Daily write-up - Feb 17th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

There are some really good races as well – with some top class horses running.

That said, field sizes are generally smaller than you would like/expect – meaning that prices are generally tight.

I’ve managed to find a few tips on the day – but non of them are certainties.

They are ‘value’ calls, rather than strong fancies.

My strongest fancy on the day actually runs at Wincanton – but its price has been crushed, so it can only be a Mention (though one I expect to win !).

Anyway, it is as it is – I can only respond to the races/opportunities on offer !

Here are my thoughts on a busy day – including the rational for the tips that I did issue.

Ascot

1:15 Dame de Compagnie is the one that interests me most in this. She was massively impressive on her UK debut at Uttoxeter at the beginning of November, before disappointing a fortnight later, at Cheltenham.

She’s not run since then, suggesting that all was not right.

If she bounces back to her Uttoxeter form, I would expect her to be too good for Captain Cattistock, in receipt of 10lb.

1:50 I think Ms Parfois is the one to beat in this.
She’s shown progressive form over fences this season – and whilst this represents her stiffest task to date, I think she will be up to it.

She receives 7lb from apparent main rival, Black Corton.
He’s one I would instinctively look to oppose – though in fairness, his record this season is very impressive.

I actually think that Mountain Mews may be the best horse in the race – but he didn’t look to stay 3 miles last time at Doncaster and I fear it will be the same story today.

2:25 It’s a bit disappointing that Gold Present has been withdrawn from this.
Up 8lb for his last win – and racing on ground likely to be too soft for him, he was one I was keen to take on…

In his absence, the race looks open and I think it’s worth taking a chance on Minella Daddy.

I was a big fan of his last season, and tipped him at the Ascot Christmas meeting when he was collared close home, by Regal Encore (a painful defeat !).

An 11lb turn around in the weights for just under 2 lengths, should see Minella Daddy reverse things today – assuming both horses run to the same level of form…

Unfortunately, that isn’t guaranteed, as Regal Encore is notoriously unpredictable - and Minella Daddy is on his second run back, having been absent since last Christmas.

That absence is a bit of a worry – though I thought he shaped with promise on his recent comeback, over todays course.

Assuming that run has brought him on, then I would expect him to run a really big race this afternoon.

Certainly, track and trip are ideal – and whilst there is a question mark over the ground, I’m hopeful he’ll get away with it…

A case of sorts, can be made for all of the other runners.
If he (and his stable !) were in any kind of form then Tenor Nivernais would take a lot of beating – however, there are big question marks hanging over him, particularly at a price of just 6/1.

Another Venture is probably the right favourite - but he’s up in class and has plenty to prove: and whilst it may not be enough of a stamina test for Vieux Lion Rouge, it may be a bit too much for Holly Bush Henry…

3:00 This is a tough looking handicap – but I think Le Patriote may be capable of taking it.

He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run, when making his UK debut in the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton.

He tanked through that race that day, looking the most likely winner turning in, but then fading up the straight…

Maybe not too surprisingly, he was dropped back in trip for his next run, at Cheltenham – and was subject to huge market support.

However, he was a little disappointing and having held every chance, could only finish fourth.

That does put a question mark over him – as does the application of check pieces and the step back up in trip !

However, the Cheltenham race was most unsatisfactory, with the winner and third stealing a march on the field, so the value of the form is questionable.

I’m prepared to take a risk that Dr Newland is still learning about the horse - and trust his judgement with regard to both the trip and the cheekpieces.

The bottom line is, he travelled like a very well handicapped horse at Kempton (in an extremely strong contest) – and we are now getting a decent price, because of a poor run last time (which can be explained away)…

Kildisart is probably his main rival. Certainly Daryl Jacobs appears to have chosen him ahead of Fix le Kap - and he could be given a definite chance.

Whether the ground will be to Kildisarts liking however, is a different matter…

Dieg Man is another one of potential interest – with the betting likely to foretell his fate.
Whilst Vivas is the most interesting of the outsiders…

3:35 This is a truly fascinating contest – but a very difficult one to call…

Top Notch sets the standard: He looks almost certain to run his race – and whatever finishes in front of him, is likely to win !

The betting suggests that Waiting Patiently is his most dangerous rival – and I wouldn’t disagree with that.

He’s unbeaten in 5 races over fences and has improved on each outing.

He’ll need to take another step forward to defeat Top Notch – but he may be capable of doing just that.

Coney Island has a little more to prove.

He was a top notch novice in Ireland last season – but wasn’t impressive when making a successful seasonal debut over today course in December.

He’ll need to leave that run behind if he is to make any impression today.

On ratings, Frodon has a big chance - but I think he was flattered by his run last time, when everything went right for him.

I’d actually give Cue Card more of a chance – accepting that there is the possibility that he’s now past competing at this level.

I suspect he’ll be fully tuned for the run – and his stable is in good form.

