Daily write-up - Mar 13th (Cheltenham Day 1)

It’s finally arrived: Day 1 of the Cheltenham festival.

And, unbelievably, the meeting is going to open on heavy ground.

Apparently the last time that happened was in 1982 – which stretches even my memory !

Unfortunately, heavy ground is not what I anticipated when I issued my early ante-post tips – and whilst a pair of them will be running today, their chances have been severely compromised by the weather.

On the flip side, I realised a couple of weeks ago, that the ground could end up soft – and the ante-post tips issued from that point onwards are in a much better position…

Ofcourse, what they look like as tips will have no bearing on how they run – but I think we’d all prefer to be on a horse which the market now likes the chances of  - particularly if we’ve managed to secure a significantly bigger price !

In terms of the tips that I’ve issued – both for today and for the rest of the week – then I’ve adopted a similar strategy to the one I used last season (and which worked well).

I’ve simply picked off horses which I feel have a chance – at odds which I think under-estimate their chance.

I’ve deliberately kept stakes small – and stuck to win only – because that enables me to tip multiple horses in a race (which I find is a better tactic).

Obviously, with hindsight, I wish I’d staked a bit more on a few of the ones that I issued early – but that’s bound to happen if I am picking the ‘right’ horses…

Anyway, I’ve ended up with 10 tips on the day, spread across 6 races.

Here’s the rationale for the tips – plus my general thoughts on all 7 races on day 1…

Cheltenham

1:30 Getabird has been installed a short priced favourite for the meeting opener – and whilst he is the most likely winner, I think he’s too short at 15/8.

He’s clearly got a lot of talent - and the ground will suit him, over the minimum trip.

However I think he was flattered by his last time out win (where Patrick Mullins stole the race from the front) – and he is unproven left handed.

I’ve also got some reservations about second favourite, Kalashnikov.

I got very close to tipping him for this race, a couple of months back – but his stated preference at the time was the Ballymore (and there was no NRNB !).

He’s since gone on and won the Betfair hurdle – and whilst that is very good form, Both My Tent or Yours and Ballyandy won that race – but were subsequently beaten in this…

I would expect him to be placed – but a little surprised if he is able to win.

The trouble is, trying to figure out what will win…

It’s possible to make a case for the next half dozen or so in the betting, without being overly confident about any of them.

The ground should suit both Summerville Boy and First Flow – though both may not be quite good enough.

Mengli Khan is interesting as Gordon Elliotts sole representative – but he was beaten last time by Getabird – and would prefer better ground.

Claimantakinforgan could have a chance – though I would have expected him to be much stronger in the betting, if Nicky Henderson really thought he was up to winning…

Almost by process of elimination, I arrive at Paloma Blue.

He was an eye catcher last time out, in the Grade 1 Delloite novice hurdle at the Dublin Festival.

He was well beaten by Samcro that day – but I suspect he will show himself tomorrow, to be an exceptional novice.

Watching a video of that race again, it is impossible not to be impressed by Paloma Blue.

Firstly, he pulls like crazy for the first couple of furlongs; then he seriously clouts a few hurdles – and yet, he’s still able to stride on with Samcro, rounding the home turn.
Admittedly Samcro left him for dead, after jumping the last, but Paloma Blue showed huge ability, just to get into that position.

I would be very hopefully that todays bigger field will enable Davy to settle him better in the early stages: whilst I’m sure Henry De Bromhead will have worked on the jumping.

The ground may be an issue for him – only time will tell on that score – but in terms of natural ability, then I suspect that only Getabird may be able to match him…

In terms of outsiders with a chance: then I could see Simply the Betts running a fair race – and also Debuchet: whilst Dame Rose could be interesting from a back to lay in running perspective, if allowed to bowl along in front.

2:10 In some respects, I’ve done really well with the Arkle.

I tipped Brain Power on Day 1 of the season – at 20/1.

