Review of the day

The frustrations of the past few weeks continued today – though this time the issue wasn’t with horses not quite winning – it was with me picking the wrong ones to tip !

Reading through the write-up, it’s quite amazing that I didn’t manage to tip a winner – as I correctly narrowed almost all of the days races down to the right 3 or 4 – but somehow, I managed to dodge all of the winners (from a tips perspective).

In fact, I issued 3 tips on the day and non of them went particularly close…

First up was Super Sid.
He was a risky one – and he never featured, running as poorly as he had done on his most recent outing at Chepstow.

The first 3 home were William of Orange, Chti Balco and Spectator – the only 3 others horses in the race that I mentioned in the write-up.

Impressive !

Next it was Behind Time – and a similar story…

His jumping went completely to pot – and he was pulled up before half way.

The race was won the Potters Legend: with Horatio Nelson second and Abracadabra Sivola fourth – 3 of the other 4 that I mentioned in the race.

Again, impressive !

The final tip to run was Milly Baloo.
Again I only mentioned 4 horses in the race – and amazingly, they filled the first 4 places.

Less amazing however, was the fact that Milly Baloo finished fourth (just behind third placed, Sheneededtherun).

With regard to the Mentions, then it was a similar story:

Amber Gambler was the first one to run and whilst I did consider tipping him – I just I couldn’t forgive a poor run last time.

Maybe unsurprisingly, he made me pay for that, with a gutsy win…

Castafiore was restrained in the mares handicap hurdle - and that compromised her chance of winning (and of trading short).
Lamanver Odyssey (who I thought the most likely winner) was first past the post – but subsequently lost the race in the stewards room.

Classic Ben didn’t really feature in the 4:25: though each way fancy, Nautical Nitwit ran on late to take 5^th (which would have been particularly irritating if there hadn’t been a late NR, which meant bookies only paid out on the first 3 !).

Finally, Blameitalonmyroots ran no kind of race in the last.
I was unsure how she’d react to the removal of the cheek pieces  - the answered was not very well !!

Hopefully tomorrow will bring better…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 31st

With Newton Abbot under water, there are just the 2 NH meetings today: at Haydock and Carlisle.

Strange things happen with the fixtures, as the season draws to its close - and whilst today is very quiet for a Saturday, tomorrow is going to be busy (as is Monday !).

One thing that never seems to change however, is the uncertainty over the weather !

I honestly can’t remember the last time, that I had confidence regarding the state of the ground – and it’s the same again today.

After overnight rain, the going at Haydock is described as ‘Soft - Good to Soft in places’ – but with the possibility of more rain prior to the start of racing, I’ll not be surprised if it’s borderline heavy by the off (though I’m guessing !)

The racing at Carlisle isn’t inspiring, so I’ve focused my attention on the Challenger series final day at Haydock.

A card consisting of 7 handicaps, sounded promising – but each of them looks fiendishly difficult to solve – and that’s before uncertainty over the ground, is taken into account.

In the circumstances, deciding which horses to tip was always going to be tricky.

I’ve ended up with just 3 on the day – but a few Mentions as well.

Here’s the rationale for the tips – plus my other thoughts on the card…

Haydock

2:05 Rather surprisingly, Amber Gambler is the only official eye catcher running at Haydock this afternoon (I would have expected quite a few).

And if he’d not run so disappointingly at Doncaster last time, I would almost certainly have tipped him.

Everything looked right for him to put up a really big run that day – but he was disappointing…

The only reason I can suggest, is that he was reappearing just 3 weeks after running really well at Sandown (when he caught the eye).

However, the horse has won on the back of shorter absences in the past, so I feel I’m clutching at straws…

If he is able to recapture his Sandown form, then I would expect him to go close – but if he runs as he did last time, he’ll have no chance…

In truth, even if he recaptures his Sandown form, he should be held by Masterplan – however, as I don’t fancy that one much, it makes it difficult for me to select Amber Gambler !

I would be prepared to oppose favourite, Crievehill, even though he was really impressive last time at Sandown – and a 9lb rise in the weights looks fair.

He was clearly well fancied at Sandown – and on a very different track I wouldn’t want to take a short price on him performing at the same level.

I prefer the chance of Creep Desbois, who was a little unfortunate not to collect at Leicester last time.
He strikes me as the most likely race winner – but a price of 3/1 in a relatively open  contest, holds very little appeal.

2:40 I think it is worth taking a small chance on Super Sid in this.

He is just about the least experienced runner in the field, having only raced 3 times over hurdles (and 5 times in his life).

However, he has already shown himself capable of useful form – and obviously still has plenty of scope for improvement.

He was a game winner on his hurdling debut at Southwell – and would have gone close to following up, if he’d not made a complete mess of the final flight, at Market Rasen.

He ended up finishing fourth that day – but looked like the second best horse in the race.

His only other run was his most recent, when he made his handicap debut at Chepstow.

He was quite well fancied for that race (9/2 joint second favourite) – but ran an absolute shocker.

I’ve no idea what happened there - but he was beaten half a mile from home and I think it can be filed in the ‘too bad to be true’ tray…

On the upside, that run means he’s a much bigger price today, than would otherwise have been the case - and that therefore makes him worth a small risk.

I find it interesting that Noel Fehily is in the saddle this afternoon – even thought Tom George’s stable jockey, Adrian Heskin is riding at Haydock (and rides Georges other runners on the card).

If you being harsh, you could blame Heskin for the final flight blunder which cost Super Sid his chance at Market Rasen – so maybe his connections feel the horse would benefit from a change.

