Daily write-up - Nov 19th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Cheltenham and Fontwell in the UK – plus Punchestown and Cork in Ireland.

It’s the final day of the 3 day November meeting at Cheltenham – and I have to say, that I’ve been a bit disappointed by it…

It’s a meeting where historically I’ve done very well – so that fact I’ve not found a winner (yet !) obviously don’t help matters.

However, that’s not the main issue…

Across the 3 days, there have barely been 5 races which have lent themselves to betting – there has been a real paucity of opportunities.

Too many of the fields have either been huge and unfathomable – or tiny and obvious.
Neither one is going to draw in the considered Bettor…

That was the case yesterday – and it’s the same again today.

The first and last races on the card are best tackled with a pin: whilst the second, third and fifth have odds on favourites.

As a consequence, we are left with the Greatwood hurdle to focus on – and that’s hardly a ‘gimme’ !

Still, there’s no point bleating about it – no one is forcing us to bet.

It’s just disappointing when you look forward to something – and expend a lot of time and effort in preparation – only for the delivery to be decidedly limited…

It’s a similar situation at Punchestown – where there are some great horses running – but precious few betting opportunities.

In fact, if you want a bet, you are best focusing on the Fontwell card !

There’s plenty of interesting handicaps there – and even a feature ‘Big race’, in the shape of the Southern National.

Can you believe that on a day when there are lots of graded races taking place at Punchestown and Cheltenham, we have to look to Fontwell for a bet ?!?!

Such is life…

Anyway, enough of the pre-amble - and on to the rationale for the tips that I have issued - plus some thoughts on some of the days other races…

Cheltenham

1:15 The card kicks off with another huge field novice handicap hurdle – and this one is for conditional jockeys as well ! (just to add to the imponderables !).

Melrose Boy has been installed a very short priced favourite.

You have to think that a lot of that is down to his connections (trained by Harry Fry) – and I certainly wouldn’t be remotely tempted by quotes of less than 2/1.

Lip Service is more interesting, on his first run for Fergal O’Brien.

There a lot of guesswork involved – as the horse was running over fences, when last seen.

However, he was decent over hurdles - and the fitting of a tongue tie for the first time, could be significant (either positively, or negatively !).

Sunnytehliateagan return to the track, just a week after his narrow defeat at Sandown.

It will be particularly ironic if I have to listen to the interview about how the name came about – without actually having backed him ! (never mind tipped him !!).

Wylde Magic, Atlantic Grey and Another Frontier are 3 more of potential interest (I find it quite amazing hat Jamie Bargary can still ride in these races !).

The final one worthy of a mention, is Oski.

He’s a confirmed front-runner – and the defection of Tempuran could well make things a lot easier for him up front.

I’ve no idea whether he will be good enough to win – but he’s the sort who you should be able to back pre-race and then lay off in running, without causing any damage…

1:50 There are just 3 runners in this novice chase – which is a shame (particularly, as I quite fancied the fourth declared one, Capitaine – before he was taken out !).

All 3 are decent – though I doubt any of them are from the very top drawer…

Dan Skelton is likely to set the pace on North Hill Harvey – and as he handled the ground and jumped reasonably on his chasing debut (also over this course), he could prove difficult to peg back.

Equally, he could prove to be a sitting duck for either River Wylde or Ozzie the Oscar – both of whom receive 3lb from him.

Ultimately, if you want to get involved, then you pay your money and make your choice.

As the outsider of the 3, Ozzie the Oscar is probably the value option at 8/1 – but it’s another race which I’m likely to just watch…

2:25 Fox Norton won this race 12 months ago – and I would expect him to repeat the dose, this afternoon…

He improved massively at the end of last season – proving himself to be a genuine Grade 1 performer.

He should have no issue with todays ground – so the only question is whether Colin Tizzard has him fully tuned…

With a long season ahead, he may not be 100% - but in truth, 90% will probably be sufficient to see him home in front…

His main rival on the book, is Special Tiara.

He beat Fox Norton in last years Champion chase - but I’ll be very surprised if he upholds the form this afternoon.

Firstly, he’s likely to struggle with the ground – and secondly, he invariably needs his debut run of the season.

