Daily write-up - Dec 30th

There are just the 3 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Haydock and Taunton.

The excesses of the past week, mean that it’s a very quiet Saturday.

Newbury host the Grade 1 Challow hurdle – but aside from that there, are just five class 2/3 handicaps to get stuck in to.

It certainly doesn’t feel like a Saturday !

In fairness, the handicaps have all attracted reasonable numbers – but they are mighty tricky.

And solving them won’t be helped by the state of the ground as it’s likely to be bottomless at both Haydock and Newbury…

I was always going to be able to find a few tips on the day – the problem was that I could have found a few tips in each of the races !

They really are open looking…

Having considered my options, I finally decided on just the 2 tips – and a few mentions.

I do think that some of the Mentions could be worth backing – you just need to be prepared to wait for the ‘right’ prices, before you get involved.

Anyway, here’s the rationale for the tips – plus my thoughts on the other main races.

Newbury

1:50 I quite like the look of Dynamite Dollar in this.

He’s the only runner on the card fro Paul Nicholls – and the only ride for Bryony Frost.

He’s also got some very decent form, in novice races.

He made his hurdling debut back in October and beat Lostintranslation by 2 lengths at Chepstow.

Following a win at Newbury, early this month, Lostintranslation is now rated 135 – 1lb higher than the mark that Dynamite Dollar runs from today…

He followed that up by giving Thomas Patrick 13lb and an 11 length beating.
That one now runs off a mark of 125 (though has probably improved in the interim).

Both of those runs suggest that Dynamite Dollar could be a 140+ animal….

His 2 most recent runs haven’t gone quite so well – but they were in listed/graded company.

On the first of them, he looked to find 2 miles a bit short, at Haydock: whilst on his most recent outing, he wouldn’t settle at Sandown and was well beaten by On The Blind Side.
In truth, there was little shame in that defeat, as the winner is high class.

I’m hopeful that connections will have learnt form those reverses - and provided he handles the ground, I think Dynamite Dollar can show himself a well handicapped horse (and that’s excluding Byrony Frosts 5lb claim !).

Needless to say, there are plenty of dangers: Brave Eagle and Diable de Sivola are 2 others, who may be better than their current mark; whilst Huntsmans Son goes in search of a hatrick – and has James Bowen in the saddle. However, he faces much stronger opposition today..

It’s impossible to completely dismiss the other 4 runners – but each of them has a significant question mark over them, so aren’t easy to recommend.

It’s a competitive race – but I can see an argument for Dynamite Dollar being favourite and I’m happy enough to have him on side at 13/2.

2:25 When you reach the point where you feel you could tip just about every runner in a race, then it’s time to move on to another race !

That’s pretty much how I felt about this race, with my allegiance switching from runner to runner, as I assessed their form…

Potters Legend was the first one I was attracted to, on the back of his decent run in the Ladbroke Trophy.

That was in first time blinkers – and he was a bit too free.

I wouldn’t expect them to light him up as much today – and off a 4lb lower mark in a

weaker race, he must have a decent chance.

However, so too do many of the others…

If Wuff stays the trip, then I would expect him to go very close.

He’s a horse who has always looked capable of being a fair bit better than his rating of 130.That said, he is also a horse who has disappointed on more than one occasion…

I can understand why Knockanrawley is favourite.
He won the corresponding race 3 years ago – and has a good chance of following up today from a mark just 3lb higher.

He will handle the heavy ground – but so too will Shotgun Paddy – and based on their running in the Eider chase last February, he should finish very close to Knockanrawley. Certainly closer than their respective odds of 9/1 and 4/1 imply…

Daklondike is the potential improver in the race: though Vieux Lille has also got plenty of scope for improvement, if he can sort out his jumping…

Henlan Harri and Grand Vision don’t strike me as obvious winners – but both have form that could put them right in the mix.

And whilst it’s hard to make a case for Tanit River on recent evidence, he looked sensational when winning at Chepstow in January, and runs off a mark just 3lb higher today.

If connections have got him back to peak form, he could definitely outrun his odds…

The definitive ‘watching race’ !

3:00 This is another very difficult race to unravel…

The prices of the top 4 in market are separated by just a point – and to an extent, it is a case of paying your money and making your choice…

The problem is, all of the runners are facing a challenge which they’ve not faced before ie. 2m4f on heavy ground.

Coupled with the fact that you are all young improvers, and you do end up with a bit of a lottery…

I make Poetic Rhythm just about the most likely winner.

He ran very well in an extremely strong contest at Cheltenham, last time – and should have the physical maturity to cope with todays conditions.

That is a concern with Dame Rose.

