Review of the day

Considering how much I backed off today, it was surprising that it ended up such a frustrating one !

As has been the theme for the last month or so, I managed to get on the wrong side of the fine lines – and it ended up a day of disappointments...

The biggest disappointment, was undoubtedly the run Grand Vision.

I couldn’t see him not running a huge race – until that was, he jumped the first fence – and then it was immediately clear that it wasn’t going to happen.

The reality is, that for all the fence modifications, Aintree just doesn’t suit some horses – and it would appear that Grand Vision is such a horse.

He’s normally a brilliant jumper of a fence – but today, he looked like he hadn’t got a clue.

His ponderous jumping resulted in him getting behind early – and it was no surprise to see him fall (even though he never looks likely to fall when jumping conventional fences).

In the same race, Barrakilla did a little better, and finished fourth – but he was no match for Balnaslow.

I knew he was a big danger – but there was no point at which his price warranted tipping him.

Obviously, after the event, any price would have done – but it’s always easy to be wise after the event…

And that’s exactly how I felt following the very next race !

As I said this morning, it was my intention to put us on Bentelimar, when he opened up at 20/1 yesterday.

I tipped him last time he ran – and he disappointed that day – but I would have been prepared to go in again, if I could have got a price.

However, he just shortened and shortened in price – and by 6:00 yesterday evening, he was a 10/1 shot.

I hoped he might drift a little this morning – but it didn’t happen, so I gave up on him.

Instead I switched to Doitforthevillage and Tommy Silver – but Bentelimar made me pay for that and bolted up.

Again, it’s hard to know what I should have done.

He was a speculative call, who was a bit of value at 20/1 – but not at 10/1.

Beau Gosse was the only other tip in the day, in the 4-year-old hurdle race – but he wasn’t good enough.

He probably ran a little better than he had done at Kempton, but he didn’t run anywhere near well enough to cope with easy winner, We Have a Dream.

Apples Shakira again disappointed a little, in only finishing third.

Maybe she isn’t as good as she initially looked…

In terms of the Mentions: then Calino Dairy ran a huge race in the opener, to take third behind Finians Oscar.

The return to form of the winner was anticipated by the market – even if victory for him, looked very unlikely turning in !

Bristol de Mai was possibly a touch unlucky, both to find the ground not as soft as he would have liked – and to find Might Bite in top form.

In the circumstances, he ran an honourable race to finish second.

Supausndae also finished second – and he was unlucky to bump into L’ami Serge on the day when he chose to put it all in !

Finally, Getaway Katie Mai justified massive market support in the bumper.

5/2 looked plenty short enough this morning – but she was sent off at just 15/8.

In the circumstances, it wasn’t too surprising to see her respond willingly to pressure in a driving finish.

TVB.

Daily write-up - Apr 12th (Aintree Day 1)

It’s the opening day of the 3 day Grand National meeting at Aintree (there is also NH racing at Taunton and Limerick - if anyone is interested !).

I know that I keep on going on about it – and I apologise for that – but the weather and its impact on the ground, is driving me mad !

Bad enough we lost the 2 weeks prior to Cheltenham – and Cheltenham itself was significantly impacted by the rain: it’s barely relented since, resulting in very little of interest in the subsequent 4 weeks.

I can’t believe that the situation is continuing into Aintree – but it is !

There has been plenty of rain over the past few days – and I’ve no idea how the ground will ride this afternoon.

The official going description is ‘good to soft on the Mildmay course; soft on the National course’ – but that’s not really backed up by the going stick – and there was further rain over night.

Listening to the various jockeys (or reading what they say), they are suggesting very soft ground: however, I’ve also read from different sources, that the ground will be lot better than expected !

I honestly have no idea what to make of it – and feel the only sensible thing is to watch a few races and make up my own mind.

Ofcourse, that makes it a bit tricky to tip in advance.

I’ve not opted out completely – but I just can’t bring myself to get heavily involved when there is so much uncertainty…

In truth, Aintree is a tricky meeting to call at the best of times: as you are faced with horses who have run at Cheltenham – and those who bypassed it.

And of those who ran, there is another subset of those who ran well (possibly enduring a hard race) – and those who ran poorly.

Maybe now’s a good time to get into Bookmaking !

I issued a tip last week (one I’m quite happy with !) – a couple more yesterday evening – and another two this morning – but that’s it.

