Daily write-up - Feb 24th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Kempton, Newcastle and Chepstow in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

With a polar vortex apparently poised to strike from the East, this could be the last decent days racing we get for a while – we better try to make the most of it !

There is likely to be significant variation in the ground conditions across the meetings: with the going described as ‘Good’ at Kempton – and ‘Heavy’ at Newcastle.

So I’ve been on the hunt for mud larks in the north – and speedsters in the south.
Sounds simple enough

Overall, it’s a pretty standard days racing for a Saturday.

The proximity of Cheltenham can be felt – with today virtually the last day, when serious festival contenders will be able to throw their hat in to the ring.

I’ve ended up with just the 3 tips on the day – which is light.
I had hoped to tip a couple more – but others beat me to them and the prices went.
Such is life, I guess…

Here’s the rationale for the tips that I was able to issue – plus my thoughts on the days other big races…

Kempton

1:15 I think it is worth taking a risk on Our Kaempfer in this.

He’s been badly out of form, recently – pulling up on 3 of his last 5 runs.

However, as a consequence, his mark has dropped and he is now attractively handicapped.

He had a wind op. prior to his most recent run, at Huntingdon – and didn’t run too badly that day (at least giving him something to build on).

Cheek pieces are applied for the first time today – and he is dropped down in trip (a combination that I like).
He is also running at a track where he’s had previous success (2 wins from 3 runs) – and is back on his preferred quick ground.

In short, there are plenty of reasons for taking a risk on him, at the available odds.

If he’s not up to the job, then this becomes a tough race to solve.

The Mighty Don had 3 goes as an eye catcher without winning – but there is a chance he could win today, on his first run since being taken off the list.

That said, there is no margin in a price of 7/1.

Monbeg Legend looks to be the best of Nicky Hendersons 3 runners – and he also has a chance: as to does Django Django, for Jonjo.

Whilst at a slightly bigger price, Awesome Rosie has possibilities.

In short, whilst Our Kaempfer is far from guaranteed to run his race – if he does, then I think he could be up to winning !

1:50 On official ratings, Cryname is the one to beat in this.
He has at least 8lb in hand of his rivals – and only has to concede them 5lb.

However, he would prefer a bit of cut in the ground – so conditions may not be ideal for him.

Conversely, they could be perfect for his main rival, The Unit, as he has a marked preference for quick ground…

Both For Good Measure and Petrou have a bit to find on official ratings – but couldn’t be confidently dismissed.

It’s impossible to find an angle on the race without knowing exactly how the ground will ride – and also how the race will be run.

Cyrname should win – but is certainly not bomb proof.

2:25 It’s moderately tempting to take on Redicean in this.

He has comfortably won his 2 races over hurdles – but the form is worth very little.

In fairness, he does have plenty of scope for improvement and should be suited by the prevailing conditions – though whether that entitles him to be an odds-on shot, is a different matter…

On ratings, he’s not even the best horse in the race, so he certainly has enough to prove.

In fact, if the going were a bit softer, I would probably take him on with Beau Gosse.
He’s been sent over from France by Guillaume Macaire – and that in itself seems significant.

However, all of the horses form is on very sot ground, so it’s anyone’s guess whether he will handle the prevailing conditions.
If he does, then I think he is the most likely winner.

Of the others, then I am moderately interested in the outsider of the field, Bid Adieu.
He has his first run for Venetia, having moved over from Ireland.

He’s not run for nearly 3 months – and Venetia is out of form – so I can’t really recommend backing him.

However, it’s very interesting that she has pitched him into this graded event, rather than an ordinary novice race.

I suggest you keep an eye on him in the market – just in case !

3:00 This is a fascinating race – though I’ve no idea what will win it !

There are 3 very decent flat racers making their debut in it, in the shape of Humphrey Bogart, Scarlet Dragon and Carntop – and any of the 3, could have sufficient natural ability to win.

Ofcourse, it’s a big ask, debuting over hurdles in Grade 2 event – but connections clearly think they are pretty useful (or at least, that they could be !).

