Daily write-up - Feb 3rd

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Sandown, Wetherby and Musselburgh in the UK – plus Leopardstown in Ireland.

I get used to manic Saturdays, when there is so much racing taking place that it’s difficult to do it all justice – but today takes things to a new level..!

There are 3 UK meetings – all with televised races – and in truth, they offer more than enough to keep me occupied.

However, all 3 are playing second fiddle to Day 1 of the newly formed Dublin Racing Festival, which takes place at Leopardstown.

It plays host to 7 truly top class races – the likes of which aren’t normally seen before Cheltenham.

The only saving grace for me, is that the card is a mixture of the sublime (the likes of Faugheen, Yorkhill, Footpad etc.) and the ridiculous (a total of 49 runners contesting the 2 handicaps on the card !) – so there were never going to be many tips at the meeting.

It’s very much a meeting to watch, both as a spectacle in its own right – and with a view to pointers for the Cheltenham festival…

So far as the UK cards are concerned, then more of the races are suitable for betting in – and I’ve managed to find a few tips.

Here is the rationale for all of the days tips - plus my thoughts on the other big races (yes, all of them !!)

Leopardstown

1:10 The meeting opens with a Grade 1 contest – though it’s not the strongest one you’ll ever see…

Dortmond Park has been installed a short priced favourite (7/4) – and whilst I was massively impressed with him when he won recently at Thurles, I’m not sure that performance justifies his price in todays race…

He absolutely relished the desperate conditions that day – and I also wonder whether he will have fully recovered from his exertions, as the race was run less than 2 weeks ago…

Second favourite, Fabulous Saga, wants an extreme test (at least 3 miles); and whilst the likes of Carter McKay, Dicey O’Reilly and Jetez, are fair horses – they aren’t yet anything more than that…

In the circumstances, I think it is worth taking a small risk on Tower Bridge.

He’s not yet won over hurdles – but he was a very smart bumper horse – and there was a lot to like about his most recent run at Leopardstown, over Christmas.

That was only in a novice event – but it was a good quality one and despite refusing to settle early, he still battled on well, to finish a close up fourth.

He’ll need to leave that form behind today – but there must be every chance he will do just that.

It certainly strikes me as interesting, that Joseph O’Brien is letting him take his chance in this – and at 33/1, I think he is worth a small play in what looks to be a very winnable race.

1:45 It’s a bit ironic that this race has only got Grade 2 status – as, unlike the opener, it’s got a number of Grade 1 horses contesting it !

Reigning Champion chase winner, Special Tiara, sets the standard - but on ground likely to be softer than he cares for, he should be vulnerable…

However, that will depend on either Min or Yorkhill, putting their best foot forward – which is not absolutely guaranteed to happen…

Both horses are potentially top class – but both have a fair bit to prove.

The former arrives here following a surprise defeat to Simply Ned at Leopardstown over Christmas: whilst the latter, is dropped markedly in trip and is on even more of a recovery mission, following a very poor run in the Lexus Chase (also at Leopardstown over Christmas).

All the uncertainty, makes it a near impossible race to call – even if it should be a fascinating one to watch !

I hope that Yorkhill bounces back and shows his true class – but it’s certainly not guaranteed to happen.

Furthermore, it’s not guaranteed that Min will take advantage, even if Yorkhill doesn’t perform !

If the ground were a bit quicker, then Special Tiara would definitely be worth a risk – but on soft ground, it has to be a watching race (though it should be a riveting one !)

2:20 The second Grade 1 race on the card – and this one looks a bit easier to call…

Footpad has been absolutely sensational on his 2 runs so far, over fences – and whilst Petit Mouchoir was more than his match over hurdles - and was himself very impressive on his chasing debut – he subsequently sustained an injury and is unlikely to be at his peak today.

That’s a shame – as if both horses were in top form, we could be treated to an exceptional race.

In the circumstances however, I suspect that Footpad will run out a comfortable winner – with Petit Mouchoir a comfortable runner up.

That would then set things up nicely for a rematch at Cheltenham (where hopefully, Brain Power will trump them both – well, you can dream can’t you ?!?).

2:55 The first of the days handicaps, sees a field of 20 going to post.

Decent 2 mile handicap chasers, tend to be in short supply in Ireland – so these races, always look winnable.

The tricky bit is finding the right horse, as you are normally faced with a blend of  runners dropping down in trip; plus relatively unexposed animals who might be well handicapped (but equally, might not be !) – plus of course, the proven 2 milers…

That’s a Wrap is the one I was most drawn to – running in his first handicap chase, and potentially well treated, based on his hurdles form.

The issue with him, is that he’s owned by JP McManus – so if this is the ‘plan’ we are not likely to find out until it is too late.