Speredek and Traffic Fluid, should both be outclassed. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me hugely, if both ran well !

I’m certainly not sure that Traffic Fluid warrants being a 100/1 shot – though whether he can manage to get placed, is a different matter…

In all probability, I would expect this race to be won by either Top Notch or Waiting Patiently. The former is a very solid option: whilst the latter still has potential.

If there is to be a shock, then Cue Card is the one most likely to cause it.

Haydock

2:05 Agrapart really should win this.
He has to give 6lb to most of his rivals – but is rated at least 13lb superior to them all.

More than that, he will get the very soft ground that he needs – and should have no issue with the 3 mile trip.

On the flip side, Lizzie Kelly can’t claim her 3lb allowance, so he’s effectively only got 4lb in hand of Boite, on official ratings…

I would still expect that to be enough – I’m just not sure I would want to take 4/6 about it being so !

Boite does look the main danger – particular as he bounced back to form last time.
However, Zarkander won the corresponding race last year (when Agrapart could only finish third), and whilst the ground won’t suit him as well today, he must have a chance…

2:40 There is a poor turnout for this race.

I like Markov as a horse – and he should be the one to beat – but he may not appreciate very soft ground.

Lake View Lad should have no issue with condition, and at 11/4 against 7/4 for Markov, he is the value play in the race.

3:15 Off a mark of 161 and with the Grand National as the ultimate aim, I think Blaklion has to be taken on in this…

He was actually beaten in the corresponding race 12 months ago, when running off a mark 9lb lower.

Since then, he has run 3 really good races – but 2 of them were at Aintree, so their relevance to this contest is questionable.

Whatever, I’m not sure that he has improved by 9lb in 12 months – and he couldn’t win the race from his lower mark…

In fairness, there is a possibility that todays race may not be as strong as last seasons renewal – though it does appear up to scratch.

Wild West Wind was the one I was initially drawn to – but that was when he was a 7/1 shot.
He’s half that price now and whilst that won’t affect his chance of wining, it will affect our chance of betting profitably !

The Dutchman has a lot on his plate, having been raised 13lb for his last time out win; and whilst Three Faces West should have a decent chance, the fact that Dickie has gone to Wincanton, to ride horses with better chances, is a bit off putting.

Mysteree and Silsol are the 2 that interest me most.

The former was very progressive last season – and is proven at todays course, in heavy ground. The question is whether he has sufficient class for a race of this nature…

There is no doubting the class of Silsol.

When he won over hurdles 15 months ago, he was followed home by Native River and Lil Rockerfeller !

You can question the relevance of that form, for todays test – but you can’t question the quality.

He’s only run twice since then: and whilst there weren’t many positives to be gleaned fro his seasonal debut at Haydock in November – he did much better when fifth in the Welsh National, just after Christmas.

That proved he can cope with an extreme test in the mud – and off a mark of 144, he is handicapped to win.

I’m a little perplexed by the booking of Noel Fehily.

I’m a massive fan of his – he’s just not who I would expect to see on top (I would have expected with Sam TD or an apprentice).

That said, I can think of no better man to get the horse jumping – and that could ultimately prove key.
Silsol is definitely a risky selection. However, he has the class to win this, if everything drops right for him…

3:50 Black Ivory, Noble Robin and Tommy Rapper look the 3 to concentrate on in this.

All 3 are progressive novices – and whilst I doubt they will fill the first 3 places (though I guess they might !), I’ll be surprised if one of them doesn’t come home in front…

Black Ivory did us a favour last time, when wining at Warwick – but he’s got more of a job on today, off a 6lb higher mark and against less exposed opponents.

He may be up to it – but odds of 3/1 don’t really encourage taking a risk.

I slightly prefer his chances to those of the similarly priced Noble Robin.

He’s nearly impossible to assess, having won 3 run of the mill novice hurdles.

An opening mark of 130 may be generous – or it may not be…

It’s a bit easier to assess Tommy Rapper – because whilst he is also a novice, he has been running in better quality races (where a number of runners have quantifiable form).

He actually finished 8^th in last seasons Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival – and on the back off that, was sent off favourite for the Grade 2 Person War hurdle at Chepstow on his seasonal debut.

He disappointed that day – and on his next run when beaten at Towcester – but his 2 most recent runs suggest he is finally getting the hang of things and starting to fulfil his potential.

If that’s the case, then I suspect he is well handicapped on a mark of 135. Certainly a ¾ length defeat by Willoughby Court at Warwick last season, looks very good - with the benefit of hindsight !

Of the more exposed runners in the race, then Theos Charm looks most interesting.

However, he hasn’t got a great deal in hand of his mark – and I suspect Tommy Rapper, Back Ivory or Noble Robin, have…

Wincanton

2:15 I really wanted to tip War Sound in this…

He was an eye catcher last time at Cheltenham, when he travelled very powerfully in a good race but didn’t get home.
He’s been dropped 2lb in the handicap for that run – and returns to the minimum trip this afternoon.

