There are 3 NH meetings today: at Sandown and Ffos Las in
the UK – plus Navan in Ireland…
Generally speaking, the better Sunday racing tends to
take place in Ireland – but for the second week in a row, that’s not really the
case…
The
meeting at Navan does have some merit – with 3 graded events on the card – but
the fields are small, and whilst there are a few decent horses running, there
are precious few betting opportunities…
Sandown on the other hand, hosts an excellent meeting –
which not only features the most interesting horse running today (Might Bite),
but also 4 decent handicaps – including a veterans chase (which as you all know,
I do love !).
So
not too surprisingly, it’s the Sandown card where I focused my efforts – and I
managed to find a couple of tips for the day.
It’s
stretching a point to say that either are in ‘big’ races (both are class 3
events) – but the races they are competitive enough, so I would hope you were
all able to get close to the recommended price (please let me know if that’s not
the case)
Anyway, enough of the pre-amble – here’s the rationale
for the tips – and some thoughts on a few of the days other races…
Sandown
12:45 Ian Williams did us a favour yesterday, with
London Prize – and I’m hoping he can repeat the dose in this, with the
ridiculously named Sunnytahliateigan (I can hardly wait to see the post race
interview when the owner explains how the horse is named after his
granddaughters - or something similar !).
Sunny was a bit of an eye catcher last time at Cheltenham
on his seasonal debut…
Running over the bare 2 miles, he seemed to find the trip
a bit short, but was staying on very nicely at the end.
The
handicapper has generously dropped him 2lb for that run – and I’m sure he’s
going to run a big race this afternoon.
He
certainly looked progressive in the spring, when he won a couple of races – the
second one by a very comfortable 6 lengths.
He
has Edward Austin back on board this afternoon (he rode him at Cheltenham) – and
because he’s an apprentice attached to Ian Williams yard, he’s able to claim
10lb.
He
looked tidy enough to me at Cheltenham, so I suspect the extra allowance is a
bit of a bonus.
One
slight concern I do have, is the state of the ground. Sunny has only ever run on
good ground – so if it’s soft at Sandown (and that’s likely to be the case) we
are venturing into the unknown.
In
terms of his rivals, then Batien could be dangerous (but the market is wise to
him); whilst I would give Mr Fickle more of a chance than the betting does;
whilst Winterfell is one I will definitely be keeping an eye on…
For
today though, I think Sunny is the one to side with: I’ll even be prepared to
sit through that inevitable painful post race interview, if he does manage to
come home in front !
1:20 Kris Spin got the eye catchers off to a
brilliant start last Saturday – and I’m very hopeful that Crystal Lad can build
on that, this afternoon.
As
I’ve said many times, the eye catchers shouldn’t be backed blindly – only if
they have conditions in their favour.
But
that certainly appears to be the case for Crystal Lad, this
afternoon…
He
was an eye catcher last time, on his seasonal debut at Plumpton.
He
actually came to win his race, rounding the home turn – but then when out like a
light.
It
was a little strange to watch – but trainer Gary Moore subsequently said that
the reason was simply that he needed the run (and that was certainly how it
looked – assuming it wasn’t a physical issue).
With
that run behind him, I think he’s going to go very well this afternoon, at a
course where Moore tends to excel.
Crystal Lad certainly ran really well over the course on
his penultimate outing of last season.
That
was in the NH Novices handicap hurdle final – a race which has a history of
producing good class novice chasers.
He
wasn’t particularly strongly fancied that day – but briefly looked as if he was
going to win, when he shot a few lengths clear rounding the home
turn.
However, he’d done too much to soon, and he paid the
price up the Sandown hill.
It
was still a very good effort – and strongly suggested that he was a horse to
follow…
As a
result of his Plumpton run, the handicapper has dropped him by 4lbs.
That means he runs today from a mark 3lb lower than in the novices handicap hurdle final. It strikes me that he’s a well handicapped horse…
That means he runs today from a mark 3lb lower than in the novices handicap hurdle final. It strikes me that he’s a well handicapped horse…
The
nature of the race means that you have to respect most of his rivals – because
nearly all of them have plenty of scope for improvement.
That
said, Crystal Lad has just as much scope – and race fitness (which is not the
case for all of the runners).
