Day
3 of the Cheltenham festival.
There has been significant overnight rain – and on ground
which was already ‘soft’, we are again likely to be looking at ‘heavy’, by the
start of the first race.
On
the plus side, the action switches to the New course this afternoon – so the
horses will be running on previously unused ground.
I
wouldn’t be optimistic about conditions for tomorrow though !
So
far, things haven’t gone well from a tipping perspective – though in my defence,
there haven’t been that many races on the first 2 days, which I felt were set up
for tipping in.
Things are a little better today – and they look even
better again tomorrow.
Remember, it’s a meeting of 2 halves ;)
In
terms of todays tips, then I’ve ended up with 7 across 5 races.
I’ve
changed tactics slightly, with a couple EW – and even one at a single figure
price !
Rest
assured, it’s not an attempt on my behalf, to force anything (as is illustrated
by my stance in the final race on the card) - it’s more a case of showing a bit
of flexibility to respond to the opportunities on offer.
Anyway, enough of the pre-amble !
Here’s the rational for the tips – plus my other thoughts
on the day…
Cheltenham
1:30 This is a pretty open looking race, in which
a case can be made for most of the runners.
The
market is headed by Invitation Only – and whilst he definitely has a chance, he
looks too short in the betting at 3/1.
Similarly, Terrefort has a chance, but there isn’t much
appeal in his price, which is just a point bigger.
Benetar could be of interest at around 8/1 – though I
wonder if he’s quite got the class to win a race of this stature: and whilst
Finians Oscar looked all class last year, he’s been a massive disappointment
this season and now has a lot to prove.
On better ground, Modus would definitely have been of interest – but he may not appreciate the very soft conditions.
On better ground, Modus would definitely have been of interest – but he may not appreciate the very soft conditions.
That’s certainly not the case with Shattered Love – as
she relishes heavy ground.
She’s won 4 of her 5 chasing starts this season,
culminating in a last time out win in a Grade 1 chase at Leopardstown, over
Christmas.
She
took advantage of the falls of Monalee and Rathvinden that day, but still did
well to hold off Jury Duty.
She
is an improving mare, who likes to race prominently and is generally a sound
jumper.
She
also gets a 7lb sex allowance from all of her rivals (bar the 5 year old
Terrefort) – and in a tight race, that could prove crucial.
I
would certainly expect her to run a big race – the question is whether she will
be good enough to win.
That’s hard to say with confidence – but I do think that
she represents a bit of value at around 9/1.
It’s
also possible to argue that Snow Falcon and Kemboy represent a bit of value – as
both have a chance.
However, if this does turn into a war (which is quite
possible), then I want be with Shattered Love, as her stamina and sound jumping
could prove decisive.
2:10 This is not a race which I have a strong view
on.
My
feeling is that it will probably be won by one of the Irish horses that look to
have been layed out for it – but I don’t know which one…
Glenloe, Sort it Out, Delta Work and A Great View all
have the right kind of profile – but they have also been well found in the
betting.
Of
the English challengers, then Louis’ Vac Pouch and Forza Milan are the 2 who
appear to have been specifically targeted at the race – but again, the market is
wise to them.
Beyond that, it looks a bit of a lottery…
Connetable and Dadsintrouble are a couple who are
moderately interesting, at big prices: whilst, as I mentioned on the forum, Wait
for Me should make a decent pre-race back to lay in-running (as he travels
strongly).
In
truth, the best thing about the race, is probably a quote I read from Evan
Williams, concerning his runner, Prime Venture. He said:
The horse went up 12lb for winning a bad race at Ffos Las
and, as a relatively exposed handicapper, there was no way he'd improved by that
much. There's nowhere else to go though, so he's at Cheltenham for a day
out.’
Well, at least that’s one that can be crossed off the
list !!
All
in all, probably a race best watched…
2:50 There is a numerically disappointing turn out
for this – but I think there’s a good bet in it…
Only
6 will go to post – and 3 of them are likely to have a real issue with the
ground.
Cloudy Dream, Sub Lieutenant and Balco des Flos would all
prefer much better ground than they are going to get.
At
Championship level, then generally speaking a horse needs most things in its
favour, if it is going to win.
Consequently, that leaves 3 to focus on: Un de Sceaux,
Cue Card and Frodon.
Clearly Un de Sceaux is the one to beat.
He
will have no issue with the ground and he won the corresponding race 12 months
ago. However, it was noticeable that he only just made it up the hill that day –
and the ground was a fair bit quicker than it will be today.
He
probably only just has sufficient stamina to last the trip – and with Ruby
unable to ride him – Paul Townend will need to get things spot on.
Cue
Card is another past winner of this race – and he certainly won’t lack for
stamina, no matter how heavy the going !