Whatever, it strikes me as a positive move – and I always prefer to side with horses whose connections have taken some action to try and improve things.

Of the others, then the McCain pair, Chti Balco and William of Orange, both look potentially dangerous – though both all like to lead (which they won’t both be able to do).

Spectator is the other one that interests me.

He seems to be gradually getting the hang of hurdling – and is potentially well handicapped based on his flat form.
However, he shouldn’t really be able to beat William of Orange, based on their run at Wetherby back in November…

3:15 Behind Time was a good winner at Uttoxeter a fortnight ago and I think he is worth backing to follow up this afternoon.

I said before he ran last time, that there was no doubting he was potentially very well handicapped – it was simply a case of getting him to put it all in.

And the application of cheek pieces for the first time seemed to do the trick that day, as he battled well to get the better of the talented Big River.

Unsurprisingly, the aids are retained today – and hopefully they will be as effective second time.

He got a 7lb rise for the win – but I suspect he is capable of defying that.

There are 2 things which pushed me in to tipping Behind Time this afternoon.

Firstly, he is the only ride on the day, for Barry Geraghty – and more than that, Barry has come over specifically to ride him (he’s back in Ireland, riding at Cork, tomorrow afternoon).

Secondly, there is a lot of potential pace in the race – and that will suit Behind Time (who likes to have a lead). Furthermore, it obviously won’t suit a few of his rivals !

That said, it is quite a tough looking race…

Potters Legend is handicapped to win (but that’s been the case for a few races now !): whilst I thought Private Malone ran particularly well last time (but he’s one of the potential pace horses).

Abracadabra Sivola was a horse I’d been waiting for – but managed to miss last time, when connections decided they would go for it.

He’s still potentially well handicapped, even after that win – but that race was particularly poor – and he only just got home in front.

Horatio Hornblower is probably the one I fear most – as he gets to run off the same mark as last time, when just edged out by Pete the Feat.

However, that’s probably as good as he is – whereas Behind Time still has plenty of scope for improvement.

3:50 I was half tempted by Castafiore in this…

Certainly I think she will run well, in conditions that will suit her admirably.

She was an impressive winner on her penultimate run at Uttoxeter, when 5lb claimer, Paul O’Brien rode his rivals to sleep, from the front.

However, she was raised 10lb for that win – and wasn’t able to repeat the trick next time, in a much hotter contest.

She has been eased 2lb for that run – and todays race isn’t anywhere near as strong.

I’m pretty sure that O’Brien will again try to make all – and with few rivals for the lead, I can certainly see her running well.

Whether he will be able to get her home in front however, is a different matter.
There is a long home straight at Haydock – and she is likely to be a suiting duck for much of it.

Rather than tip her to win, my inclination will be to back her pre-race - and then lay off in running (for a profit or a free bet).

As for the most likely race winner: then I think that is Lamanver Odyssey – but she makes limited appeal at 5/1 in a race where it is not possible to get a proper handle on a number of her rivals.

4:25 This is possibly the hardest race on the card to unravel – and I’m disinclined to try too hard !

If the ground had been quicker, I would have been quite keen on Fingerontheswitch.

He is potentially very well handicapped - and has been running better than his form figures imply.
However, he has a preference for decent ground (and he’s not going to get that).

In the circumstances, I would therefore opt for Classic Ben as the most likely winner – but it would be with limited confidence (certainly not sufficient to consider tipping him).

Of the others, then whilst Nautical Nitwit lacks scope, he is capable of running in to a place – and therefore might not be a bad EW bet at 20/1.

Whilst Zeroshadesofgrey is the only confirmed front runner in the field and therefore may make a good pre-race back to lay in running (the only proviso being, that he is running over a longer trip than normal, so there is a chance he could be ridden with restraint in an attempt to preserve his stamina).

On balance, probably a race best watched !!
 

5:00 I’m quite keen on Milly Baloo in this, as it strikes me she’s been targeted at the race…

She would have won on her penultimate outing at Catterick, if she hadn’t run out, approaching the final fence.

Obviously, that’s puts a slight question mark against her temperament – and I think it very interesting that connections have opted to put Danny Cook in the saddle this afternoon (I can’t see him taking kindly to such behaviour !).

In fairness, she showed no wayward tendencies on her only subsequent run – when second at Market Rasen, 3 weeks ago.
That run was over hurdles ,which also strikes me as interesting, as it suggests that connections wanted to preserve a decent chase mark, whilst still getting a run into her.

Certainly, she is not badly handicapped, based on the Catterick run – particularly as the form of the race was boosted by the eventual winner Same Circus following up at Bangor (where she beat Rons Dream).

I’m familiar with most of her rivals – and whilst I respect the chances of Rons Dream and Socksy, I’m hopeful Milly Ballo will have their measure.

For those of you feeling particularly adventurous, then a forecast with Sheneededtherun, might hold some appeal.

The 2 horses are quite closely matched on 2 pieces of form – and whilst I fancy Milly Ballo more, wherever she finishes, Sheneededtherun shouldn’t be far away…

5:35 This is another very trappy race in which I don’t have a particularly strong opinion…

Talk of the South goes in search of a hattrick, having previously looked incapable of ever winning !

His price is on the drift – and if it goes beyond 5/1, he would become of some interest…

Blameitalonmyroots is the other I was half interested in, with a 7lb claimer in the saddle – but the removal of cheek prices which have been worn for her last 2 runs, may not be a positive move.

