Day
4 of the Cheltenham festival.
Gold
Cup day – and the final day of the most intense week of the year !
Hand
on heart, I’ve not enjoyed it quite as much as some of the festivals in the
past…
The
uncertainty over the state of the ground hasn’t helped: nor has the domination
of Mullins and Elliott (and worse still, the endless droning on about said
domination, by the media !).
I’ve
also felt a little uncomfortable about how accurate the markets have
been.
I
expect to have to follow the money (or anticipate where it’s going to go !) at
the smaller meetings – but it’s definitely the case at Cheltenham as well,
nowadays.
I
guess all those expensive horses have to be paid for somehow !
All
this said, victory for Apples Shakira in the opener, is likely to completely
change my view on the meeting !
It’s
rare that I want a horse to win quite as much as I want her to (the last one
that springs to mind, is Lil Rockerfeller at last years festival !).
Whether she’s up to the job, remains to be
seen.
Here
are my thoughts on her chances: the chances of the 9 other tips issued on the
day – and even the one race where I’ve not issued a tip !
Cheltenham
1:30 For die hard TVB fans, this is the most
eagerly anticipated race of the festival.
In
fact, it’s probably the most eagerly anticipated race of the entire season
!
And
the reason for that, is because most of us are sitting on an ante-post voucher
for Apples Shikara, at odds of at least 16/1…
The
tip was issued, back in November, before Apples Shakira had even set foot on a
UK racecourse.
As I said at the time, I’m not in the habit of tipping horses who’ve not yet run in the UK - but I just sensed she was something special.
As I said at the time, I’m not in the habit of tipping horses who’ve not yet run in the UK - but I just sensed she was something special.
As
I’m sure you can imagine, I read lots of interviews with trainers and jockeys –
and she kept on getting glowing mentions from the likes of Nicky Henderson and
Barry Geraghty.
Considering the number of horses they deal with, that
seemed significant.
She
also has a pedigree to die for – as a full sister to the brilliant Apples
Jade.
If
she had not run at all previously, then I might not have been prepared to side
with her – but a win on her sole run in France seemed to suggest she had
inherited most of the family ability.
The
rest as they say, is history.
3
runs, all over today course and distance; all in soft ground – and 3
wins…
There are question marks over the value of her form, as
she’s only beaten a total of 13 rivals – but there is no question over how good
she looked on each occasion.
It’s
also reassuring to see that she heads both the Topspeed and Racing Post ratings
– I suspect she is very good indeed.
Of
course we will find out for definite this afternoon.
She may only face 8 rivals – but what they lack in number, they make up for in quality.
She may only face 8 rivals – but what they lack in number, they make up for in quality.
Fortunately, we also have one of them on side, in the
shape of Farclas.
He’s
another who I tipped earlier in the season, just before he ran in the grade 1
novice event at the Dublin racing festival.
He ran really well in that race – just getting out pointed by Mr Adjudicator.
He ran really well in that race – just getting out pointed by Mr Adjudicator.
It’s
interesting to see that Farclas is now shorter in the betting than Mr
Adjudicator – though that could be down to the Gordon Elliott factor, as much as
anything else !
In
addition to Mr Adjudicator, Willie Mullins also saddles Stormy Island, Saldier
and Sayo – and all 3 have a chance.
The first named looks to be his strongest representative - but as we’ve seen a few times this week, you never know for sure with Willie !
The other big danger in the race is Redicean.
The first named looks to be his strongest representative - but as we’ve seen a few times this week, you never know for sure with Willie !
The other big danger in the race is Redicean.
He
was an impressive winner at Kempton last time – but I’m hopeful that he’ll
struggle on todays soft ground !
Apples Shakira won’t – even though Nicky Henderson thinks
she’ll be better on better ground.
That
may well be true – but she is proven on soft and she’s proven to be very
useful.
I
really do hope she comes home in front – but mainly because it will be a nice
story to tell !
I
don’t think she’s a certainty – but I do think she’s a worthy favourite.
I also think that if she is beaten, Farclas has as good a chance as anything, of inflicting the defeat.
I also think that if she is beaten, Farclas has as good a chance as anything, of inflicting the defeat.
It’s
a nice position to be in – but until she’s crossed the line in front, I’m not
going to get too carried away !
