Daily write-up - Feb 4th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Musselburgh and Taunton in the UK – plus Leopardstown in Ireland.

It’s day 2 of the Dublin Racing festival at Leopardstown – and the there’s no discernable slackening of the pace !

There are 8 more races today: consisting of 4 Grade 1s, a Grade 2 – and 3 ferocious handicaps.

Not exactly easy pickings, then !

Things aren’t quite so manic at Musselburgh, where they stage the second day of their 2 day meeting.

There are some good horses running at the Scottish track – but the main races aren’t competitive.

My comparison, things are decidedly low key at Taunton - so in the circumstances, I decided to swerve that meeting !

I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day, across 3 of the Leopardstown races.

Here is the rationale behind them – plus my thoughts on the days other big races…

Leopardstown

12:40 The second day of the festival opens up with a mere 20 runner handicap – trivial by comparison with the handicap fields assembled yesterday !

Furthermore, I suspect that half of the field can be probably be ignored – which should make it almost a solvable race.

However, a number of the runners have form which is not easy to get a handle on - with plenty of them open to significant improvement.

For example, favourite Contingency, has only run twice over hurdles – so it’s anyones guess whether a rating of 120 is flattering or lenient.

My 3 against the field are Canalie, Ellie Mac and Lady Buttons.

The first named was an impressive winner on her debut for Harry Fry at Taunton and her 5lb raise is offset by the claim of crack apprentice, Donal McInerney (Irelands answer to James Bowen !).

Ellie Mac was a shock maiden winner at Leopardstown over Christmas – and could be well treated with an opening mark of 118 (though it’s guess work).
She too is apprentice ridden – with 7lb claimer Daniel Holden in the saddle.

Lady Buttons is by far the most exposed of the trio – but at least we know she deserves her rating of 132 !

In fact, it could be quite lenient – and I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t go close (though she is probably vulnerable from a win perspective).

Of the 3, I would probably have a slight preference for Canalie – but I don’t fancy her sufficiently to make her a tip, in a race with so many unknowns.

1:15 Whilst this is not a race that I want to get involved with directly – it’s one that I’ll be watching with great interest…

That’s because Farclas runs in it – and I tipped him earlier in the week for the Triumph hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.

My expectation at the time, was that he would contest this race – and hopefully, run very well !

I’m actually optimistic that he may be able to beat favourite, Espoir D’Allen – though provided he at least runs him close, I’ll be happy.
There is no doubt that Espoir D’Allen sets the standard for the race – and he is currently the best juvenile hurdler running in Ireland.

He comfortably beat Farclas when the pair clashed at Leopardstown over Christmas - and is 3lb better off today.
Based on that, you wouldn’t expect Farclas to beat him today – however, he was making his hurdling debut that day and looked likely to derive significant benefit from the outing…

We are likely to find out exactly how much he has improved, this afternoon – but my expectation is that there won’t be much between the pair.

There is a slight danger that this won’t be a 2 horse race…

Mr Adjudicator represents the stable of Willie Mullins – which is quite significant considering he had declared Stormy Island at the 5 day stage (and she was expected to run).

He’s only won a maiden so far – but is clearly held in high regard.

That said, he has a lot to find with the main 2 protagonists…

1:50 The much hyped Samcro run in this – and he’s going to need to be every bit as good as his reputation, if he’s to win !

Unbeaten in his 5 starts under rules – he has looked every inch the next jumping superstar – but he’s likely to face a serious examination this afternoon…

Firstly, he is racing over a trip which is short of his best.

In fairness, 4 of his 5 wins have been over the minimum distance – but he was stepped up by half a mile last time – and his future is likely to be over further still.

That said, he’s not short of pace – and with the ground likely to be riding soft this afternoon (there’s been overnight rain), he’ll probably get away with it.

His other issue however, is that he’s facing some serious rivals…

Chief amongst them is Sharjah.

He is a genuine 2 miler – and would have won the Grade 1 novice event at Leopardstown over Christmas, if he’d not fallen at the last.

On that form, he sets the standard for the race – and it’s quite a high standard !

That said, there are at least 3 others in the race, who have the potential to be just as good: Debuchet, Paloma Blue and Duc Des Genievres.

Non of them have yet approached the level of form achieved by Samcro or Sharjah – but all 3 are capable of putting in massively improved performances today…

It really can’t be a race to bet in, but it should be an enthralling - and highly informative - watch.

2:25 Based on his chasing rating, Total Recall should hack up in this !

He transferred into the care of Willie Mullins this season – and wins in a couple of big chases, have seen his mark in that discipline rise from 129 to 156.

He gets to run over hurdles today, off a mark of 125 – so 31lb lower than his current chase rating.

Even if he jumps the hurdles as if they are fences, he is likely to take a bit of beating !

And in fairness, there is no reason why he should have any issue with the hurdles.

