Daily write-up - Mar 24th

There are just the 3 NH meetings today: at Newbury and Bangor in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

It’s amazing to think that it’s only just over a week, since the Cheltenham festival.

Watching and studying the racing yesterday, everything felt completely different – it was almost as if a new season had begun..!

I guess in part, that was down to the quicker ground – though overnight rain at Newbury is likely to have sorted that out (some things never change !)

I certainly felt that I needed to adjust my perspective – and needless to say, that makes me a little nervous about getting too carried away with tips !

In truth, that was never really a danger.

Opportunities away from Newbury are minimal – and even at Newbury, there are only 3 or 4 races, which lend themselves to tipping.

As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just a couple of tips on the day – and I suspect it will be similar story tomorrow.

Just a quick mention, for those of you who don’t frequent the forum, for the latest TVB Day at the Races…

It will take place 2 weeks today – Saturday April 7^th – at Stratford.

There are around 5 Definites, so far – and the more the merrier !

It would certainly be nice to see a few new faces  in attendance…

If you are interested, please post accordingly on the thread, so I’ve got an idea of numbers…

Anyway, on to today – and the rationale for the tips – plus my thoughts on a few of the other races…

Newbury

2:05 This looks a very open race and it won’t surprise me too much, whatever wins…

Amore Alato has been installed favourite on his first run for Dan Skelton – and there can be little doubt that he is well handicapped, if he recovers the best of his old form.

However, I’m not sure that Newbury will particularly suit him – and Dan Skelton has been struggling for form, for a little while.

On balance, I think he is worth opposing…

Coologue is the other one that really interests me - and he is sufficiently big price to take a risk.

Like Amore Alato, he is potentially very well handicapped, running from a mark 7lb lower than when successful on his debut, last season.

He’s a horse who tends to run best fresh, so the fact he’s been off the track for nearly 2 months, is a positive.

What isn’t quite so positive, is how he ran last time – which was very disappointingly !

However, he’s been given a wind op since then – and if that has the desired effect, he could prove hard to catch.

He’s never won at Newbury – but it’s a track that should suit him well.

When on form, he’s an aggressive front runner – and Newbury lends itself well to those tactics.

I find it very interesting to see that Aidan Coleman is in the saddle today – despite the fact that Charlie Longsdons stable jockey, Johnny Burke, is at the track.

Coleman has a very good record for Longsdon, so his booking could be significant.

I suspect we’ll know our fate pre-race, as if the horse is going to run well, I would expect it to be well backed.

Of the others, then Thomas Patrick is the solid option in the race – particularly with his trainer, Tom Lacey, in such good form.

I can also see an argument for Bells N Banjos – though like Coologue, he will need to bounce back to form after a couple of disappointing runs.

2:40 It’s hard to look beyond Oistrakh Le Noir in this – but equally, hard to back him, at 6/4…

In truth, he has the potential to be much better than his mark – but it is just potential at the moment and that makes his price tight enough.

That said, non of his rivals boast particularly strong form, so I have a feeling that he won’t need to be world beater, in order to come home in front.

He has very strong connections – and was one of the market leaders for last weeks Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, but didn’t make the cut.

If he was going to go close in that race, then he is likely to win this comfortably…

Of his rivals, then Nigh or Never is possibly the most interesting – particularly as there were hints yesterday, that Rebecca Curtis might be returning to form.

However, a NR this morning means that just 7 runners will go to post – so even each way options are limited.

All in all, a watching race, I think…

3:15 Despite this looking a very competitive race, I’m quite keen on Oscar Rose.

She has already run against many of todays rivals, at some point in the past 12 months, and is handicapped to beat them all.

She finished 4 lengths in front of Petticoat Lane in a bumper at Aintree last season – and is 3lb better of with her today.

On her hurdling debut at Chepstow is October, she was beaten by If You Say Run, Just A Thought and Roksana – but is sufficiently better off at the weights with all 3 today, to suggest she should come out on top.

She should also be able to reverse her Ludlow defeat by Sunshade in Novemebr, on over stone better terms:

Whilst she had finished ahead of Kalahari Queen and Black Tulip – and is weight to confirm the form with both of them.

In short, from a pure handicapping perspective, she is the most likely winner.

More than that however, she has looked unlucky not to finish closer in quite a few (most !) of her races…

Last time out, a slipped saddle cost her dear; whilst the time before, she was stuck in traffic at Doncaster.

Even the Chepstow run, saw her staying on is really taking fashion, when it was all too late.

I guess that todays big field might not help – but Newbury is a very fair course with a particularly long straight, so hopefully Paddy Brennan will be able to ensure she can do herself justice.

One I am a little wary of, is Jet Set.

She’s trained by Charlie Longsdon and he has an excellent record in the race.