Kilcullen Flam has a chance – but so too, do virtually all of the runners…

Another race which is probably best watched !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Hayd 2:40 Super Sid 0.5pt win 12/1

Hayd 3:15 Behind Time 1pt win 9/2

Hayd 5:00 Milly Baloo 1pt win 11/1

Mentions

Hayd 2:05 Amber Gambler (S )

Hayd 3:50 Castafiore (O )

Hayd 4:25 Classic Ben (O )

Hayd 5:35 Blameitalonmyroots (O )

Review of the day

It’s funny how ‘luck’ seems to go in cycles…

February was just about the best month the service has ever had.

7 winners from 26 tips, suggests that luck was smiling on us (even if it didn’t always feel that, with a further 5 seconds !).

However, the Beast from the East then struck – and as well as the snow, it seems it took away all of the good fortune.

I mentioned yesterday, that I’d managed to tip a horse every Saturday in March, that had traded odds on – and got beaten.

Well, I didn’t manage to do that today – but we did get to see some of the other guises that mis-fortune can appear in !

As you probably picked up from the write-up, I was very keen on Theatre Guide today.
I liked how strong he was in the pre-race market - and therefore couldn’t believe it when he barely lifted a leg at the very first fence and paid the price.

I’m sure he would have gone close if he had jumped round – but alas, you’ll have to take my word on that !

We did have a saver in the race, in the shape of Sego Success – but he wasn’t as strong in the market and ran disappointingly…

There was no obvious reason for his poor effort – I guess they aren’t machines…

Not the best of races…

And yet, arguably not the worst race on the day – at least from the perspective of the tips !

Salmanazar was the other tip on the day – and again, I was reasonably optimistic about his chance.

However, I was feeling far less optimistic, about 2 seconds into the race !

Following a false start, the runners lined up on the tape – but the starter didn’t get things quite right and Salmanzar reared as the tape went up.

Charlie Deutsch nearly came off – and the horse lost at least half a dozen lengths in the incident.

It therefore says much for his ability, that he was only beaten around 4 lengths into second place, at the line.

Again, it’s only possible to imagine how things might have ended if events had panned out differently.

I’ve said it hundred times before – but you always need a bit of luck in this game – and unfortunately, this afternoon illustrated that point perfectly !

As for the Mentions, then not a lot went right for them either !

Turning Gold ran like a horse still feeling the effects of a hard race, a week ago.
That said, the race ended up a bit of a farce, with Eragon de Chaney backed into favouritism – and then gifted a big lead.

He was eventually run down by Malaya – but that kind of thing still leaves a bit of a taste.

Tom Scudamore rode a nice race on Valhalla, leading at a very sedate pace.
It nearly paid off, as well – with both Happy Diva and Adrian du Pont making serious jumping mistakes.

However, both survived – and ultimately were much too good for him.

I’ve no idea how Beau Bay managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory – but he did.

He looked to have the race won jumping the last, but was worn down by Ashoka in the shadows of the post, having touched 1.04 in running (at least I didn’t tip him !)

Finally, Undressed was a massive drifter at Downpatrick, which made little sense.

His SP was 12/1 – but his BSP was over 20 !

It all looked very suspicious when he started at the back of the field – and was soon under pressure.

In fairness, he ran a reasonable race, plugging on into fifth – though without ever looking likely to win.

Again, the race left a bit of a taste…

All in all then, not the best of days – and not the best of weekends.

Hopefully next weekend will be better…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 25th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Ascot and Carlisle in England – plus Downpatrick in the north of Ireland…

It’s a similar situation to yesterday.
The main meeting at Ascot is quite decent – and there are 3 or 4 races, which lend themselves to betting/tipping.

Things aren’t quite so good at the other 2 meetings however – with only the Ulster National on the Downpatrick card, holding any appeal, from a betting perspective.

Such is life…

There is a slight question mark in my mind regarding the state of the ground at Ascot.
It’s officially soft - but there has been minimal rain during the past 24 hours – and things can dry quickly at this time of year.

I’m hoping it will be on the soft side of good, rather than edging towards heavy.

Time will tell !

I’ve ended up with 3 tips on the day – both at Ascot – with 2 in the same race.

Here is my rationale for them – plus my thoughts on a few of the days other races…

Ascot

2:35 Based purely on form I think Turning Gold is the one to beat in this.

He won the Victor Ludorum hurdle at Haydock, last month - and followed that up with a fine fifth in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.

Somewhat bizarrely he’s been dropped 2lb for that run – and that makes him look very well handicapped.

The issue of course, is that his run at Cheltenham was only 11 days ago – and he had a hard race.

Whether he can bounce back from it and produce his best this afternoon, is anyones guess.

The betting is suggesting he can, as he’s been backed in from 6/1 to 7/2 – but the reality is, nobody will know for sure, until it is too late…

Based on the Cheltenham run, he should have the beating of Eragon de Chany, as that one finished behind him – but is 5lb worse off today.

Knights Destroyer also ran in the race – but got no further than the second flight.

On the plus side, he won’t have taken much out of himself: on the minus side, it’s always risky backing a horse following a fall…

The market is headed by Malaya – but she comes with risks.

Whilst the form of her second to Redicean at Kempton looks good – she was well beaten that day and something had to finish second !

She is also quite small, to be carrying top weight…

City Dreamer is possibly more interesting.

He is closely matched with Malaya on early season running at Wetherby and he might be better suited to today conditions, than the mare…
The final one of interest is Comrade Conrad – though you have to be prepared to excuse a disappointing run last time, at Taunton.

On balance, it’s too tricky a race to get involved with, as a lot will depend on whether the main protagonists are in peak form.

If he’s recovered from his Cheltenham efforts, then Turning Gold is the most likely winner: with City Dreamer a slightly safer option.

