Daily write-up - Nov 25th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Ascot, Haydock and Huntingdon in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland…

There’s not much of interest running at Huntingdon: and it’s the same story at Gowran – if you ignore the reappearing Min (who’s a 1/8 shot – so more one for watching, than backing !).

However, the cards at both Ascot and Haydock are excellent – and there’s an array of potential betting opportunities…

I do think that the state of the ground is going to be absolutely key, at both venues.

The ground at Ascot yesterday, was on the soft side of good – and with no rain forecast, it should be similar today.

Haydock however, will be like a quagmire !

It was already heavy, before the overnight rain – and there is more rain forecast during the afternoon.

Only those with an ability to act in such conditions – and stamina to burn - need apply…

Unlike last weekend, I had no issue identifying potential tips – the problem was being able to issue them at a point when we were able to get a price (without getting accounts closed !).

I did my best to strike the right balance – but it’s really not easy…

I’ve ended up with tips in 5 of the 11 races that I’ve looked at – and mentions in the other 6 (which you may choose to back, if circumstances move in their favour).

Here’s the rationale for the tips, along with my other thoughts on a very busy day…

Ascot

12:55 Deauville Crystal was put in at 20/1 on the opening show for this race last night – and at that price, she would have been a tip.

She gradually seems to be getting the hang of things over fences – and ran a fair race last time, staying on late at Sandown.

I think the step up in trip today, will suit him – and Sean Bowen back in the saddle is a positive.

At a big price, she would certainly have been worth an interest (maybe EW) – but that price has now halved and the value in her at 10/1, is minimal.

That’s because there are plenty of others in the race, who can also be given a chance…

Next on my list would be Will o the West: but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Clondaw Cian bounce back to form or Creep Desbois leave behind his under-whelming seasonal debut.

And I’ve not yet mentioned any of the market leaders…

Remind me Later was impressive at Worcester; whilst Lough Derg Farmer has plenty of scope for improvement, now sent over fences; and Toviere also looking interesting. I’m not so keen on the 3 outsiders – but that doesn’t move things forward significantly !

Ultimately, I decided it had to be a watching race – though significant drifts on either Deauville Crystal or Will o the West could see me getting involved with them…

1:30 This is another very tricky race to call, as it’s not easy to get a handle on a number of the runners.

Half of the field are making their seasonal debut; whilst most have still got significant scope for improvement (rendering the form book, of limited value)…

I was tempted to take a chance on Carnspindle.

She ran a really big race on her final outing last season – and whilst superficially disappointing on her seasonal debut at Wetherby, I don’t think she ran as badly as the formbook suggests.

With that run under her belt – and a 7lb claimer in the saddle – I think she will do much better today.

She certainly has a nice attitude which should stand her in good stead…

However, based on form from last season, she can’t beat Hitherjacques Lady.

That one beat her by 10 lengths at Lingfield – and is 4lb better off today.

Hitherjacques Lady is making her seasonal debut today, however – and could find the ground a bit quicker than ideal.
The market may advise on her chance close to the off…

As you would expect, cases of sorts can be made for most of the other runners, so again, I think it is a race probably best watched…

2:05 I had hoped to get us in a strong position in this race, by tipping earlier in the week.

It’s something I’m quite keen to do – though the bookmakers ensure there are relatively few opportunities (as only a few of them tend to price up races – and there’s a big variance in prices on offer).

Looking at the 5 day decs, I felt Smad Place was the most likely winner.

His connections had also stated that this was his target (and that wasn’t the case with his most dangerous looking rivals), so in the circumstances, I figured it was worth getting involved early…

However, as things transpired, all of this main rivals stood their ground – so whilst he still looks the most likely winner, the case for him isn’t as overwhelming as I was hoping it might be !

That said, on form and ratings, he - and Top Notch - stand out.

A few of the runners could be given a chance, in certain circumstances, but they all come with far more risks than the 2 market principals…

At his peak, Smad Place is a solid Grade 2 performer – bordering on Grade 1.

He should have no issue with todays conditions – and showed himself in top form, when winning on his seasonal debut, last time at Aintree.

