Sunday 25 February 2018

Review of the day

There was no joy with todays 3 tips – though they all ran with some credit, particularly considering their morning odds…

In fact, all 3 ran quite similar races: prominent early – before fading when it mattered…

First up was Our Kaempfer.

I was a little disappointed to see him sent into the lead, as that’s not his normal running style.
Generally, when horses wearing head gear for the first time, lead early, they don’t get home.
And that’s precisely what happened with him, as he led into the home straight, but then faded…

He could be interesting next time, off an even lower mark – provided he is ridden with more restraint.
However, he would again be a risky proposition…

Next it was Thebarrowman, in the Eider chase at Newcastle.

He didn’t lead early; instead he took up a position just behind leader, Milansbar.

In truth, I could have no issue with the way he was ridden.
He was given every chance, if he was good enough – he just wasn’t good enough.

He looked a tired horse when he fell at the fourth last, and he sadly paid the ultimate price for his efforts.

Zeroshadesofgrey was the final tip to run.
He was very strong in the betting, eventually being sent off the 9/2 second favourite.

It’s possible that some of support was down to traders, who figured he was likely to get an uncontested lead.

And that is what happened – though they presumably didn’t allow for the fact that he was going to crash through numerous hurdles !

It says much for his ability that he was still leading – and seemingly going well – when he entered the home straight.
However his early efforts then took their toll and he was beaten after jumping the second last…

With regard to the Mentions:

Then Bid Adieu was far too free at Kempton – and didn’t get home,
Beau Gosse ran better in the same race – but appeared to find everything happening too quickly.
The race was won by Redicean – and he subsequently received a lot of praise (and a relatively low quote for the Triumph hurdle !).
He may ultimately prove himself a good horse – but I really don’t think that todays race took much winning…

I was far more impressed by Global Citizen, as he won a seemingly much stronger Dovecote hurdle in convincing style.
He could be a horse going places.

Shoal Bay finished in mid division and was a bit disappointing…

Theatre Territory ran really well to finish third in Betdaq handicap chase.
She travelled strongly throughout – but lacked a change of gear when the pace quickened in the home straight.
The race was won by Master Dee, who I had marked down as the main danger.

In truth, I could easily have tipped both horses – if at any point, I’d been able to get decent odds.
I managed to back them both at 12 on BF, within 5 mins of the off – but those kind of odds weren’t available when I was able to tip.

It was a similar story with Baywing and Hainan in the Eider chase – and it demonstrates the importance of showing patience in the big races, and picking off prices throughout the day…

Kayf Blanco ran yet another really big race in the penultimate race on the Kempton card – but was again let down by his jumping.
This time however, it was early in the race – as he didn’t jump too badly when put under pressure in the closing stages.

He still spent a bit too long in the air however, and that probably cost him victory.

He is improving though and I would expect him to come good, sooner rather than later…

Over at Chepstow, Coeur Blimey was a big disappointment – so maybe we owe Tom Segal a drink !

Finally, Eastlake was a non runner in the 2 mile chase – leaving the relatively well backed Tornado in Milan to beat Overtown Express.
I wouldn’t have seen that one coming…

TVB.

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