3:10 Based on official ratings, then Adrian du Pont should win this.

He is rated 8lb superior to Happy Diva and 15lb superior to Valhalla.
Happy Diva receives 4lb from him – but should still have her work cut out to beat him: whilst, Valhalla has to give him 3lb, which in theory means he has no chance !

However, 3 horse races are often tactical affairs, in which the form book can be thrown out of the window.

Adrian du Pont likes to lead, so that should make things simple for him – however it might also make him a sitting duck.
Whether either of his rivals will be able to take advantage, is likely to depend on whether Harry Cobden gets his fractions right.

Sam Twiston Davies didn’t the last time he ran at Ascot and the horse was out on his feet, up the home straight.

I’m sure they will have learnt from that – but it would make you nervous about taking odds of 4/6 on him.

In fact, if I were to get involved in the race, I would likely take a punt on Valhalla.

He managed to come out on top in a 3 horse race on his latest run – even though the market didn’t expect him to.

I think a small field suits him, as he’s quite a quirky character.

It’s not something I would consider tipping though – so officially speaking, this is just a watching race…

3:45 This is a tricky looking race – and not one that I have a particularly strong opinion on.

Diego de Charmil is favourite - and he certainly has sufficient class to defy his current rating of 143.

However, he needs decent ground, which he may – or may not – get this afternoon.

If I were to get involved with the race, it would be with Beau Bay.

I was quite impressed with him at Hereford last time.

That was only a class 3 contest – but it struck me as quite a strong one.

He was second past the post that day – but was subsequently given the race in the stewards rooms.

He’ll need to step up this afternoon, if he is to take this – but that may happen…

That said, Vocaliser and Maestro Royal have both got a chance: whilst outsiders Darebin and Ashoka can’t be rules out with complete confidence.

With no real angle into the race, it has to be another one to watch…

4:20 I’m quite keen on Theatre Guide in this – and the dryer it gets, the keener I’ll become !

Part of the attraction, is that this is his first run in a veterans chase – and he’s taking on rivals who have all been competing in those contests.

As you all know, I do love my veterans chases – but the reality is, they are not quite as strong as open handicaps.

Consequently, this is effectively a bit of a step down in grade for Theatre Guide.

In fairness, based on his 2 most recent runs, he needs to step down !

However, he would have hated the heavy ground on his penultimate run in the Cotswold chase at Cheltenham: and his stable was badly out of form, when he last ran in the old Racing Post chase at Kempton.

Colin Tizzard has his string in much better form now – and Theatre Guide has been dropped 3lb (which enables him to get into this contest).

He is now running off the same mark that he won from at Cheltenham, just over 12 months ago.

The question is, how much has he deteriorated since then…

My feelings that he hasn’t deteriorated significantly – certainly his first time out run this season, when third in the Badger Ales trophy at Wincanton, was up with the best runs of his career.

If that is the case – then provide the ground isn’t too soft – I think he could prove too classy for todays rivals…

If he is in decline – and the race goes to one of the more established veterans, then I think it will be Sego Success.

He finished third to Band of Blood in a similar race at Doncaster last time, but must have every chance of reversing that form on 7lb better terms.

That’s also ignoring the fact that Band of Blood has subsequently run at Cheltenham – and todays will be his fourth race in just over a month (which strikes me as too many).

Of the others, then I wouldn’t completely dismiss either No Duffer or Fox Appeal – and I’m likely to save stakes on them at very big odds, just in case !

4:55 Salmanazar finished second in this race 2 seasons ago – and I think he’s got a good chance of going a place better this afternoon, from a mark 7lb lower…

He’s actually only run twice since that effort – both times this season.
Clearly something hasn’t been right with him, and I suspect connections have been bringing him back gradually,

There wasn’t too much to take from his debut run at Huntingdon in January: but he performed much better last time, when fourth at Chepstow.

I would expect that run to have put him spot on for today – and over a trip and course which he clearly likes, then off a decent mark, he should go very close…

The big danger looks to be Samuel Jackson.

He’s only run 3 times over hurdles: winning the first 2 and then running a creditable third in a Grade 2 event at Doncaster.

His opening mark of 137 looks reasonable - but it’s very difficult to accurately judge.

The winner of the Doncaster race did nothing for the form, when running at Cheltenham, so it may not have been the strongest of contests (it really is very hard to say).

Top Ville Ben and Ballyhague Bay are likely to put the pace to the race (and lots of it !) – however, the fact that both like to lead, is not really good news for either of them (for what it’s worth, I think Top Ville Ben will win that particular battle).

Sir Will is the other one of interest – but his mark was raised 5lb for a defeat at Warwick – and I never like that…

On balance, I’d prefer to be with Salmanazar – accepting that Samuel Jackson may be capable of improving past him.

Downpatrick

3:55 If the bookmakers were playing ball, Undressed would probably be a tip in this…

Betfair says he should be around 10/1 – and that would be quite acceptable.

However, the bookmarks are offering no more that 7/1 (even at 11:00) – and that’s a bit too short.

He ran really well in a veterans chase at Wexford last Saturday, chasing home the very talented Sumos Novios.

That was only 8 days ago, which is a concern – but if he can replicate the run, he must go close this afternoon.

He’ll have no issue with the trip either – and that’s not the case for all of his rivals.

Chief amongst them is Poormans Hill…
He represents Gordon Elliot and Jack Kennedy – and for that reason alone, has to be feared.

In fairness to him however, he also has form in the book, which gives him every chance – and again, he should cope fine with the trip.

Dinnies Vinnie isn’t as sure to get home – but if he does, he will go close; whilst Out Sam isn’t guaranteed to run his race – but is handicapped to go close if he does.

