Daily write-up - Feb 11th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Exeter and Ayr in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

Exeter stages the best meeting of the day: but the best race of the day, is the Grand National trial at Punchestown.

The first prize for the race has doubled from 12 months ago – and it’s drawn a really strong field.

Unlike yesterday, I had no problem finding tips – the problem was actually issuing them, at a time which gave you all a chance of getting on (and without compromising accounts).

Hopefully it worked out OK…

Just a quick reminder, that I won’t be producing a review after racing today.
I’m heading off for a couple of days this afternoon, so I’ll send it out on my return (either late Tuesday, or early Wednesday).

I’ve ended up with 3 tips on the day – 2 at Exeter and 1 at Punchestown.

Here’s the rational behind them – and some other thoughts on the days action.

Exeter

2:30 Vision Des Flos is the first of 3 eye catchers running today…

He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Chepstow, back in October, when running really well in a Grade 2 novice event.

It takes a horse of rare ability to run well in such a strong contest, on his first go over obstacles - and based on that run, I felt Vision des Flos was destined for the top.

However, his 2 subsequent runs have been disappointing: first at Cheltenham in another Grade 2 event – and then at Hereford in a novice hurdle…

He didn’t run dreadfully on either occasion – just not as well as I expected.

It’s very interesting to see that his wind has now been operated on.
If he’s been struggling to breath properly, that would explain his last 2 performances.

If the op has done the trick, then despite facing some fair opponents today, I think he will take the beating.

In the circumstances, he could be worth a small risk, if you can beat 3/1…

3:05 I’m pretty keen on Present Times in this.

He won a race over todays course and distance, on his seasonal debut, back in November – before running second to Lovenormoney at Chepstow, 3 weeks later.

The winner got the run of the race that day, and I fancy Present Times to reverse the form this afternoon, on 9lb better terms.

I also like the fact that he’s proven under today conditions – and also when running after a break (as it’s 2 months since his most recent run).

Todays race does represent a step up in grade (class 4 to class 2) – but as a consequence, Present Times finds himself with very little weight to carry, and in heavy ground, that has to be a positive.

In truth, I can’t see any negatives with him – the question is simply whether he will be good enough to beat some fair rivals…

And I’m optimistic that he will be.
Charming Zen is disputing favouritism with him - but you couldn’t be interested in him, based on his comeback run at Kempton.

He ran no sort of a race that day – and it strikes me that Nicky Henderson is clutching at straws, raising him by a mile in trip, today…

Returning to hurdles, Dadsintrouble could be more dangerous – but you have to wonder how much he has in hand of his current mark…

Almost exactly the same is true of Solomn Grundy: and whilst Dancing Shadow may be well handicapped on his return to hurdles, his recent runs have been poor.

Overland Flyer could be dangerous on his belated seasonal debut – but I suspect the object of the exercise, will be to get him qualified for the final of the series: whilst Poker Play could also be dangerous – but is another with a lot to prove a the moment.

In short, I like the profile of Present Times – and I’m not overly fearful of any of his rivals.

At 4/1 or bigger, he’s a good bet.

3:35 I’m not quite so keen on Band of Blood in this – though that said, if he’s tuned for the run, he will take a lot of beating…

With likely heavy ground – and Pete the Feat in the race – I can see this turning into a war of attrition and only horses with serious stamina are going to get home.

I don’t think that will be in the favour of favourite, Cloudy Bob – or original second favourite, Gentleman Jon (who is now a drifter).

It should suit Harry Topper – but he has a tendency to get behind in his races, so may find himself too far off the pace to get involved.

The other one it should really suit, is Band of Blood…

Formerly a fair horse in Ireland, he transferred into the care of Dr Newland a couple of years ago, with the plan of running in the Grand National.

However, he didn’t do well enough in his first few runs for the stable, to get his rating sufficiently high to compete in the race.

That said, his third to subsequent Grand National runner up, The Last Samurai, in the 2016 Grimthorpe chase off a mark of 132, is very good form in the context of this race – and if he’s anywhere near that level today, Band of Blood will win.

He’s now down to a mark of 119 – though in fairness that’s partly because he’s not run for almost 2 years.

Consequently, this really comes down to whether he can still run to his old level –and whether he has been readied to do so.

We are guessing on both scores – but there aren’t many opportunities of this value, for horses of his vintage – and Dr Newland is certainly capable of getting them ready, if the horse retains the ability.