The ground is likely to be so key with most of the races, I feel a watching brief has to be the order of the day.

Hopefully things will be a little clearer come tomorrow…

Here is the rationale for the tips that I have issued – plus my thoughts on the days other races at Aintree…

Aintree

1:45 Be prepared to read this quite a few times (!) – but I think the state of the ground could be key to the outcome of this race…

On decent ground, then I think Brain Power is the one to beat (assuming he is fully recovered from his Cheltenham exertions !) – but if the ground is soft, he will be vulnerable…

Certainly, his apparent main rival, Cyrname, has a marked preference for soft ground – which is why betting in the race without knowing the state of the ground, is a risky.

In fairness, Brain Power can probably handle soft-ish ground (so may be able to get away with some cut) – but if it’s heading towards heavy, he will struggle.

Heavy ground wouldn’t suit Modus either – though in truth, he’s probably not quite good enough, regardless of ground conditions.

Of the other 3 runners: then it’s hard to know what to make of Finians Oscar.
He has looked a world beater – but has also looked limited.

I suspect he is a good horse – but he’s got plenty to prove and certainly couldn’t be backed with confidence.

The mare, Renes Girl, should have no issue with the ground – and is quite interesting in receipt of weight.

She likes to race prominently – and that could mess things up for Cyrname (who likes to do the same) – and help Brain Power.

Calino Dairy is the other runner in the race – and whilst he has little obvious chance on form, the fact he is even running, strikes me as interesting…

He’s trained by Henry de Bromhead – and I wouldn’t associate him with ‘tilting at windmills’.

You can’t make a case for him on the form book (he is rated 17lb inferior to Brian Power) – but he jumped very well when winning 2 novice chases in the autumn and if he’s back in that kind of form (and I suspect he will be) then he could easily outrun his dismissive odds (33/1)

2:20 This doesn’t look the strongest of races, with the 2 Nicky Henderson trained runners: Apples Shakira and We have a Dream, dominating the market.

Both obviously have a chance – but both also have question marks over them…

In the case of Apples Shakira, it is whether she will be able to bounce back from a slightly disappointing run at Cheltenham, last time.

In fairness, I don’t think she ran too badly in the Triumph (even tho I was hoping she would run a bit better !).

She was too free, early in the race – and as a consequence, didn’t run to her optimum.

She is fitted with a hood today, to help her settle – and if that has the desired effect  - and assuming she’s over her Cheltenham exertions, then she is likely to be the one to beat.

Her stablemate We have a Dream missed Cheltenham – but that might prove to be a blessing.

He is unbeaten in 4 runs for Nicky Henderson – but whilst he was very impressive in the first 2, he was less impressive in his 2 most recent victories.

He may well be capable of further improvement – but I suspect that will be required if he is to win today.

In the circumstances, I think it is worth taking both of them on with French challenger, Beau Gosse.

He has already run in the UK, when third to Redicean at Kempton, in February.

He was a fair way behind Malaya that day – and reopposes on the same terms today.
However, I don’t think the relative speed test at Kempton saw him in his best light – and it strikes me as significant that his connections are prepared to take on Malaya again.

It is also interesting that they are prepared to take on We Have a Dream – as he is in the same ownership (and also has the same official rating).

The booking of James Reveley for a very rare ride in the UK, is also quite eye catching…

It’s hard to make a strong case, for anything outside the 4 mentioned…

Nube Negra ran well in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham – but was comprehensively beaten by Apples Shakira earlier in the season and should have little chance of reversing that form.

Et Moi Alors is the only other one who I could make some kind of case for – but he has a lot to find on the book and appears more a horse for next season.

In summary, whilst Beau Goose has a fair bit on, to beat the 2 market principals – he should be capable of running a big race and hopefully at least getting placed.
Furthermore, as neither Apples Shakira or We Have a Dream is bombproof, then there is even has a chance that he might be able to come home in front !

2:50 I suspect that Might Bite could be vulnerable in this – but so too, unfortunately, do a few other people !
At his peak, he is almost certainly the best horse in the race – but on the back of a very hard race in the Gold Cup – and on ground that could be a bit too soft for him – it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see him beaten.

I guess that is why he can be backed at 5/6 – when on form, he could easily be 1/2, or even shorter…

In fact, if I could be sure the ground was at least soft (ideally softer !), I would take him on with Bristol de Mai.

