There are 4 NH meetings today: at Sandown, Hereford and
Ayr in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.
Before I get on to the action: in case any of you haven’t
seen, Paul has a Club ticket for Cheltenham on Wednesday, which he is offering
for sale, in the forum.
If anyone is interested, follow this link – and post accordingly on the thread !
If anyone is interested, follow this link – and post accordingly on the thread !
With
regard to today: then unsurprisingly, with Cheltenham on the horizon, things are
relatively low key…
The
meeting at Sandown is reasonable – and the 2 feature races are particularly
competitive (trying to sort them out, should help me prepare for next week
!).
However the supporting cards aren’t really of the quality
that you would expect on a Saturday.
That
said, there are some interesting races at both Hereford and Gowran – though non
of them were particularly easy to tip in, due to the weakness of the
markets.
However, through a show of patience, I’ve managed to
issue 6 tips on the day spread across 5 races !
Here’s the rationale behind them – plus my thoughts on a
few of the days other races…
Sandown
1:50 With 18 progressive novices pitched against
each other: I doubt that next weeks
handicaps will come much trickier than this one !
Finding a route into the race isn’t easy, as there is
minimal form to work with.
However, the prospect of very soft ground, does provide
an angle, as the winner will need to stay every yard of the 2m4f
trip.
Being relatively battle hardened is also likely to help –
and Melrose Boy ticks both of those boxes.
With
7 runs over hurdles, he is just about the most experienced hurlder in the field
– and he has also shown his ability to handle very soft ground.
He’s also arguably got the best form in the race, courtesy of his last time out third place in a Grade 3 handicap at todays course.
He’s also arguably got the best form in the race, courtesy of his last time out third place in a Grade 3 handicap at todays course.
On
the flip side, he’s more exposed than most of his rivals – but I have a feeling
that experience will count for a lot in todays race.
He’s
worth having on side at 10/1 – particularly as his stable of Harry Fry, has
returned from the cold snap in excellent form (3 winners and a second, from 5
runners).
The
other one I want on side, at a much bigger price, is Dentley de Mee.
He has actually run under rules once more than Melrose Boy (9 times) – though 4 of his runs have been in bumpers.
He has actually run under rules once more than Melrose Boy (9 times) – though 4 of his runs have been in bumpers.
Like
Melrose Boy he has also acquitted himself well in top class open company - in
his case, when finishing mid field in a very strong renewal of the Lanzarote
hurdle.
The
conditions are a slight unknown with him – as is the impact of first time cheek
pieces.
However, there are sufficient positives in his profile to
make him worth a small risk at a big price.
Favourite, Al Shahir, heads the list of potential
dangers.
He
holds Dentely de Mee on running in October. However, there wasn’t much between
them – and it’s worth taking a risk that Dentley has made the greater
improvement in the interim (or will be better suited by todays
conditions).
There is also a slight question mark over Al Shahir’s
stamina – as there is over another possible danger, Turtle Wars.
The
Dubai Way is another for the ‘short’ list: as is Sams Gunner.
Whilst at a bigger price, Game On is also quite
interesting…
All
in all then, not the easiest puzzle to solve !
2:25 The Imperial Cup is the big race of the day –
and it’s a little less competitive than the previous race on the
card…
In
fact, I’m a touch disappointed that I can’t find anything to tip in the race –
the trouble is, all of the horses I fancy have been well found in the
market.
Whatswrongwithyou is the most obvious one: but he’s 4/1
favourite and that’s too short in a race of this nature - particularly, as you
are relying on him improving on his first run in a handicap.
There is precious little between Friday Night Light and
Le Patriote, on their last time out runs at Ascot.
I
slightly favour the former – but only slightly !
I’m
not so keen on Call Me Lord – and do wonder if his main role in the race, is to
ensure that stable companion, Whatswrongwithyou, carries a reasonable
weight…
I
could really be interested in eye catcher, Master Of Irony – if the ground were
a bit better.
He’s
got some form on soft ground – and it should make the race more of a stamina
test – but I can’t help feeling that he won’t appreciate really heavy conditions
(and that’s what he’s likely to get).
There’s not much else that really grabs me in the race,
so there is a temptation to take a chance on Friday Night Light or Le
Patriote.
However, they may struggle to cope with Whatswrongwithyou: whilst the conditions could result in this becoming a bit of a lottery, with lowly weighted horses running better than their form would suggest.
However, they may struggle to cope with Whatswrongwithyou: whilst the conditions could result in this becoming a bit of a lottery, with lowly weighted horses running better than their form would suggest.
On
balance then, I decided a watching brief was the best course of action
!
