Daily write-up - Nov 26th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Exeter and Uttoxeter in the UK – and Navan in Ireland.

The Troytown chase aside, today feels more like a week day, which I would handle via the blog.

In fairness, there are actually some quite interesting races – and certainly some quite interesting horses – but they are not the sort which I could easily tip.

I can offer my thoughts on them though – and if opportunities arise through the day, then you can look to pick some of them off (I do like this low key approach ).

As for the Troytown, then that’s a different matter.
It’s one of those Irish handicap chases which I absolutely love.

TVB already has quite a history in the race, thanks to the incomparable Cootamundra (!) – and Riverside City.

Hopefully Bonny Kate can add another (positive) chapter to the tale, this afternoon…

Navan

1:05 Just a quick mention for Samcro who runs in this race.

He’s the latest sensation to roll off the Gigginstown/Elliot production line.

Unbeaten in his 4 runs under rules, he’s already 4/1 favourite for the Ballymore Properties novice hurdle –and that price is likely to contract even further if he wins this afternoon (which he probably will do)...

2:35 I had a bit of a dilemma with this race.

Ask me for the most likely winner – and I would say Acapella Bourgeois – but so would almost everyone else.

Formerly with Sandra Hughes, he transferred to the stable of Willie Mullins when she retired.

Total Recall took the same path – and he dotted in the Munster National on his first start for Mullins – having been backed off the boards…

Acapella Bourgeois was always considered the best horse in the stable, when trained by Hughes – so if Mullins has improved him, you’ve got to be looking at a Graded animal…

Even off a mark of 149, I think he will take some beating this afternoon.

He seems to have a marked preference for heavy ground – and he will get that.

The only issue is the price (and the possibility of Willie not wanting to play ball with the masses !).

He’s a 3/1 shot – which is actually hard to argue with – aside from the fact that you need a fair bit of luck to win a competitive 22 runner handicap.

I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him if they can get a price (just be wary of a massive drift !) – but I decided, on balance, that there was a better route into the race…

Rather than try to find the winner – I’ve tried to find a horse who should at least be placed – and I’ve come up with Bonny Kate.

She finished third in the corresponding race last season – and that was also on her seasonal debut.

That looked a good run at the time – but the subsequent performances of the horses who finished around her, showed it to be a massive effort…

The winner, Empire of Dirt, subsequently demonstrated himself a Grade 1 performer – and finished the season with a rating of 166 – 18lb higher than when winning the race.
Runner up, Abolitionist, subsequently won the Leinster National, before finishing third in the Irish National and he finished the season on a mark of 146 - a 15lb rise.

Whilst fourth placed Noble Endeavour won the Paddy Power chase on his next outing and finished the season 13lb higher…

Meanwhile, the rating of Bonny Kate went up by 3lb…

Based purely on her run in this race last year, Bonny Kate could have almost a stone in hand of her current mark – and even Acapella Bourgeois will struggle to beat her, if that is the case…

In fairness, she did run 4 more times from her current mark last season – and didn’t show herself to spectacularly well handicapped.

That said, third placing in the Thystes and the Grand National trial, is still form which will see her go close this afternoon.

The other big attraction with Bonny Kate, is her running style.
She’s a mare who likes to race prominently – and that’s a big advantage in these kind of races.

Despite her experience, she is only 7 – so in theory, could still be improving.

She also has a strong preference for heavy ground – so will get her conditions this afternoon.

In short, the case for her to run a big race, is absolutely solid – assuming she is tuned to do her job (we have to rely on Noel Meade for that !).

As a win bet, she’s a fair shout – as an EW bet, I won’t issue many better ones all season…

Aside from Accapella and Kate, there are a few others worthy of a mention…

General Principle seems to be Gordon Elliots No.1 – so is worthy of respect simply for that reason.

However, if I were to take a second stab at the race, it would be with Last Goodbye.

He has a lot to prove, but a step up in trip, may bring about significant improvement.

Don’t Tell no One, Hurricane Darwin and Whatareyoudoingtome, are 3 others, who could also run well – though non are rock solid.

Whilst at a big prices, As de Pique will run well (if his jumping holds) – and Icantsay could give you a real run for your money (in a back to lay in running way) – assuming he consents to start (which is not guaranteed !)

Exeter

1:25 Mister Drifter is the first of 2 eye catchers running this afternoon…

He caught the eye last time at Huntingdon, when staying on late having found everything happening a bit too quickly.

He actually steps down in trip today – which won’t help: however softer ground and a stiffer track, will…

I’m not sure whether he’s worth backing at 6/1, with conditions not perfect.

I could see him being outpaced again – before staying on and grabbing a place.

He could be worth backing EW – but I wouldn’t be going mad on him…

1:55 I do like the look of Goohar in this…

He’s got some good form from last season – including a win at Towcester and a fifth place in a hot handicap at Cheltenham.

His handicap mark looks workable – and he should be better for a run at Carlisle.

At 10/1, he definitely holds appeal…

2:55 Ubaltique is the one of most interest in this – down to a mark 1lb lower than his last winning rating.
He also ran a nice race last time, on his seasonal debut – and will have conditions to suit.

It’s interesting that Donald McCain has brought him down to contest this race rather than find a target in the north – and he definitely looks the one to beat.

That said, there are a few others of interest in the race – most notably Keep Moving – and Ubaltique has now been backed into 4/1…

That price is probably fair – even if there isn’t a lot of margin in it.

Uttoxeter

2:15 I quite fancy Zephyros Bleu to get the better of favourite, Krackatoa King in this – but it would appear I’m not alone in that, as he’s another who has been well backed (in to 3/1).

In truth, it’s difficult to know if he’s well handicapped – and most of his rivals can be given a chance of sorts.

I would make him the most likely winner – but would like a little more in the price…

2:45 Our old friend, Kris Spin contests this race – and he has a chance as well…

He did us a big favour on the first Saturday of the season – and it’s possible that he could follow up today off a mark just 4lb higher.

He’s certainly not handicapped out of things on old form – and I would expect him to run his race.

At 6/1 and with 8 runners, he looks at EW bet to nothing – but I’ll be a bit surprised if he’s good enough to win.

That’s because he faces a couple of potentially big improvers in the shape of Ice Cool Champs and Beast of Burden.

The former has been installed favourite – but it’s the latter who really interests me…

A couple of seasons back, I was convinced he was going to go to the very top over fences.

It didn’t happened however – but it’s fascinating that he makes his debut for Dan Skelton today (having previously been with Rebecca Curtis).
If Dan has found the key to the horse, he will absolutely hack up in this (I’m talking him crossing the line as the runner up jumps the last !).

Potentially, he’s ridiculously well handicapped, running off a mark of 127, when I think he could be a 150+ horse.

Needless to say, I’ve backed him – and whilst I can get carried away with these type of horses I really am looking forward to watching him this afternoon…

3:45 Catching On is the second eye catcher running this afternoon – and he is nearly very interesting…

He’s actually caught my eye on his last 2 runs – and it is just a matter of time before he wins.

That could be today – as he gets the soft ground he needs and has a claiming jockey in the saddle. However, the trip looks on the short side for him and he faces 3 dangerous looking rivals…

In truth, I’m not sure how to play him.

Like I say, I think he could win – but I suspect he won’t !

I’ll probably have a small bet on him – just in case…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Nav 2:35 Bonny Kate 1pt EW 20/1

Mentions

Exe 1:25 Mister Drifter (C )

Exe 1:55 Goohar

Exe 2:55 Ubaltique (P )

Uttx 2:15 Zephyros Bleu (P )

Uttx 2:45 Beast of Burden (S )

Uttx 3:45 Catching On (C )