Daily write-up - Nov 17th

Day 1 of the three day Cheltenham November meeting…

Formerly known as ‘The Open’, the meeting has changed its name this year, to avoid confusion with the Golf Tournament of the same name, which takes place in July.

I have to say, that I for one, am quite relieved – because for years, I got the 2 events mixed up.

No chance of that now

After a light overnight frost, the meeting will start on ground described as ‘good to soft’ – and after minimal recent rain, I suspect that’s exactly what it will be (I’m sure it will have been watered sufficiently to prevent too much ‘good’).

The opening day provides a nice mixture of events – with a bit of something for everyone.

I’ve ended up with 4 small tips on the day – spread across 3 races.

Here’s the rationale for them – and my thoughts on the other races on the card (plus one race at Newcastle !)…

Cheltenham

12:40 The card opens with arguably the most interesting race of the day (well, I’d argue a case for it !).

An amateur rider handicap chase may not be for everyone – but it strikes me as a fascinating puzzle – and one that should be solvable…

I think the field can immediately be halved, with the 8 to focus on: What Happens Now, Dueling Banjos, Indian Castle, What a Moment, Sugar Baron, Pickamix, Solstice Son and As De Pique.

What happens Now is ridden by the incomparable Derek O Connor.

O Connor gave the horse a sublime ride when it won a similar race over course and distance at the October meeting.
The trouble is, the horse is now rated 8b higher - and he won’t be able to give it a better ride !

He may even struggle to confirm the form with the race runner up, Indian Castle – particularly as that one is well handicapped on old form and may well have improved for the run…

I think that Duelling Banjos is the most likely winner.

He represents the red hot stable of Kim Bailey – and has top amateur, Jamie Codd, in the saddle.

He ran really well on his reappearance at Exeter, when finishing second – and has only been raised 1lb for that effort.

He has ticks in just about every box – and whilst he’s been installed favourite, 11/2 is fair price – and he’s worth backing at those odds.

What a Moment won last years race – and whilst he has disappointed in his runs since then, if he bounces back to form, he would definitely have a chance from a 5lb higher mark.

Sugar Baron is relatively unexposed – but already has some good form in the book.

If he’s improved over the winter, he will go very close - even with top weight.

Pickamix is the youngest runner in the field – and the least experienced over fences.

It might all be a bit too much for him – but if he manages to cope

s with the hurly, burly, he will be a danger to all…

Of the outsiders, the Solstice Star is interesting.

He’s a front runner, which always helps in a race like this. And whilst he is running from a career high mark, he is still young enough to be improving.

The final one of interest is As De Pique.

He’s not young (!) – but he still seems capable of operating at a high level.

His sixth in last seasons Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown, is top class handicap form – and he races off a mark 1lb lower today.

He was running very nicely until he fell on his seasonal debut at Punchestown last month, and the fact that Gavin Cromwell has bough him over for this race, suggests he has fully recovered from that spill.

He’s got a very decent jockey in the saddle, in the shape of Lisa O’Neil – and simply, 25/1 is too big a price.

1:15 This looks a very difficult race to fathom – and all the obvious contenders are at the head of the market.

I think Counter Shy is the right favourite – and if he is able to fulfil his undoubted potential, he will be hard to beat.

Second favourite Oxwich Bay, also has strong claims. He’s a little more exposed – but still has plenty of room for improvement…

I wouldn’t be surprised to see big runs from War on the Rocks and Or De Vassy – and both are probably worth saving stakes on.

However, the one I’ve opted to side with, is Coeur Blimey…

He beat Ballyandy in an Ascot bumper, 2 years ago – and that one subsequently went on and won the Cheltenham bumper.

Coeur Blimey only finished 11^th in that event – though he was only beaten 6 lengths.

That is top class form – and whilst it’s impossible to equate it to hurdles form, it is non-the-less interesting, that Ballyandy is now rated 147 over hurdles – whilst Coeur Blimey races today off a mark of just 121…

In truth, Coeur Blimeys opening hurdles mark looks quite lenient compared with his form over obstacles, from last season.

He only ran 3 rimes last season – but on his final run, he was beaten 6 lengths by the now 142 rated Air Horse One.

That run suggests that Coeur Blimey could be at least a 130 animal – and if that’s the case, he has to go close this afternoon…

We are taking a bit of a chance on his fitness – though I somehow doubt that will be an issue.

The question is more likely to be whether he faces any rivals even better handicapped than him…

If he has got 10lb+ in hand of his rating, then that will be unlikely – though in a race such as this, it wouldn’t be impossible !

1:50 Un Beau Roman won this race 12 months ago – and I’m hopeful he can double up, this afternoon…

Depending on how you look at it, he’s either got a very good chance – or not much chance at all !

From a pure handicapping perspective, he runs from a mark 2lb lower this afternoon – and conditions should suit him admirably.

Looked at in those terms, he has a very good chance.

However, he’s been woefully out of form since his run over course and distance last December, so unless he can bounce back today, he’s got no chance !

That said, I actually thought he ran better last time, than the form book suggests…

Ultimately, he was hammered out of sight behind Foxtail Hill – but he moved with menace on the run to the second last, before not getting home.

My hope is that he was being prepped that day, for a repeat today – and if that is the case then connections did a really good job, as the handicapper also dropped him 6lb !

