Daily write-up - Dec 28th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland – plus Catterick in the UK.

I was a little surprised to see only the meeting scheduled for Leicester, abandoned.

The recent cold snap seemed set to bite hard – but most of the tracks have managed to fend it off…

The meetings at Catterick and Limerick, are interesting in their own way – but they are relatively low grade affairs: the kind of meetings that I would cover on the blog.

Leopardstown on the other hand, has put on a tremendous card: with 2 Grade 1 events: a couple of good quality handicaps: and some fascinating novice events.

The trouble is, the Graded races and the novice events look quite predicable: whilst the handicaps look impossible !

Neither situation is good for betting – and I’m not inclined to either put up the blindingly obvious – or just take speculative punts on horses which I don’t actually think will win !

Consequently, there are no tips on the day.

However, I can still offer my thoughts – and maybe some of you will be able to find the odd angle from them (or at least derive a bit of entertainment !).

Leopardstown

12:50 Pertemps qualifiers are notoriously difficult races to solve – and this one is a particularly fiendish example.

For a start, there are 29 set to go to post – and with many of the runners relatively unexposed, an ability to guess is going to be almost as important as luck in running !

If I were to get involved with the race, my inclination would be to go for one of the relatively unexposed runners, which still has scope for improvement.

Unsurprisingly, 3 such horses head the market, in the shape of Mon Lino, Didero Vallis and Glenloe.

All 3 have a chance – but don’t offer any obvious ‘value’…

I actually prefer the claims of Mount Hanover – and whilst he did arguably offer a bit of value at an early 14/1, he’s now been backed in to 10/1 best…

Ashbury Boss and Turbojet are both still available at quite big prices (20/1+). They have the kind of profile I would look for - and can be given a chance.

Of the others, then Colms Dream is potentially well handicapped, if he is ready to do himself justice, after 12 months off the track.

The other possible angle on the race, is an in running play.

Red Devil Lads made all to win at Navan on his debut for Emmit Mullins.

He beat Mon Lino and Glenloe that day - so the form is good, in the context of this race.

He’s more exposed than ideal for a race of this nature – but he could have more improvement in him following the stable switch.

I particularly like Noel Fehily on horses that get uncontested leads - as he is peerless at judging fractions.

The horse can be backed at around 20 on BF – and if the race pans out as I expect, I’ll be a little surprised if he doesn’t trade a fair bit shorter in running…

1:20 Whilst she doesn’t have much in hand on the book – and is unproven over 3 miles, I would still expect Apples Jade to win this…

She’s a top class mare – who still appears to be improving and has an attitude to die for.

Her most recent run was in the Hattons Grace at Fairyhouse – where she destroyed both Nichols Canyon and Supasundae.

In fairness, she had a fitness advantage over them both that day – and the half mile shorter trip will have suited her better. However they will both have to go some, to turn round defeats of 9 lengths and 11 lengths, respectively.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see those gaps reduced – and maybe significantly reduced – but I would be slightly surprised to see the finishing places reversed.

The question therefore becomes whether Apples Jade is value, at even money, to win – and I find that impossible to call.

I would struggle to put her up, as she has only 1 pound in hand of Nichols Canyon on official ratings – and a trip doubt to overcome. But equally, I couldn’t oppose her…

In theory, Jezki can also be given a chance.

He won the Champion hurdle in 2014 and looked like he might do just as well as a stayer.
However, he’s struggled with injuries in recent seasons and doesn’t quite look the horse he once was…

If he were to bounce back, he would be right in the mix – but that is probably unlikely.

The most likely scenario, is Apples Jade will attempt to make all – and whilst Nichols Canyon and Supasundae will throw down challenges, between the final 2 hurdles, she’ll fend them off…

2:25 It’s obviously impossible to have a strong opinion on a race where most of the runners are making their debut.
However, Nearly Man couldn’t have much stronger connections: trained by Gordon Elliott; ridden by Jamie Codd and owned by the Rooneys.

He’s a 14/1 shot, which is a fair bit bigger than I expected…

3:00 This is a cracking renewal of the old ‘Lexus’ chase – but it’s hard to see past the favourite, Sizing John…

He was an impressive winner of last seasons Gold Cup – and looked as good as ever when wining the John Durkan at Punchestown on his reappearance.

There are no obvious chinks in his armour –and it will take a very good one to beat him…

In fairness, Yorkhill could be a very good one – though whether he will be primed to run for his life today, is a different matter.

If he was, then it could be interesting between the pair – but I suspect this will mainly be a fact finding mission for him.

I’m sure he will run well – but running well is likely to see him finish third or fourth…

Djakadam is officially the second best horse in the race – but he’ll be doing well to occupy that position at the finish.

Road to Respect is far more interesting – and if there is a bet in the race, then it is him, in the ‘without the favourite’ market.

Certainly if you can get 11/2 – then each way, he does look a bet to nothing.

He was a little unlucky not to beat Outlander last time – and retuned to a left hand track and with a hood in place, I can’t see him not reversing that form.

He’s an improving horse, who already has form that puts him in the mix for the places – it wouldn’t completely surprise me if he even gave the favourite something to think about…

3:35 Chain Gang was an eye catcher on his most recent outing at Navan – but I can’t see him getting involved in the finish of this race !

There may only be 6 runners -  but I still suspect you will end up getting 2 races for the price of one…

Sutton Place, Bacardys and Snow Falcon are different class to their 3 rivals – and are likely to finish miles in front of them.

Chain Gang may be up to finishing fourth – but if he does, it will be at a respectable distance !

As for who will win the race – then that’s not so easy to call…

Maybe Bacardys can put his previous chasing experience to good use and get the better of Sutton Place.

Catterick

3:15 It’s low grade stuff at Catterick – and this race is no exception – however it does see the appearance of Triopas…

He was an eye catcher 4 runs ago, when winning at Chepstow - and looking just he sort to run up a sequence.

He was surprisingly beaten next time out – but has won his last 2…

My advice, was to ‘back him until beaten’ (ignoring his first run !) – and I guess I will stick with that, though it does look like he’s got a task on today…

He faces a couple of serious rivals in the shape of Durbanville and American Life – and it wouldn’t be a great surprise, if either one were to beat him…

The former has been brought down from Scotland to contest this race – and James Bowen has been booked. That strikes me as intent !
Whilst American Life finished second to Triopas at Market Rasen last time – but is 10lb better off today, for a 3 length beating…

Personally, I won’t be backing Triopas today – I would much rather see him taking on a dozen average rivals (as he did last week, at Towcester).

That doesn’t mean he can’t win – just that he is little value to do so…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Tips

Non

Mentions

Leop 12:50 Mount Hanover (O )

Leop 1:20 Apples Jade (P )

Leop 2:25 Nearly Man (S )

Leop 3:00 Road to Respect (without Sizing John)