Daily write-up - Mar 16th (Cheltenham Day 4)

Day 4 of the Cheltenham festival.

Gold Cup day – and the final day of the most intense week of the year !

Hand on heart, I’ve not enjoyed it quite as much as some of the festivals in the past…

The uncertainty over the state of the ground hasn’t helped: nor has the domination of Mullins and Elliott (and worse still, the endless droning on about said domination, by the media !).

I’ve also felt a little uncomfortable about how accurate the markets have been.

I expect to have to follow the money (or anticipate where it’s going to go !) at the smaller meetings – but it’s definitely the case at Cheltenham as well, nowadays.

I guess all those expensive horses have to be paid for somehow !

All this said, victory for Apples Shakira in the opener, is likely to completely change my view on the meeting !

It’s rare that I want a horse to win quite as much as I want her to (the last one that springs to mind, is Lil Rockerfeller at last years festival !).

Whether she’s up to the job, remains to be seen.

Here are my thoughts on her chances: the chances of the 9 other tips issued on the day – and even the one race where I’ve not issued a tip !

Cheltenham

1:30 For die hard TVB fans, this is the most eagerly anticipated race of the festival.

In fact, it’s probably the most eagerly anticipated race of the entire season !

And the reason for that, is because most of us are sitting on an ante-post voucher for Apples Shikara, at odds of at least 16/1…

The tip was issued, back in November, before Apples Shakira had even set foot on a UK racecourse.
As I said at the time, I’m not in the habit of tipping horses who’ve not yet run in the UK  - but I just sensed she was something special.

As I’m sure you can imagine, I read lots of interviews with trainers and jockeys – and she kept on getting glowing mentions from the likes of Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty.

Considering the number of horses they deal with, that seemed significant.

She also has a pedigree to die for – as a full sister to the brilliant Apples Jade.

If she had not run at all previously, then I might not have been prepared to side with her – but a win on her sole run in France seemed to suggest she had inherited most of the family ability.

The rest as they say, is history.

3 runs, all over today course and distance; all in soft ground – and 3 wins…

There are question marks over the value of her form, as she’s only beaten a total of 13 rivals – but there is no question over how good she looked on each occasion.

It’s also reassuring to see that she heads both the Topspeed and Racing Post ratings – I suspect she is very good indeed.

Of course we will find out for definite this afternoon.
She may only face 8 rivals – but what they lack in number, they make up for in quality.

Fortunately, we also have one of them on side, in the shape of Farclas.

He’s another who I tipped earlier in the season, just before he ran in the grade 1 novice event at the Dublin racing festival.
He ran really well in that race – just getting out pointed by Mr Adjudicator.

It’s interesting to see that Farclas is now shorter in the betting than Mr Adjudicator – though that could be down to the Gordon Elliott factor, as much as anything else !

In addition to Mr Adjudicator, Willie Mullins also saddles Stormy Island, Saldier and Sayo – and all 3 have a chance.
The first named looks to be his strongest representative - but as we’ve seen a few times this week, you never know for sure with Willie !
The other big danger in the race is Redicean.

He was an impressive winner at Kempton last time – but I’m hopeful that he’ll struggle on todays soft ground !

Apples Shakira won’t – even though Nicky Henderson thinks she’ll be better on better ground.

That may well be true – but she is proven on soft and she’s proven to be very useful.

I really do hope she comes home in front – but mainly because it will be a nice story to tell !

I don’t think she’s a certainty – but I do think she’s a worthy favourite.
I also think that if she is beaten, Farclas has as good a chance as anything, of inflicting the defeat.

It’s a nice position to be in – but until she’s crossed the line in front, I’m not going to get too carried away !

2:10 As you would expect, this is a very competitive handicap – and it’s fascinating to see that 6 of the top 7 in the betting are trained by either Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott.

It’s almost as if punters think they found the geese that lay the golden eggs !

Ofcourse, the way the pair of them have ripped through the festival, it’s hardly surprising – but generally speaking, it pays to take a contrary view when you are betting (go against the crowd !).

That said, it’s not why I‘ve chosen to side with Flying Tiger – or indeed Smaoineamh Ailann.

The former was an eye catcher, very early in the season – and whilst his time as such has now come to an end (3 loses and you are out !), he’s continued to run in very eye catching fashion.

That was particularly true on his most recent outing, when he finished a 5 length 4^th to Elgin in the Grade 2 Kingwell hurdle at Wincanton.

The winner ran fifth in the Champion hurdle on Tuesday – a few places ahead of the Kingwell runner up, Ch’Tbello.
Whilst Call me Lord, who was third in that race, subsequently finished a very close second in Saturdays Imperial Cup.

In short, it’s very strong form.

It’s therefore somewhat surprising that the handicapper chose not to adjust Flying Tigers mark – and he gets to run off 140 – just 6lb higher than the mark he won last seasons Fred Winter from.
The potential issue with him is the ground – as he would prefer a quick surface.

He may get way with it – but he may not. The betting will likely tell us, pre-race !

The other one I want on side, is Smaoineamh Ailann.

She is trained by Robert Walford and looks to have been layed out for the race.

