Daily write-up - Dec 3rd

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Leicester and Carlisle in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It’s day 2 of the Winter Festival at Fairyhouse - and there are 3 Grade 1 races on the card.

As you would expect, there are some top class (or potentially top class) horses running – but non of the races are as competitive as you might like…

As is invariably the case in Ireland nowadays, it’s simply Mullins v Elliott.

A total of 20 horses contest the 3 showpiece events: 8 of them are trained by Elliott; 6 by Mullins – and 6 by other trainers.

Worse than that, Elliott and Mullins are responsible for the first and second favourite in every race.

I’m sure there will be some really good races – but they are not easy to bet in…

In fairness, there are also a couple of decent handicaps on the card – and Mullins/Elliott don’t even train the favourite in one of them (though they do train the first and second favourite in the other !).

I’ve issued just the one tip on the day – and in the spirit of ‘if you can’t beat them, join them’, it’s trained by Willie Mullins !

Here’s the rationale for the tip – plus my thoughts on the other major races at Fairyhouse – and a couple at Leicester (including a veterans chase !)

Fairyhouse

12:30 From a TVB perspective, the most interesting aspect of this race, will be the opportunity to gauge the strength of the Irish challenge for the Triumph hurdle…

The race effectively looks a duel between Espoir D’Allen and Michouka.

It’s anyones guess as to which is the better – hopefully neither one will be up to the standard set by Apples Shakira !

1:00 The first Grade 1 of the afternoon – and the most open looking…

Mengli Khan heads the market, on the back of some positive noises from Gordon Elliott – but he hardly looks bomb proof.

Elliott is adamant that he’s better than his 2 other runner’s in the race – which narrows things down a little (assuming you believe him !).

JP McManus owns 3 of the other runners – so with Barry Geraghty on Le Richebourg, he could be the main danger to the favourite.

That said, he was well beaten by Red Jack, on his debut last season – so will need to have improved (which may well be the case).

It’s an impossible race to call with any confidence.

If I were to get involved, it would probably be a ‘value’ bet on Red Jack.

He appears to have been discarded by Geraghty – but that’s why you are getting a price. He is unbeaten in 3 runs under rules – and has been very impressive on each occasion.

As the old cliché says – he could be anything !

1:30 The second Grade 1 of the day, the Hattons Grace hurdle, effectively looks to be a match between Nichols Canyon and Apples Jade.

I would have a strong preference for Apples Jade – though I can’t be absolutely sure that’s not just caused by a dislike of Nichols Canyon ! (who I cant forgive for pippin Lil Rockerfeller, last season !).

Trying to be objective (!), I think that Nichols Canyon will struggle to give 7lb to a top class, race fit mare – running under her ideal conditions.

Admittedly, conditions should be perfect for Nichols Canyon, as well – but he will lack race sharpness.

I doubt there will be much between them – and I also doubt any of the others will be involved at the business end.

It’s not very imaginative – but Apples Jade to beat Nichols Canyon, looks by far the most likely outcome…

2:05 If this race was just about ability and comparative handicap rating, then I would be pretty confident that Meri Devie would win...

She’s already been placed twice in grade 1 events – and yet gets to race off a mark of just 136 today.

Furthermore, she’s achieved what she has, despite the fact that she’s not learnt how to race properly.

She’s pulled like a train in all of her races, so it’s testament to her ability, that she’s still had sufficient energy left, to run so well…

Willie Mullins fits her with a hood today – which has to be a good move.

Furthermore, the big field – and competitive nature of the race – mean that there will almost certainly be a good pace, which again should help her enormously.

The question in my mind, is whether she will be sufficiently street wise to win a race of this nature – and I don’t know on that score.

It could come down to the ride that Paul Townend gives her – but if I was going to put my trust in any jockey to deliver, there would be few who would sit above him…

If things don’t go right for her (and I think that’s how she will lose, if she does get beaten), then Ben Dundee looks the obvious one to take advantage.

However, he’s 4/1 favourite – and on a mark 10lb higher than last time, when he won a less competitive race.

He could well be up to the task – but it’s guesswork, in terms of how good he could be…

Needless to say in a race of this nature, there are plenty of others who can be given a chance.

At bigger prices, I looked a Château Conti, Veinard and Laverteen – and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them ran well.

Laverteen in particular, could be capable of springing a big surprise – provided he manages to sort out his jumping !

2:35 The Drinmore chasse is the final Grade 1 on the card – and it is dominated by Mullins/Elliott, with them responsible for 5 of the 6 runners…

I think the winner is highly likely to come from the top 3 in betting – though choosing which one, isn’t quite so easy…

Death Duty has been Elliotts big hope for a couple of seasons – but I’m not completely convinced by him.