As a 10 year old, connections won’t want to be wasting opportunities – and I’m absolutely sure he’ll run a huge race today.
The only question in my mind, is whether he’ll be good enough to beat a peak form Top Notch…

That’s a tough one to call, as he too is a solid Grade 2/borderline Grade 1 performer –and he’s 4 years younger than Smad Place, so could still be improving.

On the flip side, his jumping isn’t as assured, so he may struggle, if put under pressure. 

He will also have a new jockey in the saddle, as Daryl Jacob is at Haydock, so Nico de Boinville steps in for the ride…

Purely on ratings, Top Gamble should also go close – but he prefers softer ground than he will get – and is also likely to benefit from the outing. I’m happy enough opposing him.

I could see Royal Regata running very well – particularly if he’s able to boss things from the front.
That said, he really shouldn’t be good enough to beat Smad Place or Top Notch.

Similarly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Double Shuffle or Sizing Granite outrun their odds – but neither should be good enough to win…

This looks like a 2 horse race to me.

I still favour Smad Place, but I think it makes sense to save stakes (most of them, anyway !) on Top Notch…

2:40 TVB favourite, Lil Rockerfeller runs in this, and I expect him to go very well indeed !

I’ve already tipped him for this seasons Stayers hurdle – so if he’s going to go close in that race, then in receipt of weight from his 2 main rivals, he really should win today.
And I think he can.

Provided it’s a truly run race, then the trip and course will suit him perfectly.

Hopefully, the 2 outsiders will ensure there’s a good pace, which Lil Rockerfeller will track, before asserting in the home straight…

I’m reasonably confident that he can beat L’Ami Serge, as I suspect that one will need the run (I’m also reasonably confident that he will look like winning, at some point !).

It’s not so easy to be sure about him beating Defi du Seuil, as he is unbeaten so far, over hurdles.

However, he’s going to have to be some horse, to give weight to Lil Rockerfeller on his seasonal debut - particularly as he’s only a 4 year old (and should therefore be receiving weight for age).

Ultimately, I think we are looking at one horse who will be primed for today’s contest, against 2 who are likely to improve for the run.

That is sufficient reason for me to want Lil Rockerfeller on side, at what is a fair price.

3:15 When I first looked at this race, I was drawn to Cepage…

He was a very impressive winner, when bolting up on his debut for Venetia at Newbury, last December.

However, that was in a class 4 race – and subseqent events showed the form to be of little value.

Capage was raised nearly a stone for the win – and based on his subsequent runs last season, he’s going to struggle from his current mark…

Having dismissed him (!), I started to look elsewhere for the winner…

My feeling is that the top 3 are badly handicapped – and whilst San Benedito and Quite by Chance aren’t so easily dismissed – there are both at short enough prices, considering they don’t appear to have much in hand of their marks.

The same is true of Upsilon Bleu – but at least he’s at a price (8/1) where he could be backed EW. I would expect him to run well…

However, I think the bet in the race, is Dandridge…

He’s a horse with a marked preference for decent ground. He tends not to get that in Ireland so has to come over to the UK – and when he does that, he does very well…

He won at Doncaster, 2 seasons ago – and has finished placed in the last 2 runnings of the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival.

That is top class 2 mile handicap form – and he gets to run today from a mark 5lb lower than when 4^th in the Cheltenham race, in March.

I’m not sure how to read the application of a first time tongue tie – I’m always a bit nervous about those.

That aside however, I think he has a very good chance, and with a racing weight of just 10st 1lb, he’s going to feel like he’s running free !

Haydock

12:40 Russe Blanc was an eye catcher last time out, when he made his seasonal debut at Carlisle – and under ideal conditions today, he was always going to be a tip.

In fact, I thought Christmas had come early when he opened up an 8/1 shot last night – and whilst I didn’t expect that to last, I would have been more than happy with the general opening quote of 6/1.
However, that didn’t last either, so we had to settle for 4/1 early this morning (assuming we were quick/lucky !).

The thing about the race however, is that it will be such a stamina test, only a few of the horses have any chance of surviving it…

It’s very difficult to see beyond the top 3 in the betting – and Emperors Choice will need to bounce back to form, if he is to feature.