I actually planned to do just that, earlier in the week – but was a bit slow issuing an ante-post tip and the opportunity vanished.

However, Bristol de Mai wants very soft ground to be seen at his best (along with a flat, left handed course) – and I don’t know whether he will get it.

In the circumstances, I feel it has to be a watching race.

If the ground looks to be riding very soft, then Bristol de Mai could be worth siding with – though if that is the case, suspect his price will drop accordingly…

Of the others, the Definitly Red should run his race – particularly if the ground is soft – but he shouldn’t really be good enough to win.

Double Shuffle prefers decent ground – but regardless, I don’t think he will be good enough, as he’s at his best, going right handed.

Tea for Two is also at his best going right handed – though that didn’t stop him from winning this race 12 months ago.
I suspect todays renewal is a stronger – but he must have a chance of at least placing.

Clan des Obeaux is the other one of interest – and he could have been of real interest, despite having a lot to find on official ratings.

He has plenty of scope for improvement – but the suggestion is that he won’t be quite at his peak today.

Again, with all the uncertainty, this has to be a watching race.

If the ground isn’t too bad – and Cheltenham hasn’t left a mark, then Might Bite will win; however, on very soft ground, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bristol de Mai get the better of him.

3:25 Supasundea is definitely the one to beat in this – provided he’s fully recovered from quite a tough race at Cheltenham.

He finished runner up in the Stayers hurdle there – just outspeeded by Penhill.

He drops back in trip half a mile today, but that shouldn’t be a problem (in fact, he should be better suited by it).

The betting has The New One and My Tent or Yours as his main rivals - but they are 10 and 11 respectively, and whilst not in major decline, not at the peak of their powers either…

Fourth favourite, is L’Ami Serge – but he’s an enigma wrapped up in a conundrum !

I’m sure that everyone reading this knows the score with him: he travels supremely well in his races – but tends not to finish them quite so effectively !

He should be a good EW play – though 2m4f is probably his minimum trip, particularly if the ground isn’t very testing…

Outside the top 4 in the betting, you have to get creative to make cases - though it can be done !

Cyrius Darius won at this meeting as a novice – and is still relatively unexposed over  hurdles – he has some kind of chance: as too does Clyne – though he is very ground dependant, and would need it close to heavy, if he were to really threaten.

Diakali is the final outsider of interest, on his debut for Gary Moore.

He was half decent when trained by Willie Mullins and would have a chance of placing, if he returns to the fray, in top form.

Whether that will happen though, is anyones guess…

In short, this is Supasundaea race to lose, against opponents who have all got question marks hanging over them.

The only one over him, is how much Cheltenham took out of him.

If he’s fully recovered from his exertions there, he should win.

4:05 I tipped Grand Vision for this race last week – and I remain very keen on him…

In fact, my enthusiasm has increased massively over the past 24 hours – I just wish I’d been heavier with the staking !

Ofcourse, that’s easy to say now that I know he’s actually running in the race – and that Jamie Codd will be riding.

I didn’t have that knowledge last week…

Grand Vision strikes me as the perfect horse for this race.

He’s an exuberant front running grey, who jumps for fun (think Desert Orchid !).

I would expect him to relish the National fences (though you never know for sure, until they try them) – whilst I would be very hopeful that his prominent running style will see him avoid trouble.

The 2m5f trip should be perfect for him – as too will be soft ground (though he can handle heavy, if required !)

I knew all of the above when I tipped him last week – what I didn’t know, was whether he would actually run in the race: and that Jamie Codd would be in the saddle !

With the race seemingly made for him, I couldn’t believe that he wasn’t being aimed at it – but the booking of Jamie Codd is a massive positive.

He and Derek O’Connor are streets ahead of their amateur rivals – so having him on board, can only enhance the chance of Grand Vision.

More than that, this is the first ride Codd has ever had for Colin Tizzard, so there seems to be a real statement of intend from the stable.

I couldn’t be more positive about the horse – though obviously he will need some luck in running !

In terms of his rivals, then despite the field size (21), there are probably only half a dozen realistic dangers.

Balnalslow (under Derek O Connor) is the biggest – but at 5/1, there is no margin in his price.

Barrakilla is the other one I’m fearful of  - and at 12/1, it is worth having him on side as a saver.

He was very useful when running under rules – and put in a big performance when getting the better of Wells de Lune, on his Hunter Chase debut at Bangor.

