Daily write-up - Nov 5th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Carlisle and Huntingdon in the UK – plus Cork in Ireland.

I guess there will be a few days like today: not really big race days – but just about sufficient quality to warrant a proper preview…

In my mind, I’m committed to providing the full service every Saturday; most Sundays – and a few mid-week days.

I think the important thing for me (and you !), is that I’m not wasting time and energy during the week, trying to find tips in races, where if you back them, you’re likely  to get your accounts closed !

There can be no sense in that…

There are some decent races at Carlisle today – plus the Cork National.

A couple of the supporting races at Cork aren’t bad either – but they are novice events and I’m not getting in to those at this point in the season.

The Huntingdon card doesn’t have a lot to recommend it - other than the chasing debut of Willoughby Court,– that will be interesting to watch…

Flushed by yesterdays successes, I’ve tipped in a couple of races today.

I didn’t particularly plan to – but the races, horses – and prices, where there, so it seemed rude not to !

Here is the rationale for the tips – plus a few other thoughts on the days action…

Carlisle

1:30 This really is a cracking little novice chase – and one which is worth watching closely, as it looks sure to produce winners, for later in the season…

Just Minded is definitely the most interesting runner – but he is making his chasing/seasonal debut – and has been installed favourite.

He may win today – but I’m sure he’ll do better in the forthcoming months…

Secrete Stream and Another Bill are 2 other similar types – both have plenty of potential – but they are more likely to be fulfilling that on another day…

For today, Solomn Grundy, Mister Whitaker and Solstice Star are potentially of more interest.

They each have a run under their belts this season – and should be ready to put in a performance.

That’s also the case with Cooking Fat – and I think he looks just about the best bet in the race…

He ran nicely on his chasing debut at Wetherby, last time – a race which should have set him up for today.

I’m not sure why, but he’s well handicapped over fences compared to his hurdles mark (they are normally set at the same level, when horses start in handicaps over fences) – plus he has a decent 3lb claiming jockey in the saddle.

The trip and ground will suit him fine – and as he’s only 6, he still has scope for improvement.

Granted a clear round (and the fences at Carlisle are very fair), I can’t see him not being there, or thereabouts…

With so many potentially decent rivals up against him, the sensible option is to back him each way.

However, if non of them show improvement, he sets a high enough standard to be able to win.

2:00 Just a quick mention for Bering Upson in this…

He has no worthy form to his name - but is making his handicap debut (so you may well see some improvement today !).

His trainer, James Ewart, has a very good record with horses like him, which is why he is worth noting.
Generally, if they are going to win, they are well backed.

I suggest you watch the market for clues…

2:30 I’m hoping the ground will be on the quick (ish) side at Carlisle…

The forecast yesterday, was good to soft – and I can see no sign of any rain having fallen in the interim.

I expected a going update to be posted somewhere this morning – but it hasn’t materialised…

Assuming the ground is of the soft side of good, then I think A Good Skin is the one to beat in this…

He’s a horse who has spent most of the last couple of years, running (and running well), in races far better than this.

For example, he was sent off at 14/1 for the handicap chase on the opening day of last seasons Cheltenham festival.

He finished mid division that day – and disappointed on his final 3 runs, of the campaign.

Some messing around with head gear, suggests something wasn’t quite right – but that is dispensed with today.

As a result of his poor runs, his handicap mark has plummeted.

He is now running from a mark over a stone lower than he was competing from, less than 12 months ago.

He’s the only runner that Tom George sends to Carlisle today – and if he has got he horse back to form, then I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t win…

With the likes of Waldorf Salad, Chef Doevre and Russe Blanc, all wanting very soft ground, I can see 2 main dangers…

The first is favourite Templeross – who still has plenty of potential improvement in him; the second is Bindon Mill…

I pointed him out on the mid week blog, when he made his seasonal debut at Exeter, at the back end of last month.
He ran well that day – and would have gone close to winning, if he’d not made a few bad blunders…

As I’ve said, Carlisle is a relatively easy track to jump round (touch wood !), which is presumably part of the reasons why connections have chosen to send him on the 600+ mile round trip from Devon !!

He’s young enough to still be improving – and Nick Sholfields only ride on the card.

I think it is worth saving stakes on Templeross – but A Good Skin and Bindon Mill are the main bets in the race…

3:35 I’m looking forward to seeing Waiting Patiently in this.

He showed some high class form last season - and I can see him taking things a step further this campaign.

He faces some decent rivals today – but I still expect him to win…

I Just Know, was an eye catcher last time, also at Carlisle.
He is likely to put the pace to the race today – and I expect him to run well.

His race fitness could see him fend off both Belami des Pictons and Baywing – but I’ll be surprised if he can withstand Waiting Patiently…

Maybe a potential forecast..?

Cork

3:15 The demolition job that Total Recall carried out in the Munster National, means that Racing Pulse has been put in very short for the Cork equivalent…

In fairness, there are a lot of parallels between the 2 horses – most notably that they are debuting for Willie Mullins, having, arguably under-performed, for their previous trainers…

Certainly I wouldn’t be surprised to see Racing Pulse rip this field apart in the same way that Total Recall took apart the field at Limerick.

The trouble is, you’ll struggle to get 3/1 about him doing it: he is more exposed than Total Recall was: and he faces at least a couple of potentially progressive rivals.

In truth, it comes down to the price: At 4/1, I’d be interested – but I just don’t think he’s worth a risk at less than 3/1…

In terms of his rivals, then Kings Song and A Sizing Network are the 2 of main interest.

They hail from the next 2 biggest stables in the country (that of Gordon Elliott and Jessica Harrington) – and are both progressive sorts.

They’ve probably bitten off more they can chew here, with Racing Pulse – but you never know…

Une Lavandier is the most interesting of the outsiders – though I will be surprised if the winner comes from outside the big 3…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Carl 1:30 Cooking Fat 0.5pt EW 9/1

Carl 2:30 A Good Skin 1pt win 9/1

Carl 2:30 Bindon Mill 1pt win 12/1

Carl 2:30 Templeross 0.5pt win 4/1

Mentions

Carl 2:00 Bering Upson (S )

Carl 3:35 Waiting Patiently (P )

Cork 3:15 Racing Pulse (P )