I wouldn’t put that beyond him – and if he does, Russe Blanc will have his work cut out to beat him, but hopefully he’ll be up to the job. He’s thereofr eworth saving stakes on.

Courtown Oscar is the other one for whom conditions should be ideal – but he makes the market and I’m happy enough taking him on at 5/2.

Russe Blanc is back down to the mark from which he won the Classics Chase, 2 seasons ago – so he’s well handicapped.

His last time out run, should have put him spot on for today – so he’s in form.

Kerry Lee has a superb record at Haydock – and he’s her only runner at the track today.

Whilst he has Dickie in the saddle – and there’s no one better, if a horse needs pushing and cajoling – which may well be the case !

The price is now shorter than I would like – but with ticks in all of those boxes, I can’t say I’m too surprised…

1:15 Cyrus Darius is the second eye catcher running on the card – and I was also very tempted to tip him…

He caught the eye last time when wining at Ayr – and I think there’s a definite chance that he’ll follow up today.

The trouble is, this is a very competitive race - and it’s going to turn into a real slog.

I honestly don’t know whether that will suit Cyrus Darius – so I’m reluctantly passing him over…

It will suit Vintage Clouds – and the early money suggests that Danny Cook will be aiming to make every post a winning one on him.

I also think it will suit Big River – and receiving weight from all of his rivals, he’s another big danger…

I’m not so keen on the chances of Clan des Obeaux and Born Survivor – but mainly because I don’t think they will be well suited by a war of attrition.

Seldom Inn is the correct outsider – though even he has a squeak.

In short, I came to the conclusion that the race was a bit too trappy to play in.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Cyrus Darius was good enough to win – but I’m not prepared to bet on it…

1:50 I find it very interesting that Richard Johnson is riding at Haydock this afternoon.

He could have had at least a couple of decent rides at Ascot – so the suggestion is that one of his mounts is fancied at Haydock.

I would like to think it is Russe Blanc (!) – but it’s more likely to be a Philip Hobbs trained horse - so either Verni in this: or Robinhannon in the next…

My guess is that it’s Verni – and he is certainly sufficiently unexposed to have improved further over the summer.

He’s actually held by Clyne on form at todays track, 12 months ago.

I would also expect Clyne to run well today – but he’s not got much scope off his current mark.

Of the others, then Limited Reserve is very interesting - provided he handless the ground; whilst Diamond Fort and Chti Balco are two more who have got definite chances…

At the prices, then it’s the last name who makes most appeal – particularly as he’s already a course winner in heavy ground.

That said, with it impossible to eliminate many from consideration, it has to be a watching race…

2:25 As you would expect, with a first prize of nearly £60K, this is a fiercely competitive handicap…

There are some very unexposed, potentially big improvers, at the head of the market – and whilst one of them could take the race apart, I would be slightly concerned that that they won’t want to leave their seasons (and possibly longer) behind, by enduring particularly tough races - and this race could become very tough indeed !

Instead, I’m siding with a couple of the more exposed horses – both of whom have already shown an ability to operate in desperate ground…

The first is Le Rocher.

He won a Grade 1 hurdle on his UK debut, back in 2013.

He was just 4 at the time – and the race was run on bottomless going.
He followed that up, by winning a grade 2 event at Cheltenham – again on very heavy ground.

He would have been contesting favouritism for the Triumph hurdle that year, if injury hadn’t intervened – and he wasn’t seen on the track again, until last autumn.

A low key return at Ascot, was followed by a much better run behind Clyne in the Haydock fog.

It was impossible to see what actually happened in that race, but the form is strong – and Le Rocher followed it up by winning at Uttoxeter (again in heavy ground)

He’s only run twice since then: firstly when chasing home the high class Camping Ground, at Fontwell last season – and then his seasonal debut at Chepstow, last month.

He probably needed that run – and the ground would have been too quick for him – so the fact his mark was dropped 2lb on the back of it, was a real bonus.

He’ll get his ground today – and Lizzy Kelly is back in the saddle, claiming 3lb.

