Daily write-up - Mar 17th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Uttoxeter, Kempton and Fontwell in the UK – plus Wexford in Ireland.

After the mayhem of the past 4 days, it’s back down to earth with a bump today !

That said, the post Cheltenham ‘bump’ is not as big as it used to be.

Both Uttoxeter and Kempton have made efforts over the past few years, to help ease us more gently, back into normality – and both courses have put on fair cards, this afternoon.

I’m not a great fan of a 4 day festival – but I do remember how horrible the Friday use to be, when it was only 3 days ! (and the Saturday didn’t tend to be much better either !)

On different matters: you will all have seen that I experienced a few email issued during the festival (great timing !).

From what I can work out, Google has started to view my tip messages (or more accurately, any short messages I send), as Spam.

I’ve no idea why it has just started to happen, when I’ve been sending such messages for over 5 years – but it has.

Anyway, as a short-term fix, I will send the tips from a back-up email address (TVB.Alerts).

Longer term, I may opt to post the tips in the forum.

You can then set things up, so that the forum automatically emails you when they are posted.

.

I’ll probably limp through to the end of the season using the TVB.Alerts email though – as it’s simplest !

As for today, I’ve just ended up with a couple of small tips (both of whom are eye catchers) – and I’ve limited my preview to 6 races (all of which are on terrestrial TV).

So relatively speaking, an easy day !

Here’s the rational for the tips – plus my other thoughts…

Kempton

2:05 There is an eye catcher running in this race, in the shape of Kayf Blanco.

He caught my eye on his penultimate run at Wetherby, when he was little unlucky not to win.

I tipped him that day (!) and despite a number of ponderous leaps, he still looked likely to win, jumping the last.

However, he was squeezed up by a couple of his rival on the run in and ultimately beaten neck into third pace.

He was also beaten neck on his most recent run, by Favorito Bucks, at todays track.

His jumping was a bit better last time (suggesting he is improving) – but his main rival just got away from the last quicker than him, and he couldn’t quite reel him back.

It was still a good effort – but he’s gone up 2lb in the handicap for it.

That’s in addition to the 2lb rise he got for the Wetherby run…

Despite that, I don’t think he’s handicapped out of things today – but I do think he may struggle with the drop back to 2 miles.

It’s likely to put a bit too much emphasis on quick jumping – which isn’t his main asset.

That said, it’s not an overly strong race, so he definitely has a chance – however, odds of 11/4, with the trip doubts, don’t really entice me…

2:40 This is the first of 2 consolation races on the card, for horses which were balloted out of Cheltenham handicaps (in this case, hurdle races).

Just a Sting and Azzerti are the 2 that interest me most – but unfortunately they are first and second favourite.

The former is having his first run in a handicap – and has decent novice form: whilst the latter beat Mr Antolini last time, and he went on to take the Imperial Cup, last Saturday…

Of the 2, I slightly prefer the chance of Just a Sting – but so does the market and I can see no value in a price of 9/2 in what is quite a competitive race…

Of the others, then Kildisart would be interesting – if you are prepared to ignore a disappointing effort last time: whilst I could also see Django Django running well.
What I can’t see however, is a decent angle into the race from a betting perspective !

3:15 I quite like the look of Bentelimar in this.

He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Huntingdon in January, when he gave Terrefort a bit of a scare.

That one won the grade 1 Scilly Isles novice chase on this next outing – and was runner up in the JLT at the festival on Thursday.

Bentelimar was trying to give him 4lb at Huntingdon, so was clearly facing an impossible task.

Bentelimar has only had one subsequent outing – when getting turned over at odds of 4/6, in a 3 horse race at Catterick.

However, that was on desperate ground – and the form of small field races can be mis-leading.

Under more suitable conditions today, I expect him to run very well.

As you would expect, this is quite a competitive race – and most of his rivals can be given a chance of sorts.

Tom Goerge runs 2, with jockey bookings suggesting that Brandon Hill is his main hope.

He certainly looks likely to run his race – but he also looks vulnerable, from a win perspective.

Kilcrea Vale has been backed into favouritism, but I prefer the chances of last time out winners, Favorito Bucks and Cobra De Mai.