He disappointed on his only subsequent run – but has been given time to recover from that and provided he takes to the fences, I would expect him to run a big race.

The free going Wells de Lune is likely to take the field along – and will hopefully set things up nicely for Grand  Vision (who I would expect to follow him).

Whilst Mon Parrain is the most interesting of those at massive prices…

However, this race is all about Grand Vision.

Providing his luck holds, he simply has to go very close.

The slight worry, is his stamina giving out on the run in – but if that does happen, then hopefully it will be Barrakilla who takes advantage !

4:40 I can’t tell you how long I’ve spent looking at this race (roughly as long as I’ve spent looking at all of the other races, combined !).

The thing is, on a day when opportunities are thin on the ground, this did look like the most solvable race on the card.

More than that, I didn’t find it too difficult to find reasons for opposing many of the runners – in fact, just about all of them !

Needless to say, the uncertainty regarding the ground, helped narrow things down quite a bit (with me eliminating those who want it quick – plus those who want it very heavy).

Trainer form was another factor that featured prominent in my thinking, with quite a few of the runners coming from stables which are struggling for form.

I could certainly have been interested in favourite, Kings Socks – but 4/1 in such a big field, competitive race, is very short – particularly for a horse with something to prove, dropping in trip.

I had planned to side with Bentelimar – but his early quote of 20/1 quickly halved – and whilst I think he has a chance, 10/1 is now plenty short enough.

Instead, I’ve opted to split stakes across Doitforthevillage and Tommy Silver.

I half fancied Doitforthevillage for the Grand Annual at Cheltenham as I felt he had been layed out for the race.

However, that contest is even more competitive than this – and he also had no luck in running.
In the circumstances, he did well to finish sixth – and could probably have finished a fair bit closer.

He runs off the same mark today – and whilst I would have preferred to see Paddy in the saddle, there may be good reason for his absence, so I’m judging the horse on it’s own merits.

It’ll handle the ground fine – and was in the process of running well in the race last season, when he unluckily fell, so the track shouldn’t be an issue.
In short, he should run well…

Tommy Silver isn’t as guaranteed to run well – but is probably the more likely of the pair to win, if things do drop right for him.

He is still a novice – and his preference for decent ground is a worry.

However, he has plenty of scope for improvement  - and appears to have been targeted at this race.

His trainer, Paul Nicholls, has a poor record at this meeting. However, I sense that he may have adjusted his approach this season and be targeting it, due to the domination of Elliott and Mullins, at Cheltenham.

Together, Doitforthevillage and Tommy Silver represent about a 4/1 shot – and in a race where I am happy to eliminate quite a few, that strikes me as a fair price.

5:15 This is not a race for strong opinions – though I can understand why Getaway Katie Mai is a short priced favourite…

She finished second on her most recent run, to Relegate – and that one went on and won the bumper at the Cheltenham festival.

Taken literally, that form gives Getaway Katie Mai an outstanding chance in this, as it certainly isn’t as strong a race as the Cheltenham one…

The only danger, is reading too much in to a single piece of form.

Relegate could have stepped forward massively to win at Cheltenham, in which case, the proximity of Getaway Katie Mai to her, is less relevant.

In fact, it is interesting that Getaway Katie Mai was beaten 14 lengths by Posh Trish when they met in a PTP at Lemonfield, 12 months ago.

The relevance of that form is debatable, but it does sow a seed of doubt…

In terms of dangers, then Posh Trish is definitely one (and based on her bumper runs !). In fact, she is probably the most solid option in the race – though she could be vulnerable to a less exposed one…

Dissavril was massively impressive when winning at Market Rasen – but the market is wise to her: Whilst Meep Meep and Cedar Valley have both won their only start, and could also be anything…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Aint 2:20 Beau Gosse 0.5pt EW 16/1

Aint 4:05 Grand Vision 1pt win 10/1

Aint 4:05 Barrakilla 0.5pt win 12/1

Aint 4:40 Doitforthevillage 0.5pt win 9/1

Aint 4:40 Tommy Silver 0.5pt win 9/1

Mentions

Aint 1:45 Calino Dairy (S )

Aint 2:50 Bristol de Mai (C )

Aint 3:25 Supasundea (P )

Aint 5:15 Getaway Katie Mai (P )

Review of the day

There was no joy again this afternoon – and no stories of unlucky near misses either !