Roll on 4 months and he’s one of only 5 runners in the race – and one of only 4 with a realistic chance.

More than that, whilst he is the fourth favourite, there is a distinct possibility that the race will be run to suit him.

Footpad and Saint Calvados are both confirmed front-runners – so it will be interesting to see how that one unfolds.

Similarly, Petit Mouchoir is a keen going sort – so the race is unlikely to lack for pace !

And that will suit Brain Power perfectly,

My abiding memory of him from last season, is when he appeared out of the gloom at Ascot, cruising behind Fergall, having sat in behind a suicidal pace set by Sternrubin.

Apparently Brain Power has so much ability, he’s the only horse in Nicky Henderson yard, who can live with Altior !

And that probably explains why he’s still a 10/1 shot for this race, when his chasing form suggests he should be at least double that price.

Certainly, Henderson has not lost faith in him – and for that reason, and because I can see the race being run to suit him perfectly, neither have I.

In fact, without the rain, I’d be feeling moderately optimistic – but I do fear that the rain has scuppered his chance.
He wants decent ground – and he’s not going to get it.
Worse than that, his 3 main opponents are all happy/very happy with soft/heavy.

It’s a shame, because I don’t think we’re going to get to find out how good he is.

Instead, I suspect we’ll get it confirmed that Footpad is very good.

Cases can be made for both Petite Mouchoir and Saint Calvados – but Footpad has looked like an exceptional novice.

His jumping has been exemplary in all 3 of his chasing starts to date – and he will have no issue with the ground.

I guess Saint Calvados might try and take him on – but I doubt he’ll be quick enough.

So far Brain Power is concerned, then I fear we’ll have to wait for another day to find out how good he is…

2:50 The first handicap of the week – and I suspect it will be one of the easier ones to crack (it’s all relative !).
For a start, it’s helped by the fact there are only 18 runners – 6 short of the maximum.

And of those 18, I’d be relatively happy to dismiss half…

Unfortunately, that doesn’t include any of the markets principals, and cases can be easily made for Coo Star Sivola, Singlefarmpayment and Vintage Clouds.
That said, I can see no ’value ‘ in their current prices…

In truth, I can only see minimal value in a quote of 12/1 about Rameses de Teille – but as I tipped him when he was 25/1, that’s not an issue !

He’s a progressive novice, who relishes soft ground – and whilst he was beaten last time, he was taking on a horse who is well fancied for tomorrows Grade 1 RSA chance.

I have a slight concern over his stamina – but if it holds out, he potentially has the class to win.

Cogry doesn’t have the same class – but he has real street toughness – and that could prove invaluable this afternoon.

He comfortably beat Singlefarmpayment over todays course and distance, back in October – and there shouldn’t be much between the pair, at the revised weights.
Cogry will have no issue with conditions – and last time out, ran an eye catching trial for today, staying on late over a trip short of his optimum.

His Achilles heal is his jumping – but if that holds up, I would expect him to run a very big race.

The third one I want on side in the race, is Minella Daddy.
It’s hard to describe him as ‘an old friend’, as I’ve tipped him twice in his last 4 runs – and on both occasions, he’s finished second, having traded heavily odds on in-running ! (and that’s not what friends should do !).

However, he has sufficient ability to win a race of this nature off his current mark – even though he also has quirks !
To offset those, he has Sean Bowen on board – and there are few better jockeys riding at the moment.

All 3 of the above have a definite chance of winning – and they have been under-estimated in the betting.
The only other one I considered tipping, is Shantou Flyer.

I can certainly see him running well – but I’ll be a bit surprised if he is sufficiently well handicapped to win.

3:30 The Champion hurdle is the other race on the day, which has gone sadly wrong from an ante-post perspective !

I tipped John Constable, after I felt he had performed very creditably in the International hurdle at the December Cheltenham meeting.

He finished sixth that day to My Tent or Yours – but he travelled really sweetly, on ground that would have been much too soft for him.