2:10 As you would expect, this is a very
competitive handicap – and it’s fascinating to see that 6 of the top 7 in the
betting are trained by either Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott.
It’s
almost as if punters think they found the geese that lay the golden eggs
!
Ofcourse, the way the pair of them have ripped through
the festival, it’s hardly surprising – but generally speaking, it pays to take a
contrary view when you are betting (go against the crowd !).
That
said, it’s not why I‘ve chosen to side with Flying Tiger – or indeed Smaoineamh
Ailann.
The
former was an eye catcher, very early in the season – and whilst his time as
such has now come to an end (3 loses and you are out !), he’s continued to run
in very eye catching fashion.
That
was particularly true on his most recent outing, when he finished a 5 length
4th to Elgin in the Grade 2 Kingwell hurdle at Wincanton.
The
winner ran fifth in the Champion hurdle on Tuesday – a few places ahead of the
Kingwell runner up, Ch’Tbello.
Whilst Call me Lord, who was third in that race, subsequently finished a very close second in Saturdays Imperial Cup.
Whilst Call me Lord, who was third in that race, subsequently finished a very close second in Saturdays Imperial Cup.
In
short, it’s very strong form.
It’s
therefore somewhat surprising that the handicapper chose not to adjust Flying
Tigers mark – and he gets to run off 140 – just 6lb higher than the mark he won
last seasons Fred Winter from.
The potential issue with him is the ground – as he would prefer a quick surface.
The potential issue with him is the ground – as he would prefer a quick surface.
He
may get way with it – but he may not. The betting will likely tell us, pre-race
!
The
other one I want on side, is Smaoineamh Ailann.
She
is trained by Robert Walford and looks to have been layed out for the
race.
When
she won at the course in December, he described her as the quickest horse he has
at home.
It’s
maybe therefore not too surprising that he has chosen to target her at a
valuable race, such as this.
She
has plenty to prove – and again the ground may not be ideal – but at a big
price, I think she is worth a small risk.
Outside of these 2, then the Mullins/Elliott battalions
do look the most likely.
That said, choosing which one of them, is a task in itself !
That said, choosing which one of them, is a task in itself !
Duca
de Thaix is probably the one I’d be most fearful of.
At
bigger prices, then A Hares Breath will almost certainly run his race – and may
be capable of getting placed: Whilst Le
Richebourg, looks quite interesting for Joseph O’Brien…
2:50 This looks like a high class renewal of this
race, which is a shame, as I could have really fancied Dortmund Park
!
In
truth, I’m pleased that I managed to tip him before Gordon Elliott started
banging in the winners yesterday afternoon – as I reckon his successes shaved a
few points off the price of most of his runners today !
Dortmund Park really caught my eye on his penultimate run
at Thurles, when he absolutely hacked up.
You
won’t see racing in worse conditions – it was quite literally a bog – but he
seemed to absolutely relish it.
Whilst everything else in the race was struggling to put
one leg in front of another, he cruised round – and then sprinted clear
(relatively speaking !).
On
the back of that run, he was made second favourite for a Grade 1 event at the
Dublin racing festival – but that race took place only 12 days after the Thurles
race and I suspect it came too soon.
Not
that he ran badly – he just didn’t run as well as I felt him
capable…
Ofcourse, part of that might have been down to the conditions, which were nowhere near as bad: whilst it is also interesting to see that he’s had a wind op in the interim.
Ofcourse, part of that might have been down to the conditions, which were nowhere near as bad: whilst it is also interesting to see that he’s had a wind op in the interim.
In
truth, he’s a selection based on gut feel – and on the assumption that the
ground will be desperate.
This
race can turn into a war – and from what I saw at Thurles, if that happens, it
will suit Dortmund Park admirably !
If
conditions aren’t quite that bad, then I’ve less idea over what will win !
Nicky Henderson saddles 3 very promising horses in
Santini, Chef des Obeaux and OK Corral – and all 3 have sufficient ability to go
close.
Santini is probably the best of the 3 – but he is also
the least experienced and that could catch him out.
Chris’s Dream is the one I will fear most if conditions
are really bad.
He
hacked up on desperate ground at Clonmel last time – and it’s impossible to know
just how good he might be.