Not too many of the TVB winners have been very well backed this season – but if this one is going to win, expect a lot of money for it.

He’s definitely one you want to be taking an early price on !

4:10 There may only be 4 runners - but this is a fascinating race.

It should really contain an eye catcher as well, as I intended to put up Pobbles Bay after his last time out run in the Welsh National. However I missed him off when I wrote up the list !

In truth, I doubt it will matter, as he shouldn’t be up to giving away weight to a couple of horses rated superior to him (if he does, it will wreck his handicap mark !).

Elegant Escape and Ramses de Teillee are the 2 horses in question - and choosing between them isn’t easy.

Both have produced a number of really strong performances this season – and both are still progressing.

I’ve been particularly impressed by Ramses de Teillee – and whilst he is rated 2lb inferior to his main opponent, he will relish todays conditions (and Elegant Escape may not).

Obviously, I’ll also be keeping a very close eye on Pobbles Bay, as I’m sure he’s capable of winning a decent race, before the season is over.

4:40 This is another cracking little race – and it does feature an eye catcher.

Verni caught the eye on his seasonal debut at Haydock, back in November – and makes his chasing debut today.

He wasn’t put up as an eye catcher in the expectation that he would be sent over fences – and he strikes me as a bit old, to be making the change.

That said, based on hurdles ratings, he is the best horse in the race at the weights, so if he does jump effectively, he will have a good chance…

Le Rocher sets the standard for the race – and he’s a horse that I have a lot of time for.
He’ll have no issue with the ground either, and I would expect him to go close.

Brelan D’as looked very good when winning at Wincanton last season – but has disappointed on his tow runs since then.

You could only really watch him – though if he bounces back to his best, he could very well win.

Allyson Monterg is another one who you can only watch – on his return to action after 18 months off the track.

Rayvin Black is likely to relish the ground – and I could see him running a good race (though I’ll be surprise if he can beat Le Rocher): whilst I wouldn’t completely dismiss Diamont Bleu – even though he has no form (so far !) which suggests he should be up to winning…

It’s far too tricky a race to call with any confidence - but it should certainly be a good one to watch !

Punchestown

4:20 I tipped Baie des Iles when she won this race 12 months ago - and felt it was one of the best tips I issued all season.

I struggled to see her getting beaten that day (ignoring Bonny Kate !) and couldn’t believe her price.

Needless to say, she was my start point for this years race, off a mark just 4lb higher.

Certainly, I think she has a chance – particularly as she has clearly been brought to the boil, with this race in mind…

However, this is a much stronger contest than it was 12 months ago.
As I said the introduction, the first prize has been doubled – and it has understandably, attracted a better quality field.

Therefore, off a 4lb higher mark, I think Baie des Iles is vulnerable (although I would still expect her to run very well).

The Willie Mullis trained Childrens List will have his supporters – particularly as he beat Irish Gold Cup winner, Edwulf, on his penultimate run.

I’m not sure he’ll have the stamina to cope with today test, however…

Mall Dini is also likely to be popular, representing the Patrick Kelly/Davy Russell combination which has done so well in big races overt the past couple of seasons.

He’s not Presenting Percy though…

In truth, I’m glad the 3 named are running, because they mean we will get some kind of a price on Folsom Blue.

He actually won the corresponding race 4 years ago, when trained by Conor O’Dwyer  - and has also been placed in an of Irish National.

That was when trained by Mouse Morris – but he is now trained by Gordon Elliott.

He transferred into Elliotts care at the start of this season and won on his first race for him, back in November.
That was over hurdles – and his 2 runs since then, have also been over the smaller obstacles.

In fact, he was an eye catcher on the most recent of them – just last weekend, when fourth at Sandown.

That looked like a run designed to get him spot on for a return to fences – though I didn’t expect him to be running again, quite so soon…
We’ll have to trust Elliotts judgment on that – though in fairness, that tends to be quite sound !

Of the others in the race, the Spider Web and Wounded Warrior are both potentially interesting – but neither has been missed in the betting.

Thunder and Roses is also worth a mention, as he’s been running very well recently.

All this said, Folsom Blue is handicapped to win – and has already shown that today’s test suits him admirably.
If Elliott has him spot on, I would expect him to come home in front.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Exe 3:05 Present Times 2pt win 4/1

Exe 3:35 Band of Blood 1pt win 7/1

Punch 4:20 Folsom Blue 1pt win 13/2

Mentions

Exe 2:30 Vision des Flos (S )

Exe 4:40 Verni (O )