He was a perfectly competent hurdler a couple of years back, and won a fair race at Naas off a mark of 123.

Based purely on that form, he would have every chance this afternoon…

In short, it’s hard to see him beaten – even if a price of 5/4 leaves little margin for error…

That said, this doesn’t strike me as the hottest of races.

Second favourite, A Great View, is the obvious each way alternative, having looked a little unlucky not to win at Leopardstown over Christmas.

He’s not 2 stone ahead of his mark though !

Not many of the others really grab me – though I have a sneaky suspicion that Taglietelle might outrun massive odds.

He’s undoubtedly well treated on old form – but seemed to have completely lost the plot.

However, he’s shown a bit of his old sparkle in his 2 most recent runs – and it’s interesting that Jack Kennedy is on board.

Even at his peak, he would struggle to cope with Total Recall – but each way, at 40/1 he could be worth a tiny interest…

3:00 This is by far and away the best novice chase run so far this season.

The top 4 in the betting have huge potential – and it says much for the quality of the race, that Snow Falcon can be backed at 14/1. He’s a grade 2 winning hurdler –and was most impressive last time over fences - yet is virtually disregarded in the betting.

I was initially attracted to him (as you may have guessed !) – but I think I’ve found a couple of better ones instead !

The first of those is Sutton Place – and simply, I think he has the class and potential to go to the very top over fences.

He was an ultra smart hurdler last season – where he achieved a rating of 158.

That is borderline Championship class – but his 2 comprehensive defeats of Supersundae, suggest it was more than warranted !

He’s only run once over fences, when beating the very useful Kemboy on New Years day.
His jumping that day, was a little ponderous – but it improved as the race went on and I expect it to be sharper still today.

He’s a horse with a marked preference for soft ground – so I do wonder whether connections are going to be keen to get the big win out of him today, rather than waiting for the Spring festivals.

Certainly, if he’s in top form – and provided his jumping stands up to the test – I think he will win.

That said, with it being a novice chase, almost anything is possible !

Consequently, I also want to be with Dounikos.

He doesn’t have the class of Sutton Place – but he’s a proven slogger and if things get tough, he is likely to be a danger to them all.

He’s only run twice over fences – but has won on both occasions.

He was an unfancied 28/1 shot when winning on his chasing debut at Gowran – and getting the better of subsequent Thystes winner, Monbeg Notorious: whilst he was a 14/1 shot when taking advantage of Al Boum Photos last fence fall at Limerick.

My feeling is that he would have gone very close that day, regardless – so why he’s a 28/1 today and Al Boum Photo is 8/1, is anybodys guess…

As for the others, then Monalee is undoubtedly a good horse: but over a trip short of this best, on the back of a last time out fall, he looks opposable: whilst Invitation Only just doesn’t look as naturally talented as Sutton Place.
In short, I’m hopeful that I’ve go this race covered, whichever way it pans out !

If all goes according to plan, then the class of Sutton Place should see him through: whilst if it turns into a war, then streetfighter, Dounikos could easily come good !

3:00 The more I look at this race, the keener I become on Valseur Lido ! (hence the topped up stake !).

He should actually have won this race 2 years ago, when trained by Willie Mullins.
He arrived at the final fence that day, with Ruby sitting motionless – but then fell !

A subsequent second to the great Vautour at the Cheltenham festival, showed that he was a top class operator: and that was confirmed when he won the Grade 1 Champion chase at Down Royal on his seasonal debut, the following autumn.

That was his first run for Henry de Bromhead – and on his second one, he was sent off 3/1 second favourite for the Lexus at Leopardstown.

However, he could only finish fourth that day – and wasn’t seen again until contesting the same race this Christmas.

He finished a place worse in this years running - but I felt he ran with huge promise for the future…

He travelled with real purpose – but just couldn’t go on from the home turn, and lost out on fourth place on the run in.
I’m sure that race will have brought him on massively – and I suspect he will be cherry ripe today.

So often with these races, it’s a question of finding the horse that will be at his peak on the day.

Our Duke may ultimately turn out to be the best horse in the race – but his connections will almost certainly be happy if he runs well and sets himself up for the Gold Cup (which is also likely to be run on ground more to his liking).

Killultagh Vic still has to prove he’s of this class – as does Anibale Fly.

And whilst Outlander is an admirable horse – I suspect that a peak form Valseur Lido, is his superior…

Djakadam would definitely be a danger – if back to his best – but the fact that Paul Townend jumps ship to ride Killultagh Vic, is hardly a vote of confidence in him (though I guess it could be construed as such in Killultagh Vic !).

In short, I think Valseur Lido has the class to win this race – and is likely to be primed to deliver his best performance.
In a race where there are question marks over all of his rivals, I think he warrants a decent bet.