Poetic Rhythm and Callet Mad are both useful animals –
but I don’t think they will beat Dortmund Park or Chris’s Dream, if it is heavy:
or the Henderson trio, if it isn’t.
And
whilst Tower Bridge did the service a massive favour when winning at 40/1 last
time, I’ll be a little surprised if he can repeat the dose today (though I won’t
begrudge him it, if he does !).
It’s
crazy to see the likes of Paisley Park and Mulcahys Hill at 33/1+ - but this
really is a very strong race, and the reality is, talented as they are, they
probably won’t be good enough to feature.
3:30 Even in the absence of reigning champion,
Sizing John, a really strong field will go to post for the Gold Cup.
The
stand out horse, is Might Bite: however a combination of his suspect temperament
and potentially unsuitable ground, make him look vulnerable.
At
this level, even the best need most things in their favour – and one or two of
his boxes are unticked !
If
he does win, it will be testament to his enormous ability (of which there is
little doubt) – but I think he warrants being taken on…
There are quite a few who you could legitimately oppose
him with – but I’ve gone for a couple of ‘value’ options (as is generally my
want !).
The
first of them, is Road to Respect.
I’ve
honestly lost count of the number of times that I’ve nearly tipped him this
season !
I
nearly tipped him ante-post for the Christmas chase at Leopardstown – and then
nearly tipped him again on the day (when he won !): I also nearly tipped him
ante-post for the Gold cup, prior to that win…
Generally, the reason I didn’t was because I was
struggling to separate him and his stable/owner companion, Disko.
They
are similar horses and I couldn’t be sure which of them would run in which race
(and I hate getting the wrong races for ante-post selections !).
As it turned out, Disko picked up an injury and is now out for the season – so things are much simpler…
As it turned out, Disko picked up an injury and is now out for the season – so things are much simpler…
In
terms of the case for Road to Respect, then he is a Grade 1 winner and a
previous festival winner, who is already the second highest rated horse in the
race – but still has plenty of scope for improvement.
He should also have no issue with trip or ground.
He should also have no issue with trip or ground.
As
profiles go, his is pretty good !
The
other one I want on side, is American.
His
profile isn’t quite so good – but he’s a seriously talented horse.
Unfortunately he’s also very fragile – and will only be
risked on soft ground.
He
got that last time out, when he finished second to Definitly Red in the Cotswold
chase.
Superficially, there is no reason to think he will
reverse that form: however, I’m sure American will have derived greater benefit
from the run – and briefly, just before the home turn, I thought he was going to
win the race (and I’ve learnt to trust those in running feelings !).
I
also find it very interesting that connections have seen fit to supplement him
for the race.
It’s
not a cheap thing to do – and it suggests to me that they have him spot on and
are expecting a big run.
He’s
got one of the best men in the business on his back – and simply, I don’t think
he should be 25/1 for any race that he runs in !
It’s
obviously possible to make a case for plenty of the others – but equally, none
of them have perfect profiles.
If
the jumping of Our Duke holds up, he will be hard to beat: and it’s a similar
story with Killultagh Vic.
Native River should run his race, and could easily hit
the frame again – but is vulnerable from a win perspective.
Definitly Red is similar – and shouldn’t really be good
enough to win, unless conditions get desperate (which I guess they
might).
You
have to get a bit more creative beyond that point – though I wouldn’t be
surprised to see Bachasson run well at a big price. He’s looked an improved
performer this season.
All
this said, I’m happy to side with Road to Respect and American.
The
former is the sensible choice, who ticks all the boxes: but the latter has
sufficient ability to cause a shock.
4:10 I quite like the look of Virak, in
this…
At
his peak, he was a borderline Gold Cup horse (rated 159) – and whilst he is now
rated 20lb below that level, he’s only 9, so really shouldn’t be in
decline.
That
said, something clearly hasn’t been right with him, as he’s competing in this
race and not the previous one on the card !
I
don’t know what his issues have been – but a fair chunk of the ability has
looked to be there, on his 2 runs this season – and crucially, he’s always been
horse who has relished heavy ground.
In
fact, I’ve little doubt that if Paul Nichols had been talking up his chances,
rather than those of his stablemate, Wonderful Charm, he would be a much shorter
price.
The
case for Wonderful Charm is maybe a little more obvious, as he was a close
second in this race 12 months ago.