He will doubtless put the pace to the race, but he is highly likely to tire up the home straight.

On better ground, then Cloudy Dream would definitely be of interest.

Special Tiara could set the race up perfectly for him – but I just struggle to see him battling up the Cheltenham hill, on rain softened ground…

The other 3, simply don’t look up to the job.

Vaniteux is the most interesting of the trio – and I could see him posting an improved effort. However, he’s another who could struggle in the soft/heavy ground…

3:00 Whilst todays card is generally a little disappointing  - the main event certainly is not !

It was always likely to be a fascinating event  - but the fact that The New One now heads the weights, just adds to the intrigue…

I think he’s got half a chance as well – over a trip and on ground, that will suit him well.

I could definitely see him being thereabouts – I just suspect that younger legs might prove a bit too quick, at the business end…

And the legs don’t come much younger than those of Flying Tiger !

At just 4, he’s less than half the age of The New One – with hopefully, his best days in front of him.

That said, he’s already had one very good day – when winning the Fred Winter over todays course and distance, at last years festival.

He runs from a mark 7lb higher today – but that might not be sufficient to stop him following up.

Certainty, he travelled with real menace on his return at Wincanton, last Saturday.

Ultimately, he couldn’t get past London Prize, but early in the straight, he looked by far the most likely winner.

I suspect that run will have brought him on – whereas London Prize was already at a peak.

The 5lb weight turn around should also help – as I believe, will the return to a more demanding course…

The booking of Bryan Cooper also catches my eye. No doubt Chris will inform me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think that Cooper has ridden for Nick Williams previously, so I’ve little doubt the jockey will be looking to make a big impression.

It’s a very competitive race – but I think that Flying Tiger still has plenty of improvement in him, and could be a fair bit better than his current mark of 141.

My original intention was only to tip him in the race – but after yesterdays rain, I also want Neitzsche on side.

He finished third behind Flying Tiger in last seasons Fred Winter – and on the back of that, I made him an ‘eye catcher’ in the forum.

He didn’t run again last season however, as he’s a horse who needs cut in the ground.

Trainer, Brian Ellison has clearly targeted this race for him – giving him a couple of pipe openers on the flat and booking James Bowen.

My feeling is that Flying Tiger is the better horse – but the book says there should be little between the pair – and Neitzsche will certainly appreciate the ground.
Ellison’s Cheltenham record is a bit off putting (77 consecutive losers !) – but as Tim Vaughan showed at the last meeting, losing runs don’t go on for ever !

As you would expect in a race of this nature, most of the runners have a chance of sorts.

The aforementioned London Prize is probably the biggest danger – with William H Bonney, interesting at a price.

Favourite, Jenkins is respected because of his connections and his reputation – but equally, he’s one who you feel you have to take on.

Let’s hope I’ve chosen the right horses to take him on with !

3:30 The third small field race of the day – though again, it contains at least a couple of potentially very good horses…

You won’t see many easier winners, than Dame de Compagnie on her UK debut at Uttoxeter.

She sauntered into the lead that day – and won without breaking sweat.

She was seriously impressive and whilst she should face a much sterner test today, I’m not sure I will be prepared to bet against her being up to the task.

Slate House is the obvious one to beat.

He cost connections a fortune – and was well fancied, when a comfortable winner on his UK debut at the October meeting.

He’s very difficult to assess – but initial impressions were that he’s pretty useful.

Bedrock actually sets the standard for the race.

He’s a 140 rated horse – and has shown himself capable of running to that level.

That’s higher than either Dame De Compagnie or Slate House have achieved – but they both have potential to far exceed that mark.

4:00 The meeting closes with a bumper – a race I will always remember fondly as it’s the one in which Best Mate made his racecourse debut (and won – at 16/1 – backed by a few shrewdies )

It’s another impossible race to call, based on the formbook – so a fair bit of speculation is required…

Rather than side with any of the market leaders, I would be more inclined to take a chance on a couple of bigger priced runners…

Lisdoonvarna Lad finished second to Skidoosh on his debut at Worcester but I think there’s a chance he can reverse the placings today.