Of those with form in the book, then Mont des Avaloirs sets the standard, on his third in the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle. That could be very decent form…

When you throw into the mix, Destrier, Michaels’ Mount and Shoal Bay – all of whom have shown decent form - and have still got plenty of scope for improvement – you see what a tricky race it is…

If I were to get involved, I would be inclined to go for one of the more experienced runners.

At 14/1, Shoal Bay is probably the ‘value’ call in the race.

That said, I’m not sure why Carntop can be backed at 33/1, when the 2 other hurdling debutantes are much shorter (but their form isn’t much better).
He could be worth a tiny speculative play.

3:35 I’m a bit irritated that I didn’t get involved with this race yesterday…

I had a good look a the field when the final decs were released on Thursday and came to the conclusion that Theatre Territory looked overpriced at 14/1.

However, I wanted to be sure of the state of the ground, so I decided to wait before issuing (in fairness, there didn’t seem a particular rush).

Roll on to this morning, and you can’t now beat 8/1 on Theatre Territory…

I guess I would still take that price, if I felt there was any margin in it – but in such an open race, I’m not convinced there is…

Certainly, you can give a good chance to at least half a dozen runners – and half a chance to a few more !
Master Dee would probably head the list of dangers – and it’s strange that he is now the same price at Theatre Territory (as he was half the price yesterday).

Go Conquer is another who I was tempted by. He was massively impressive when winning at Ascot on his penultimate run – the question is whether the handicapper has now got to him…

Tintern Theatre will go very close: provided he has recovered from his slog in the Haydock mud – and his jumping hold up: whilst I wouldn’t completely dismiss 2016 winner Theatre Guide.

Art Mauresque has the class – and loves the track: though his stamina for the trip is unproven – as his ability to cope with a big field.

And then there is the favourite, Acting Lass, who definitely has a chance !

It really is a tough race to call – and having missed the boat with Theatre Territory, I figured the best call was to swerve it !

4:10 There are a couple of eye catchers running in this, in the shape of Kayf Blanco and Rothman – and both are capable of winning…

The trouble is, so are the other 6 runners in the race – it really is that open !

Kayf Blanco was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Wetherby when he finished second – and I tipped him last time, when he was beaten a neck into third, at the same venue.

He’s been raised 2lb for that run – but is still handicapped to win.
However, his jumping isn’t great – and that has cost him the last twice.

Kempton isn’t an easy track to jump round – and there is a definite possibility that it will catch him out.
If he does jump round efficiently, then I think he’ll win – but at 4/1, I’m not inclined to take the risk…

There is nothing wrong with Rothmans jumping (touch wood !) – it’s his finishing effort which tends to come up short…

I would say he is a decent bet to be placed this afternoon – but not such a good one to win.

My feeling is that when he does come good, it will be by completely outclassing his rivals – and I can’t see that happening this afternoon.

A case of sorts can be made for all of the other runners – so it’s going to be a question of which one things drop right for on the day.

That could easily be Kayf Blanco – or possibly even Rothman – but just as easily it could be something else…

Chepstow

3:05 I’m pretty sure that Zeroshadesofgrey is going to run a really big race in this…

Having shown very little for a year, he had cheek pieces applied for the first time at Wincanton on his penultimate run, and the impact was marked.

He led for most of the race: travelling strongly and jumping well, before getting collared on the run to the last.

It was a similar story last time at Catterick, when he appeared to have his field in trouble turning in, but had done too much, too soon and didn’t get home…

He’s dropped back to 2 miles today, which is an interesting move for a horse who was running over 3 miles, quite recently,

However, his new run style seems to suggest it is a good move…

There are a couple of other factors which significantly add to his appeal today: firstly, he has had a wind op since his last run. If he was struggling to breath when put under pressure that might explain why he tied up close home.

The other thing is that he should get an uncontested lead – and that is always a positive.

This doesn’t look like the strongest of races – and if Trevor Whelan (on his only ride of the day), is able to dominate, then I can see Zeroshadesofgrey running his rivals ragged up the long Chepstow straight.

3:40 I really had hoped to be able to tip Coeur Blimey in this…

He opened at 6/1 last night – which was a perfectly acceptable price.