However, he’s a year older than Virak – and doesn’t
really want the ground as soft as he’s likely to get today.
I
suspect that bigger dangers to Virak will come from the Irish duo Foxrock and
Burning Ambition.
The
Former was a grade 1 performer, at his peak; whilst the latter is the new kid on
the block, who has been very successful in the Pointing field.
Of
the others, then last years winner, Pacha du Polder should again run well; as
too should Balnaslow (I can still feel the pain from him not getting placed 12
months ago !).
Whilst Grand Vision should make a very good pre-race back
to lay in running, as he travels and jumps (and also looks like Desert Orchid !)
– but is likely to be found wanting for stamina from the home turn.
4:50 This looks an absolute minefield – and
tempting as it was, to get involved with something in the race, I managed to
resist !
A
little bit like the Fred Winter hurdle on Wednesday it’s difficult to know where
to begin.
24
runners – most of whom are unexposed and with plenty of scope for improvement,
I’d struggle to form a short list of less than 10.
Gordon Elliott looks to have a particularly strong hand
in the race, with at least 3 of his 4 runners appearing likely sorts.
Similarly, Willie Mullins saddles 3 very interesting
runners: as does Nicky Henderson.
Outside those 3 stables, then Early Doors for Joseph
O’Brien and Melrose Boy for Harry Fry are 2 others that catch the
eye.
If
forced to narrow it down to 3, I would go with Eliotts Sire du Berlais,
Henderson’s Dies de Bieffes and Early Doors.
The first 2 named are ridden by Donal McInerney and James Bowen respectively – and it’s only a matter of time before they both ride festival winners.
The first 2 named are ridden by Donal McInerney and James Bowen respectively – and it’s only a matter of time before they both ride festival winners.
I
certainly wouldn’t bet a lot of money about one of them starting with this
race…
5:30 The final race of the festival, and I am
quite struck by how many of the fancied runners would prefer decent
ground.
I
can see this race being run in desperate condtions, and that just won’t suit the
likes of Vaniteux, Theinval, Valdez – or last years winner, Rock The
World.
North Hill Harvey will have no issue with it
though.
Conditions were pretty bad, when he won the Greatwood
over hurdles, last season – and also when he won over fences at the course, back
in November.
That
was only a 3 horse race – but he won it very well: whilst his form with the top
class novice, Sceau Royale, stands up to the closest scrutiny.
He’s
also unbeaten at Cheltenham – with 4 wins from 4 runs – which is impressive by
anyones standards.
I’ve
little doubt that he’s been targeted at this race by the Skeltons – and the
application of first time cheek pieces looks a calculated move.
Touch wood, he jumps very well for a novice – and he
looks a worthy favourite…
That
said, I suspect he will need to be on his ‘A’ game if he is to get the better of
Top Gamble.
He’s
arguably been a little disappointing this season – but his handicap mark has
dropped as a consequence.
Considering he finished a close up 4th in the
Champion chase just 12 months ago, on unsuitably quick ground, he looks very
handicapped on a mark of 149.
Again, cheek pieces are applied for the first time – and I can understand that.
Again, cheek pieces are applied for the first time – and I can understand that.
He
also gets Davy Russell back in the saddle – and that looks just as
significant.
Davy
has only ridden the horse 4 times previously – but that included his 3 best
runs.
Davy’s not in bad form himself, either !
There are a few dangers in the race: the likes of Le
Prezien (if his jumping holds up) and Doitforthevillage (if he’s good enough) –
but I do think that North Hill Harvey and Top Gamble, give us a particularly
strong hand in this race.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
TVB.
Tips
Chel
1:30 Apples Shakira 0.5pt win 16/1 (AP)
Chel
1:30 Farclas 0.5pt win 20/1 (AP)
Chel
2:10 Flying Tiger 0.5pt win 16/1 (AP)
Chel
2:10 Smaoineamh Ailann 0.5pt win 20/1
Chel
2:50 Dortmund Park 0.5pt win 25/1
Chel
3:30 American 0.5pt win 25/1 (AP)
Chel
3:30 Road to Respect 0.5pt win 12/1
Chel
4:10 Virak 1pt win 12/1 (AP)
Chel
5:30 North Hill Harvey 1pt win 8/1 (AP)
Chel
5:30 Top Gamble 0.5pt EW 16/1
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