My thinking was that on spring ground, in a field of 7 or 8, he could track the pace and use his flat speed to spring a surprise (or at least give Buveur D’air a fright).
Alas, that’s not how it’s panned  out !
The ground today is likely to be just as soft as it was in December - and John Constable will struggle to act on it.

More than that, Willie Mullins has decided to mass his battalions in a seemingly pointless exercise against Buveur D’Aur – making it unlikely that we’ll even be able to nick some place money !
Such is life, I guess…

In terms of what will happen in the race, then Buveur Dair should win – but beyond that, it’s anyones guess !

If Faugheen is back close to his best, then he would give Buveur Dair a real fight – but I doubt that’s the case (the application of cheek pieces strike me as an act of desperation).

Wicklow Brave is definitely capable of placing (though probably not of winning) – if he consents to set off (which isn’t guaranteed !).

Yorkhill once possessed sufficient talent to at least place – but seems to have gone slightly mad !

And whilst the mental state of Melon is a little better – he’s likely to struggle with the ground…

I would expect the same to be true of My Tent or Yours – which means Elgin, Ch’Tbello or Mick Jazz, have all got a chance of finishing in the frame.

That said, it’s impossible to write off the Mullins quartet with absolute confidence, which makes it a near impossible race to play in.

At least it should be an entertaining watch – at quite a few levels !!

4:10 It’s hard to look beyond Apples Jade in this.
She won the corresponding race 12 months ago – and that looked a stronger renewal.

She also looks an improved mare this season - and will have no issue with conditions.

The icing on the cake, is an attitude to die for – in short, I think she will take a bit of beating !

That said, she won’t necessarily win by far.
Certainly she doesn’t have that much in hand of a few of her rivals – even if they aren’t all guaranteed to run their race…

Benie Des Dieux is the second favourite – but she is nearly impossible to assess, having only run over fences, since moving from France.

She’s held in high regard by Willie Mullins – but I’ll be surprised if she’s capable of beating Apples Jade.

Le Bague Au Roi looks a bigger danger – as she seems to be improving.

I’m not convinced that she’s reached Apples Jades level yet though.

In fact, I think Jers Girl is the best bet for the runners up spot.
She was beaten by Le Bague au Roi at Kempton on her most recent outing – and is worse off at the weights today.
However, today’s test of 2m4f in heavy ground will suit her much better than the Kempton test and I think she can reverse the form.

In fact, I had ear marked her for a maximum each way bet – in the ‘without the favourite’ market.

She opened up at 7/1, which was most acceptable; However, that was a very weak market and by the time it had any substance she could only be backed at 9/2.

That means a slight loss, unless she finishes second (or wins).
I guess those of you attracted to the ‘each way bet to nothing’ might still want to get involved – but for official purposes, it will just be a watching race.

4:50 My 2 early tips in this race, have fared rather better in the market than my early tips in the Arkle and Champion hurdle !

I tipped Ms Parfois a couple of weeks ago, when she was a 25/1 shot (33/1 in places) – and you’ll now struggle to beat 7/1: whilst I tipped Shades of Midnight early yesterday, when he was a 331/ shot (40/1 in places) – and 20/1 is now the best price in the village.

That’s more how ante-post betting is supposed to go !

Unfortunately, it doesn’t mean that either one will win – but at least we can bask in the glory of some well placed bets, for a few hours at least !

In terms of the cases for them, then Ms Parfois really is rock solid…

On official ratings, she is the fourth best horse in the race - but her 7lb sex allowance means she is the best in at the weights.

She loves soft ground: has good course form – and threatens to relish the step up to todays 4 mile trip.

It really is tick, tick, tick, with her !

She definitely sets the standard for the race, it’s just a question of whether something will improve past her (which is possible, as she is relatively exposed).

One who could, is Shades of Midnight.
He was an eye catcher last time on his first run for Sandy Thompson.
That was in the Towton chase at Wetherby, and he shot into the lead early in the straight, before weakening after the second last.