I may still have taken a risk on him at a price – but he was 6/1 yesterday evening – and whilst he has now drifted to 8/1, supporting a McManus drifter in a big field handicap, doesn’t feel like the shrewdest of moves !

Tully East is the other obvious one in the race – but again, he has questions to answer, dropping in trip – and is also plenty short enough in the betting (8/1).

For those who like to play in running, Kilcarry Bridge will likely give it a go from the front – and could trade relatively low, if he manages to slip the field; whilst Some Plan is a ‘traveller’ – and could easily catch the eye of the in running players.

3:30 Arguably, this is the most fascinating race of the whole weekend – due solely to the presence of former Champion hurdler, Faugheen.

At his peak, he looked almost unbeatable – but that was over 2years ago – and whilst he was very impressive on his comeback run at Punchestown in November, he ran no sort of a race at Leopardstown over Christmas.

I must admit, that when I watched him get pulled up that day, I didn’t think we would see him on a racecourse again – yet he’s back on the race course, just over a month later…

Based on his last run, it’s impossible not to have grave reservations about him.

He’s 10 years old now – and whilst I hope I’m wrong, my feeling is that he’s more likely to get pulled up again today, than he is to win.

If he does complete, then he will most likely win – as at his best, he was different class to the horses he faces this afternoon.

The best of those is likely to be Melon – and he ran very well last time in the International hurdle at Cheltenham.

If Faugheen doesn’t perform, then I would expect him to take advantage.

That said, Defi de Seuil could be a danger, if Philip Hobbs has managed to coax him back to his best: whilst if there is to be a real shock, then Supasundae is most likely to cause it.

The trip is too short for him – but if there is significant pace in the race (and Identity Thief may provide it), his stamina could prove decisive in the closing stages.

Again, it’s another race that can only be watched – with so much uncertainty over whether the main protagonists will perform.

It should be another fascinating watch, however…

4:05 With 29 runners, this is arguably the most difficult race of the day to solve – but despite that, I’ve decided to have a go at it !

There are plenty who I don’t think have much of a chance – and I’m taking a couple of relatively unexposed ones against the field…

The first is Boherbouy.
He’s only had 3 runs over hurdles – so really is unexposed ! However, he has also run 7 times on the flat – so hopefully won’t be overly fazed by todays challenge !

He ran a massive race on his most recent run over hurdles, at the Listowel festival, back in September.

He finished third in a good class handicap, on heavy ground – narrowly beaten by Lagostovegas and Davids Charm.

Both of those horses were very well handicapped that day, so it says much for Boherbuoys ability, that he could run them close.

He’s only run once since then – when unplaced on the AW at Dundalk, just before Christmas.
That smacked of being a run to get him spot on for today – and if it has done the trick, then I can see him running a very big race.

The other one I want on side, is Midnight Stroll.

He caught the eye at Leopardstown over Christmas, when finishing fourth behind Minds Eye.

He refused to settle that day – and therefore did really well to ultimately only get beaten 4 lengths.

He’s 6lb better off with the winner today – which should make things tight between the pair – but more importantly, he drops back half a mile in trip.
The likely stronger pace should help him to settle better – and if that is the case, I can also see him running a huge race.

There is actually an eye catcher running in the race, in the shape of Master of Irony.

He caught the eye last time at Newbury, when staying on well.

He has Dickie on board today – and I would expect him to run well.

Others of potential interest, are Tandem, On the Go Again and Tudor City – but it’s that kind of race.

I could easily have had half a dozen stabs at it – but I’ve settled on 2 small ones.

Hopefully I have selected the right horses to side with…

Sandown

1:15 I felt that I should have been able to solve this contest – but I couldn’t !

Top Gamble and Gino Trail shouldn’t be well enough handicapped to win: whilst I would struggle to side with Cepage, whilst Venetia is struggling for form.
I think last time, was the plan for Big Jim – and I don’t expect him to follow up today, off a 6lb higher mark (and in a better race).

I put up Somchine against him last time, and I thought about doing the same again today – but I’m just not sure he has the class for a race such as this.

By elimination, Dolos should be the one – but he may find the ground too soft and also has to handle a drop in trip.

Like I say, a bit too tricky !

Maybe a small speculative play on Somchine, is the best way forward…

1:50 I tipped John Constable for the Champion hurdle, earlier in the week – and this race may give some idea of whether that was a good thing to do !

I say ‘may’ because with only 3 runners – there’s a fair chance it will end up a complete nonsense of a race (particularly as the outsider, has absolutely no form).

The issue will be that both Buveur Dair and John Constable are normally ridden with restraint – as a consequence, I’ve no idea how this will pan out…

The ground is likely to be much too soft for John Constable, so he really shouldn’t pose a threat to Buveur Dair – but in a race like this, anything is possible.

I bet Nicky Henderson/JP are now wishing they declared a pace maker, to prevent the possibility of a complete farce (which is what we could easily end up with).