The same is also true of Wounded Warrior.

He was runner up in the Thystes 2 runs back – but has badly disappointed since.
He’s certainly not one you could trust – but he has the ability to go very close.

More than that, he can actually be backed at 20/1 – which is a fair price (unlike the one on offer for Undressed !).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Asc 4:20 Theatre Guide 1.5pt win 6/1

Asc 4:20 Sego Success 0.5pt win 5/1

Asc 4:55 Salmanazar 1pt win 9/1

Mentions

Asc 2:35 Turning Gold (C )

Asc 3:10 Valhalla (S )

Asc 3:45 Beau Bay (O )

DwnP 3:55 Undressed (P )

Review of the day

For the third consecutive Saturday, I managed to tip a horse which traded odds on in running – and got beaten…

In truth, I’m a little surprised that Oscar Rose went as short as 1.83 – but she did, on the run between the final 2 flights.

In fairness, I felt she was going to go very close at that point – but her stamina then started to fade, on the very soft ground, and ultimately she finished well beaten.

Coologue didn’t do quite so well in the Newbury opener – though he looked to be travelling nicely enough heading out on the final circuit.

However, once headed he soon capitulated and it would appear that his physical issues still remain…

It was a little frustrating to watch Thomas Patrick win the race, as he was the solid option.

However, I felt that his price this morning, was little too short.

At the returned SP of 5/1, I may have had a dilemma – but that wasn’t an option when I was tipping…

Most of the days Mentions ran well – with Tiquer the high-light/low-light !

I got very close to tipping him – but just felt he was maybe punching a little above his weight.

However, as I suggested this morning, the race took little winning – and in conditions that suited him admirably, he was a worthy victor.

He was 16/1 this morning – but an SP of 9/1 suggested I wasn’t the only one who half fancied him…

Earlier on the Newbury card, Ostrakh le Noir probably should have won the juvenile hurdle.

He was almost certainly the best horse in the race – but he was far too keen – and then couldn’t recover from a mistake at the final flight.

Credit to Mister Chow for holding him off on the run in – though I’m not sure the form would be upheld if the pair were to re-oppose.

Mystifiable ran an odd race in the closing contest.

Up with the pace early, he lost his place down the back straight – but then swept into the lead turning in.

However, it didn’t look like great pace distribution – and I wasn’t overly surprised to see him weaken out of things after jumping the second last.

I stand by my comment that he would be better over 2m4f on decent ground – and with a few pounds off his back for todays run, he could well be on a winning mark, next time.

Over at Bangor, Rons Dream looked like she had won the mares chase when moving into the lead, approaching the last – but she hadn’t fully seen off Same Circus and that one rallied on the run in and eventually won with a bit in hand.

Finally, whilst I was right to oppose Rosmus Relay in the handicap hurdle – I chose the wrong one to side with.

In fairness, King of Fashion didn’t run badly – but he was left behind when the pace quickened rounding the home turn.

He’s another one who could be of interest next time, however…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 24th

There are just the 3 NH meetings today: at Newbury and Bangor in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

It’s amazing to think that it’s only just over a week, since the Cheltenham festival.

Watching and studying the racing yesterday, everything felt completely different – it was almost as if a new season had begun..!

I guess in part, that was down to the quicker ground – though overnight rain at Newbury is likely to have sorted that out (some things never change !)

I certainly felt that I needed to adjust my perspective – and needless to say, that makes me a little nervous about getting too carried away with tips !

In truth, that was never really a danger.

Opportunities away from Newbury are minimal – and even at Newbury, there are only 3 or 4 races, which lend themselves to tipping.

As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just a couple of tips on the day – and I suspect it will be similar story tomorrow.

Just a quick mention, for those of you who don’t frequent the forum, for the latest TVB Day at the Races…

It will take place 2 weeks today – Saturday April 7^th – at Stratford.

There are around 5 Definites, so far – and the more the merrier !

It would certainly be nice to see a few new faces  in attendance…

If you are interested, please post accordingly on the thread, so I’ve got an idea of numbers…

Anyway, on to today – and the rationale for the tips – plus my thoughts on a few of the other races…

Newbury

2:05 This looks a very open race and it won’t surprise me too much, whatever wins…

Amore Alato has been installed favourite on his first run for Dan Skelton – and there can be little doubt that he is well handicapped, if he recovers the best of his old form.

However, I’m not sure that Newbury will particularly suit him – and Dan Skelton has been struggling for form, for a little while.

On balance, I think he is worth opposing…

Coologue is the other one that really interests me - and he is sufficiently big price to take a risk.

Like Amore Alato, he is potentially very well handicapped, running from a mark 7lb lower than when successful on his debut, last season.

He’s a horse who tends to run best fresh, so the fact he’s been off the track for nearly 2 months, is a positive.

What isn’t quite so positive, is how he ran last time – which was very disappointingly !

However, he’s been given a wind op since then – and if that has the desired effect, he could prove hard to catch.

He’s never won at Newbury – but it’s a track that should suit him well.

When on form, he’s an aggressive front runner – and Newbury lends itself well to those tactics.

I find it very interesting to see that Aidan Coleman is in the saddle today – despite the fact that Charlie Longsdons stable jockey, Johnny Burke, is at the track.

Coleman has a very good record for Longsdon, so his booking could be significant.

I suspect we’ll know our fate pre-race, as if the horse is going to run well, I would expect it to be well backed.

Of the others, then Thomas Patrick is the solid option in the race – particularly with his trainer, Tom Lacey, in such good form.