That said, todays conditions will suit him ideally - so much as I was tempted, I’m not going to take him on…

If I had done, it would have been with Elliotts second string in the race, Dinaria Des Obeaux.

She’s a 4 year old mare, so receives over a stone in weight from her 2 main rivals.

She’s also looked a natural in her 2 outings over fences….

I guess the issues with her, are that it’s not easy to quantify the strength of her form: and she’s Gordon Elliotts second string in the race !

I may well have taken a chance at a price – but she was backed down to 4/1 last night – and that’s short enough…

The other one for major consideration, is Willie Mullins number 1 – Rathvinden.

He’s always been highly thought of – but has had numerous injuries which have kept him on the sidelines.

That said, he seems to be over those now – and his recent from has been of a good level.

3:10 The presence of Presenting Percy in this race, is puzzling me…

After he won on his chasing debut at Galway, all the talk was of the Sun Alliance.

However, he disappointed next time – and now is tackling handicap company, over a marathon trip…

There can be little doubt that he’s handicapped to win todays race – off a mark 1lb lower than the mark he won last years Pertemps final off – I just wonder if connections actually want to win…

I don’t get why he’s being stepped up to such a distance – it’s not what you’d expect for a horse being targeted at a Grade 1 chase.

And maybe that’s the crux – maybe he’s not being targeted at the Sun Alliance chase at all.

Maybe he’s being targeted at one of the Cheltenham handicaps – and today is about working on his mark (if he can’t win off todays mark, it’s likely to be dropped).

In the circumstances, I couldn’t side with him – but even ignoring him, I’m struggling to find one to side with…

Maybe his stablemate Mall Dini, may be the one – he should certainly relish todays marathon trip (plus the presence of Presenting Percy in the race, means he carries a couple of pounds less than would otherwise be the case).

The market near the off, is likely to advise on their respective chances…

Outside of those 2, it’s not a particularly inspiring race…

Poormans Hill is the obvious one – provided he’s recovered from his excellent effort in last weeks Troytown. However, he’s plenty short enough in the betting (6/1) with that concern hanging over him.

I would expect Undressed to run his race – and he may be capable of placing, at a big price.

Icantsay and He Rock’s are the only other ones of interest – but more from a back to lay in running perspective.

They both ran in last weeks Troytown and didn’t do too badly.

Both like to race prominently – though Icantsay does sometime have an issue with  setting off, which makes him a slightly dangerous one to get involved with !

Leicester

1:45 Leg 9 of the Veterans chase series – and as you all know by now, I do love my veterans races !

The trouble with this one, is that there are only 6 runners…

More than that, it’s over a shorter trip than normal (2m6f) – and will be run on relatively quick ground (Leicester have a no artificial watering policy, during the winter).

All this makes it a harder race to read, than should be the case…

With a straight bat, I think Fox Appeal is the most likely winner.

Conditions should suit him and he’s been running well this season.

That said, I don’t think that The Romford Pele has been harshly treated for his win at Aintree in Leg 7 of the series (raised 5lb).

If his jumping is better today – and he copes with the drop in trip, he could be hard to beat…

Astracad also ran in the Aintree race – and is effectively 9lb better off with The Romford Pele. He will also be better suited by the shorter trip…

I’m not so keen on Masters Hill or Grandads Horse – though both will appreciate the quick ground.
I would also be happy enough to oppose Loose Chips – if it weren’t for the fact that he’s likely to get an uncontested lead and is always a tough horse to pass…

Ultimately, with the 3 horses on my short list at the head of the market, I felt it was a race in which I couldn’t really get involved…

2:50 Grand Coureur was an eye catcher last time at Ludlow.

He was clearly the best horse in the race, but was given a poorly judged ride by his inexperienced jockey and paid the price late on.

If he has learnt from that (and assuming the horse is a little more tractable), then off the same mark today, he should win.

The trouble is, there is a stiff finish at Leicester, so if he does get his fractions wrong, he’ll not get home.
Also, the horse has been well found in the market – and there is no margin in a quote of 2/1 against some reasonable rivals.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Fairy 2:05 Meri Devie 1pt win 7/1

Mentions

Fairy 1:00 Red Jack (S )

Fairy 1:30 Apples Jade (P )

Fairy 2:35 Dinaria Des Obeaux (O )

Fairy 3:10 Mall Dini (S )

Leic 1:45 Fox Appeal (O )

Leic 2:50 Grand Coureur (C )