Daily write-up - Feb 10th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Newbury, Warwick and Uttoxeter in the UK  - plus Naas in Ireland.

It’s a bit of a strange day…

The main meeting is at Newbury – and whilst there are some big races, featuring high-class horses, there are precious few betting opportunities…

The 7 race card includes 2 x 3 horse races: a novice hurdle and a bumper: whilst the feature Betfair hurdle is as tight a handicap as you will see.

Consequently there are effectively 2 races which lend themselves to solving (and consequently tipping/betting).

The situation is slightly different at Warwick – which is the main supporting meeting.

3 of the 7 races there, are Class 4 events – and I’m trying to stick to Class 3 or above (as it’s far easier to bet in ‘Big’ races).

Worse than that, of the remaining 4 races, then one has 4 runners – and another just 2.

Again, that leaves just a couple of races, for me to try and solve….

It’s all very different to last weekend, when there was a glut of suitable races for tipping/betting.

The prospect of rain – and going changes – just adds to the problem, and with little of interest at either Uttoxeter or Naas, I did briefly consider a ‘No tips’ day !

However, I eventually managed to find a couple of suitable opportunities – though I’m always a little uncomfortable, if I feel I’ve had to force things (that’s not the case – but I’m right on the cusp).

In truth, there’s not really that many races for me to even pass a strong opinion on.

I’ve covered all the races of interest – including the rationale for the tips – but it’s still a comparatively short write-up.

I guess we’ll just have to accept that it’s a quiet day (it will make up for last Saturdays epic !).

Newbury

1:50 If you knew he was back to his best, Barters Hill would be some bet in this, off a mark of  just 141…

He was a top class bumper horse: beating Buveur Dair and Altior in the bumper which closes today card: and very good in his novice season over hurdles (he won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, over todays course).

However, he slipped a tendon on his chasing debut at Cheltenham 15 months ago – and hasn’t been seen since…

Connections are saying that he is in good form – and are hopeful that he retains most of his ability – but until he shows it on the track, we are guessing…

Arguably, 3/1 isn’t a bad price to guess over – because if he is back anywhere near his best, he should be much too good for his rivals.

That said, I can’t bring myself to take the risk…

I might have done – as a saver – if I could have found a horse in the race who I would have been happy to support in his absence – but I couldn’t…

King Uther, Bastien and Book of Gold, were the 3 who attracted me most – but I couldn’t see a compelling case for any of them: nor sufficient in the odds to take a risk…

As a consequence, it has to be a watching race…

2:25 This is another watching race - though I always expected that to be the case…

With both Native River and Saphir de Rhue making belated seasonal debuts, it’s likely to come down to whether they are sharp enough to run the finish out of Cloudy Dream.

As he showed when winning last seasons Hennessey, Newbury is a course that suits Native River perfectly – and if he is close to peak fitness, I think he will win.

However he’s never previously won on his seasonal debut, so I’m not sure I would want to take odds on about him breaking that sequence today…

Saphir de Rheu is reported likely to need the run – though the betting will likely advise on whether that is actually the case.

Assuming the other 2 aren’t at their peaks, then Cloudy Dream becomes the one to beat. However he is not guaranteed to stay the trip – particularly if it’s a strongly run race…

He will almost certainly look the most likely winner at some point, however – so maybe the best course of action, is to back him pre-race and then lay him off in running at around 2.

That should allow you to enjoy the final part of the race, without worrying too much about whether his stamina will give out !

3:00 Fitness is likely to be the deciding factor in this race as well – with Altior making his seasonal debut and Politologue apparently, not a his absolute peak.

In terms of pure ability, then despite having improved significantly this season, I think Politologue is a fair way short of the standard set by Altior.

Altior has proven himself a truly exceptional horse - both over hurdles and as a novice over fences – and if he is back to his best, I think he will be too good for Politologue.

Unfortunately, he’s not guaranteed to be at his best, as he’s been operated on for an issue with his wind.

That should be a relatively minor procedure (unlike the problem that Barters Hill is recovering from, for example) – but you still can’t be sure until they turn up on the track and perform.

It has to be another watching race – though I suspect that the betting will very accurately predict the outcome !