4:00 I was hoping that Vieux Morvan might slip under the radar in this – but it’s not happened…
I’d like to blame Pricewise, who tipped him last night – but in truth, he had been found in the market even before then (though that did mean his price was unlikely to drift !).

He caught my eye on his debut for Jospeh O’Brien in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.

The horse jumped from fence to fence that day and had most of his rivals in trouble, when he made a mistake at the second last fence.

That effectively ended his chance –though I suspect he was already running close to empty.

On the back of that run, I thought he would take a bit of beating in the Thystes – I even backed him ante-post for the race.

However, he didn’t run in that contest – instead being saved for today.

That in itself is quite interesting, as todays race is over 3 furlongs shorter – and that is something which could well work in Vieux Morvans favour (I suspect that is what Joseph O’Brien thinks).

Certainly most of his French form was over 2m6f – so there must be a chance that his stamina gave out (as opposed to his fitness) when he ran  in the Paddy Power.

Again, this is a race which doesn’t look quite as deep as numbers suggest…

Hell’s Kitchen was an eye catcher when winning last time at Kempton – but I have my doubts as to whether he will be suited by todays contest (though if he is, he could prove tough to beat).
Sutton Manor is interesting, as the main representative of Gordon Elliott: whilst Couer Joyeux won well last time, and looks a touched over-priced at 18/1.

I should also mention, Dromnea – who I tipped last time (in the Paddy Power chase): and De Benno – because he is most likely to mess things up for Vieux Morvan, if anything does !

That said, I think Vieux Morvan is a well handicapped horse, who is facing ideal conditions.

I might have like a bit more in the price – but if Jospeh/JJ Slevin can do us another favour this afternoon, I won’t complain too much !

Musselburgh

1:25 We Have a Dream looks very much the one to beat in this.

He’s unbeaten in 3 runs in the UK – including the Grade 1 Finale hurdle at Chepstow last time.

He is currently 8/1 second favourite for the Triumph hurdle – but is likely to need a convincing win today, if he is to maintain that position.

Act of Valour looks his biggest danger in the race – and by some margin.

The 2 horses met at Doncaster in December, when Act of Valour was sent off at just 7/4, to come out on top.

However he didn’t run his race that day and was well beaten.

If you just ignore that run, then Act of Valour has to be of interest, particularly as he is 5lb better off at the weights.
Certainly it’s interesting, that Paul Nichols is prepared to take on We Have a Dream again today.

It’s not a race I would consider getting involved with  - but if I did, I would have to side with act of Valour at 5/1…

2:00 Nicky Henderson also saddles the odds on favourite for this, in the shape of Claimantakinforgan.

He’s been sent north in search of better ground – and whilst it won’t be as quick as expected, I doubt that will stop him from winning.

Certainly his last time out victory at Ascot represents better form than any of his rivals can boast – and he still has scope for further improvement
Beyond the Clouds looks the best of his rivals – but I doubt he will be good enough to trouble the favourite…

2:35 Mr Whipped is the third odds on favourite that Nicky Henderson saddles on the card (I think he means business !).

He was a good winner of a Grade 2 novice event at Warwick last time – and should appreciate todays step up in trip.

He is definitely the one to beat – though I was quite taken by Red River when he won at Wincanton, back in October.

He disappointed on his only subsequent run at Sandown in December – but a subsequent wind operation suggests all was not right that day.

If he bounces back to form today, then he could give the favourite something to think about, and is the value call in the race at 9/2.

3:10 Cresswell Legend and Stamp your Feet fought out the finish to a similar race over the course on New Years day – and they again look to 2 to focus on…

Cresswell Legend came out on top by just under a length that day – and is a pound worse off with the runner up.

I would expect the form to be confirmed – and the betting agrees, with Cresswell Legend the 5/2 favourite.

Outside of those 2, there aren’t many to get excited about…

Jump for Dough has been installed third favourite – and does look the one most likely to spoil the reunion.

Though I could have been interested in Calett Mad if Nigel Twiston Davies horses were in better form.

There is actually an eye catcher in the race as well, in the shape of Chain Gang.

He caught the eye on his penultimate run – but that was over fences. However, after a nasty fall last time, he is running over hurdles today.
He’s actually not that badly handicapped over the smaller obstacles and it’s interesting that he is brought over to the UK to race.

However, he was an eye catcher with a view to exploiting a lenient chase rating, so I’ll only be watching him this afternoon.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Leop 3:00 Sutton Place 1.5pt win 10/3

Leop 3:00 Dounikos 0.5pt win 25/1

Leop 3:35 Valseur Lido 2pt win 17/2 (effectively)

Leop 4:00 Vieux Morvan 1pt win 8/1

Mentions

Leop 12:40 Canelie (O )

Leop 2:25 Taglietelle (S )

Muss 1:25 We Have a Dream (O )

Muss 2:35 Red River (O )