2:25 Although he’s never faced a fence in public, I want to take a risk on No Comment in this…

As a hurdler, he was a match for all of todays rivals, so if he can jump well – and if he’s sufficiently fit to do himself justice, he could easily be in the mix today.

The fact that he’s even running in this race, just strikes me as interesting...

It’s not Philip Hobbs ‘modus operandi’ to over face his horses – so he clearly thinks a lot of No Comment.

His form from last year suggests he is quite right to.

On his penultimate run at Aintree, he finished second to Fountains Windfall – and if that one had taken up his engagement in this race (he was entered at the 5 day stage), he would likely have been favourite.

My suspicion is that No Comment is running in the race because it is relatively late in the season for him to be going chasing, and connections don’t want to waste his novice status by winning a low grade race.

That said, throwing him into a Grade 1 contest for his chasing debut, is a bold move…
Whether it will pay off, only time will tell – but I think he’s worth a small play, in case their ambition is rewarded.

Of the others, then I think Kalondra is the one to beat.

I was impressed with him last time when he won at Cheltenham, and he has least to prove this afternoon.

That said, at 3/1 in a race containing a few potentially dangerous rivals, he’s not really a betting proposition…

3:00 This is one of those races, were having found half a dozen horse that I could tip, I decided it was probably best if I swerved it !

Top of my list, was Beat That.

He was an eye catcher last time – and I think he’s on a mark that he can win from.
However, this a very competitive race – and I’m not convinced that he will relish the soft ground.
Toofthegame and Melrose Boy are the 2 obvious ones – as unexposed horses on the up.

However, both have been well found in the betting.

Dashing Perk has a similar profile – and he’s not been as well found.

At 11/1, he holds some appeal…

It’s very interesting that Gordon Elliott has sent over Folsum Blue: whilst of those at big prices, Okotoks is the one that interests me most…

So that’s a ‘short list’ of 6 – and I would be far from confident that it contained the winner !

Time to move on…

3:35 Ballydine is the one that interests me most in this – and I did consider tipping him.

He’s an unexposed horse, who is potentially well handicapped, taking on a field of mainly exposed animals.

Certainly, if he had been any sort of a price, I would have taken a risk on him – but 6/1 seemed poor reward in a 12 runner handicap, when you are guessing on the extent of his ability.

In fairness, his last time out third to Acting Lass at Leicester, looks good form – and it’s surprising that he was dropped 4lb on the back of it.

However, there were only 4 runners that day – and he was comfortably beaten, so it’s difficult to be dogmatic about how strong the form actually is.

There is definitely a chance that he will prove to be well handicapped – but there is also a chance that this will be too stiff a test for him…

Of the others, then a case of sorts can be made for most of them.

If the ground is very soft – and provided he’s recovered from a very hard race in the welsh National, then Final Nudge is the one to beat.

However, there is no value in a quote of 5/1.

Holly Bush Henry is potentially well handicapped, over fences – particularly with James Bowen on board: whilst if Sametegal improves for the step up in trip, he would be of major interest.

In truth, it’s not easy to eliminate any of the runners – which is why, once again, I decided to leave the race alone…

Wetherby

1:35 Kayf Blanco caught my eye last time out – and I think he is worth siding with in this.

That race was also at todays course – but over a trip of 2 miles.

I felt that Kayf Blanco should have won that race – but his jumping was a bit too ponderous in the closing stages and ultimately, I felt that cost him the race.

He is stepped up in trip by half a mile today, which should make the jumping easier for him.

On the flip side however, he is unproven at todays trip, so his stamina has to be taken on trust…

If he does last home, then I think he is handicapped to win – although this is quite a competitive race.

Knockgraffon looks the biggest danger.

He was a good winner last time out at Musselburgh – and whilst he has been raised 4lb for that win, has a 7lb claimer in the saddle today.

The issue with him however, is the ground - as it is likely to be softer than he wants…

The ground shouldn’t be an issue for Mercian Prince – but a 7lb rise in the weights for his win at Kempton, might be.

In fairness, I wouldn’t be adamant that will be the case, as he’s a progressive sort – but it’s still a big ask…

Takingrisks, Sam Red and Special Catch, have all got some kind of a chance - but they don’t look as well handicapped as Kayf Blanco.
Hopefully his jumping will be up to scratch and his stamina will last out – because if that is the case, it will take a good one to beat him.

2:40 This is another race which I felt I should have been able to sort out – but couldn’t !

Ballyoptic sets the standard – but it wouldn’t be easy to side with a Nigel Twiston Davies horse at the moment.

Vintage Clouds is probably the one to beat – though he really should be beatable…

That said, I don’t think Captain Chaos will be the one who beats him.

Ami Desbois or Paerl Royale could – though both would need to step up on what they have achieved so far (which is quite possible).