I can also see an argument for Bells N Banjos – though like Coologue, he will need to bounce back to form after a couple of disappointing runs.

2:40 It’s hard to look beyond Oistrakh Le Noir in this – but equally, hard to back him, at 6/4…

In truth, he has the potential to be much better than his mark – but it is just potential at the moment and that makes his price tight enough.

That said, non of his rivals boast particularly strong form, so I have a feeling that he won’t need to be world beater, in order to come home in front.

He has very strong connections – and was one of the market leaders for last weeks Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, but didn’t make the cut.

If he was going to go close in that race, then he is likely to win this comfortably…

Of his rivals, then Nigh or Never is possibly the most interesting – particularly as there were hints yesterday, that Rebecca Curtis might be returning to form.

However, a NR this morning means that just 7 runners will go to post – so even each way options are limited.

All in all, a watching race, I think…

3:15 Despite this looking a very competitive race, I’m quite keen on Oscar Rose.

She has already run against many of todays rivals, at some point in the past 12 months, and is handicapped to beat them all.

She finished 4 lengths in front of Petticoat Lane in a bumper at Aintree last season – and is 3lb better of with her today.

On her hurdling debut at Chepstow is October, she was beaten by If You Say Run, Just A Thought and Roksana – but is sufficiently better off at the weights with all 3 today, to suggest she should come out on top.

She should also be able to reverse her Ludlow defeat by Sunshade in Novemebr, on over stone better terms:

Whilst she had finished ahead of Kalahari Queen and Black Tulip – and is weight to confirm the form with both of them.

In short, from a pure handicapping perspective, she is the most likely winner.

More than that however, she has looked unlucky not to finish closer in quite a few (most !) of her races…

Last time out, a slipped saddle cost her dear; whilst the time before, she was stuck in traffic at Doncaster.

Even the Chepstow run, saw her staying on is really taking fashion, when it was all too late.

I guess that todays big field might not help – but Newbury is a very fair course with a particularly long straight, so hopefully Paddy Brennan will be able to ensure she can do herself justice.

One I am a little wary of, is Jet Set.

She’s trained by Charlie Longsdon and he has an excellent record in the race.

She is also relatively unexposed.

If I could be sure that 16 would go to post (ie. 4 places) then I would tip her EW at 20/1.

However, there is a strong possibility that there will be a withdrawal at some point, ad that will mess up place terms.

Maybe keep an eye on things and get involved with her, close to the off, if circumstances are right.

3:50 I was quite keen on Sametegal in this - but he was withdrawn, early this morning.
In his absence, Virgilio looked the most likely winner – but he was taken out of the race a couple of hours later.

Therefore, we now have a contest with no obvious winner !

I certainly wouldn’t be keen to side with Seeyouatmidnight, as he’s unlikely to be given a hard race, as this is primarily his prep for the Grand National.
Equally, Kayf Adventure makes limited appeal, having run in a tough race at the Cheltenham festival, just over a week ago…

The rain could well have spoilt the ground for both Cold March and Plaisir D’Amour (though if it isn’t too soft, I suspect one of them will win): whilst generally, I’m inclined to oppose northern raiders at southern tracks (so that eliminates Pain Au Chocolat).

As a consequence, I got very close to tipping outsiders Dusky Lark and Tiquer (to minimum stakes).

Neither has rock solid credentials – but both can be given a chance in what looks a winnable race…

Certainly, the application of first time cheek pieces on the former: and a wind op for the latter, nearly pushed me over the edge: however, neither one is really sufficiently well handicapped to win a race of this nature (plus Tiquer could be running out of his grade).

On balance then, tempting as it was, I decided just to make it a watching race…

5:35 This is another tight race, in which a chance can be given to most of the runners…

If forced, I would side with Mystifiable – as I think he can win from his current mark.

However, I’m not completely convinced by the drop back to 2 miles: whilst he would prefer good ground (though I guess the 2 could cancel each other out – stamina wise).

Imperial Presence is the other one of particular interest – particularly as he won the corresponding race 12 months ago, from a mark just 1lb lower.

That said, he’s been absent since May and Philip Hobbs has been in poor form this season – so I’d be disinclined to get too heavily involved at a price of 3/1.

Get Rhythm definitely has a chance: as too, has Big Jim.

Exmoor Mist is likely to look as if he has a chance – but probably won’t get home.

And whilst Ut Majeur Aulmes and Rock on Rocky are both out of form – they are well enough handicapped to go close, if they happened to bounce back…

As is so often the case, I suspect this is a race where the market will reveal the winner, close to the off.
I’m just not sure which one it will be !

Bangor

2:15 Rons Dream is handicapped to win this – provided the ground is soft enough and her jumping stands the test.

Her mark of 130 enables her to sneak into the race – and she really should be a bit too classy for the rivals she faces today.

She’s won, over hurdles, off a higher mark – and whilst she’s yet to prove herself quite as good over fences, I don’t see any reason why that shouldn’t be the case.

Her task is made easier this afternoon, by the fact that non of her rivals is particular progressive.

Sparkling River could prove to be the best of them – but whilst she is a really honest mare, she is also a relatively limited one…

I think this is Rons Dreams race to lose – and arguably she is not a bad bet at 3/1.

3:25 I expected Rosmuc Relay to be put in very short for this (around 5/2) – and if that had been the case, I might have looked to take him on.

However, he’s weak in the market – and is only just favourite.

I find that a bit surprising, as he’s got the kind of profile that normally gets over-bet (progressive novice, stepping up in trip for his handicap debut).

Carspindle is very strong against him in the market – and certainly the form of her last time out win at Chepstow, looks good n the context of todays race.