3:00 This is a really interesting looking race –
though I’ve no idea what will win it !
I
honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the 8 runners come home in front –
and when that’s the case, I tend to gravitate towards the outsiders…
Belle Amis is currently a 16/1 shot – and she holds some
appeal at that price.
She
is held on last time out form, by Aimee de Sivola – but that one is favourite
for todays race.
In
fairness, Belle Amis does have 8 lengths to make up – but the race took place at
a time when Fergals O’Briens horses were out of form.
His
stable is back in form now – and whilst the form may not be reversed, I won’t be
at all surprised to see the gap closed significantly…
Princess Roxy is the other one in the field at a double
figure price – and again, I suspect that could under-estimate her
chance.
She’s unbeaten in a PTP and a Bumper – and, as the cliché
says, could be anything !
There is a bit too much guesswork for me to tip either
Belle Amis or Princess Roxy - but, at
the odds, they would definitely be my 2 against the field.
3:35 I’m keen on Tanit River in this.
He
was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Newbury – and it was disappointing
that he then chose a Friday afternoon when I was neither tipping nor blogging,
to make his next appearance !
That
was at todays course, 3 weeks ago – and whilst I gave him a really positive
mention in the forum, I’m sure a few of you will have missed that…
In
accordance with Sods Law, he duly hacked up – and at 16/1 !!
He’s
been raised 5lb for that win – but I don’t think that’s too harsh.
He’s
now on a mark of 128, which is just 1lb higher than when he dotted up at
Chepstow, just over 12 months ago.
We
know he’s in good form - and todays race
looks no stronger (in fact, it looks al little weaker) than the one he won last
month.
It
was always going to be a question of price with him…
He
was backed early last night – in to 5/2: but he’s drifted this morning to 7/2 –
and I think he’s worth risking at that price.
An
interesting aspect of today race, is that there could be some serious
pace.
Pete the Feat will undoubtedly try to lead: but Local Show and Fourth Act are both likely to take him on in their first time blinkers…
Pete the Feat will undoubtedly try to lead: but Local Show and Fourth Act are both likely to take him on in their first time blinkers…
Hopefully that will result in a pace war – meaning that
the race will be run to suit a closer (eg Tanit River !).
It
could certainly suit Shanroe Santos – though he doesn’t look particularly well
handicapped, having been raised 9lb for his last time out win.
Therefore, Horatio Hornblower and Topper Thornton could turn out to be the main dangers…
Therefore, Horatio Hornblower and Topper Thornton could turn out to be the main dangers…
I
respect the chances of them both – but I prefer the chances of Tanit
River.
Hereford
2:50 As those of you who pay attention to the eye
catchers will know, Catching On is a horse I’ve been following for the entire
season.
He
caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Uttoxeter in October – and has run 7
times since then, without winning !
Maybe I should take the hint and let go – but I can’t
help but feel that there is a race in him – under ideal conditions…
And
I think he gets his ideal conditions today.
5 of
his last 7 runs have been over fences - and he has a nasty habit of making
race-ending mistakes, when running over the bigger obstacles.
In
fact, mistakes have cost him dear in 2 of his last 3 races…
He’s
back over hurdles this afternoon – and that probably suits him best.
On
his 2 runs over hurdles this season, he ran a very creditable fourth at
Uttoxeter, over a trip short of his best: before pulling up at the same venue, a
month later.
I
can’t explain his poor run – though Aidan Coleman was on board that day, and I
wondered at the time, if it was an exercise in getting his handicap mark
reduced…
That’s not really happened, as he’s only a pound lower
today – but Jojno O’Neil Jnr is in the saddle claiming 7lb this afternoon – and
I think that might be key…
Judge et Parti looks by far the biggest danger, on his
debut for Nigel TD.
He
could be way ahead of his mark – and if that’s the case, Catching On won’t
win.
However, you should never be afraid of one horse – and
ignoring him, this looks a very winnable contest.
Certainly, I think Catching On is worth a small risk at a big price, in ideal conditions…
Certainly, I think Catching On is worth a small risk at a big price, in ideal conditions…
3:25 I briefly toyed with tipping Bigpipentobacee
in this…
He’s
a horse I like - and I don’t think he’s been harshly treated with just a 4lb
rise for his last time out win at Market Rasen.
I’ll
be surprised if he’s not up to defying his new mark of 116 – and it’s
interesting that he’s the only runner on the card of Tom George and Adrian
Heskin.
However, this is a potentially tough race…
Most
of the runners are of interest in one way or another, with Minella Scamp for
Fergal O’Brien/Paddy Brennan probably the most interesting of them
all.
