Daily write-up - Mar 25th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Ascot and Carlisle in England – plus Downpatrick in the north of Ireland…

It’s a similar situation to yesterday.
The main meeting at Ascot is quite decent – and there are 3 or 4 races, which lend themselves to betting/tipping.

Things aren’t quite so good at the other 2 meetings however – with only the Ulster National on the Downpatrick card, holding any appeal, from a betting perspective.

Such is life…

There is a slight question mark in my mind regarding the state of the ground at Ascot.
It’s officially soft - but there has been minimal rain during the past 24 hours – and things can dry quickly at this time of year.

I’m hoping it will be on the soft side of good, rather than edging towards heavy.

Time will tell !

I’ve ended up with 3 tips on the day – both at Ascot – with 2 in the same race.

Here is my rationale for them – plus my thoughts on a few of the days other races…

Ascot

2:35 Based purely on form I think Turning Gold is the one to beat in this.

He won the Victor Ludorum hurdle at Haydock, last month - and followed that up with a fine fifth in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.

Somewhat bizarrely he’s been dropped 2lb for that run – and that makes him look very well handicapped.

The issue of course, is that his run at Cheltenham was only 11 days ago – and he had a hard race.

Whether he can bounce back from it and produce his best this afternoon, is anyones guess.

The betting is suggesting he can, as he’s been backed in from 6/1 to 7/2 – but the reality is, nobody will know for sure, until it is too late…

Based on the Cheltenham run, he should have the beating of Eragon de Chany, as that one finished behind him – but is 5lb worse off today.

Knights Destroyer also ran in the race – but got no further than the second flight.

On the plus side, he won’t have taken much out of himself: on the minus side, it’s always risky backing a horse following a fall…

The market is headed by Malaya – but she comes with risks.

Whilst the form of her second to Redicean at Kempton looks good – she was well beaten that day and something had to finish second !

She is also quite small, to be carrying top weight…

City Dreamer is possibly more interesting.

He is closely matched with Malaya on early season running at Wetherby and he might be better suited to today conditions, than the mare…
The final one of interest is Comrade Conrad – though you have to be prepared to excuse a disappointing run last time, at Taunton.

On balance, it’s too tricky a race to get involved with, as a lot will depend on whether the main protagonists are in peak form.

If he’s recovered from his Cheltenham efforts, then Turning Gold is the most likely winner: with City Dreamer a slightly safer option.

3:10 Based on official ratings, then Adrian du Pont should win this.

He is rated 8lb superior to Happy Diva and 15lb superior to Valhalla.
Happy Diva receives 4lb from him – but should still have her work cut out to beat him: whilst, Valhalla has to give him 3lb, which in theory means he has no chance !

However, 3 horse races are often tactical affairs, in which the form book can be thrown out of the window.

Adrian du Pont likes to lead, so that should make things simple for him – however it might also make him a sitting duck.
Whether either of his rivals will be able to take advantage, is likely to depend on whether Harry Cobden gets his fractions right.

Sam Twiston Davies didn’t the last time he ran at Ascot and the horse was out on his feet, up the home straight.

I’m sure they will have learnt from that – but it would make you nervous about taking odds of 4/6 on him.

In fact, if I were to get involved in the race, I would likely take a punt on Valhalla.

He managed to come out on top in a 3 horse race on his latest run – even though the market didn’t expect him to.

I think a small field suits him, as he’s quite a quirky character.

It’s not something I would consider tipping though – so officially speaking, this is just a watching race…

3:45 This is a tricky looking race – and not one that I have a particularly strong opinion on.

Diego de Charmil is favourite - and he certainly has sufficient class to defy his current rating of 143.

However, he needs decent ground, which he may – or may not – get this afternoon.

If I were to get involved with the race, it would be with Beau Bay.

I was quite impressed with him at Hereford last time.

That was only a class 3 contest – but it struck me as quite a strong one.

He was second past the post that day – but was subsequently given the race in the stewards rooms.

He’ll need to step up this afternoon, if he is to take this – but that may happen…

That said, Vocaliser and Maestro Royal have both got a chance: whilst outsiders Darebin and Ashoka can’t be rules out with complete confidence.

With no real angle into the race, it has to be another one to watch…

4:20 I’m quite keen on Theatre Guide in this – and the dryer it gets, the keener I’ll become !

Part of the attraction, is that this is his first run in a veterans chase – and he’s taking on rivals who have all been competing in those contests.