When she won at the course in December, he described her as the quickest horse he has at home.

It’s maybe therefore not too surprising that he has chosen to target her at a valuable race, such as this.

She has plenty to prove – and again the ground may not be ideal – but at a big price, I think she is worth a small risk.

Outside of these 2, then the Mullins/Elliott battalions do look the most likely.
That said, choosing which one of them, is a task in itself !

Duca de Thaix is probably the one I’d be most fearful of.

At bigger prices, then A Hares Breath will almost certainly run his race – and may be capable of  getting placed: Whilst Le Richebourg, looks quite interesting for Joseph O’Brien…

2:50 This looks like a high class renewal of this race, which is a shame, as I could have really fancied Dortmund Park !

In truth, I’m pleased that I managed to tip him before Gordon Elliott started banging in the winners yesterday afternoon – as I reckon his successes shaved a few points off the price of most of his runners today !

Dortmund Park really caught my eye on his penultimate run at Thurles, when he absolutely hacked up.

You won’t see racing in worse conditions – it was quite literally a bog – but he seemed to absolutely relish it.

Whilst everything else in the race was struggling to put one leg in front of another, he cruised round – and then sprinted clear (relatively speaking  !).

On the back of that run, he was made second favourite for a Grade 1 event at the Dublin racing festival – but that race took place only 12 days after the Thurles race and I suspect it came too soon.

Not that he ran badly – he just didn’t run as well as I felt him capable…
Ofcourse, part of that might have been down to the conditions, which were nowhere near as bad: whilst it is also interesting to see that he’s had a wind op in the interim.

In truth, he’s a selection based on gut feel – and on the assumption that the ground will be desperate.

This race can turn into a war – and from what I saw at Thurles, if that happens, it will suit Dortmund Park admirably !

If conditions aren’t quite that bad, then I’ve less idea over what will win !

Nicky Henderson saddles 3 very promising horses in Santini, Chef des Obeaux and OK Corral – and all 3 have sufficient ability to go close.

Santini is probably the best of the 3 – but he is also the least experienced and that could catch him out.

Chris’s Dream is the one I will fear most if conditions are really bad.

He hacked up on desperate ground at Clonmel last time – and it’s impossible to know just how good he might be.

Poetic Rhythm and Callet Mad are both useful animals – but I don’t think they will beat Dortmund Park or Chris’s Dream, if it is heavy: or the Henderson trio, if it isn’t.

And whilst Tower Bridge did the service a massive favour when winning at 40/1 last time, I’ll be a little surprised if he can repeat the dose today (though I won’t begrudge him it, if he does !).

It’s crazy to see the likes of Paisley Park and Mulcahys Hill at 33/1+ - but this really is a very strong race, and the reality is, talented as they are, they probably won’t be good enough to feature.

3:30 Even in the absence of reigning champion, Sizing John, a really strong field will go to post for the Gold Cup.

The stand out horse, is Might Bite: however a combination of his suspect temperament and potentially unsuitable ground, make him look vulnerable.

At this level, even the best need most things in their favour – and one or two of his boxes are unticked !

If he does win, it will be testament to his enormous ability (of which there is little doubt) – but I think he warrants being taken on…

There are quite a few who you could legitimately oppose him with – but I’ve gone for a couple of ‘value’ options (as is generally my want !).

The first of them, is Road to Respect.

I’ve honestly lost count of the number of times that I’ve nearly tipped him this season !

I nearly tipped him ante-post for the Christmas chase at Leopardstown – and then nearly tipped him again on the day (when he won !): I also nearly tipped him ante-post for the Gold cup, prior to that win…

Generally, the reason I didn’t was because I was struggling to separate him and his stable/owner companion, Disko.

They are similar horses and I couldn’t be sure which of them would run in which race (and I hate getting the wrong races for ante-post selections !).
As it turned out, Disko picked up an injury and is now out for the season – so things are much simpler…

In terms of the case for Road to Respect, then he is a Grade 1 winner and a previous festival winner, who is already the second highest rated horse in the race – but still has plenty of scope for improvement.
He should also have no issue with trip or ground.

As profiles go, his is pretty good !

The other one I want on side, is American.

His profile isn’t quite so good – but he’s a seriously talented horse.

Unfortunately he’s also very fragile – and will only be risked on soft ground.

He got that last time out, when he finished second to Definitly Red in the Cotswold chase.

Superficially, there is no reason to think he will reverse that form: however, I’m sure American will have derived greater benefit from the run – and briefly, just before the home turn, I thought he was going to win the race (and I’ve learnt to trust those in running feelings !).

I also find it very interesting that connections have seen fit to supplement him for the race.

It’s not a cheap thing to do – and it suggests to me that they have him spot on and are expecting a big run.

He’s got one of the best men in the business on his back – and simply, I don’t think he should be 25/1 for any race that he runs in !

It’s obviously possible to make a case for plenty of the others – but equally, none of them have perfect profiles.

If the jumping of Our Duke holds up, he will be hard to beat: and it’s a similar story with Killultagh Vic.

