Daily write-up - Nov 18th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

As is invariably the case when they race at Cheltenham, the days other meeting take a back seat (in fact, they take the seat just behind the back seat!).

That’s all fine when Cheltenham delivers an attractive betting card – but when it doesn’t, it creates a bit of a dilemma…

There are 7 races on the Cheltenham card today: but the first 2 are effectively matches: 2 of the others are handicaps which are so competitive, almost all of the runners can be given a chance; 1 has a favourite who looks rock solid (and is priced up accordingly) – and 1 is a bumper, with very little form to go on…

That leaves 1 race which you can legitimately have a go at – so slim pickings, to say the least !

I think it’s important to remember however, that it’s a long old season.

It’s got off to a great start – and there are another 20 or so Saturdays stretched out in front of us.

It may be Cheltenham, but it never makes sense to force things…

I guess this is my convoluted way of apologising for the limited number of tips today – though in truth, an apology would be more appropriate, if I were to tip when I didn’t really fancy anything. 

And that’s certainly the case today: I’ve had a crack at the one race on the card which I think warrants betting in –  made a selection for the big race – and suggested a very speculative one at a huge price - but I can’t bring myself to tip anything else…

However, the beauty of this service (!), is that you still get to read my view on things – even when I’m not tipping in the races…

And here are my thoughts on all 7 of the races on the Cheltenham card – plus one at Punchestown…

Cheltenham

12:40 The card opens with a 4 year old hurdle race…

These aren’t generally my bag – however having tipped one of the runners yesterday, for the Triumph hurdle, I will have a little more interest in this contest, than would usually be the case !

I’ve obviously taken a bit of a risk tipping Apples Shakira for the Triumph – but if she does win today, then we are likely to be sitting on a very attractive ante-post bet.

Clearly she will have her work cut out winning today- as she takes on the current Triumph hurdle favourite, Gumball.

I’ll be a little surprised if Gumball proves good enough to win the Triumph – but that doesn’t mean that he won’t win today.

He’s already got a couple of wins under his belt this season – and clearly sets a high standard.

Whether Apples Shakira will be able to surpass that standard today, remains to be seen – but if she does – or indeed if she runs creditably in defeat – her odds for the Triumph will almost certainly shorten (possibly significantly)…

Fingers crossed she puts up a good performance and we can start thinking of what might be, come March…

1:15 As 3 horse races go, this is an absolute cracker !

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see both Ballyoptic and West Approach back in March and going very close in either the RSA chase or the 4 miler, at the Festival.

I think that both horses are potentially top class – which is a bit of a shame for Black Corton !

He’s already won 5 times over fences himself, this season – and demonstrated a fair level of form – so the fact I feel he can be relatively easily dismissed just shows the standard of the other 2 runners…

Choosing between the main protagonists isn’t easy – and race tactics/jumping are very likely to decide the outcome.

I would expect Ballyoptic to try and make all, under Dickie.

He will doubtless wind things up and try and stretch West Approach, forcing him into mistakes.

If West Approach is still in touch entering the straight, I suspect he will have too much speed for Ballyoptic.

However, there is a chance that Ballyoptic will have broken him by that point…

It’s not a race I would want to call. I just hope that both horses jump round cleanly – and the best one wins (with Black Croton, an honourable third !)

1:50 This is the one race on the card, which looks suitable to bet in…

It’s not hard to find holes in the cases of all of the fancied horses – in fact, the tricky bit, was finding one that I could make a solid case for !

I’ll get the negatives out of the way first:

Benbens is a 12 year old, who will be racing from 5lb out of the handicap – and who disappointed on his recent seasonal debut at Aintree.

Now you know why he’s a 16/1 shot !

On the flip side, his third in last seasons Scottish National – and fourth in the B365 Gold cup, showed that he’s not lost any of his ability.
More than that, whilst superficially he disappointed at Aintree last month, he made a shocking blunder at the third fence, and in the circumstances, did very well to get round and finish as close as he did…

His trainer, Nigel Twiston Davies, invariably has his horses primed for this meeting – whilst the 3lb claim of his jockey, Jamie Bargary, is a gift…

The horse stays all day – and should have no issue with the ground or the course.

