Daily write-up - Nov 4th

The first Saturday of the main TVB season – and we are spoilt with a glut of top class racing !

There are NH meetings at Wetherby, Ascot, Ayr and Down Royal – with ‘Big’ (or Big-ish !) races at every venue !

The JNWine Chase at Down Royal, is the first Grade 1 of the new season: whilst the Wetherby card features the Grade 2 Charlie Hall chase – and there are 3 top notch handicaps at Ascot.

I did think that the Ayr card might give me some respite - but not a bit of it.

The racing may not be of quite the same quality as the other venues  – but it’s still a very good card.

Before I begin the previews, just a few words on the tips…

I’ve spent most of the week (and certainly most of the past 12 hours !) trying to figure out the best time to issue them…

The problem, is trying to find a point in time, when all of the bookmakers have priced up a race – and the odds are reasonably stable (ie. achievable).

I think I managed that this morning – though I’m not convinced that we got the best prices.

Maybe that’s something we have to accept…

Certainly, issuing yesterday evening seemed a ‘no-no’ – with prices crashing all over the place (as people picked off the ‘value’).

I do think that earlier in the week could be an option – for the weekends biggest races.

I know we will hit the odd NR – but, for example, Calipto was 10/1 on Thursday (a tippable price) – but you couldn’t beat 6/1 this morning (not a tippable price !).

Anyway, I’ve taken the path I’ve taken, today – and we can see how it works out.

I’ve kept stakes very low – partially because ‘value’ in most of the prices is limited: but also because the season is only just getting going (so fitness is an unknown for many of the horses).

One thing worth bearing in mind, is that generally, I will be tipping in competitive races – so there will always be other horses in the race that people want to back.

This means that you should resist the temptation to chase down prices on tips.

They may shorten initially – but when the other horses in the race are backed – the ones I’m interested in will drift.

Sometimes it takes a while – with the bookmakers tending to be much slower to push out prices than they are to shorten them.
However, it invariably does happen – even if it’s only on the exchanges.

I back very few of the horses I tip, before I tip them – but I still tend to get close to the recommended prices – simply by waiting for drifts.

I’ve found that half an hour before the off, tends to be a particularly good time (when the course bookmakers are trying to establish their odds).

Anyway, hopefully you’ll each be able to find a method that works for you – and enables you to get reasonable prices (whilst not compromising accounts)…

On to my thoughts on the various races, from the 4 courses…

Ascot

1:50 I’m most interested in Benetar in this – though there’s a fair bit of guesswork – and the price is quite tight.

Those of you with good memories will recall that I was a big fan of the horse last season (I put him up on the ante-post thread on the forum, for a novice hurdle a the Cheltenham festival).

He has his first run under rules, over fences today – and I suspect he could prove to be very good over the bigger obstacles (he won a PTP in Ireland, as a 4 year old).

He’s making his seasonal debut today – but he won first time out last season.
The question in my mind was simply, what price I needed in order to get involved with him

Looking at the race, it appears there could be a pace war, as most of the runners like to lead/race prominently and I think that could work in his favour (as he can be keen).

I decided that he was just about worth a risk at 5/1.

Hopefully some of the more patient amongst you will be able to beat that price, at some point, pre-race…

2:50 Calipto is one who I would have taken a chance on - if his price had been a bit bigger…

However, he was a 6/1 shot in a very competitive looking 11 runner chase – and unlikely to drift, as Pricewise put him up.

As with Benetar, he is also making his seasonal debut – which adds to the guesswork.

Furthermore, most of Venetias are running as if they will improve for the outing.

If he is straight, and his jumping cuts mustard, then he is handicapped to go very close…

Last years winner, Quite by Chance, is an obvious danger: as is favourite Marracudja.

I’m also quite interested in Chris Pea Green.

He’s not run for nearly 600 days – and that has to be a concern.

However, he is nicely handicapped on old form – and has run well at Ascot in the past.