Skidoosh had a better passage through the race that day – whilst Lisdoonvaran Lad is also a year old and may therefore be better equipped to handle the greater stamina test that they will face this afternoon.

Respective prices of 6/1 and 14/1, seal the deal…

The other one of interest at a price, is Rio Quinto.

He’s making his debut under rules this afternoon, having run twice previously in Irish PTPs.

The really interesting thing with him, is his connections…

He’s trained by rookie trainer Olly Murphy – and he is really making a name for himself.

Even more interestingly, he is owned by Diana Whateley

She just doesn’t own bad horses (most of them are under the care of Philip Hobbs) –and I’ll therefore be surprised if Rio Quinto doesn’t prove himself to be very useful.
Whether he will be good enough to win this afternoon, is a different matter, but at 18/1 he may be worth a tiny play…

Fontwell

2:05 The Southern National is the feature race of Fontwells entire season – and I’m very grateful that it is taking place this afternoon !

12 months ago, the race won by the Paul Nicholls trained Aerial, with Fergal Mael Duin, second; Cyclop, third; Morney Wing, fourth; and Moss Park, sixth.

The winner isn’t running in todays race – but the other 4 are and it’ll be fascinating to see how things pan out, this time round…

All 4 horses have dropped in the ratings since last years race – and it is Cyclop who has dropped most (9lb).

From a pure handicapping perspective, he should come out on top today – and I think he will…

There are a couple of additional reasons for that: firstly, he’s a small horse, so having to carry less weight today (half a stone less) will definitely make things easier for him; and secondly, his return run over hurdles at Aintree, late last month, had all the hall marks of a prep run.

Settled out the back, he finished his race well, under minimum pressure.

That run should have put him spot on – and todays race looks like a carefully chosen target…

Of his rivals, then Fergal Mael Duin looks the most dangerous.

As I’ve inferred, he’s closely handicapped with Cyclop on their run in this race, last year.

He’s making his seasonal debut today - but he won on his seasonal debut last year.

The fact that Paddy Brennan is on board, seems a big pointer towards his chances (or at least a clear indicator that the stable fancy him).

You could reasonably expect Brennan to be at Cheltenham this afternoon – so the fact he’s riding at Fontwell, seems to be a tip for his mounts there (and Fergal Mael Duin, in particular).

Clearly this isn’t a 2 horse race (or even a 4 horse  race !) – but I do think that Cyclop and Fergal Mael Duin are the 2 to focus on.

Let’s hope they come home in that order !!

Punchestown

There are 3 Graded races on the Punchestown card – with some top classes horses running in them.

The feature race is the Grade 1 Morgiana hurdle, which sees the comeback of former Champion hurdler, Faugheen…

They say that they never come back – and at 9, he’s unlikely to be as good as he once was.
That said, few horses will ever be as good as he once was – so even if he returns at 90% of his former power, he’ll probably be too good for his rivals…

I couldn’t back him today – but I would love to see him win.

The Grade 2 Craddockstwon Novice chase takes place at 1:05.

Tombstone is plenty short enough at 6/4, against 3 credible rivals…

Brelade has been unfortunate to bump into 2 very good horses on his 2 runs over fences.

I doubt that Tombstone is as good as Footpad or Petit Mouchoir – so maybe he can

Make it third time lucky this afternoon…

The Florida Pearl novice chase completes the trio of graded events and the expectation is that Presenting Percy will build on his impressive chasing debut.

Again however, he faces some decent opponents so it may not be a formality for him.

That said, I would expect him to be up to the job – so it’ll be more a case of assessing just how good he is, with a view to tougher assignments in the future…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 3:00 Flying Tiger 1pt win, 0.5pt place 14/1

Chel 3:00 Nietzsch 0.5pt win 12/1

Font 2:05 Cyclop 1.5pt win 9/1

Font 2:05 Fergal Mael Duin 0.5pt win 5/1

Mentions

Chel 1:15 Lip Service (S )

Chel 2:25 Fox Norton (P )

Chel 3:30 Dame de Compagnie (P )

Chel 4:00 Rio Quinto (S )

Punc 1:05 Brelade (O )

Punc 1:40 Presenting Percy (P )