Native River should run his race, and could easily hit the frame again – but is vulnerable from a win perspective.

Definitly Red is similar – and shouldn’t really be good enough to win, unless conditions get desperate (which I guess they might).

You have to get a bit more creative beyond that point – though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bachasson run well at a big price. He’s looked an improved performer this season.

All this said, I’m happy to side with Road to Respect and American.

The former is the sensible choice, who ticks all the boxes: but the latter has sufficient ability to cause a shock.

4:10 I quite like the look of Virak, in this…

At his peak, he was a borderline Gold Cup horse (rated 159) – and whilst he is now rated 20lb below that level, he’s only 9, so really shouldn’t be in decline.

That said, something clearly hasn’t been right with him, as he’s competing in this race and not the previous one on the card !

I don’t know what his issues have been – but a fair chunk of the ability has looked to be there, on his 2 runs this season – and crucially, he’s always been horse who has relished heavy ground.

In fact, I’ve little doubt that if Paul Nichols had been talking up his chances, rather than those of his stablemate, Wonderful Charm, he would be a much shorter price.

The case for Wonderful Charm is maybe a little more obvious, as he was a close second in this race 12 months ago.

However, he’s a year older than Virak – and doesn’t really want the ground as soft as he’s likely to get today.

I suspect that bigger dangers to Virak will come from the Irish duo Foxrock and Burning Ambition.

The Former was a grade 1 performer, at his peak; whilst the latter is the new kid on the block, who has been very successful in the Pointing field.

Of the others, then last years winner, Pacha du Polder should again run well; as too should Balnaslow (I can still feel the pain from him not getting placed 12 months ago !).

Whilst Grand Vision should make a very good pre-race back to lay in running, as he travels and jumps (and also looks like Desert Orchid !) – but is likely to be found wanting for stamina from the home turn.

4:50 This looks an absolute minefield – and tempting as it was, to get involved with something in the race, I managed to resist !

A little bit like the Fred Winter hurdle on Wednesday it’s difficult to know where to begin.

24 runners – most of whom are unexposed and with plenty of scope for improvement, I’d struggle to form a short list of less than 10.

Gordon Elliott looks to have a particularly strong hand in the race, with at least 3 of his 4 runners appearing likely sorts.

Similarly, Willie Mullins saddles 3 very interesting runners: as does Nicky Henderson.

Outside those 3 stables, then Early Doors for Joseph O’Brien and Melrose Boy for Harry Fry are 2 others that catch the eye.

If forced to narrow it down to 3, I would go with Eliotts Sire du Berlais, Henderson’s Dies de Bieffes and Early Doors.
The first 2 named are ridden by Donal McInerney and James Bowen respectively – and it’s only a matter of time before they both ride festival winners.

I certainly wouldn’t bet a lot of money about one of them starting with this race…

5:30 The final race of the festival, and I am quite struck by how many of the fancied runners would prefer decent ground.

I can see this race being run in desperate condtions, and that just won’t suit the likes of Vaniteux, Theinval, Valdez – or last years winner, Rock The World.

North Hill Harvey will have no issue with it though.

Conditions were pretty bad, when he won the Greatwood over hurdles, last season – and also when he won over fences at the course, back in November.

That was only a 3 horse race – but he won it very well: whilst his form with the top class novice, Sceau Royale, stands up to the closest scrutiny.

He’s also unbeaten at Cheltenham – with 4 wins from 4 runs – which is impressive by anyones standards.

I’ve little doubt that he’s been targeted at this race by the Skeltons – and the application of first time cheek pieces looks a calculated move.

Touch wood, he jumps very well for a novice – and he looks a worthy favourite…

That said, I suspect he will need to be on his ‘A’ game if he is to get the better of Top Gamble.

He’s arguably been a little disappointing this season – but his handicap mark has dropped as a consequence.

Considering he finished a close up 4^th in the Champion chase just 12 months ago, on unsuitably quick ground, he looks very handicapped on a mark of 149.
Again, cheek pieces are applied for the first time – and I can understand that.

He also gets Davy Russell back in the saddle – and that looks just as significant.

Davy has only ridden the horse 4 times previously – but that included his 3 best runs.

Davy’s not in bad form himself, either !

There are a few dangers in the race: the likes of Le Prezien (if his jumping holds up) and Doitforthevillage (if he’s good enough) – but I do think that North Hill Harvey and Top Gamble, give us a particularly strong hand in this race.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 1:30 Apples Shakira 0.5pt win 16/1 (AP)

Chel 1:30 Farclas 0.5pt win 20/1 (AP)

Chel 2:10 Flying Tiger 0.5pt win 16/1 (AP)

Chel 2:10 Smaoineamh Ailann 0.5pt win 20/1

Chel 2:50 Dortmund Park 0.5pt win 25/1

Chel 3:30 American 0.5pt win 25/1 (AP)

Chel 3:30 Road to Respect 0.5pt win 12/1

Chel 4:10 Virak 1pt win 12/1 (AP)

Chel 5:30 North Hill Harvey 1pt win 8/1 (AP)

Chel 5:30 Top Gamble 0.5pt EW 16/1