I would expect her to run a big race.

I would be less adamant that King of Fashion will run a big race – though he is the one who I would have tipped, if I had got involved in the race.

He was sent off at just 7/1 on his most recent outing, in a 17 runner class 1 handicap at Sandown.

That was on his debut for Kerry Lee – and he never featured - but clearly, some one expected him to go close.

He will find todays contest far easier – and a wind op in the interim, suggests he may have had a breathing issue.

He’s undoubtedly risky – but at the right price, he could be worth a chance.

I’m not sure exactly what the price should be (he’s a 7/1 shot).

I had hoped that Rosmuc Relay would skew the market – but that’s not happened.
As a consequence, I’ll just be watching him – but if he does drift to double figures, I’m likely to get involved.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Newb 2:05 Coologue 0.5pt win 14/1

Newb 3:15 Oscar Rose 1pt win 7/1

Mentions

Newb 2:40 Ostrakh le Noir (P )

Newb 3:15 Jet Set (C )

Newb 3:50 Tiquer & Dusky Lark (S )

Newb 5:35 Mystifiable (C )

Bang 2:15 Rons Dream (C )

Bang 3:25 King of Fashion (S )

Review of the day

I feel we’ve had a few close ones go against us recently…

Bentley de Mee last Saturday and Ms Parofis on Tuesday, both traded heavily odds on in-running – and got beaten: and Hitherjacques Lady went even shorter in-running today, but again came out second best.

It’s obviously frustrating when it happens – but we had a good run with the close finishes earlier in the season, and these things do even out (eventually !)

I wasn’t surprised to see Hitherjacques Lady run so well.
She was very strong in the betting, sent off at 5/1, having been double that earlier.

I was more surprised that it was Clyne who got the better of her.

He had a lot of weight to carry – but there is no substitute for class and he relished the conditions.

Bentelimar was the only other tip on the day.

He travelled beautifully for the first two thirds of the race – but then found nothing when the pressure applied.

Maybe he was chasing too strong a pace (the early leaders both faded badly, late on): or maybe he doesn’t quite stay 2m4f.

It’s difficult to know.
All I do know is that he ultimately finished well beaten !

In terms of the Mentions:

Then things panned out pretty much as I expected, for Kayf Blanco, at Kempton.

He ran a good race – but wasn’t quite quick enough and could only finished second.
The problem he’ll have, is that he’ll be edged up the weights again, for not winning…

Also at Kempton, Just a Sting disappointed, whilst Kildisart bounced back to form (it clearly can pay to have a forgiving nature !)

Over at Uttoxeter, it was similar story, with Another Venture disappointing and Behind Time finally coming good (even though he wasn’t excessively backed).

Finally, in the Midlands Grand National, The Artful Cobbler couldn’t match strides with the more experienced Milansbar, and in trying to do so, his jumping fell apart.
Regal Flow was the one who took advantage – but to be honest, if I’d had a dozen picks in the race, I don’t think I would have got him…

Maybe I need a few days off 

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 17th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Uttoxeter, Kempton and Fontwell in the UK – plus Wexford in Ireland.

After the mayhem of the past 4 days, it’s back down to earth with a bump today !

That said, the post Cheltenham ‘bump’ is not as big as it used to be.

Both Uttoxeter and Kempton have made efforts over the past few years, to help ease us more gently, back into normality – and both courses have put on fair cards, this afternoon.

I’m not a great fan of a 4 day festival – but I do remember how horrible the Friday use to be, when it was only 3 days ! (and the Saturday didn’t tend to be much better either !)

On different matters: you will all have seen that I experienced a few email issued during the festival (great timing !).

From what I can work out, Google has started to view my tip messages (or more accurately, any short messages I send), as Spam.

I’ve no idea why it has just started to happen, when I’ve been sending such messages for over 5 years – but it has.

Anyway, as a short-term fix, I will send the tips from a back-up email address (TVB.Alerts).

Longer term, I may opt to post the tips in the forum.

You can then set things up, so that the forum automatically emails you when they are posted.

.

I’ll probably limp through to the end of the season using the TVB.Alerts email though – as it’s simplest !

As for today, I’ve just ended up with a couple of small tips (both of whom are eye catchers) – and I’ve limited my preview to 6 races (all of which are on terrestrial TV).

So relatively speaking, an easy day !

Here’s the rational for the tips – plus my other thoughts…

Kempton

2:05 There is an eye catcher running in this race, in the shape of Kayf Blanco.

He caught my eye on his penultimate run at Wetherby, when he was little unlucky not to win.

I tipped him that day (!) and despite a number of ponderous leaps, he still looked likely to win, jumping the last.

However, he was squeezed up by a couple of his rival on the run in and ultimately beaten neck into third pace.

He was also beaten neck on his most recent run, by Favorito Bucks, at todays track.

His jumping was a bit better last time (suggesting he is improving) – but his main rival just got away from the last quicker than him, and he couldn’t quite reel him back.

It was still a good effort – but he’s gone up 2lb in the handicap for it.

That’s in addition to the 2lb rise he got for the Wetherby run…

Despite that, I don’t think he’s handicapped out of things today – but I do think he may struggle with the drop back to 2 miles.

It’s likely to put a bit too much emphasis on quick jumping – which isn’t his main asset.

That said, it’s not an overly strong race, so he definitely has a chance – however, odds of 11/4, with the trip doubts, don’t really entice me…

2:40 This is the first of 2 consolation races on the card, for horses which were balloted out of Cheltenham handicaps (in this case, hurdle races).