However, he’s now 12 – and had a very hard race at Ascot
just over 3 weeks ago.
He
may have recovered – but I’m not sure I would want to bet on it.
Consequently, Frodon is the one to be interested
in…
He’s
got a few pounds to find with the 2 principals on official ratings - but is only
6 and is still improving.
He
will also relish the soft ground – and whilst he finished well behind Cue Card
at Ascot last time, I suspect he’s a much better horse at Cheltenham.
Certainly, he was unbelievably good, when winning at the
course in January.
He
destroyed Shantou Flyer and Coo Star Sivola that day – and those 2 fought out
the finish to the Ultima on Tuesday.
I’ve
little doubt that Frodon was flattered by that run, because he barely put a foot
wrong - however, it did show what he is capable of, if everything drops
right.
And
I think there’s a distinct possibility that everything will drop right for him
today – and if it does, then he has to go very close.
Against 2 such talented opponents, I think it makes sense
to back him EW – but with reasons why they both could under-perform, a victory
for Frodon is certainly not out of the question.
3:30 TVB favourite, Lil Rockerfeller, runs in this
and will be attempting to avenge his agonising defeat of 12 months ago (right up
there in the top 5 most painful defeats incurred by TVB tips – and it’s quite a
list, I can tell you !).
At
the start of the season, I felt he had a real chance of going one better – and I
tipped him ante-post.
However, he’s looked a little battle weary in a few of
his races this season – and the very soft ground is likely to be the final
nail.
I suspect his chance for success, passed 12 months ago…
I suspect his chance for success, passed 12 months ago…
In
truth, this is a much hotter renewal than last years.
I’m
not sure quite what has happened – but a host of serious challengers have sprung
up during the season – and this has turned into a really competitive
race.
Sam
Spinner heads the market – and on his favoured heavy ground, he looks sure to
run well.
However, whether he’ll be able to grind some very
talented horses into submission, is debatable.
He’s
also not likely to be helped by the presence of Donnas Diamond.
He
likes to race prominently and should ensure that Sam Spinner doesn’t get a
freebie on the front end.
I
have a feeling that the two of them will just set things up for a closer – the
question is which one…
There are plenty of talented horses in the race, but I
suspect the most talented, is Yanworth.
He
was actually sent off 2/1 favourite for last years Champion hurdle – but he
didn’t have the pace to get involved, over the minimum trip.
He
was stepped up to 3 miles for his next run at Aintree – and a battling victory
over Supersundae, showed that he did have the stamina.
He
is also able to cope with very heavy ground, as his massively impressive win on
Trials day, 2 years ago showed…
I
expect Barry Geraghty to give him a quiet waiting ride – and then look to pounce
coming to the last.
The
race isn’t going to be pretty – but Yanworth has guts as well as class – and
hopefully they will see him home in front.
As
for the others, then Supersundaes chances may have been undone by the rain;
whilst you have to feel that Unowhatimenaharry, like Lil Rockerfeller, had his
best chance 12 months ago.
Bacardys has possibilities – if he gets home: as does The
New One.
L’Ami Serge could certainly get placed – though it’s
harder to see him winning; and I would say the same about Colins Sister, who can
be backed at huge odds.
In
fact I did consider tipping her, as her running style could see her picking off
rivals close home – as she will absolutely relish conditions.
I’m
just not sure that she’s quite classy enough, in such a strong
contest.
If
you can get 50/1 tho – and 4 places, then she is definitely worth a speculative
few quid.
4:10 I was disappointed to see that Vieux Morvan
wasn’t declared for this race.
I
felt he would have had a really good chance – but clearly, his connections
weren’t so convinced…
I
guess I could have switched to Last Goodbye in his absence – as he comfortably
beat Vieux Morvan when the pair met at Leopardstown last month.
However, Last Goodbye was hit hard by the handicapper for
that win – and his jumping can be a little suspect.
In
short, I don’t fancy his chances as much as I did those of Vieux
Morvan.
I do
fancy the chances of Kings Odyssey though – particularly at the prices available
early yesterday !
In
truth, the case for him is quite straightforward, so I don’t understand why he
was ever trading at 33/1.
He
was hugely impressive winner over todays course and distance, 2 years ago – and
off the same mark he runs from today.
That
was also in very heavy ground – and he ploughed through it in a manner which
suggested he was a horse going places.
That
hasn’t really happened yet – but he’s hinted on more than one occasion that the
ability remains.
In
fact, he ran really well on his most recent outing, when third over today
courses and distance – to Frodon !
He
split Shantou Flyer and Coo Star Sivola in that race – and as I said earlier,
that form was franked in no uncertain terms on Tuesday.