3:35 This really is a ridiculously competitive race – and without exaggeration, I could have constructed a case for three quarters of the 24 runners…

In the circumstances, it is tempting to leave it alone – but I do think there is a bit of ‘value’ with some of the outsiders.

Novices have a very good record in the race in recent seasons, so maybe not surprisingly, all of the unexposed horses have found their way to the head of the market.

It’s quite possible that one of their number will take the prize – but I’m sure that a few  of them will disappoint.

That’s particularly likely, if the forecast rain materialises – in which case, the race really could be won by almost any of the runners…

Two which I think have a chance of at least placing – and have been under-estimated in the market, are Zalvados and William H Bonney.

The former actually has the right kind of profile for the racing, being a relatively lightly race, improving novice.

I suspect he’s been missed in the betting, because he has a low profile trainer (Oliver Grenhall) – and he only just sneaked into the race.

However, he has some decent form – including a third placing behind Chesterfield at Aintree, last spring – and a second behind Limited Reserve in December.

The reinstating of a 7lb claimer in the saddle – and the fitting of first time blinkers, both look like positive moves.

He’s not an easy one to quantify, but I think he’s got a chance of being in the mix…

The same is true of William H Bonney.

He’s got a very different profile to Zalvados – and was actually sent off at just 15/2 for the corresponding race last season.

He never featured that day – but was arriving on the back of a big run at Cheltenham, so maybe wasn’t at his peak.

He looks to be a horse who runs his best races when fresh.

His seasonal debut effort in the Greatwood hurdle, was massively eye catching – and suggested that he is capable of going close in a race like this.

He’s a strong traveller, so hopefully Wayne Hutchinson will be able to settle him in behind the pace and produce him late.

Whether he will be good enough to win, remains to be seen – but I’m sure he is capable of running a big race.

Victory for almost any of those at the head of betting, wouldn’t come as a big surprise…

My original fancies for the race were Irish Roe and Kalashnikov – but they are both short enough in the betting considering they need decent ground (and rain is forecast).

4:10 I like Duke Des Champs in this – but I think his price of 7/2 is too short, in a race where all 7 of the runners, can be given a chance.

More than that, there are slight question marks over whether Duke des Champs will produce his form.

He was a fair novice hurdler a couple of seasons back – but missed all of last season, only reappearing over todays course at the end of December.

He ran a nice race that day – and provided that has brought him on, I would expect him to go close today. However, that isn’t guaranteed…

Reigning Supreme is arguably his most dangerous rival – though I didn’t feel that he wasn’t travelling particularly well, when falling last time.

Lovely Job should run his race – and I can see him being suited by Newbury. I guess the question with him, is whether todays test will pay to his stamina strength.

In fact, at the prices, I would be more tempted by Three Ways or Indy Five.

The former sports a first time visor – and could have been under-estimated in the betting: whilst he latter was impressive on his penultimate outing, before falling at the second, last time.

Neither one is rock solid – but both can be given a chance.

In summary, I just felt there were too many question marks, to be siding with Duke Des Champs at a relatively short price.

Warwick

2:05 In theory, this race should be at the mercy of Midnight Tour.
She is rated at least 10lb superior to all of her rivals – but only has to give them 4lb.

The trip is perfect for her – though there is a chance that she may find the ground a little testing (depending on how it is riding).

Despite her claims however, I’m not inclined to support her…

She hasn’t been in the best of form so far this season – and I there is a chance that her current rating flatters her.

That said, I couldn’t find anything that I really wanted to take her on with.

Midnight Jazz is the obvious one, as she is the second highest rated horse in the race – but she is vying for favouritism and of the pair, I prefer the chances of Midnight Tour !

Woolstone One probably tempts me the most – particularly as Gavin Sheehan takes the ride, before setting off for Newbury.

She looks an improver – and won well at Doncaster last time.
However that was off a mark of just 117 – nearly 30lb shy of Midnight Tours rating…

In short, she shouldn’t be good enough to get anywhere near Midnight Tour.

