Daily write-up - Nov 11th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Wincanton, Aintree and Kelso in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland.

There’s not the same quality to this afternoons racing, that there was last Saturday – and worse than that, it’s difficult to find many betting opportunities !

As is always the case, I spent a couple of hours yesterday, just after the declarations had been released, trying to find potential bets for today…

I managed to find a few horses of interest – but when the prices started to appear, early evening, it quickly became apparent that my thinking was in line with that of the odds compilers !

Once again, I was shocked at just how short horses can be priced up, for what superficially at least, appear to be competitive handicaps !

I was therefore left with the dilemma of tipping horses at prices I feel are too short – finding alternatives in the races – or leaving the races alone.

I opted for a blend of all 3 – lets hope I got the calls right !

Here’s my rationale for the tips – plus my thoughts on some of the days other races…

Wincanton

1:15 Achille is by far the most interesting runner in this…

However, he’s not been seen for over 700 days – and he’s been installed a 4/1 shot !
In truth, he could easily be much better than his current mark of 122 – and Venetia is more than capable of getting them ready after a long absence – but all the same…

My inclination would be to wait and see if he drifts in price, nearer the off.

That can happen with hers, as they are often put in too short (which I think is probably the case here).
Generally, a drift doesn’t make a lot of difference to how they perform – so if he were to get to 7 or 8/1, then I would become very interested…

1:50 This is a very tight looking mares handicap – which I really can’t see an angle in to…
Cases can be made for virtually all of the runners – so it’s a matter of paying your money and making your choice !

My original choice was Secret Door – for whom the booking of 7lb claimer, James Bowen, could prove key.

However, she’s close to the top of the market, priced up at 6/1, and I really can’t see much margin in that price….

On balance, I think it’s a race which is probably best watched…

3:00 From a pure handicapping perspective, it’s very difficult to look beyond London Prize in this.

He proved himself to be a decent hurdler last season – winning the Imperial Cup, back in March.

He also performed with credit on his 2 other runs over timber last season – though he lacked the pace to really make his mark, on quick ground over minimum trips.

That’s a concern today – and presumably accounts for the fitting of first time cheek pieces (which should sharpen him up).

However, since his last run over hurdles, he’s returned to the flat – and has take his form to a different level.

Wins at Goodwood and Newcastle in the summer, were followed by a courageous second to a handicap good thing, in the Cesarewich.

As a result of those 3 performances, his flat handicap mark has risen 18lb.

If he can translate that improvement back over jumps, then he really should win…

As I said however, the concern is that he ideally wants more of a test of stamina than he’s going to get today: however, there does look to be plenty of potential pace in the race – and hopefully that coupled with the softer ground and cheek pieces, will be sufficient to see him to come home in front…

If he is beaten, then I think Flying Tiger is the one most likely to take his scalp.
He won the Fred Winter 4 year old hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival.

He races off a mark 7lb higher today – but is clearly an improver – and his last time out run on the flat, in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge stakes at Ascot, was very eye catching…

He ran to a mark of around 108 that day – which suggests that a hurdling mark of 141 could be lenient…

I have no concerns with him over the trip and if London Prize does find everything happening a bit too quickly, then hopefully he will be the one who to take advantage…

3:35 I’ve spent a lot of time through the week, looking at this race – and at various different points, considered tipping a number of different horses !

Those who I nearly sided with, include Double Shuffle and Southfield Royale – but I resisted with both, and I’m happy I did (at this point in time, anyway !).

The overnight rain has changed the complexion of the race and it’s now a contest which is more likely to be won by a stayer.

In truth, there are still a number of credible alternatives – but most of them have found their way to the head of the market…

Eventually, I decided to side with Henllan Harri – simply because he has ticks in just about every box, and can be backed at a double figure price…

He won last seasons B365 Gold Cup at Sandown – and gets to race from a mark just 4lb higher this afternoon.

When you take into account the claim of James Bowen – he will effectively be racing off a similar mark.

He likes to race prominently (which is always a plus point in these big field handicaps) – and will have no issue, whatsoever the ground.

He has sneaked into the handicap with a weight of just 10st2lb – and it’s hard not to see him running a big race.

If I have any concerns, they are that there are a number of prominent racers in the field – and whilst he doesn’t have to lead, you can never be sure how that will work out.

There is also the chance that he will lack the class to win a race such as this, over 3 miles - though it could well turn into a war and I suspect he will handle that better than most.

In summary, it’s a very difficult race to call – but I think Henllan Harri is worth a small play at a fair price.

Aintree

1:40 When I first looked at this race yesterday, I narrowed it down to 4 horses: Louis Vac Pouch, Winningtry, Forza Milan and Holly Bush Henry.
The first 3 named are the potentially progressive runners: with Holly Bush Henry the one who could be well handicapped, based on old form.

Watching videos of their previous races, I decided that Louis Vac Pouch was the one I was most interested in – and I was hoping to tip him.

However, an opening price of 3/1 soon became a best price of 2/1 – and in a 10 runner handicap, that’s just too short…

I still think he’s the most likely winner – but far too much can go wrong in a race, to consider backing at those kind of odds (over time, there’s no margin).

I could have left the race alone – but I figured Holly Bush Henry was worth a small play.

He’s been in great form this season – re-finding his excellent form of 18 months ago.

Back then he managed to win a decent handicap off a mark of 134 – which his is precisely the mark he runs from this afternoon.