That
said, I’d be fearful of King Kayf on his return form a long absence – if the
market spoke favourably: whilst The Dawn Man, Russian Service and Blackmill, are
all potential improvers on their first runs over fences (particularly the last
named).
On
balance, probably a race best watched, with an eye to the future…
4:35 I tipped Somchine on his penultimate run at
Warwick – and I’m siding with him again, this afternoon.
He
was well beaten in the Warwick race – and it was a similar story, last time out
at Sandown.
However, I felt he shaped with promise on both occasions
– whilst handicap mark continues to fall…
He’s
now running off a mark 7lb lower than at Warwick – and 4lb lower than when
taking this race last year.
In
short, he’s handicapped to win – and he’s in better form than his form figures
would have you believe !
These are the kind of horses that I look for – though
they need to be facing the right opposition…
That’s a slight worry here, as Somchine faces 3
progressive chasers, in the shape of
Kauto Riko, Burrenbridge Hotel and Beau Bay.
All
3 are on an upward curve and could be a fair bit better than their current
marks.
That
said, the handicapper hasn’t missed any of them – so it’s just whether he has
them in the right place.
The
other question is whether they will be as well suited to todays test, as
Somchine will…
Of
the others in the race, then I couldn’t completely dismiss either Savello or
Grey Gold.
They
are the complete opposite of Kauto Riko and friends – as they are regressive
chasers who the handicapper is relinquishing his grip on.
Certainly, I thought that Grey Gold showed some promise
last time – and he should be suited by today conditions and trip.
He
may be gone at the game – but at 20/1, could be worth saving stakes on, just in
case.
Gowran Park
3:05 This is the first of a couple of decent races
on the Gowran card…
It’s
run over just 2m2f – and such relatively short distance races, tend not to be
the strongest of contests in Ireland (for whatever reason ! ).
The thing that strikes me about the race, is that there should be lots of pace on.
The thing that strikes me about the race, is that there should be lots of pace on.
De
Benno insists on front running – but Robin Des Mana, Tongie, Draycott Place, La
Belle Vida and Presenting Mahler, all also like to race prominently.
As a
consequence, the race could be set up for a closer.
At a
price, Goulane Chosen is the one that interests me most – particularly as he
will need a stamina test at this trip.
In
fairness, 11/1 is probably not a bad price – I just feel a little uncomfortable
making a selection based primarily on how a race will pan out (as they can often
end up not being run quite as you expect !).
3:40 As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan
of Bonny Kate.
I’ve
already tipped her twice this season – and I’m with her again today.
When
I tipped her for the Troytown at Navan, back in November, I felt it was one of
the best tips I’d issue all season – and she didn’t let me down.
Although she only finished third, she ran a mighty race
(for a 20/1 shot !), trading at odds on in–running before tiring close
home.
That
was her first run of the season – and she probably needed it.
Therefore, she should have been an even better bet next time at Leopardstown – but that’s not how it panned out.
Therefore, she should have been an even better bet next time at Leopardstown – but that’s not how it panned out.
She
ran really disappointingly that day – but, she was ridden with restraint and the
ground was probably too quick for her.
She
has marked preference for very heavy ground – so the fact that todays meeting
was in doubt, has to be a positive for her chances !
It’s
also heartening to read, that Noel Meade thinks she’s in better form now than
she’s been all season.
If that’s the case, then she’ll run another mighty race today – mark my words !
If that’s the case, then she’ll run another mighty race today – mark my words !
Unfortunately, what she isn’t, is spectacularly well
handicapped - and that makes her vulnerable from a win perspective.
Pairofbrowneyes on his debut for Willie Mullins: and the
Gordon Elliott trained Space Cadet, are 2 who could be ahead of their
mark.
However, the former in particular, is not guaranteed to
run his race (over a longer trip than he normally races)…
A
number of the others can be expected run well – but I doubt any of them will run
significantly better than Bonny Kate.
Certainly, I expect her to run a big race – and if she
does, then I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t at least finish in the
places.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB
TVB
Tips
Sand
1:50 Melrose Boy 1pt win 10/1
Sand
1:50 Dentley de Mee 0.5pt win 25/1
Sand
3:35 Tanit River 2pt win 7/2
Here
2:50 Catching On 0.5pt win 14/1
Here
4:35 Somchine 1pt win 10/1
GowP
3:40 Bonny Kate 0.5pt EW 12/1
Mentions
Sand
2:25 Friday Night Light (O )
Sand
3:00 Belle Amis & Princess Roxy (S )
Here
3:25 Bigpipenotobacee (O )
Gowp
3:05 Goulane Chosen (C )
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