In a race where there are question marks over all of the principals, his credentials stand up to scrutiny…

Favourite, Three Faces West, has a poor record fresh – and starts the season from a high enough mark. I couldn’t support him, today…

Gold Cup runner up, Minella Rocco, is arguably well handicapped on a mark of 166 – but I can’t see why connections would want him to win this race (if he gets beaten, his mark will be lowered, giving him a better chance in bigger races, later in the season).

Doing Fine looks the most solid option – and I did consider putting him up EW.

However, he’s a 5/1 shot – and I’m not convinced that he’s handicapped to win…

Premier Bond and Vicente are both making their seasonal debut – and I doubt that the latter, in particular, will be tuned up for today…

Perfect Candidate looks high in the handicap; Shotgun Paddy hasn’t won for 4 years; and this appears to be a fitness exercise for Sizing Codelco…

As a consequence, Benbens looks quite a good bet – even if he is 12 and 5lb wrong in the weights !!

2:25 The Betvictor Gold cup looks a very open race – and I could make a case for just about all of the top 7 in the betting (the exception being Roman de Senam, as I don’t really fancy him).

More than that, at bigger odds, I think Aqua Dude and Viconte de Noyer can both be given a squeak (the latter was an eye catcher last time – I’m just not sure about the drop in trip to 2m4f today) - whilst I wouldn’t completely dismiss the chance of 50/1 outsider, Lake Takapuna.

So, a ‘short’ list of 9 – with most of them looking priced up about right – it’s no wonder I struggled to find a tip !

Ultimately, I decided the best tactic was simply to try and find the most likely winner of the race – and I decided on Le Prezien…

Of all the runners, he strikes me as the most talented in the field.
His novice form from last season, really is top class and based on runs against Top Notch and Charbel, he arguably still has a few pounds in hand of his current mark.

He also looked an improved performer on his seasonal debut, when he travelled very sweetly behind Foxtail Hill, before not quite managing to peg that one back…

He will need to have improved for that run – but I suspect that will be the case (conversely, I’m not sure Foxtail Hill will have improved).

I can’t see this being an easy race to win – but Le Prezien has the tactical speed to maintain a position – and hopefully Barry Geraghty will be able to preserve enough to get him up the hill.

If that happens – and he’s as good as I suspect – then I think he will take a bit of beating…

I’m loathed to pick out one particular danger - because if he doesn’t deliver then I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the other market leaders win.

Aqua Dude, Viconte de Noyer and Lake Takapuna are all maybe worth small speculative plays  - but with 6 strong market leaders to beat, I couldn’t be confident about the chances of any of them…

3:00 I’m a bit disappointed that I can’t find anything to tip in this race (as I’m sure you all are, as well !).

I’ve tipped the past 2 winners: Rons Dream at 25/1 and Anteros at 33/1 – but there will be no hat trick of TVB successes this afternoon…

That’s mainly because I think that Thomas Campbell is the most likely race winner – and he’s a short priced favourite.

He was comfortable winner over today’s course, on his seasonal debut.
He was backed as if defeat was out the question that day – and duly obliged.

A 10lb hike in the weights for that win, seems harsh – however James Bowen takes over in the saddle this afternoon and his 7lb claim will offset the majority of the rise.

I think he’ll be hard to beat – and more than that if he is beaten, it is most likely to be by one of the other fancied horses…

I would nominate KK Lexion as the most likely danger – though there is question mark over his stamina (so he’s not suitable as an EW play).

I’ll be a little surprised if one of the pair doesn’t win – with Rockys Treasure likely to improve for the outing – and Dell ‘Arca not handicapped to get within 10 lengths of Thomas Campbell…

Our old friend, Anteros, really needed some rain to make it more of a stamina test.

He may be able to run on into a place – but I would struggle to see him doing much better than that (unless the race fell apart).