In
summary, I really expect Crystal Lad to run a big race this afternoon – and,
assuming no jumping issues, I’ll be very disappointed if he’s not there or
thereabouts at the end…
2:20 The high light of the Sandown card, is the
seasonal reappearance of Might Bite.
He’s
a horse who really captured peoples imagination last season, when he put in huge
performance at both Kempton at Christmas, and Cheltenham in the
spring.
More
than that, he did it whilst exhibiting a bit of character – meaning that he’s a
horse you really can’t take your eyes off !
He
may well win this afternoon – but as I said in the forum last night, there are
quite a few reasons for opposing him and I would have to be a layer at 1.3 (the
price available on BF).
I
think the 2 main reasons are that on the book, he only has 3lb in hand on Label
Des Obeaux – and that one has race fitness on his side.
Plus, I suspect that Might Bite will only be 90% ready
(maybe even less) – so a defeat is a definite possibility (As de Mee and Frodon
are also both decent animals).
Nobody likes to see good horses beaten (the sport needs
them) – but I think Might Bite could lose this afternoon – and still come out of
the race with credit.
One
things for sure, those prepared to back him at 1/4 are far ‘braver’ than me…
3:30 It’s leg 8 of the Veterans series – but the
softening ground has led to 2 non runners, meaning only 6 will now go to
post…
More
than that, the defection of Creevytennant, takes away a potential source of
pace, which makes the race harder to read…
All
things being equal, Houblon des Obeaux has to be the one to beat.
Off
a mark of just 141, he’s frighteningly well handicapped – and has run well fresh
in the past (he finished third in last years Welsh National, on his seasonal
debut).
I do
have some reservations about the fitness of Venetias horses – but at 7/1 on the
opening show yesterday evening, I would have been prepared to take a
risk.
However, that evaporated during the evening – and with the NRs this morning, 3/1 is now the best price on offer.
That makes no appeal.
However, that evaporated during the evening – and with the NRs this morning, 3/1 is now the best price on offer.
That makes no appeal.
In
truth, I could make a case of sorts for most of the runners…
Double Ross definitely sets a decent standard for thee
race; whilst Third Intention is another well handicapped horse – who may not
have regressed too much:
Loose Chips and Pete the Feat are the pace angles in the
race – and either one is capable of stealing it form the front; and although
Vino Griego has most to prove, it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he were to
win.
On
balance, then it has to be a watching race – which is a shame, as I do love my
veterans chases 
Ffos Las
There’s not too much to get excited about at Ffos
Las…
The
best race on the card is probably the handicap hurdle at 3:05, where
Prime Venture looks very much the one to beat…
He
finished second in the NH novices final (the race in which Crystal Lad finished
fourth) - before filling the same spot
behind the very progressive Mias Storm, at Haydock…
He’s
making his seasonal debut this afternoon – and that’s a slight
concern.
However, he won over today’s course - and in heavy ground
– on his racecourse debut, so I would expect him to be fine.
Unfortunately, he’s a bit too short to back, at 11/8.
If I
were to get involved with the race, I would probably side with his stable
companion, Firebird Flyer.
He was horribly out of form last season – but as a result, his handicap mark has plummeted.
He was horribly out of form last season – but as a result, his handicap mark has plummeted.
He’s
now rated 120 – having won from as high as 138 in the past.
Clearly he’s a risky proposition – but he could be worth
a small play at 14/1 – maybe saving stakes on Prime Venture…
Navan
There are some decent horses running at Navan – but
finding a bet, is nearly impossible…
The
only one I considered, was Jers Girl, who takes on Apples Jade in the Lismullen
hurdle at 1:40…
The
race looks to be between the pair of them – and whilst Apples Jade is probably
the best horse in the race, she has to concede both race fitness and 7lb to Jers
Girl.
I
think it’s questionable whether she’ll be able to do that – and at around 7/2, I
would certainly have taken a risk on Jers Girl.
However, I others are wise to the doubts and 9/4 about Jers Girl seems about right.
However, I others are wise to the doubts and 9/4 about Jers Girl seems about right.
As
with the other races on the card, I think it is therefore one best
watched…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
TVB.
Tips
San
12:45 Sunnytahliateigan 1pt win 7/1
San
1:20 Crystal Lad 1.5pt win 11/1
Mentions
San
2:20 Might Bite (Lay)
San
3:30 Houblon des Obeaux (P )
Ffos
3:05 Firebird Flyer (S )
Nav
1:40 Jers Girl (O )
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