Again, the dilemma concerned the price…

I couldn’t see any margin in Caliptos price – but I could see a little in Chris Pea Greens (even if he is fair bit riskier !).

3:00 There are some ‘sexy’ horses heading the market in this, in the shape of Elgin, Jenkins and Verdana Blue.

All are second season novices, with plenty of potential.

There is a chance that at least one of them will put in a personal best today, and that will be good enough to take the race – but I can also see flaws in all 3…

Rather than side with one of them, I’m going with a slightly more ‘gnarled’ performer, in the shape of Song Light.

In truth, whilst he may be gnarled, he has got by far the best form in the book: in the shape of placings in last seasons Greatwood hurdle – and Betfair hurdle.

In terms of handicap hurdle form, it doesn’t get much better than that – and Song Light runs off roughly the same mark this afternoon, as he did in both of those races.

More than that, he’s recently shown his well being, by dotting up in a race on the flat.

He really does have ticks in most boxes – apart from one…

On his most recent hurdles race at Haydock, in May, he refused to start !

That’s obviously a concern – and the application of first time blinkers, suggests he may be a bit of a ‘thinker’ !

However, regular pilot, Kevin Jones wasn’t in the saddle at Haydock – but he’s re-united with him today.

I hope (and think) that will make the difference.
Certainly if the horse does consent to run, I think he will run a very big race.

Expect to see him come there cruising a the second last (and which point, those of a nervous disposition may wish to recover their stakes !) – and then hopefully go through with his effort !

3:35 This is a ferociously difficult handicap – and victory for any one of around 10 horses, wouldn’t come as a major surprise.

That said, the recent rain – and plenty of front runners – mean that it is a race, where you can narrow down the field a little, based on factors other than just form and fitness…

Certainly Emerging Market won’t be helped by softer ground and competition for the lead: whilst Go Conquer is another who would prefer to get his own way, up front (but that won’t happen).

It’s hard to knock Bracquer Dor – the question with him is whether he is up to the class rise: whilst Dark Flame is another whose profile looks solid…

That said, my 2 against the field are Thomas Brown and Antony.

The former has an amazing record fresh and is handicapped to win.

My issue with him, is the big field and the trip…

I don’t have the same issues with Antony – who won this very race, 12 months ago.

That was off a 4lb lower mark – but 4lb more wouldn’t have stopped him that day…

I like the fact he’s had a run to blow away the cobwebs (that suggests this was always the target) – and as he’s only 7, there must be every chance that he’s still improving.

I can’t see any negatives with him – and whilst 10/1 isn’t a price to go mad over, its not realistic to expect much more…

Of the others, then I suspect that either the race pace, or the softer ground (or both !), will find out many of them.

At a big price, The Young Master holds some appeal – but this feels like a race where it’s best just to have one stab, because a chance of sorts, can be made for most of the runners…

Wetherby

2:05 I suspect that Le Bague Au Roi will take a bit of beating in this…

She hasn’t actually got that much in hand of a few of her rivals – but she is the highest rated and she also has plenty of scope for improvement.

Furthermore, she has Dickie in the saddle – and that’s rarely a hindrance !

Unfortunately, she’s now an even money shot – and whilst I wouldn’t be prepared to lay her at much more, I couldn’t back her at that price either…

At the prices, Giveaway Glance is probably the ‘value’ call in the race.

She was touched off by Miss Night Owl last time and may be capable of gaining her revenge today.

She can be backed at 8/1 – and must have a good chance of placing (plus a small chance of winning).

2:40 Our old buddy, Lil Rockerfeller makes his seasonal debut in this – hopefully his first race, of what will be a very productive season !

I tipped him for the Stayers Hurdle earlier in the week, because I knew he would be running today.

In truth, I don’t think he’s a certainty to win today (despite him being a relatively short priced favourite).
He is favoured by the conditions of the race – but will have to be close to his best if he’s going to see off a number of dangerous looking rivals.