For a Grade 1 winner, he’s extremely attractively handicapped on a mark of just 141 – and if he stays today trip (he’s bred to do so), then he has to run a very big race…

Templeross is the other one I want on side.

He was a very progressive hurdler last season – and was expected to improve for the switch to fences this season.
However, it’s not happened – with him jumping ponderously on both starts.
I’m not surprised to see him switched back to the smaller obstacles today – and if he can pick up from where he left off last season, he will run a big race.

He should have no issue with the ground or trip – and I always like to have Jamie Bargary in the saddle (it’s like a free 3lb !).

He’s going to be carrying less that 10 stone – and that could prove crucial if it turns into a war of attrition…

Of the others, then I was very tempted by Champers on Ice – though the price on him has now gone (and there’s a danger that first time blinkers could cause him to run too freely).

Of the unexposed horses, then The Worlds End is the most attractive – though I could also see Dickies mount, Robbinhannon, running well at a big price.

The final one worthy of a mention, is The Dutchman on his debut for Colin Tizzard.

If he’s improved for the stable switch, he could be dangerous…

3:00 I got quite close to tipping in this race, last weekend.

At the time, Sizing John was still expected to run – but the likely heavy ground, was a cloud hanging over him…

On looking through the runners, I was very tempted by our old friend Tea for Two.
He was 14/1 shot with some bookmakers – and with 3 places.

However, he was also a 10/1 shot with others – and just 2 places were on offer !

I’m trying to make sure that everyone is able to get the odds that I quote on the tips – regardless of which bookmakers accounts you have (or have not !).

Consequently, I didn’t feel I could tip him…

In truth, that wasn’t the only reason I resisted.
Whilst I felt he was over-priced, I wasn’t convince that on heavy ground, he would be able to beat Bristol de Mai – and if the ground wasn’t heavy, then he was going to struggle to beat a few of them !

Roll on the best part of a week – and we are where we are…

The ground is heavy – Sizing John is absent - Bristol de Mai looks the most likely winner.

His current price is tight and I could actually see him drifting a little close to the off, as the value seekers look to oppose him.
However, I do think that he will take a bit of beating under his prime conditions.

There is a chance that Tea for Two could still get placed:

There has to be a significant question mark over Cue Card – and whilst Outlander did us a massive favour last time, the race did fall apart a little that day – and he’s not the most consistent of animals.

I can’t see Traffic Fluid getting home – though I could see Shantou Flyer outrunning his dismissive odds…

It should be an intriguing race – but it’s one which I think Bristol de Mai will win.

3:35 The final race of an epic days racing – and I can only imagine what state the Haydock ground will be in, by the time it is run…

For that reason alone, I was tempted to go with Cloudy Too in this, as he is the ultimate mud lover.
However, the 3m2f trip will stretch him (particularly if Danny Cook rides him aggressively).

Baywing will cope with the ground – and the trip – I’m just not sure that he’s particularly well handicapped…

Henri Parry Morgan is very well handicapped - but may not relish conditions.

I’ve got similar ground concerns, for both Lessons in Milan and Sir Ivan…

If I were to play in the race, it would probably be with Catamaran de Seuil.

The problem with him is that he’s hard to get a handle on. However, he was a gutsy winner last time out – and if he handles conditions, I would expect him to run a big race.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Hayd 12:40 Russe Blanc 2pt win 4/1

Hayd 12:40 Emperors Choice 0.5pt win 5/1

Hayd 2:25 Le Rocher 1pt win 10/1

Hayd 2:25 Templeross 0.5pt win 16/1

Asc 2:05 Smad Place 2pr win 3/1

Asc 2:05 Top Notch 0.5pt win 11/4

Asc 2:40 Lil Rockerfeller 2pt win 3/1

Asc 3:15 Dandridge 1pt win 9/1

Mentions

Hayd 1:15 Cyrus Darius (O )

Hayd 1:50 Chti Balko (O )

Hayd 3:00 Bristol de Mai (P )

Hayd 3:35 Catamaran du Seuil (C )

Asc 12:55 Deauville Crystal (O )

Asc 1:30 Carnspindle (O )