Daily write-up - Feb 25th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: and Fontwell and Southwell in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland.

Fontwell passed its early morning inspection, so Chris and Francis will be able to enjoy a day at the races.

The highlight of their afternoon will undoubtedly be the National Spirit hurdle - and specifically, the appearance of TVB hero, Lil Rockerfeller !

That aside however, there isn’t a great deal of interest on the card (sorry guys !).

In fairness, it’s still a bit better that the one served up at Southwell – which really is low grade fare…

The best racing on the day (aside from the National Spirit), takes place at Naas – though tipping/betting in Ireland on all but the biggest days, is never easy (certainly if you want to retain accounts !).

Unsurprisingly, there are no tips on the days – though there are a few horses to keep an eye on (and possibly support financially, if conditions allow).

Fontwell

2:50 There aren’t many races of interest the Fontwell card – but this isn’t a bad one…

The Last But One won well on his chasing debut at Musselburgh 3 weeks ago – and it’s a bit surprising that he was only raised 4lb for that win.

He sets a decent standard for this race – but also faces a few interesting rivals…

Brown Bear is the one I’m most attracted to – even though he comes with risks.

He won a strong (for the grade) handicap hurdle race at Ascot in November, before disappointing slightly at Towcester, next time.

He was switched back to fences at Fontwell on Boxing day – but bled and was pulled up.

That makes him risky – but he’s been given 2 months to recover and runs off the same mark today, as when successful at Ascot.

Assuming the bleeding doesn’t recur, then he is clearly handicapped to be competitive…

Stoical Patient is the third one of interest – though she is edging up the handicap.

Fergal Mael Duin on the other hand, is edging down the handicap - but that’s because he’s been performing poorly !

Oakidoaki and Cap Horner can be given half chances – but I think this race is likely to go to either The Last But One or Brown Bear.

At around 5/1, the latter is possibly worth a small risk.

3:20 I’d love to be all over TVB favourite, Lil Rockerfeller in this – but I’m not…

Possibly that’s partly because I wish he wasn’t running !

I have tipped him ante-post for the Stayers hurdle – and whilst I don’t hold out a huge amount of hope for that bet (it looks like being a particularly strong renewal), his chances are unlikely to be helped by him having a hard race today.

If I put that angle out of my mind (!), then I still think he has got a job on to win today…

He’s looked a tough ride this season (even tougher than previous seasons !) – and it’s not surprising that blinkers are applied this afternoon.

If they don’t perk him up, then over a trip which is now a minimum, and on relatively quick ground, he won’t be quick enough to fend off Old Guard.

The betting says that Old Guard and Air Horse One are his 2 main dangers – but I am far more fearful of the former.

On handicap ratings – and form – there should be little between the two.

However, whereas Paul Nichols was in sparkling form yesterday, Harry Fry is struggling to find winners.

My feeling is that the blinkers will light up Lil Rockerfeller – and Trevor Whelan will kick for home a fair way out.
However, I suspect that Old Guard will just track him and pounce between the final 2 flights.

The other 5 runners all have quite a bit to find, so maybe an Old Guard/Lil Rockerfeller forecast, is the best way to play the race (possibly reversed, just in case Rocky refuses to be headed !!)…

Southwell

2:30 There is precious little of interest on the Southwell card – but there is an eye catcher running in this…

Run Don’t Hide caught my eye on his penultimate outing at Wincanton, when staying on for third place.

I felt he might be able to build on that run  - and maybe take a similar low grade race – though I could have been wrong !

Certainly, he performed poorly on his only subsequent outing at Huntingdon – and based on that run, I couldn’t be remotely interested in him !

He switches to fences today – which may elicit some improvement.

Also, it’s not the strongest of races, so he may be capable of running into a place.
He’s not one I could really recommend siding with – but at 20/1 in a weak event, I may have a tiny EW bet on him, just in case !!

Naas

2:40 If the price has been there, I might have been tempted to take a small chance and tip Coeur Joyeux in this…

He won a decent race at Punchestown in November – and then ran well in an ultra competitive race at the Dublin racing festival at the beginning of this month.

He only finished sixth in the that race, behind Last Goodbye (and Vieux Morvan !) – but it was still a very good run, in the context of this race.

He holds Sutton Manor on that run – so it’s difficult to understand why that one is shorter in the betting for todays race: and whilst Barry Geraghty rides Fitzhenry, that doesn’t necessarily means he’s JPs number 1, as Coeur Joyeux is always ridden by Luke Dempsey…

At the end of the day, it comes down to price (as always !).
Couer Joyeux was 6/1 early this morning – which was acceptable: however, he’s 9/2 now – and that’s just a little too short.

If he drifts however…

3:10 Speak Easy is the one I like in this – but he’s another one who has been well backed this morning…

He was an impressive winner of a novice hurdle at Navan, early in December – and on that back of that, was allowed to take his chance in a Grade 1 at Naas, early in January.
He disappointed in that race, but could easily bounce back today.

That said, this is a tough race to fathom and most of the runners can be given a chance.

Certainly I would want more than the 3/1 currently on offer about Speak Easy, to consider siding with him…

3:45 It’s difficult to look beyond Gordon Elliots 2 runners in this: Doctor Pheonix and Ball D’Arc…

Doctor Phoenix is greatly favoured by race conditions.

He receives 9lb from Ball D’Arc – even though he is officially rated just 2lb inferior.

On a pure pounds and lengths basis, he should win.

And he may just do that – but as a 10 year old, with plenty of miles on the clock – and on the back of a few hard races this season, he’s not got any scope for improvement.

Ball D’Arc is far less exposed and it’s certainly not impossible, that he will come out on top.

That said, at 11/8 Doctor Pheonix; 2/1 Ball D’Arc, it’s a race I will just be watching…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon !

TVB.

Mentions

Font 2:50 Brown Bear (O )

Font 3:20 Old Guard (O )

Sthw 2:30 Run Don’t Hide (S )

Naas 2:40 Coeur Joyeux (P )

Naas 3:10 Speak Easy (P )