In truth, this is not a strong race for the prize on offer…

Favourite Exitas is vulnerable, off a mark 10lb higher than his last win.

I prefer the chance of Kapstadt – but he’s a novice, with a questionable jumping technique, so there must be a concern about him jumping round cleanly.

Doitforthevillage is a stablemate of Un Beau Roman – and I would fear him – if the ground were softer…

Shanahans Turn and Mick Thonic both have a chance of sorts – but look priced about right: whilst I’m just not that keen on the other 3…

I really do think that Un Beau Roman could take a bit of beating – with Kapstadt the most likely danger, if his jumping holds up…

2:25 It would be quite easy to construct a case against Finian’s Oscar in this – but despite, that I’m disinclined to take him on…

On the book, he has little in hand of his 3 rivals. His jumping on his chasing debut at Chepstow, wasn’t particularly fluent – and he’s a 5 year old, conceding weight to older rivals…

He’ll have to be exceptional to win – but that’s exactly what he looked, over hurdles last year !

In fairness, it is always dangerous to get carried away with hype. However, there is some real substance to he hurdling form – and that’s ignoring his undoubtedly huge potential.

I hope he wins this afternoon – and I think he can…

It’s not that easy to split his rivals, based purely on form, which suggests that Coo Star Sivola is the best bet in the race, at 20/1.

That maybe the case – but I think he’s the least likely winner…

If I was going to take on Finians, it would be with Movewiththetimes.

He was a little disappointing on his chasing debut at the October meeting – but stepped up in trip, with that run under his belt, I would expect him to do much better.

4/1 is arguably a fair price for him – but I’d rather just watch the race and hope we see something special…

3:00 With JP McManus owning the top 3 in the betting, it’s not easy to find a way to tackle the cross country chase…

I can’t see how you can support one of them, without more knowledge than we have  – but taking on all 3, is a risky business…

I did briefly toy with tipping either Urgent de Gregaine or Abusson – but I don’t think there is sufficient in the odds of either, to warrant the risk.

Urgent de Gregaine won the corresponding race 12 last season – but is 9lb higher today.

He also ran really well last time, when finishing second in the Pardubice.

I would expect him to run well again today – but there is minimal margin in a price of 5/1.

Aubusson is priced up a bit bigger, at 8/1 – but is also a bit riskier !
Based on form over conventional obstacles, he is attractively weighted – and he did run well in a cross country race last time.

He definitely has a chance – but his price seems to reflect that chance…

The only other one worthy of a mention is the second French challenger, Vicomte de Seuil.

If one is going to go under the radar in the race, it is likely to be him (and that’s despite Pricewise tipping him !).

It’s all guesswork, but I wouldn’t put anyone off a speculative play on him at 20/1 – quite possibly bigger on BF, come the off…

3:35 Vision Des Flos was an eye catcher the last time he ran – in the Grade 2 Persian War novice hurdle, at Chepstow.

It’s very unusual for a horse to make its hurdling debut in a graded event – and it shows the esteem in which Vision des Flos is held.

And for parts of the race, it looked as if he might be up to the task.

However, he ultimately could only finish third – having to give best to some more streetwise runners.

It was still a huge performance and one that marks him down as a horse likely to go places in the forthcoming months.

He is actually re-opposed this afternoon, by the horse who won the Chepstow race: Poetic Rhythm.

However, he has to carry a 6lb penalty for that win – and he won’t have the same experience advantage over Vison des Flos this afternoon.

I would expect Poetic Rhythm to run well – but I was also expect Vision des Flos to turn the tables…

Not that this is a 2 horse race…

On the Blind Side and Momella are difficult to assess – but both of them have the potential to be very good.
Calett Mad is a little easier to assess (as he is more exposed).

I’m sure he will give his all this afternoon  - but I’m less sure that a drop back in trip, is what he wants…

In summary, the lack of form makes this a tough race to assess.

However, Vision des Flos looks the one to beat – with One the Blind Side and Momella his 2 biggest dangers…

Newcastle

1:05 Just a few quick words on Triopas, who was an eye catcher, only last week, when he won at Chepstow…

That was in an amateur riders race – and the fact that connections have turned him out so quickly, means that he avoids a penalty today (so is effectively 7lb ‘well in’).

More than Dickie Johnson has been booked to ride – which considering there is racing taking place at Cheltenham, is quite an achievement !

I suspect the horse would prefer softer ground than he’s going to get – but I have a feeling he will overcome that issue…

As we saw earlier in the week, with Cheltenham de Vage, there is no such thing as a certainty.

However, the opposition looks very limited – and even with 14 rivals to beat, the 2/1 last night, seemed a very fair price…

Unfortunately, he’s been hammered in the betting this morning – and is now an even money shot !
Hopefully a few of you picked up on him from the eye catcher thread in the forum, and were able to secure a better price yesterday evening…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 12:40 Dueling Banjos 1pt win 11/2

Chel 12:40 As de Pique 0.5pt win 25/1

Chel 1:15 Coeur Blimey 0.5pt win 11/1

Chel 1:50 Un Beau Roman 1pt win 12/1

Mentions

Chel 2:25 Movewiththetimes (O )

Chel 3:00 Aubusson (S )

Chel 3:35 Vision des Flos (P )

Newc 1:05 Triopas (P )