Just a Sting and Azzerti are the 2 that interest me most – but unfortunately they are first and second favourite.

The former is having his first run in a handicap – and has decent novice form: whilst the latter beat Mr Antolini last time, and he went on to take the Imperial Cup, last Saturday…

Of the 2, I slightly prefer the chance of Just a Sting – but so does the market and I can see no value in a price of 9/2 in what is quite a competitive race…

Of the others, then Kildisart would be interesting – if you are prepared to ignore a disappointing effort last time: whilst I could also see Django Django running well.
What I can’t see however, is a decent angle into the race from a betting perspective !

3:15 I quite like the look of Bentelimar in this.

He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Huntingdon in January, when he gave Terrefort a bit of a scare.

That one won the grade 1 Scilly Isles novice chase on this next outing – and was runner up in the JLT at the festival on Thursday.

Bentelimar was trying to give him 4lb at Huntingdon, so was clearly facing an impossible task.

Bentelimar has only had one subsequent outing – when getting turned over at odds of 4/6, in a 3 horse race at Catterick.

However, that was on desperate ground – and the form of small field races can be mis-leading.

Under more suitable conditions today, I expect him to run very well.

As you would expect, this is quite a competitive race – and most of his rivals can be given a chance of sorts.

Tom Goerge runs 2, with jockey bookings suggesting that Brandon Hill is his main hope.

He certainly looks likely to run his race – but he also looks vulnerable, from a win perspective.

Kilcrea Vale has been backed into favouritism, but I prefer the chances of last time out winners, Favorito Bucks and Cobra De Mai.

That said, both have been nudged up the handicap for their wins, and that may prevent them from following up.

On balance, whilst he’s no certainty, I do think Bentelimar is the most likely race winner – and at around 15/2, he’s a fair price as well.

Uttoxeter

2:25 I can understand why Big River is favourite for this…

The form of his last time out defeat of Shantou Flyer, took a real boost at the festival this week: as did his previous third placing, behind Ms Parfois.

However, on his run prior to that, he was pulled up with a fibrillating heart – and 3 miles in heavy ground, with top weight, is going to be a real test for him.

I suspect he’s a very good horse – but I’m not sure I would want to be supporting him in such circumstances…

He also faces at least a couple of decent rivals, in the shape of Behind Time and Another Venture.

It really can only be a matter of time, before the former wins off his current mark of 120. The tricky bit is working out when it will happen.

I don’t think that conditions will be ideal for him today – but if he was well backed pre-race, I suspect that might not matter  !

Conditions will suit Another Venture much better – and he is definitely the percentage call in the race.

However, at 7/2, against at least a couple of rivals who could beat him, I’m happy to just watch…

3:00 Hitherjacques Lady is yet another eye catcher running today - and she’s another who I think has a good chance of winning…

She caught the eye on her seasonal debut at Ascot, back in November.

She ran really well that day, on ground that was probably too quick for her; leading until the final flight, and then staying on well for third place.

She was third again on her next start, at Sandown.
The ground was more suitable for her that day – but the opposition was a bit too hot.

She was taking on Poppy Kay and Midnight Jazz at level weights – and both are rated 8lb her superior.

In the circumstances, an 8 length defeat was creditable enough…

On her most recent run, Hitherjacques Lady was really pitched in at the deep end, against Le Bague au Roi in a grade 2 event at Ascot,

She was undoubtedly out of her depth that day – but still ran poorly, being pulled up a fair way from home.
However, a subsequent wind op, suggests all was not right physically, so hopefully that run can be ignored…

If she is back in peak form today, then she should run a big race.

She has a marked preference for heavy ground – and she will certainly get that !

Her form reads well, in the context of this race – and there’s even a chance that she might get an uncontested lead.

At 10/1, she is worth a small risk.

Again, there are plenty of potential dangers, with the unexposed Fleminport the most obvious one.

That said, he’s as likely to bomb out, as he is to run well…

Applesandpierres and Thelingy, are more solid options – but they both look beatable.
And whilst Clyne is the class horse in the race, he is weighted accordingly – and carrying almost 12 stone on todays ground is likely to be a challenge for him.

3:35 Having spent most of the week, trying to solve huge field handicaps, I was delighted to be presented with another one here ! (you can never get too much of a good thing, hey !!).

However, having spent a bit of time looking through the runners, I came to the conclusion that there wasn’t an obvious angle into the race.

I like the look of the younger, less exposed horses most: but Get on the Yager, Back to the Thatch and The Artful Cobbler, the 3 who fit that bill best, are the 3 at the head of the market.

At the other end of the spectrum, then the veterans, Alfie Spinner and Bob Ford also hold some appeal – particularly the former.

However, he’s now 13, and 4m2f in heavy ground is going to be a huge ask for him…

Whilst the appeal of Bob Ford is diminished by the fact that he appears to be the stable second string (behind West of the Edge).

I could give a chance to Western Climate – but probably not much better than his odds imply: whilst Hainan should also run well, if he’s recovered from his exertions in the Eider chase (and that may not be the case).

In short, it’s just not a race I feel I can get involved with.

If forced, then I would nominate The Artful Cobbler as the most likely winner: with Alfie Spinner the most interesting at a price.
But it’s a race that I’m happy enough to watch – officially speaking, at least !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Kemp 3:15 Bentelimar 1pt win 15/2

Uttx 3:00 Hitherjacques Lady 0.5pt win 10/1

Mentions

Kemp 2:05 Kayf Blanco (C )

Kemp 2:40 Just a Sting (P )

Uttx 2:25 Another Venture (O )

Uttx 3:35 The Artful Cobbler (O )