Dickie is riding at Wincanton rather than Haydock – and I suspect War Sound is the main reason why…

He opened up at a general 3/1 last night and I was very happy with that.

I would even have accepted 5/2.

However, he’s now just 15/8 – and whilst I think that’s about right, I can’t bring myself to take the risk.

Firstly, he’s not the best of jumpers – and Wincanton has become a tricky track to jump round; secondly, he looked good forcing the pace last time – but he could have a rival for that role, in Beau Bay; and thirdly, I can’t completely dismiss any of his 4 opponents !

I do think that he’ll be too good for them – but we’re not getting much margin in case anything goes wrong, from a pace /jumping perspective.

I guess that’s the main issue with these small field races.

I would much rather have taken 5/1 on him in a 10 horse race.
Unfortunately, I don’t get to define the opportunities – I can merely respond to the ones that are placed in front of me !

2:45 I think Chti bello will take a bit of beating in this…

He’s the highest rated horse in the race – and has the best form in the book: but more than that, I suspect Dan Skelton has him primed to run for his life !

The reality is, the horse isn’t top class, and races like todays are probably as good as it’s going to get for him.

Therefore, it’s not unreasonable for Skelton to really go for it with him.
Certainly the fact that Harry is on board, when he could have take a few rides at Haydock, seems significant; as does the fitting of a first time tongue tie.

Of course there is a chance that Call me Lord is just a better horse: but I think he will have to be a fair bit better, as I doubt he will be as tuned up…

Elgin is probably the third best hose in the race – but I doubt he’ll be able to give 4lb to the other 2.

The other one of interest, is Flying Tiger.

He’s an eye catcher – and having his final run as such.

Again, if he was fully tuned up, I think he could go much closer than his odds imply. However, he is rated 16lb inferior to Chti bello – so beating him (or even running close) would mess up a handicap mark which I suspect connections will want to preserve, for the spring festivals…

Gowran Park

2:00 The Ascot chase may be the race of the day - but the Red Mills chase isn’t far behind.

In fact, as they are both run over 2m4f, it’s a bit of a shame they can’t be combined !

In receipt of weight from all of his rivals, Presenting Percy looks the one to beat.

He has become a very versatile horse (as well as a very good one !): winning over 3m5f on his penultimate start; and over hurdles on his most recent one.

I don’t think that 2m4f is his optimum trip – but he may get away with it, particularly in heavy ground.

Furthermore, 2m4f isn’t the optimum trip of his main danger, Our Duke.

He definitely wants at least 3 miles, and under top weight today, I’ll be surprised if he comes home in front.

The ground is the main issue with Valseur Lido – plus an inexplicably poor run last time, when I realty fancied him !

Which means that A Toi Phil must have a chance of springing a surprise…

Conditions will be perfect for him – he just shouldn’t be good to win !
All the negatives make it an impossible race to get involved with, as it will ultimately come down to who can deal with their issues best !

I suspect that will be Presenting Percy – but  at 6/4, I won’t be betting on it !

3:10 The defection of Mick Jazz has turned this into a more interesting betting race…

Whilst he wasn’t a certainty, he was the most solid option in the race, so with him out, it’s become a race which I think is worth getting involved with.

Lagostovegas is now a short priced favourite, and whilst I would agree that she should head the betting,  she has a couple of significant issues to overcome.

She has not run since last November – and that was on the flat: whilst she also has a marked preference for decent ground (which she won’t get !).

This is almost certainty a prep rave for her spring targets – and as a consequence, I think she is vulnerable this afternoon…

I think she is worth taking on with Identity Thief.

A former top class hurdler, he look like doing equally well over fences - until going wrong behind Min, last Christmas.

He didn’t look the same horse in his 4 subsequent runs last spring – but I thought there were positives in his comeback performance in the Irish Champion hurdle at Leopardstown, a fortnight ago.

He travelled nicely to the second last – before getting tapped for toe when the pace quickened.
However, he stayed on nicely after the last – and I suspect he will have come on for that run.

It’s impossible to know how much of his former ability remains.

However, at his best, he would have won this race quite comfortably - and with doubts over the favourite and with him having shown promise on his most recent run, I think he is worth a risk at the price.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Asc 2:25 Minella Daddy 1pt win 7/1

Asc 3:00 Le Patriote 1pt win 11/2

Hayd 3:15 Silsol 1pt win 10/1

Hayd 3:50 Tommy Rapper 1pt win 11/2

Gwrn 3:10 Identity Thief 1pt win 10/1

Mentions

Asc 1:15 Dame de Compagnie (P )

Asc 1:50 Ms Parfois (P )

Asc 3:35 Cue Card (O )

Winc 2:15 War Sound (P )

Winc 2:45 Chti bello (P )

Gwrn 2:00 Presenting Percy (C )