All this said, Shades of Midnight is the one who interests me most, on his debut for Sandy Thompson.

He will have perfect conditions – and was good enough to win this, a couple of years ago.

The trouble is, he’s been in poor form this season – and whilst he may bounce back today, it would take an act of faith to support him.

I might have been tempted to do just that – but he’s running without his usual tongue tie – and there are no other ‘subtle signs’ to persuade me that he’ll be at his peak.

If he’s strong in the late market, I may well get involved with him – but it would need market support for me to be really interested…

Musselburgh

2:05 This is not a race in which I have as strong opinion.

However for completeness (it’s on terrestrial TV), I would be most attracted to Crackdeloust, at the available prices (he’s around 6/1).

His form isn’t as strong as that of a few of his rivals - but he looked as if he may have turned a corner last time, in first time blinkers.

If they work the oracle again, then he may be able to take care of some better fancied rivals.

2:45 I’m taking a bit of a risk on Ink Master in this – but I’m sure he is going to win a race of this nature, sooner rather than later…

In truth, it might not be today: he needs decent ground to be seen at his best, so a lot of rain would mess that up (it’s raining at Musselburgh now – I’m just not sure on the quantity). Furthermore, I would much prefer it if he were guaranteed an uncontested lead – and the removal of Marracudjas hood, means that may not happen.

However, despite those concerns, I still think he is worth  supporting at the odds on offer.

In terms of the positives, then he’s a horse who I’ve been watching all season.

He transferred into the care of Donald McCain at the start of the season and he has gradually been finding his feet for the stable.

He’s been mixing runs over hurdles and runs over fences – and has shown a bit of improvement on every outing.

Last time out at Catterick, he struck me as a horse on the verge of winning.

On ground that would have been far too soft for him, he ran really well until weakening after jumping the third last.

The handicapper has dropped him 4lb for that run – and on quicker ground, over a sharper track (which Musselburgh is) – and with no competition for the lead, I think he would warrant a serious bet.

Unfortunately he may not get all of those conditions, so stakes have to be moderated – but I do still think he is worth supporting at a big price…

In terms of his opponents, then Baby King will be dangerous – if the ground is riding on the soft side: whilst Marracudja is potentially well handicapped, if taking into consideration Bryonys Frosts claim.

That said, so too is Ink Master – and he’s in better form than the numbers against his name suggest !

Hopefully the ground won’t be riding too bad – and if Marracudja does leave him alone in the lead, then I would expect him to run a really big race.

3:15 I think it is worth supporting Full Jack in this.

He ran fourth in the corresponding race 12 months ago – and I suspect he has been targeted at this years renewal.

The 3 horses that finished ahead of him last year, take him on again today – and it should be close between all 4.

Full Jack runs off a mark 4lb lower this afternoon – and whilst he is better off in the  weights with the winner, Dancing Shadow, he is a little worse off with runner up Gonalston Cloud – and meets third placed Azure Fly, on the same terms.

The big difference with Full Jack however, is that he is no longer trained by Pauline Robeson.

Sandy Thompson is now responsible for the horse and he had his first run for him over hurdles at Musselburgh, early last month.

He ran well that day – but it did very much look like a run to get him ready for today…

Blinkers are reapplied – and I’m pretty sure that he will run a really big race.

Whether that will be good enough to get him home in front, only time will tell – but I’m cautiously optimistic !

If he is beaten, then rather than one of his old advisories from last year, I suspect it might be Looking Well who gets the better of him.

He’s a much riskier proposition – but his run in the Sky Bet chase at Doncaster last season, showed that he has a touch of class.

He finished second in that class 1 contest, staying on late, in a way which suggested he would relish todays longer trip.
Following a couple of disappointing runs in the spring, he gets in off the same mark today – and whilst he’s not run for over 200 days, that was the case when he ran at Doncaster, so he is clearly a horse who can go well fresh.
He’s Nicky Richards only runner on the card – and there is a chance that he could prove too classy for Full Jack.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Leop 1:10 Tower Bridge 0.5pt win 40/1

Leop 4:05 Boherbuoy 0.5pt win 25/1

Leop 4:05 Midnight Stroll 0.5pt win 10/1

Sand 2:25 No Comment  0.5pt win 16/1

Weth1:35 Kayf Blanco 1pt win 7/1

Muss 2:45 Ink Master 1pt win 16/1

Muss 3:15 Full Jack 1pt win, 0.5pt place 12/1

Muss 3:15 Looking Well 0.5pt win 11/1

Mentions

Leop 2:55 That’s a Wrap (P )

Leop 3:30 Melon (O )

Sand 1:15 Somchine (S )

Sand 3:00 Beat That (C )

Sand 3:35 Ballydine (P )

Weth 2:40 Shades of Midnight (S )

Muss 2:05 Crackdeloust (O )