I definitely wouldn’t consider backing him today – though I’m not inclined to oppose him either (partly because he’s a horse who never knows when he’s beaten !).
Wholestone looks his biggest danger – though I would expect Ptit Zig to also run well.

Of the longer priced runners, then Fountains Windfall is capable of outrunning his odds – assuming he gets an uncontested lead…

Hopefully, Lil Rockerfeller will find a way of coming home in front – or at very least, of running a big race…

3:15 The Charlie Hall chase looks a particularly tricky one to unravel…

With a straight bat, then Coneygree should win.

On adjusted official ratings, he’s the best horse in the race: 3lb superior to Cue Card – who will be 12 in a couple of months time.

Though he’s not run this season, I would expect Coneygree to be fit (the original intention was for him to make his seasonal debut at Listowel, last month).

He will need some cut in the ground – but that looked the case yesterday (and there has been a bit of overnight rain), so it’s hard not to see him going close.

Cue Card should be his main danger – even though he is now past his peak.

I would expect him to be close to spot on for the race – and it should be a good contest between the pair.

In theory, the younger horses such as Bristol de Mai, Definitly Red and Blaklion should have a chance of causing an upset. However, I suspect they will all have their sights set on other days…

Village Vic is a potential back to lay in running play (as he likes to front run): Whilst I could also see Double Shuffle and Shantou Flyer, outrunning their odds.

Both have a lot to find on the book, but the former is race fit – and should be suited by both course and distance; whilst the latter has a decent record fresh – and could be open to improvement.

Ayr

1:00 I was pretty keen on The Cobbler Swayne in this: on his debut for Pauline Robson, with Brian Hughes on top.

You have to take a chance on his fitness – but he’s potentially well handicapped and will handle the heavy ground.

The trouble is, he was very well backed last night (in to 3/1, from 6/1 early) – and as well as the guesswork, it looks like quite a competitive race…

I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him, if he does drift a little pre-race – but I can’t see much margin in his current price…

1:35 I like Cyrus Darius in this – as he’s potentially a lot better than his current mark…

His last ran was in the Champion hurdle - and whilst he never featured, its still some drop, to a class 3 handicap off a mark of just 137 !

He’s a horse with plenty of back class, having won a grade 2 hurdle race at Aintree a couple of years ago. However, he’s also a horse who’s had injury problems…

If they are all behind him – and he’s fit enough to do himself justice – then I suspect he will win this easily.

It’s tempting to take risk and tip him (as I think 11/4 is potentially a very good price) – but it just feels a bit early in the season to be getting involved with a relatively short priced horse who has a couple of question marks over him…

2:10 Kris Spin is the first official eye catcher to run this season – and I think he is worth supporting in this…

He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Plumpton, at the back end of last month.

He probably needed the run that day – and would certainly have preferred softer ground – so in the circumstances, I thought he ran an encouraging race to finish fifth, beaten less than 10 lengths…

He’s been dropped 3lb for that – though unfortunately, his rider Richard Patrick, has had his claim reduced by 2lb during the intervening period – so he effectively runs off a mark just 1lb lower !
Still, I think the jockey is good value for his claim – and it’s interesting that he comes all the way to Ayr for just the one ride.

The horse is certainly handicapped to go close on old form – and I think he retains a fair chunk of his former ability…

Hello George appears to be his biggest danger - but he is making his seasonal debut (as are the vast majority of the field).

The bottom line, is that I think Kris Spin should run very well.

I’ll be a little disappointed if he doesn’t at least place – and I think he has a reasonable chance of coming home in front.

2:45 This is another tight little handicap…

Upsilon Bleu is quite capable of winning it – if primed to do so – but on his seasonal debut, there must be a question mark over that…

In truth, there are question marks over virtually all of the runners, so it’s probably a race best left alone, from a betting perspective.
If my hand was forced, I’d opt for Rock on Rocky – and hope that he had derived plenty of benefit from his return run at Kelso, last month…

3:20 Mount Mews looks very much the one to beat in this – though it’s not easy to get excited about his price (5/4).

