Daily write-up - Mar 31st

With Newton Abbot under water, there are just the 2 NH meetings today: at Haydock and Carlisle.

Strange things happen with the fixtures, as the season draws to its close - and whilst today is very quiet for a Saturday, tomorrow is going to be busy (as is Monday !).

One thing that never seems to change however, is the uncertainty over the weather !

I honestly can’t remember the last time, that I had confidence regarding the state of the ground – and it’s the same again today.

After overnight rain, the going at Haydock is described as ‘Soft - Good to Soft in places’ – but with the possibility of more rain prior to the start of racing, I’ll not be surprised if it’s borderline heavy by the off (though I’m guessing !)

The racing at Carlisle isn’t inspiring, so I’ve focused my attention on the Challenger series final day at Haydock.

A card consisting of 7 handicaps, sounded promising – but each of them looks fiendishly difficult to solve – and that’s before uncertainty over the ground, is taken into account.

In the circumstances, deciding which horses to tip was always going to be tricky.

I’ve ended up with just 3 on the day – but a few Mentions as well.

Here’s the rationale for the tips – plus my other thoughts on the card…

Haydock

2:05 Rather surprisingly, Amber Gambler is the only official eye catcher running at Haydock this afternoon (I would have expected quite a few).

And if he’d not run so disappointingly at Doncaster last time, I would almost certainly have tipped him.

Everything looked right for him to put up a really big run that day – but he was disappointing…

The only reason I can suggest, is that he was reappearing just 3 weeks after running really well at Sandown (when he caught the eye).

However, the horse has won on the back of shorter absences in the past, so I feel I’m clutching at straws…

If he is able to recapture his Sandown form, then I would expect him to go close – but if he runs as he did last time, he’ll have no chance…

In truth, even if he recaptures his Sandown form, he should be held by Masterplan – however, as I don’t fancy that one much, it makes it difficult for me to select Amber Gambler !

I would be prepared to oppose favourite, Crievehill, even though he was really impressive last time at Sandown – and a 9lb rise in the weights looks fair.

He was clearly well fancied at Sandown – and on a very different track I wouldn’t want to take a short price on him performing at the same level.

I prefer the chance of Creep Desbois, who was a little unfortunate not to collect at Leicester last time.
He strikes me as the most likely race winner – but a price of 3/1 in a relatively open  contest, holds very little appeal.

2:40 I think it is worth taking a small chance on Super Sid in this.

He is just about the least experienced runner in the field, having only raced 3 times over hurdles (and 5 times in his life).

However, he has already shown himself capable of useful form – and obviously still has plenty of scope for improvement.

He was a game winner on his hurdling debut at Southwell – and would have gone close to following up, if he’d not made a complete mess of the final flight, at Market Rasen.

He ended up finishing fourth that day – but looked like the second best horse in the race.

His only other run was his most recent, when he made his handicap debut at Chepstow.

He was quite well fancied for that race (9/2 joint second favourite) – but ran an absolute shocker.

I’ve no idea what happened there - but he was beaten half a mile from home and I think it can be filed in the ‘too bad to be true’ tray…

On the upside, that run means he’s a much bigger price today, than would otherwise have been the case - and that therefore makes him worth a small risk.

I find it interesting that Noel Fehily is in the saddle this afternoon – even thought Tom George’s stable jockey, Adrian Heskin is riding at Haydock (and rides Georges other runners on the card).

If you being harsh, you could blame Heskin for the final flight blunder which cost Super Sid his chance at Market Rasen – so maybe his connections feel the horse would benefit from a change.

Whatever, it strikes me as a positive move – and I always prefer to side with horses whose connections have taken some action to try and improve things.

Of the others, then the McCain pair, Chti Balco and William of Orange, both look potentially dangerous – though both all like to lead (which they won’t both be able to do).

Spectator is the other one that interests me.

He seems to be gradually getting the hang of hurdling – and is potentially well handicapped based on his flat form.
However, he shouldn’t really be able to beat William of Orange, based on their run at Wetherby back in November…

3:15 Behind Time was a good winner at Uttoxeter a fortnight ago and I think he is worth backing to follow up this afternoon.

I said before he ran last time, that there was no doubting he was potentially very well handicapped – it was simply a case of getting him to put it all in.

And the application of cheek pieces for the first time seemed to do the trick that day, as he battled well to get the better of the talented Big River.

Unsurprisingly, the aids are retained today – and hopefully they will be as effective second time.

He got a 7lb rise for the win – but I suspect he is capable of defying that.

There are 2 things which pushed me in to tipping Behind Time this afternoon.

Firstly, he is the only ride on the day, for Barry Geraghty – and more than that, Barry has come over specifically to ride him (he’s back in Ireland, riding at Cork, tomorrow afternoon).