She is also relatively unexposed.

If I could be sure that 16 would go to post (ie. 4 places) then I would tip her EW at 20/1.

However, there is a strong possibility that there will be a withdrawal at some point, ad that will mess up place terms.

Maybe keep an eye on things and get involved with her, close to the off, if circumstances are right.

3:50 I was quite keen on Sametegal in this - but he was withdrawn, early this morning.
In his absence, Virgilio looked the most likely winner – but he was taken out of the race a couple of hours later.

Therefore, we now have a contest with no obvious winner !

I certainly wouldn’t be keen to side with Seeyouatmidnight, as he’s unlikely to be given a hard race, as this is primarily his prep for the Grand National.
Equally, Kayf Adventure makes limited appeal, having run in a tough race at the Cheltenham festival, just over a week ago…

The rain could well have spoilt the ground for both Cold March and Plaisir D’Amour (though if it isn’t too soft, I suspect one of them will win): whilst generally, I’m inclined to oppose northern raiders at southern tracks (so that eliminates Pain Au Chocolat).

As a consequence, I got very close to tipping outsiders Dusky Lark and Tiquer (to minimum stakes).

Neither has rock solid credentials – but both can be given a chance in what looks a winnable race…

Certainly, the application of first time cheek pieces on the former: and a wind op for the latter, nearly pushed me over the edge: however, neither one is really sufficiently well handicapped to win a race of this nature (plus Tiquer could be running out of his grade).

On balance then, tempting as it was, I decided just to make it a watching race…

5:35 This is another tight race, in which a chance can be given to most of the runners…

If forced, I would side with Mystifiable – as I think he can win from his current mark.

However, I’m not completely convinced by the drop back to 2 miles: whilst he would prefer good ground (though I guess the 2 could cancel each other out – stamina wise).

Imperial Presence is the other one of particular interest – particularly as he won the corresponding race 12 months ago, from a mark just 1lb lower.

That said, he’s been absent since May and Philip Hobbs has been in poor form this season – so I’d be disinclined to get too heavily involved at a price of 3/1.

Get Rhythm definitely has a chance: as too, has Big Jim.

Exmoor Mist is likely to look as if he has a chance – but probably won’t get home.

And whilst Ut Majeur Aulmes and Rock on Rocky are both out of form – they are well enough handicapped to go close, if they happened to bounce back…

As is so often the case, I suspect this is a race where the market will reveal the winner, close to the off.
I’m just not sure which one it will be !

Bangor

2:15 Rons Dream is handicapped to win this – provided the ground is soft enough and her jumping stands the test.

Her mark of 130 enables her to sneak into the race – and she really should be a bit too classy for the rivals she faces today.

She’s won, over hurdles, off a higher mark – and whilst she’s yet to prove herself quite as good over fences, I don’t see any reason why that shouldn’t be the case.

Her task is made easier this afternoon, by the fact that non of her rivals is particular progressive.

Sparkling River could prove to be the best of them – but whilst she is a really honest mare, she is also a relatively limited one…

I think this is Rons Dreams race to lose – and arguably she is not a bad bet at 3/1.

3:25 I expected Rosmuc Relay to be put in very short for this (around 5/2) – and if that had been the case, I might have looked to take him on.

However, he’s weak in the market – and is only just favourite.

I find that a bit surprising, as he’s got the kind of profile that normally gets over-bet (progressive novice, stepping up in trip for his handicap debut).

Carspindle is very strong against him in the market – and certainly the form of her last time out win at Chepstow, looks good n the context of todays race.

I would expect her to run a big race.

I would be less adamant that King of Fashion will run a big race – though he is the one who I would have tipped, if I had got involved in the race.

He was sent off at just 7/1 on his most recent outing, in a 17 runner class 1 handicap at Sandown.

That was on his debut for Kerry Lee – and he never featured - but clearly, some one expected him to go close.

He will find todays contest far easier – and a wind op in the interim, suggests he may have had a breathing issue.

He’s undoubtedly risky – but at the right price, he could be worth a chance.

I’m not sure exactly what the price should be (he’s a 7/1 shot).

I had hoped that Rosmuc Relay would skew the market – but that’s not happened.
As a consequence, I’ll just be watching him – but if he does drift to double figures, I’m likely to get involved.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Newb 2:05 Coologue 0.5pt win 14/1

Newb 3:15 Oscar Rose 1pt win 7/1

Mentions

Newb 2:40 Ostrakh le Noir (P )

Newb 3:15 Jet Set (C )

Newb 3:50 Tiquer & Dusky Lark (S )

Newb 5:35 Mystifiable (C )

Bang 2:15 Rons Dream (C )

Bang 3:25 King of Fashion (S )