However, just before 7pm, the Racing Post issued their ‘Punt’ email – and Tom Segal had put up the horse.
It’s odds immediately crashed to 5/1, best – lower elsewhere…

In truth, I would probably still have taken a risk at 5/1 – but it was 4/1 this morning by the time I could tip, and you have to draw the line somewhere…

The thing is, Coeur Blimey has plenty to prove.

He’s stepping up in trip significantly today – and that could go either way.

He’s also a suspect jumper – and whilst that may be improved by the longer distance (and slower pace), it may not.

I’m pretty sure he is well handicapped – but that may not be sufficient to see him home in front…

This probably isn’t the strongest of races – though the top 6 in the betting all have a chance.
Connetable looks the biggest danger – particularly as Bryony Frost (and her 3lb claim) looks to have been sent to Chepstow, primarily to ride him.

That said, I would also give Poker Play a chance.

He’s clearly well thought of and showed definite promise, last time.

Book of Gold, Saint Ladylime and This is it, should all run well – which is why I can’t bring myself to chase the price on Coeur Blimey.

If he does drift out to 5/1+, close to the off (as the Tom Segal effect wears off), then I wouldn’t put anyone off getting involved with him.

But at 4/1, I’m afraid that I have to pass…

4:15 If I could be sure that Eastlake was primed to run in this, I would definitely take a chance on him.

He was an eye catcher when he last ran, back in October.

The absence doesn’t particularly concern me – and I see the fact that he’s had a wind op in the interim as a positive.

He might be getting on now (he’s 12), but I suspect he retains most of his ability – and he is now rated a pound lower than his last winning mark.

However, if he runs poorly this afternoon, he is likely to be dropped a good few pounds – and that would put him on a good mark for the spring festivals…

In truth, he may no longer be good enough to win at Cheltenham or Aintree, but I suspect connections would rather get his mark down and find out, than take today’s prize and lose any chance of winning a big one…

I may be wrong of course: and If I am, the betting will likely advise.

But without that knowledge, I feel I have to swerve him.

In truth, this is a trappy race.

Based on his win at Newbury, Overtown Express is very much the one to beat, but he seems to have gone off the boil.

Rock on Rocky is one who should run his race – and whilst he is held on form by Overtown Express, if forced, I would probably side with him…

Newcastle

2:45 He’s a very risky one – but I simply have to take a chance on Thebarrowman in this…

Trained in Ireland by Adrian Keatley, I find it fascinating that a trainer, not associated with raids on the UK, has decided to run a novice in the Eider chase.

Undoubtedly, on the form book, he has a lot to prove: but the fact that in his 10 race career, he has already competed twice in Grade 1 events, seems to show how highly connections rate him.

The most recent of those was at Leopardstown over Christmas, when he finished fourth behind Shattered Love.

It’s impossible to know what a fair rating would be for that run – but a mark of 131 doesn’t look too bad, particularly bearing in mind the horse has massive scope for improvement.

Ofcourse improvement is not guaranteed – and he has yet to prove himself over the trip. However, his breeding suggests that the step up in trip should suit.

He’s certainly not one that I can justify in terms of pounds and lengths – but he is one who I want to have on side…

In truth, I did consider splitting stakes on the race – and also siding with a more solid option.

The trouble is, there were at least 3 ‘possibles’ that I could have gone with, in the shape of Hainan, Back to the Thatch and Baywing.
All 3 are quoted at single figure prices – and simply, with plenty of other dangers in the race, I didn’t feel there was sufficient value in their prices to warrant a risk.

If asked to nominate the most likely winner of the race, I would go for Hainan: but if asked to nominate the best bet in the race, Thebarrowman at 20/1 wins hands down !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Kemp 1:15 Our Kaempfer 0.5pt win 20/1

Newc 2:45 Thebarrowman 1pt win 20/1

Chep 3:05 Zeroshadesofgrey 1pt win 10/1

Mentions

Kemp 2:25 Bid Adieu (C )

Kemp 3:00 Shual Bay (O )

Kemp 3:35 Theatre Territory (O )

Kemp 4:10 Kayf Blanco (P )

Chep 3:40 Coeur Blimey (P )

Chep 4:15 Eastlake (C )