As you all know, I do love my veterans chases – but the reality is, they are not quite as strong as open handicaps.

Consequently, this is effectively a bit of a step down in grade for Theatre Guide.

In fairness, based on his 2 most recent runs, he needs to step down !

However, he would have hated the heavy ground on his penultimate run in the Cotswold chase at Cheltenham: and his stable was badly out of form, when he last ran in the old Racing Post chase at Kempton.

Colin Tizzard has his string in much better form now – and Theatre Guide has been dropped 3lb (which enables him to get into this contest).

He is now running off the same mark that he won from at Cheltenham, just over 12 months ago.

The question is, how much has he deteriorated since then…

My feelings that he hasn’t deteriorated significantly – certainly his first time out run this season, when third in the Badger Ales trophy at Wincanton, was up with the best runs of his career.

If that is the case – then provide the ground isn’t too soft – I think he could prove too classy for todays rivals…

If he is in decline – and the race goes to one of the more established veterans, then I think it will be Sego Success.

He finished third to Band of Blood in a similar race at Doncaster last time, but must have every chance of reversing that form on 7lb better terms.

That’s also ignoring the fact that Band of Blood has subsequently run at Cheltenham – and todays will be his fourth race in just over a month (which strikes me as too many).

Of the others, then I wouldn’t completely dismiss either No Duffer or Fox Appeal – and I’m likely to save stakes on them at very big odds, just in case !

4:55 Salmanazar finished second in this race 2 seasons ago – and I think he’s got a good chance of going a place better this afternoon, from a mark 7lb lower…

He’s actually only run twice since that effort – both times this season.
Clearly something hasn’t been right with him, and I suspect connections have been bringing him back gradually,

There wasn’t too much to take from his debut run at Huntingdon in January: but he performed much better last time, when fourth at Chepstow.

I would expect that run to have put him spot on for today – and over a trip and course which he clearly likes, then off a decent mark, he should go very close…

The big danger looks to be Samuel Jackson.

He’s only run 3 times over hurdles: winning the first 2 and then running a creditable third in a Grade 2 event at Doncaster.

His opening mark of 137 looks reasonable - but it’s very difficult to accurately judge.

The winner of the Doncaster race did nothing for the form, when running at Cheltenham, so it may not have been the strongest of contests (it really is very hard to say).

Top Ville Ben and Ballyhague Bay are likely to put the pace to the race (and lots of it !) – however, the fact that both like to lead, is not really good news for either of them (for what it’s worth, I think Top Ville Ben will win that particular battle).

Sir Will is the other one of interest – but his mark was raised 5lb for a defeat at Warwick – and I never like that…

On balance, I’d prefer to be with Salmanazar – accepting that Samuel Jackson may be capable of improving past him.

Downpatrick

3:55 If the bookmakers were playing ball, Undressed would probably be a tip in this…

Betfair says he should be around 10/1 – and that would be quite acceptable.

However, the bookmarks are offering no more that 7/1 (even at 11:00) – and that’s a bit too short.

He ran really well in a veterans chase at Wexford last Saturday, chasing home the very talented Sumos Novios.

That was only 8 days ago, which is a concern – but if he can replicate the run, he must go close this afternoon.

He’ll have no issue with the trip either – and that’s not the case for all of his rivals.

Chief amongst them is Poormans Hill…
He represents Gordon Elliot and Jack Kennedy – and for that reason alone, has to be feared.

In fairness to him however, he also has form in the book, which gives him every chance – and again, he should cope fine with the trip.

Dinnies Vinnie isn’t as sure to get home – but if he does, he will go close; whilst Out Sam isn’t guaranteed to run his race – but is handicapped to go close if he does.

The same is also true of Wounded Warrior.

He was runner up in the Thystes 2 runs back – but has badly disappointed since.
He’s certainly not one you could trust – but he has the ability to go very close.

More than that, he can actually be backed at 20/1 – which is a fair price (unlike the one on offer for Undressed !).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Asc 4:20 Theatre Guide 1.5pt win 6/1

Asc 4:20 Sego Success 0.5pt win 5/1

Asc 4:55 Salmanazar 1pt win 9/1

Mentions

Asc 2:35 Turning Gold (C )

Asc 3:10 Valhalla (S )

Asc 3:45 Beau Bay (O )

DwnP 3:55 Undressed (P )