I
can’t help but feel that Kings Odyssey has a race like this in him – and if
that’s the case, then under perfect conditions, today is likely to be the
day.
Ofcourse with 24 runners, you need a bit of luck – and
there is always the possibility that you might bump into a horse who is thrown
in.
The
most likely candidates for that are Kings Socks, The Storyteller and
Movewiththetimes.
Certainly it would be no surprise if one of them proved
to be well ahead of its mark.
I
therefore think it is worth backing Kings Odyssey EW – and there is (was !)
sufficient juice in the price, to do just that.
Aside from those mentioned, there is nothing else in the
race that really grabs me.
I
find it interesting that connections have chosen to drop Go Conquer in trip –
though I’m not completely sure that it’s a good move.
Whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see Willie Boy run
well: or indeed, Mercian Prince – but in terms of tips, there’s only one horse
that I’m interested in – and that’s Kings Odyssey !
4:50 This is the least attractive betting race of
the day, by some margin…
At
the start of the week, Willie Mullins said that Laurina was his best chance of a
winner.
So
far, he’s registered 5 success: it’s highly likely that she will make it 6 (or
maybe 7 or 8 – depending on how the earlier races have gone !).
She’s been deeply impressive on her 2 runs in Ireland –
both on heavy ground. Her form also has substance to it, so she’s going to take
a lot of beating…
Marias Benefit is the clear second best in the
race.
She’s been a revelation this season, winning 5 on the
bounce.
Her
penultimate run in the soft at Taunton, suggests she will handle todays
conditions – though her head strong style – and Cheltenham hill, mean that she
is likely to be vulnerable, after the last.
I’ve
little doubt that she’ll run her race – but she’s just likely to provide a
target for Luarina to aim at…
Cap
Soleil is third in the betting – and most likely to finish third in the
race.
Her
form isn’t outstanding – but she’s put in a few performances which suggest she’s
got real talent – and she is highly rated by her connections.
The
only other one worthy of a mention, is Angels Antics.
Her
jumping can be poor – and she may find everything happening too quickly
(particularly if Marias Benefit applies a lot of pressure).
However, she will relish the ground – and if she’s still
in contention coming down the hill, nothing will come up it better !
She’s certainly one to consider in-running – provided
she’s still within hailing distance at half way !!
5:30 A little bit like the 2 handicaps on the
opening day, I have a something of a dilemma in this race…
I
think that Mall Dini and Squouateur are the most likely winners – but it’s 11/2
the pair, and in a 22 runner handicap, that’s too short…
More
than that, neither one really has the form to warrant being the price they are -
it’s all about what they could be.
It
was a similar situation with both horses 12 months ago – and neither delivered
then.
Hopefully it will be the same story this afternoon
!
With
them out of the race (!), it’s a much easier to solve..!
Cleary an ability to cope with desperate conditions is
going to be a pre-requisite - and Band of Blood will have no issue in that
respect.
The
ground couldn’t have been worse when he won on his penultimate run at Exeter –
and the fact that he was able to follow up 10 days later at Doncaster on much
quicker ground, showed that he was over the issued which has caused him to have
2 years off the track.
Ofcourse he has risen in the handicap for those 2 wins –
but he’s still only rated 133, and I’m sure he’s a better horse than
that.
He’s
got a very good jockey in James King – and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go
close.
The
other one I want on side, is Wild West Wind.
He
was a good winner on heavy ground at Chepstow on his seasonal debut, before
falling next time in the Welsh National.
On
his most recent run, he cantered in to the lead, having jumped the third last at
Haydock - but then stopped to nothing.
In a
way, that was a little disconcerting – but that race was over an extra half mile
– and however bad conditions are today, they won’t be as bad as they were at
Haydock !
He
certainly got home fine, on his seasonal debut - and hopefully that will be the
case again today.
Tom
Georges horses have been running really well all week – and I expect Wild West
Wind to do the same.
Of
the others, then The Young Master is handicapped to win – but a big revival
would be required and the ground has gone against him.
Whilst Final Nudge is the other one I considered tipping.
However I was a little disappointed with his effort last time and it’s unusual
for horses to bounce back from poor runs, mid season.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
TVB.
Tips
Chel
1:30 Shattered Love 1pt win 9/1
Chel
2:50 Frodon 0.5pt EW 10/1
Chel
3:30 Lil Rockerfeller 0.5pt win 25/1 (AP)
Chel
3:30 Yanworth 1pt win 6/1
Chel
4:10 Kings Odyssey 0.5pt EW 33/1
Chel
5:30 Band of Blood 0.5pt win 16/1 (AP)
Chel
5:30 Wild West Wind 0.5pt win 20/1
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