The only other one worth a mention, is bottom weight, Nuits Premier Cru.

He’s over from France – and impossible to assess. However, he’s a half brother to both Grand Crus and Gevrey Chambertain – and if either of them were running in this race off a mark 127, you would struggle to find a bookmaker prepared to offer odds !

He’s probably one to keep an eye on, in the late betting…

3:30 If the Betvictor Gold cup looks hard to fathom – then this race looks impossible…

With a couple of eye catchers running, I could easily have had a speculative stab - or two – at the race, but I really feel it really is one best watched…

The eye catchers are The Mighty Don and Quarenta – and both would have some kind of a chance – but then again, so do at least another dozen of the runners !

The novice handicap hurdles run at this meeting are often impossible to figure out (without knowing the late betting moves) – and this is certainly no exception.

I won’t bother assessing the chances of the top 10 in the market: suffice to say that victory for any of them would come as no great surprise (and whichever one does win, will likely put in a career best performance, by some margin).

Definitely a race to be watched with an eye to the future…

4:00 Because of the lack of betting opportunities earlier on the card, I spent a fair bit of time studying this race.

I do like to try and work out bumpers – even though there is so little form to go on, it invariably has to come down to educated guess work…

The 2 runners that interested me most were the ones over from Ireland – namely Holding Pattern and Moonlight Escape.

Interestingly, the former has been well backed this morning – whilst the latter is now a non runner…

However, I watched videos of all their recent runs – and in truth, didn’t see enough to compel me to side with either.

Holding Pattern seems to have the stronger form – but is a very keen runner.

If she is to have any chance this afternoon, Barry Geraghty will need to keep a tight hold of her (which I’m sure he is more than capable of doing).

Of the English challengers, then Grageelagh Girl cantered all over Posh Trish at Aintree – before struggling to get past her.

I can understand why the former has been made favourite – but she may struggle with the Cheltenham hill.

Whilst Outofthisworld, was impressive at Market Rasen – though she faces much stiffer competition today.

At a massive price, I’m quite interested in Lady Marwah.

She made her debut in the Aintree bumper, contested by Grageelagh Girl and Posh Trish.

She was running on nicely at the end of the race – and there could be a fair bit of improvement in her.

I would be even more interested in her, if Tom Scudamore were to take the ride (in the absence of Moonlight Escape).

I don’t want to carried away with her – but I do think she is worth a tiny bet at a huge price (100/1).

Punchestown

There is precious little racing of interest taking place away from Cheltenham – the exception being a very decent handicap chase, run early on the Punchestown card…

1:10 This is a fascinating – if very trappy – race..

There are 3 runners in it which particularly interest me – though all look quite risky as betting propositions…

The first is Sumos Novios.

He’s a real talent – but incredibly fragile.

He won on his seasonal debt last season – and, even under top weight, it wouldn’t surprise me if he were to repeat the dose this afternoon.

He can be backed at 9/1 – and that’s probably a fair price…

Velocity Boy is the next one of interest.

And I really could be interested in him – if I knew that was ready to do himself justice.

He’s at his best when dominating – so you’ll likely know early whether today is the day – or if he’s being readied for another target.

The final one of interest, is Laid Back Luke,

He’s another one who likes to lead (so that won’t help him – or Velocity Boy).

He disappointed last time – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run much better this afternoon…

I would struggle to recommend backing any of the 3 early – but if they do come in for market support, they are all capable of going very close.

That said, the early market move for Close Shave is quite ominous.

He has lots of untapped potential – and if it’s been decided that today is the day for him, he’s likely to come home in front…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 1:50 Benbens 1pt win, 0.5pt place 16/1

Chel 2:25 Le Prezien 1pt win 9/1

Chel 4:00 Lady Marwah 0.25pt EW 100/1

Mentions

Chel 12:40 Apples Shakira (O )

Chel 3:00 Thomas Campbell (P )

Chel 3:30 The Mighty Don & Quarenta (O )

Punch 1:10 Sumos Novios (O )