She’s a 4 year old mare – and whilst she gets weight from her rivals because of that, her ability to cope with heavy ground and a step up in trip, have to be open to doubt.

If she does, then she may be capable of winning – but it’s a big ‘if’…

Kilbricken Storm and Way back Then are the 2 other market principals – but they have only run 4 times over hurdles between them, so there’s a lot of guesswork required…

In fact, if guessing is your thing, then I’d be more tempted by Mulcahys Hill, at a price…

He’s only run once over hurdles – but that was in the soft at Ffos Las. He also won a PTP in the heavy, so should handle conditions.

At 16/1 in a place, he may be worth a tiny speculative play…

Haydock

1:35 Fingerontheswich was an eye catcher on his most recent outing and I think he is worth siding with in this…

That run was in the Betfair Stayers handicap hurdle over todays course and distance and he finished sixth, behind subsequent Grade 1 winner, Sam Spinner.

Just at face value, that looks pretty hot form, but I was particularly taken with the way that Fingerontheswitch travelled through the race.

My initial feeling, post race, was that he maybe didn’t handle the soft ground – but on watching it again, he seemed to get through the ground well enough and was staying on at the end.

Todays race represents a significant drop in class for him – and I’m hopeful that he’ll be able to capitalise on that.

He would have won a similar race to todays on his penultimate run, if he’d not bumped into a very well handicapped rival: whilst his last win over hurdles was in a class 3 race, off a mark just 4lb lower than he races off today.
In short, he’s in the right race grade – and running off the right mark.

His main rivals appear to be Dandy Duke and Thomas Patrick – and they are both young horses with progressive profiles.

However, both are taking a step up in class this afternoon and it remains to be seen whether they are up to the challenge…

2:10 3m3f on heavy ground – this really is going to take some getting.

It could easily end up a case of ‘last man standing’ – the tricky bit is figuring out who will be the last man !

Instinctively, you are drawn to Emperors Choice: partially because he used to thrive in such conditions – and partially because he is trained by Venetia.
However, he has looked a shadow of his former self, recently…

I’ll be surprised if Lessons in Milan manages to complete: whilst there is also a big question mark in that regard, over Gold Opera (he’s unproven over the trip).

West of the Edge and Streets of Promise both have a chance: but the former doesn’t look overly well handicapped; whilst the latter ran poorly on her only start this season.

At a price, I could take a chance on either of them – and as I said on the forum last night, the 14/1 about Streets of Promise, was of some interest.

However, she is now 10/1 – and the margin in that, bearing in mind the risk, is minimal…

Whiskey Chaser is the one I think most likely to win.

He won in the heavy on his seasonal debut at this course – and could be capable of following up this afternoon.
The biggest issue for him, is the step up in class. His win earlier this month was in a class 4 event – whilst this is a class 2 contest.

However, to offset that, he does get into todays race with bottom weight - and with conditions as they are, that has to be a bonus…

At 6/1, I would take a chance on him – but 5/1 is the best price on offer, and that feels about the right price (ie. no margin).

2:45 If I could get a price, I would be tipping another Donald McCain horse in this…

I think Federici is the one to beat  - but he’s a 7/2 shot and faces 3 or 4 potentially dangerous rivals.

That said, the form of his 2 most recent runs, is strong: a win at Kelso followed up by a 4^th in the class 1 Becher chase at Aintree.

Non of his rivals can match that – and I also expect him to be able to cope with the heavy ground…

The question is whether 7/2 is an acceptable price…

It might be: though it’s possible to make a case for at least 4 of his rivals:

Church Hall and Wolf Sword were both good winners last time – and may be able to defy their new marks.
However, I see Crievehill and Granville Island as bigger dangers…

The former was a little disappointing last time – but that was in a particularly strong race.

He also ran without the hood which he had worn when successful on his previous run – and possibly found the ground a bit quicker than ideal.

Circumstances today have all moved in his favour – and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him run very well.

Similarly Granville Island has much more suitable circumstances today, than he did when he last ran.

A drop in trip, first time cheek pieces and a 4lb lower mark should all contribute to a much improved showing – the question is whether the improvement will be sufficient to get him home in front…

I’m sorely tempted by Federici – but there is nothing in a price of 7/2 considering how dangerous some of his rivals could be…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Newb 1:50 Dynamite Dollar 1pt win 13/2

Hayd 1:35 Fingerontheswitch 1pt win 7/1

Mentions

Newb 2:25 Potters Legend (O )

Newb 3:00 Mulcahys hill (S )

Hayd 2:10 Whiskey Chaser (P )

Hayd 2:45 Federici (O )