It’s a tricky one, as if ratings can be believed, Midnight Tour should win easily – I just have my reservations as to whether they can, and 2/1 is a very short price to test them with…

2:40 There may only be 4 runners, but this is still a fascinating race…

North Hill Harvey sets the standard, and I can see him being well suited to the jumping test that Warwick provides.

He’s performed well on all 3 of his races over fences – and whilst he may be a touch shy of the highest level, it will still take a good one to beat him.

Unfortunately for him, there is a distinct possibility that Saint Calvados is a good one !

He’s only run twice in the UK – winning impressively on his chasing debut at Newbury in December and then following up, just as impressively, at the same venue, 3 weeks later.

He’s been given a handicap mark of 154 on the back of those 2 wins – which is 2lb higher than North Hill Harvey’s rating.

However, North Hill Heavy has to give him 6lb today – plus a 1lb weight for age allowance.

That should be too much – for all that North Hill Harvey may get the run of the race…

The other 2 runners, Diego de Charmil and Drumcliffe, are both fair sorts – but all things being equal, they shouldn’t be up to beating either of the principals.

3:15 This is another open looking race, in which most of the runners can be given a chance – but it does contain an eye catcher and that always helps me when I’m looking for tips !
The horse is question is Casse Tete – who caught my eye on his most recent run at Cheltenham, just a fortnight ago.

That was in a very hot race and he travelled nicely until backing out of things after jumping the fourth last.

That was Casse Tetes second run this season – and he possibly needed it to put him spot on.

I actually tipped Casse Tete when he won at Sandown at the back end of last season.

In fact, he didn’t just win that day, he absolutely bolted up, cruising home by 27 lengths, hard held.

In the circumstances, it wasn’t too surprising that the handicapper saw fit to raise his mark by 13lb – but his 2 runs this season, have seen it dropped 8lb…
As a result he gets into todays race off a mark just 5lb higher than at Sandown - and that definitely makes him interesting…

He’s still only 6 – and has loads of scope for improvement. I think he is capable of winning this race from a mark of 133.

That said, he does face some decent rivals...

Kylmore Lough has to give him 18lb  - but he’s the class horse in the race and may be up to the task.

Templehills was a comfortable winner of the corresponding race 12 months ago off a mark just 5lb lower than he races from today – and on that form he too has every chance.

Whilst Value at Risk is potentially thrown in on hurdling form – though he hasn’t looked a natural over fences and Warwick does take some jumping…

It’s not quite so easy to make a case for the other 3: with Thomas Crapper making his seasonal reappearance (and not wearing cheek pieces); Cogry running over a trip that should be too short for him (though I expect him to be given a very aggressive ride); and Pressurize looking a bit long in the tooth for a race of this nature (he will also hopefully get into a pace war with Cogry !).

It’s not a race that I feel massively confident about – but I do think that Casse Tete has a good chance – and that there is some value in his price.

He’s therefore worth having on side, to modest stakes.

3:50 Every TVB season, there is a horse or two who helps define the season  - and this time round, Triopas is such a horse…

I picked up on him back in November, when he won at Chepstow – and he has run 5 times since then, winning on three occasions and being placed on the other two.

He’s a low grade horse – and consequently, I didn’t think I would get chance to tip him this season – however, I did consider tipping him today…

He’s a horse who I think needs a real stamina test, so I’m pleased to see him stepped up in trip to 3m2f.

I don’t think he’ll have any issue if the ground is soft, so I would expect him to run a big race…

The trouble is, he is taking on better opposition than he has done in his races so far – and from his highest handicap mark.

He may be up to the job – but then again…

Certainly, Flashjack and Lavel Noir look like serious opponents: whilst Just a Thought is very strong in the betting.

I did briefly toy with tipping Triopas each way – but at 8/1, the margin for error is small…

Instead, I’ll just have to cheer him on, in his biggest test of the season so far…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Newb 3:35 Zalvados 0.5pt EW 33/1

Newb 3:35 William H Bonney 0.5pt EW 33/1

Warw 3:15 Casse Tete 1pt win 13/2

Mentions

Newb 1:50 Barters Hill (C )

Newb 2:25 Cloudy Dream (C )

Newb 4:10 Duke Des Champs (P )

Warw 2:05 Midnight Tour (S )

Warw 3:50 Triopas (O )