Saturday 30 December 2017

Review of the day

It was never going to be easy today: Too much racing and too much uncertainty !

I probably shouldn’t say it, but in the circumstances, I wouldn’t have been particularly unhappy to finish the day level – so the fact the tips made a profit, was a definite bonus !

That was thanks to Ellens Way, who ploughed her way through the mud to win the last at Fontwell.
As I said this morning, whilst it wasn’t a ‘Big’ race – she was an official eye catcher - and did have conditions in her favour, so I felt obliged to tip her…

I guess I wasn’t overly surprised to see her well backed: the 9/1 early, was 11/2 at 11:00 – and 7/2 at the off.
There’s not a lot I can do about that: she had a good chance in a relatively weak race – and she subsequently hacked up…

None of the days other tips managed to do quite so well – though most ran with at least an element of credit…

At Kempton, neither Beggars Wish nor Bad Boy du Pouldu, were any match for  Hells Kitchen or Master Whitaker.
That said, Beggars Wish was running on nicely at the end, having got outpaced. I would be very interested in him over 3 miles…

Next up it was Abracadabra Sivola – and I’m not sure how I should view his run…
He was dropped out, at the back of the field, which I didn’t see as a positive.
However, he travelled very nicely - and with a circuit to go, had jumped his way into fifth place.

At that point, I honestly thought he was going to go very close – but the leaders then seemed to just get away from him down the back straight.

He wasn’t given an unduly hard time – and he still appeared to have something left at the end of the race.

I’ll find it difficult to resist getting involved with him again, the next time he runs…

I think I made a mistake with Lake Takapuna, over at Leopardstown.
The horse had solid credentials (something that couldn’t be said for a number of his rivals) – and was 16/1 in an 18 runner race.

That would shout ‘each way’ to most – but put him up win only.
He ran well – but could only finish forth.

Finally, in terms of the tips, Midnight Maestro moved well in the last at Kempton – but he was never moving as well as Golan Fortune.
He wasn’t a particularly obvious one – but was incredibly strong in the market.

And low and behold, the market had it right, as he shot clear of Kildisart, up the home straight.

Midnight Maestro meanwhile faded into fifth place – looking like a horse who would benefit from going back down in trip…

As for the Mentions, then Simply the Betts ran a fair race in the Kempton opener – but found 3 too good !

Mia’s Storms jumping let her down in the Feltham.
I really hadn’t foreseen that, as she had been virtually foot perfect on her 2 previous outings over fences.
However, the incessant pace in the race was too much for her and her jumping went to pieces.

Might Bite won the King George – but not as I’d expected…
Maybe I’m judging him unfairly, as Bristol de Mai served it up to him from the off, so it says much for his ability that he was not only able to break that one -  he still had sufficient in reserve to fend off 2 late challengers.

The trouble is, the late challenges came from a couple of outsiders – and that left a bit of a disappointing feel about things…

The final Mention was Different Gravey – and he ran OK at Wincanton, but probably did too much, too soon.
Once again however, he showed that significant ability remains, so it will be a question of biding our time and trying to get on him when he is presented with the right opportunity.

For completeness: both Estoir Dallen and Footpad won in Ireland.
The former was workmanlike: but the latter was very impressive.
So much so, that I can’t help but feel that it will take a very good one to beat him in the Arkle.

Finally, Highway One O One won his novice at Fontwell – and whilst no one was going to get rich backing him, he did at least go someway to justifying his inclusion as an eye catcher.

TVB.

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