That said, both have been nudged up the handicap for their wins, and that may prevent them from following up.

On balance, whilst he’s no certainty, I do think Bentelimar is the most likely race winner – and at around 15/2, he’s a fair price as well.

Uttoxeter

2:25 I can understand why Big River is favourite for this…

The form of his last time out defeat of Shantou Flyer, took a real boost at the festival this week: as did his previous third placing, behind Ms Parfois.

However, on his run prior to that, he was pulled up with a fibrillating heart – and 3 miles in heavy ground, with top weight, is going to be a real test for him.

I suspect he’s a very good horse – but I’m not sure I would want to be supporting him in such circumstances…

He also faces at least a couple of decent rivals, in the shape of Behind Time and Another Venture.

It really can only be a matter of time, before the former wins off his current mark of 120. The tricky bit is working out when it will happen.

I don’t think that conditions will be ideal for him today – but if he was well backed pre-race, I suspect that might not matter  !

Conditions will suit Another Venture much better – and he is definitely the percentage call in the race.

However, at 7/2, against at least a couple of rivals who could beat him, I’m happy to just watch…

3:00 Hitherjacques Lady is yet another eye catcher running today - and she’s another who I think has a good chance of winning…

She caught the eye on her seasonal debut at Ascot, back in November.

She ran really well that day, on ground that was probably too quick for her; leading until the final flight, and then staying on well for third place.

She was third again on her next start, at Sandown.
The ground was more suitable for her that day – but the opposition was a bit too hot.

She was taking on Poppy Kay and Midnight Jazz at level weights – and both are rated 8lb her superior.

In the circumstances, an 8 length defeat was creditable enough…

On her most recent run, Hitherjacques Lady was really pitched in at the deep end, against Le Bague au Roi in a grade 2 event at Ascot,

She was undoubtedly out of her depth that day – but still ran poorly, being pulled up a fair way from home.
However, a subsequent wind op, suggests all was not right physically, so hopefully that run can be ignored…

If she is back in peak form today, then she should run a big race.

She has a marked preference for heavy ground – and she will certainly get that !

Her form reads well, in the context of this race – and there’s even a chance that she might get an uncontested lead.

At 10/1, she is worth a small risk.

Again, there are plenty of potential dangers, with the unexposed Fleminport the most obvious one.

That said, he’s as likely to bomb out, as he is to run well…

Applesandpierres and Thelingy, are more solid options – but they both look beatable.
And whilst Clyne is the class horse in the race, he is weighted accordingly – and carrying almost 12 stone on todays ground is likely to be a challenge for him.

3:35 Having spent most of the week, trying to solve huge field handicaps, I was delighted to be presented with another one here ! (you can never get too much of a good thing, hey !!).

However, having spent a bit of time looking through the runners, I came to the conclusion that there wasn’t an obvious angle into the race.

I like the look of the younger, less exposed horses most: but Get on the Yager, Back to the Thatch and The Artful Cobbler, the 3 who fit that bill best, are the 3 at the head of the market.

At the other end of the spectrum, then the veterans, Alfie Spinner and Bob Ford also hold some appeal – particularly the former.

However, he’s now 13, and 4m2f in heavy ground is going to be a huge ask for him…

Whilst the appeal of Bob Ford is diminished by the fact that he appears to be the stable second string (behind West of the Edge).

I could give a chance to Western Climate – but probably not much better than his odds imply: whilst Hainan should also run well, if he’s recovered from his exertions in the Eider chase (and that may not be the case).

In short, it’s just not a race I feel I can get involved with.

If forced, then I would nominate The Artful Cobbler as the most likely winner: with Alfie Spinner the most interesting at a price.
But it’s a race that I’m happy enough to watch – officially speaking, at least !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Kemp 3:15 Bentelimar 1pt win 15/2

Uttx 3:00 Hitherjacques Lady 0.5pt win 10/1

Mentions

Kemp 2:05 Kayf Blanco (C )

Kemp 2:40 Just a Sting (P )

Uttx 2:25 Another Venture (O )

Uttx 3:35 The Artful Cobbler (O )