Taking the run at face value, a step up in trip seems an odd move (as he appeared to run out of stamina).

However, my feeling was that he didn’t get the best of rides – and we also don’t know how fit he was.

I’m happy to trust Sandy Thompsons judgement that he will stay this far – and if he does, I think he’s got the quality to get involved at the finish.
His current rating leaves him a bit to find with the principals – but he was rated 10lb higher not long ago – and is still a relatively young horse.

He also loves heavy ground – so at the price, is definitely worth a risk.

Of the others, then I suspect that Mossbank is the one of Gordon Elliotts pair, to be most interested in (the ground will suit him better than it will suit Jury Duty): whilst Sizing Tennessee and No Comment are both potential dangers – if they stay the trip.

It’s certainly not a race that you could call with confidence - but I feel that we are on two with a chance, at very good prices, and you can’t ask much more than that..!

5:30 I really did think that I’d found one in this, in the shape of Tycoon Prince – but I’m not quite so sure now..!

I love his profile: he was a graded performer over hurdles last season  - but always looked like an embryonic chaser.

He’s been kept to the minimum trip in his 3 runs over fences – but is stepped up to a more suitable distance for his handicap debut this afternoon.

You really won’t get a more suitable profile for this race.

I also love his connections: Gigginstown, Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy – particularly as Elliott also runs the race favourite, De Plotting Shed (which means that Tycoon Prince is likely to go under the radar, a little).
Even his actually form looks good.
Last time out he fell, when disputing third place with Any Second Now, behind Footpad.
Watching the race, he always looked to have the measure of Any Second Now – yet that one is disputing favouritism for todays race (and the weights are the same).

There are just a couple of things that are putting me off.

Firstly, Gordon  Elliott seems luke warm on his chances.

I’ve learnt over the years to take what trainers say with a pinch of salt – but Elliott tends to play things relatively straight.

Secondly, the horse has not been backed as I would have expected.
Ofcourse, it’s still early days, but I could honestly have seen him disputing favouritism for this race.

Maybe that will come – and if it does, I would suggest topping up.

However, whilst I was tempted to top up on him officially, at the generally available 16/1, I’ve decided to hang fire.
I’ve no issue about having tipped him – I’m just not quite as keen on him as I was earlier !
Instead of increasing the stake on him, I’ve brought Le Rocher on side…

He’s a horse who I’ve always liked – and he’s a horse who will relish todays under foot conditions (I can only imagine what it will be like, come the final race !).
I would have given him half a chance in the grade 1 JLT, so it’s hard not to fancy him in a handicap.
His jumping is a concern, but if he can hold that together, I would expect him to run a very big race.

In terms of the others in the race, then this is a particularly open contest.
I am most fearful of Mister Whitaker – but 8/1 is too short in a race such as this (I would want double figures about any of the runners).

The ground is likely to be key – and if one of the runners who handles it, gets into a jumping rhythm, then they are likely to prove hard to beat.
Lets hope that’s Tycoon Prince or Le Rocher !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 1:30 Paloma Blue 0.5pt win 14/1

Chel 2:10 Brain Power 0.5pt win 20/1 (AP)

Chel 2:50 Ramses de Teille 0.5pt win 25/1 (AP)

Chel 2:50 Cogry 0.5pt win 20/1

Chel 2:50 Minella Daddy 0.5pt win 18/1

Chel 3:30 John Constable 0.5pt EW 50/1 (AP)

Chel 4:50 Ms Parfois 0.5pt win 25/1 (AP)

Chel 4:50 Shades of Midnight 0.5pt win 33/1

Chel 5:30 Tycoon Prince 0.5pt win 20/1 (AP)

Chel 5:30 Le Rocher 0.5pt win 18/1

Mentions

Chel 4:10 Jers Girl w/o Apples Jade (C )