He only managed a sixth placing on his most recent run at Cheltenham – but that was a strong contest and a few things went wrong for him. I think it can be overlooked.

Ultimately, he may not be good enough to beat Louis Vac Pouch (or indeed Winninrtry or Forza Milan !).
However, he represents a different angle into the race – and one which I feel may have been slightly under-estimated by the market.

He is therefore worth a small play…

2:15 A little like the previous race, the horse of most interest in this race, has also been backed down to a point where it no longer represents any value…

This time, it is On Tour who has been the subject of serious support.

He finished second in the corresponding race, 12 months ago and runs off a mark 2lb lower today. He also has Mitchell Bastyan in the saddle, claiming a further 5lb.

He opened at 8/1 last night – which was fair – but he’s 4/1 this morning, and that is too short, in such a competitive race…

Instead, I’m opting for a more speculative play on the bottom weight, The Fresh Prince…

He ran well at this course last season, and was still in the lead when falling at the fourth last fence.
He followed up that run, by winning at Uttoxeter – under todays rider, Harrison Beswick.

His remaining runs last season, were reasonable – but he’s always looked like the kind of horse who will improve with age…

Despite making his seasonal debut, I have no concerns about his fitness – I’m more concerned that he could be too fresh !

Hopefully young Harrison will be able to control his exuberance – as I’m pretty sure he’ll be keen to try and make all.
There are no other front-runners in the race – so at very least he should be a solid pre-race back, to lay in-running.
However, with just 9st7lb on his back (taking in to account his riders allowance), the horse is going to feel like he’s been set free.

I just think there’s chance he might be able to pinch the race from the front – and at 20/1 he is worth a minimal risk.

3:25 Ballyhill is the third horse on the Aintree card which I was hoping to tip – but don’t feel able to (because of his price).

In truth, I’m not surprised that he has been put in very short – as he’s a progressive novice taking on more seasoned handicappers.

He may well take the field apart - and Zac Bakers 5lb claim will be no hindrance to his chances..

However, he is still just a novice – and up against much more experienced jumpers, 6/4 is plenty short enough…

I think Ut Majeur Aulmes is a better bet in the race…

He’s a consistent horse – who is quite capable of winning off todays mark – and ran really well on his seasonal debut at Newton Abbot, last month.

He will have no issue with the trip or the ground – and Dickie looks like a significant jockey booking…

Half of his rivals are making their seasonal debut, so could easily benefit from the run: whilst a couple don’t really look good enough.

He therefore looks an excellent EW bet.

I would expect him to run his race – and that should see him in the first 3.

Plus, if Ballyhill doesn’t perform, then there’s a chance he could be good enough to win…

Kelso

2:00 I tipped Cooking Fat when he ran in a decent novice handicap chase at Carlisle, last Sunday.

Unfortunately, he unseated his rider at the third last that day – and whilst I don’t think he would have won, it was a bit too far out to be adamant.

He certainly could have placed – and today’s race isn’t as strong as last Sundays.

Furthermore, Brian Hughes returns to the saddle, replacing the 3lb claimer who rode last week.

He faces a couple of unexposed rivals – but I was still hopeful I would be able to tip him.
However, a price of 7/2 is tight enough in the circumstances…

In truth, it is probably fair enough in a 7 horse race where a couple of the runners don’t have an obvious chance.

That said, I didn’t feel quite confident enough to be drawn in to tipping him…

Naas

There are some really interesting races at Naas – but again, precious few betting opportunities…

In the 1:45, it will be fascinating to see high-class flat horse, Pallasator, making his hurdling debut for Gordon Elliott.

He’s taken on by a couple of serious bumper horses from last season, in the shape of Next Destination and Paloma Blue.

I’ve no idea how it will all turn out – but it should make for interesting viewing !

Elliott also has another stable debutante running in the handicap hurdle at 2:55…

This time it is Diamond Cauchois, a horse who was on my radar for most of last season, when trained by Sue Bramhall.

You have to think that Elliot is likely to have improved the horse – and whilst conditions won’t be perfect for it – and 3/1 is a short price in a 13 runner handicap - it will be no surprise if he wins…

The Beginners chase at 3:30 is arguably the most interesting race of the entire day !
Bacardys, Snow Falcon, De Plotting Shed and Jett, all have the potential to be very good over fences.

I’m a little surprised that Bacardys has been installed an odds on shot – and I have been laying him at around even money on BF.

I’m not saying he won’t win – but that price seems too short to me, considering the quality of the opposition.

If there is a bet in the race at current prices, then it’s probably De Plotting Shed.
He ran really well when runner up to Presenting Percy at Galway – and race fitness maybe able to swing things in his favour this afternoon.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Win 3:00 London Prize 1.5pt win 5/1

Win 3:00 Flying Tiger 0.5pt win 11/2

Win 3:35 Henllan Harri 1pt win 12/1

Ain 1:40 Holly Bush Henry 0.5pt win 12/1

Ain 2:15 The Fresh Prince 0.5pt win 20/1

Ain 3:25 Ut Majeur Aulmes 0.5pt EW 8/1

Mentions

Win 1:15 Achille (S )

Win 1:50 Secret Door (O )

Ain 1:40 Louis Vac Pouch (P )

Ain 3:25 Ballyhill (P )

Kel 2:00 Cooking Fat (P )

Naas 2:55 Diamond Cauchois (P )

Naas 3:30 De Plotting Shed (O )