Daily write-up - Nov 7th

There are a couple of NH meetings today: at Exeter and Fairyhouse…

I don’t think we’ll get many days like today, during the season: mid-week days, outside of festivals, when there is a ‘Big’ race taking place…

It’s the Halden Gold cup this afternoon: the feature race of Exeters season.

I like the fact that a course is prepare to put on its biggest race during the week – it becomes the main event on the day, rather than just a side show.

I wish more courses would do the same – but they all tend to gravitate towards a Saturday (and the bigger crowds they can pull in).

I wasn’t committed to tipping in the race, mainly because of the issues with market strength.

Most of the horses in the race were priced shorter first thing this morning, than they were last night – and half of them will be longer still, come the off !

Still, that’s just the way it is and I felt there was still some value – even at early prices – so figured it worth a small play in the race.

Here’s my logic – and some thoughts on a few of the other races on the card…

Exeter

2:00 When assessing the form for this years Halden Gold cup, there are a couple of races, of particular interest:

The first is last years renewal, in which Sir Valentino just got the better of Garde Le Victoire.

At the revised weights and with a prep run under his belt (over hurdles, in France) Garde le Vicotire should gain his revenge this afternoon.

The other race of significance, is the Maghull novice chase from last years Aintree festival.

San Benedeto got the better of a wayward Forest Bihan in that contest – but arguably, Politologue would have beaten them both, if he’d not stumbled after jumping the final fence.

Working out which one of them should come out on top, isn’t easy.
The form isn’t straightforward to read – and all 3 horses still have scope for improvement.

On balance, I would be inclined to side with Politologue – partially because Sam Twiston Davies appears to have chosen him – but everything is so tight, its not a call you could be confident about…

All 5 of the above mentioned horses have some kind of chance this afternoon – as do the other 3 runners in the field: it really is that open !
Ar Mad is the potential class angle – and he’s a horse who can go well fresh; Whilst Gino Trail, still has potential – and will enjoy the softening ground…

Both of those 2 are confirmed front runners: whilst Politologue and Garde le Victoire  also like to force the pace (even though it’s not quite so important to them).

And it is that potential pace war, which is the angle I’m using on the race…

If there is a lot of pace, it is likely to suit the more patiently ridden horses.

That should be Forest Bihan, San Benedeto, Sir Valentino – and Vibrato Voltat…

From a handicapping perspective, I can’t make a compelling case for any of the first 3 mentioned – but I can for Vibrato Voltat…

He won this race 2 years ago – and off a mark 7lb higher than he races off today.

He followed that up with a third in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek chase - confirming the fact that he’s a top-notch performer, when on song.

Unfortunately, he’s gone off the boil a little over the past 18 months – though he’s still shown the odd bit of decent form.

The big thing with him today, is that he has his first run for Emma Lavelle.
He was previously trained by Paul Nicholls – and whilst you would conventionally think that going from Nicholls to Lavelle is a bad thing, there is a chance that might not be the case with him…

He’s always been a quirky performer – and a change of stable may just be what he needs to rekindle his interest.

He’s a horse who goes well fresh – so I don’t see that as an issue: whilst he clearly likes the track and trip – and any rain will work in his favour.
In short, I think he has a definite chance - in a very open race.

A bit like Outlander on Saturday, he’s no certainty – and may run a shocker - but at the price, he’s definitely worth a small risk.

2:35 Barney Dwan is a horse that I’m really looking forward to seeing back over fences, this season.

I honestly felt last season, that he could have gone to the top as a novice – if things had worked out for him.

He travelled like the wrath of God on his chasing debut at Kempton last November, before making a race losing mistaken at the final fence.

He was going to make amends at Wincanton, next time – but was brought down at the third last.
Maybe understandably at that point, connections decided to return him to hurdles – and he did pretty well over the smaller obstacles, culminating in a second place in the Pertemps final at Cheltenham,

The winner of that race, Presenting Percy, is now favourite for the RSA chase at the festival – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Barney Dwan going down the same route.

Certainly I think he’s got the ability to go close in a race such as that - and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him at 40/1 with the couple of bookmakers who have him priced up for the race.
If everything drops right for him this afternoon, I would expect him to be half that price for the race, come 3:00…

3:05 Above Board and Ask the Weatherman head the market for this – but it’s not easy to get a handle on either.

The former is a very unexposed novice: whilst the latter is having his first run under rules, having competed in hunter chases last season.

Both of them could be far better than their opening marks – but then again…

An option is to take them on with a horse who can be more accurately assessed – maybe backed each way…

Royal Palladium was certainly a possibility – but he has been well backed this morning.

Castarnie shouldn’t be able to beat him on their form from this track, last season

However, he would probably have won that day, if he’d not made crucial mistakes - and he may have a bit more scope for improvement.

It’s not an easy race to call, but Castarnie – EW at 16/1, holds a little bit of appeal…

3:35 This isn’t an easy race to call, either..!

Arthur McBride is an understandable favourite – as he has shown improved form on the flat recently,
If he can transfer that back over hurdles, he will take the beating.
However, he does look a little vulnerable and there are plenty of options to take him on with…

Rio Bravo is possibly the most interesting of them all.

He’s trained by Graeme McPherson – and is Paddy Brennans only ride of the day. That’s quite an unusual link up – and the horse has already been well backed…

At bigger prices, Western Wave and Fraser Canyon also hold some appeal.

He former is having his second run for Tom George and should still have room for improvement: whilst Dickie rides the latter for Tim Vaughan - and the horse could well improve for the fitting of first time cheekpieces.

They can both be backed at around 12/1 – which seems fair value…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Exe 2:00 Vibrato Voltat 0.5pt win 20/1

Mentions

Exe 2:35 Barney Dwan (P )

Exe 3:05 Castarnie (O )

Exe 3:35 Western Wave (O )

Exe 3:35 Fraser Canyon (O )