Secondly, there is a lot of potential pace in the race – and that will suit Behind Time (who likes to have a lead). Furthermore, it obviously won’t suit a few of his rivals !

That said, it is quite a tough looking race…

Potters Legend is handicapped to win (but that’s been the case for a few races now !): whilst I thought Private Malone ran particularly well last time (but he’s one of the potential pace horses).

Abracadabra Sivola was a horse I’d been waiting for – but managed to miss last time, when connections decided they would go for it.

He’s still potentially well handicapped, even after that win – but that race was particularly poor – and he only just got home in front.

Horatio Hornblower is probably the one I fear most – as he gets to run off the same mark as last time, when just edged out by Pete the Feat.

However, that’s probably as good as he is – whereas Behind Time still has plenty of scope for improvement.

3:50 I was half tempted by Castafiore in this…

Certainly I think she will run well, in conditions that will suit her admirably.

She was an impressive winner on her penultimate run at Uttoxeter, when 5lb claimer, Paul O’Brien rode his rivals to sleep, from the front.

However, she was raised 10lb for that win – and wasn’t able to repeat the trick next time, in a much hotter contest.

She has been eased 2lb for that run – and todays race isn’t anywhere near as strong.

I’m pretty sure that O’Brien will again try to make all – and with few rivals for the lead, I can certainly see her running well.

Whether he will be able to get her home in front however, is a different matter.
There is a long home straight at Haydock – and she is likely to be a suiting duck for much of it.

Rather than tip her to win, my inclination will be to back her pre-race - and then lay off in running (for a profit or a free bet).

As for the most likely race winner: then I think that is Lamanver Odyssey – but she makes limited appeal at 5/1 in a race where it is not possible to get a proper handle on a number of her rivals.

4:25 This is possibly the hardest race on the card to unravel – and I’m disinclined to try too hard !

If the ground had been quicker, I would have been quite keen on Fingerontheswitch.

He is potentially very well handicapped - and has been running better than his form figures imply.
However, he has a preference for decent ground (and he’s not going to get that).

In the circumstances, I would therefore opt for Classic Ben as the most likely winner – but it would be with limited confidence (certainly not sufficient to consider tipping him).

Of the others, then whilst Nautical Nitwit lacks scope, he is capable of running in to a place – and therefore might not be a bad EW bet at 20/1.

Whilst Zeroshadesofgrey is the only confirmed front runner in the field and therefore may make a good pre-race back to lay in running (the only proviso being, that he is running over a longer trip than normal, so there is a chance he could be ridden with restraint in an attempt to preserve his stamina).

On balance, probably a race best watched !!
 

5:00 I’m quite keen on Milly Baloo in this, as it strikes me she’s been targeted at the race…

She would have won on her penultimate outing at Catterick, if she hadn’t run out, approaching the final fence.

Obviously, that’s puts a slight question mark against her temperament – and I think it very interesting that connections have opted to put Danny Cook in the saddle this afternoon (I can’t see him taking kindly to such behaviour !).

In fairness, she showed no wayward tendencies on her only subsequent run – when second at Market Rasen, 3 weeks ago.
That run was over hurdles ,which also strikes me as interesting, as it suggests that connections wanted to preserve a decent chase mark, whilst still getting a run into her.

Certainly, she is not badly handicapped, based on the Catterick run – particularly as the form of the race was boosted by the eventual winner Same Circus following up at Bangor (where she beat Rons Dream).

I’m familiar with most of her rivals – and whilst I respect the chances of Rons Dream and Socksy, I’m hopeful Milly Ballo will have their measure.

For those of you feeling particularly adventurous, then a forecast with Sheneededtherun, might hold some appeal.

The 2 horses are quite closely matched on 2 pieces of form – and whilst I fancy Milly Ballo more, wherever she finishes, Sheneededtherun shouldn’t be far away…

5:35 This is another very trappy race in which I don’t have a particularly strong opinion…

Talk of the South goes in search of a hattrick, having previously looked incapable of ever winning !

His price is on the drift – and if it goes beyond 5/1, he would become of some interest…

Blameitalonmyroots is the other I was half interested in, with a 7lb claimer in the saddle – but the removal of cheek prices which have been worn for her last 2 runs, may not be a positive move.

Kilcullen Flam has a chance – but so too, do virtually all of the runners…

Another race which is probably best watched !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Hayd 2:40 Super Sid 0.5pt win 12/1

Hayd 3:15 Behind Time 1pt win 9/2

Hayd 5:00 Milly Baloo 1pt win 11/1

Mentions

Hayd 2:05 Amber Gambler (S )

Hayd 3:50 Castafiore (O )

Hayd 4:25 Classic Ben (O )

Hayd 5:35 Blameitalonmyroots (O )