The ground at Fairyhouse was absolutely desperate, which resulted in the races becoming virtual lotteries – and unfortunately, we hadn’t picked any of the right numbers !

Forge Meadow and Lets Dance were the first tips to run – and in fairness, they both ran reasonably well.

Forge Meadow led to the straight – but then stopped as if shot: whilst Lets Dance travelled nicely, just behind the leaders, but couldn’t find anything when asked in the straight.

The next tips to run were in the Irish National – but all 3 selections were undone by jumping errors.

Thunder and Roses was in the front rank when falling just before half way: whilst Moulin a Vent unshipped his rider at the same fence.

Dounikos looked like he was beginning to struggle, when he made a mistake a few fences later –and he was soon pulled up.

It was attritional stuff – almost ending up a game of last man standing…

The final tip to run, was Rogue Angel.

He was very well supported in the market – which gave me cause for optimism.

He also got into a nice rhythm at the head of affairs, and with 5 fences to jump, looked sure to be involved in the finish.

However, he then hit a metaphoric wall – and was beaten in a few strides !

The was no joy for the Mentions either, with them all struggling to cope with the ground.

To be honest, it was desperate stuff – and not the kind of racing that we should be betting on (as an ability to handle conditions, plus luck in running, were the only things that mattered).

They are supposed to be racing at the track again tomorrow – and I will check out the declarations properly.

However, having witnessed events today, my inclination is to not get involved, regardless.

I’ll confirm for definite, later this evening…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Apr 2nd

Unbelievably, all 5 NH meetings (plus the 1 flat meeting) scheduled in the UK for today, have been abandoned – leaving just the 2 meetings in Ireland, at Fairyhouse and Cork.

What’s more, it must be touch and go for both Irish meetings, as rain continues to fall on saturated ground…

I can only imagine how it will ride !

It’s been a great shame that the weather has completely messed up the last month or so, of the season.

In fact, it has arguably messed up most of the time since Christmas – certainly during the midweeks (as I know from trying to find races to preview on the blog !).

Obviously it’s an occupational hazard – and there’s absolutely nothing that can be done about it.

However, when coupled with the luck we’ve been enduring recently, it does result in quite a lot of frustration (for me, at least !)

Still, on the upside, every day brings new hope – maybe everything will drop into place this afternoon

With Cork putting on a slightly odd card (presumably designed for a Bank holiday crowd !), all of my attention has been on day 2 of the Easter festival at Fairyhouse.

The feature race is the Irish National– and I’ve tipped 3 in that race. I’ve also tipped 3 more, across a couple of the supporting races.

Here’s the rational for the tips – plus my thoughts on the other main races.

Fairyhouse

2:45 I’d been quite keen to take on Getabird in this – if I could find something suitable…

He was sent off 7/4 fav for the Supreme hurdle at Cheltenham on his most recent run – but was far too free and didn’t get home.

Despite that, he’s been installed around even money for this race – and really wants opposing at that price.

The trouble is, I can’t find anything suitable to oppose him with…

His stable/owner companion Sharjah is second favourite. He also ran in the Supreme – but he didn’t fare much better than Getabird…

Sayar may be the one – but it’s hard to side with a stable third string (which is effectively what he is !).

That said, I guess it’s a little easier when the stable is that of Willie Mullins…

Certainly I prefer his claims to those of the 2 Gordon Elliott representatives: Veneer of Charm and Hardline – both of whom look below the level normally required to win a race of this nature.

Damalisque and The Gunner Murphy are potentially both quite interesting.

The former won well on his only run over hurdles in France: whilst it’s interesting that the latter is being asked to make his hurdling debut in a graded race.

Market support for Damalisque, would make him interesting – but without that knowledge, he is hard to recommend.

3:15 This is another difficult race to fathom.
The Gordon Elliott trained Space Cadet is favourite - but that’s because he is potentially well treated back over hurdles, based on his chase mark.

However, it’s always dangerous to assume that a horse will be able to run to its mark in one discipline, when faced with the other – and he makes very little appeal at around 5/1.

The trouble is, I can’t find anything that does make much appeal !
Stand up and Fight could be dangerous, back over hurdles – but there’s a lot of guesswork in involved with him: and it’s a similar situation with Bargy Lady, who hasn’t run for almost a year.

I’m quite interested in Visions D’ete.

It’s unusual to see a 4 year old running in a race like this – and the weight concession he gets from his older rivals, could prove crucial in the testing conditions.

