ground concerns, for both Lessons in Milan and Sir Ivan…
If I
were to play in the race, it would probably be with Catamaran de
Seuil.
The
problem with him is that he’s hard to get a handle on. However, he was a gutsy
winner last time out – and if he handles conditions, I would expect him to run a
big race.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Hayd
12:40 Russe Blanc 2pt win 4/1
Hayd
12:40 Emperors Choice 0.5pt win 5/1
Hayd
2:25 Le Rocher 1pt win 10/1
Hayd
2:25 Templeross 0.5pt win 16/1
Asc
2:05 Smad Place 2pr win 3/1
Asc
2:05 Top Notch 0.5pt win 11/4
Asc
2:40 Lil Rockerfeller 2pt win 3/1
Asc
3:15 Dandridge 1pt win 9/1
Mentions
Hayd
1:15 Cyrus Darius (O )
Hayd
1:50 Chti Balko (O )
Hayd
3:00 Bristol de Mai (P )
Hayd
3:35 Catamaran du Seuil (C )
Asc
12:55 Deauville Crystal (O )
Asc
1:30 Carnspindle (O )