He was a high class novice last season – finishing second in the grade 1 Top Novice hurdle at Aintree, in the spring.

Based on that run, an opening handicap mark of 145 looks very fair – and I would expect him to be ready to do his job, on his seasonal debut.

He faces some fair opponents - but not with his class aspirations and it will be disappointing if he doesn’t come home in front.

Down Royal

2:30 Our Duke has been installed a very short priced favourite for this.

On the back of his win in last seasons Irish National, he is now he highest rated horse in the field – but there is a chance that rating flatters him and he owes his position as market leader as much to his reputation as his performances on the track.

In fairness, he does come from the same stable as the Gold Cup winner, Sizing John – so as Jessica Harrington rates him highly, there is a fair chance that he’s a very good horse – but all the same…

Certainly his jumping isn’t flawless – and he is making his seasonal debut – so there are potential chinks in his armour (regardless of how good he actually is).

Outlander is the second highest rated horse in the race – and he won last seasons Grade 1 Lexus chase.

On the back of that win he was rated 168 – a pound higher than Our Dukes current rating – and he was sent off at just 10/1 for the Gold Cup.
He ran disappointingly at Cheltenham - and subsequently at Punchestown.

However, he was apparently suffering with a back issue at the time – and he probably needed his reappearance run at Punchestown last month.
He finished well behind Road to Respect that day – but I would expect him to do much better today.
It’s interesting that he sports blinkers for the first time today – and I like the fact that he is Gordon Elliott’s only runner in the race.

Clearly he will need to bounce right back to his Lexus form to have any chance – but based on that run, he holds a number of today rivals and also sets a fair standard
Certainly if Our Duke and Road to Respect don’t bring their ‘A’ game, then he has the ability to take advantage.

20/1 is a decent price in the circumstances – and he is worth having on side.

3:05 Disko may well be the best horse in this field – but connections are doubtless hoping for a long, fruitful season with him, so I think he is worth opposing at a short price, on his seasonal debut.

Balko Des Flos has already had quite a fruitful season…

He was a comfortable winner of the Galway Plate, back in August – though he followed that up with a disappointing run behind A Toi Phil, at Gowran in September.

On that form, he can’t beat A Toi Phil – however, he finished well ahead of him in the Galway Plate – so it’s not clear which one is the better horse…

At the prices (9/1 and 7/2), I’m prepared to take a risk on Balco des Flos – and the presence of Davy in the saddle, just adds to the attraction…

At a huge price, I also want Tout Est Permis on side…

He’s only a 4 year old – with just 2 runs over fences to his name – however they have both been very good runs…

On the first of them, he beat Brelade – whilst second time out, he was runner up to the potentially top class, Death Duty.
As a 4 year old, he receives a lot of weight from all of his rivals – and with race fitness on his side, that could make him dangerous…

It’s interesting see that Andy Holding tipped him not long after me – so I’m clearly not the only one who gives the horse a chance !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Asc 1:50 Benetar 1pt win 5/1

Asc 2:25 Chris Pea Green 0.5pt win 16/1

Asc 3:00 Song Light 1pt win, 0.5pt place 12/1

Asc 3:35 Antony 1pt win 10/1

Ayr 2:10 Kris Spin 1pt win, 0.5pt place 12/1

DR 2:30 Outlander 1pt win, 0.5pt place 20/1

DR 3:05 Balco des Flos 1pt win 9/1

DR 3:05 Tout Est Permis 0.5pt win 33/1

Mentions

Asc 2:25 Calipto (P )

Asc 3:35 Thomas Brown (C )

Weth 2:05 Le Bague au Roi (P )

Weth 2:40 Lil Rockerfeller (O )

Weth 3:15 Coneygree (O )

Ayr 1:00 The Cobbler Swayne (P )

Ayr 1:35 Cyrus Darius (C )

Ayr 3:20 Moutain Mews (P )