That said, there’s a bit too much guesswork involved to make 10/1 an attractive price.

Plenty of others can be given half chances – but it’s hard to construct a solid case for any of them.
In the circumstances, it’s an easy enough race to just watch…

3:50 4 races into the card and we finally reach one where it’s possible to construct a proper case for a bet (as opposed to just guessing !).

That said, it’s a very open looking race, in which an argument can be made for a number of the runners.

The one that appeals most, is Forge Meadow.

She’s looked an improved performer this season, since racing prominently – and I’m hopeful she will be able to continue that improvement this afternoon.

On her most recent run, she out-battled Identity Thief at Gowran, having been passed by him on the run to the last (ouch !).

Identity Thiefs subsequent fourth in the Champion hurdle, showed the Gowran form in a very good light – but he’s 4lb worse off with Forge Meadow today; won’t relish the conditions as much as the mare – and had a hard enough race in the Champion hurdle.

In short, he shouldn’t reverse the form !

Arguably Forge Meadow shouldn’t reverse form with Lets Dance, from when the 2 met at Leopardstown over Christmas.

However, I suspect that today’s softer ground – plus the likelihood that Forge Meadow will get a better passage through the race (assuming she leads), could swing things in her favour.

At the prices, I think it is worth also having Lets Dance on side, just in case things work out well for her (she certainly has sufficient ability to go very close if they do).

There are plenty of potential dangers in the race…

Diamond Cauchois and Renneti are 2 – though both are burdened with 5lb penalties, which won’t help their cause.

Coquin Mans and Jezki are 2 others – though the former is priced up short enough for what he’s achieved; whilst the latter is in the twilight of his career and doesn’t really want the ground as heavy as he’s going to get.

It’s certainly not a race you could be adamant about – but both Forge Meadow and Lets Dance have a chance – and the market has underestimated that chance.

Hopefully one of them will do the decent thing and come home in front !

4:25 As I said in my earlier tip email, I was toying with getting involved with this race…

That’s because I can see reasons for opposing the top 3 in the betting.

Un de Sceaux is clearly the class horse in the race – but he had a hard race at Cheltenham and I can see the very heavy ground taxing his stamina.

If he can recapture his novice form, then Coney Island is the one to beat – but he’s been unimpressive in his 2 runs this season and has a lot to prove.

Doctor Phoenix has been a revelation this season – but I’ll be surprised if he gets home over 2m4f in heavy ground.

By a process of elimination, Kylemore Lough is the one I wanted to side with.

He was an eye catcher last time at Warwick, when he was sent for home too early – and ran out of steam after jumping the last.

He will relish today conditions – and it’s interesting that Harry Fry has seen fit to send him over to compete in the race.

The only thing that puts me off him, is that he really shouldn’t be good enough to win !

He’s definitely the inferior of Un de Sceaux, if both horses are at their peak – and he could also be inferior to Coney island.

I would expect him to be placed – and with 8 in the race, would have got involved with him EW.
However the late defection of Champagne West has messed up place terms and the bookies will now only pay out on the first 2 home.

In addition to Kylemore Lough, I would also have taken an EW chance on Fine Rightly…

He’s rated 22lb inferior to Un De Sceaux - so seemingly has a mountain to climb.
However, he will relish the conditions – and I was impressed by the way he travelled last time at Haydock (admittedly in a much lesser contest).

He was priced up at 100/1 – and I certainty don’t think it’s 20/1 about him finishing in the first 3. It might be about him finishing in the first 2, however !

5:00 Historically, novices have done well in the Irish National – and I’m quite keen on a couple in this.

The first of them is Dounikos.

He’s a horse who I’ve tipped on his 2 most recent runs: when finishing fourth at a massive price the Dublin Racing festival – and then last time, when he was pulled up in the RSA chase at Cheltenham.

I really fancied him at Cheltenham, so it was very disappointing to see him run no kind of a race.

I’ve no idea what the problem was that day – so supporting him again today, is an act of faith in his trainer, Gordon Elliott.

However, prior to that run, he had looked very progressive – and I’m sure he will relish the step up to todays trip.

Whether he will relish the shocking ground is a different matter – but I think he is worth a risk.

It’s a similar story with Moulin a Vent.

He’s a very talented novice, who I’m sure will relish the distance of  todays race.

His jumping has let him down a couple of times – and the ground is a worry – but based purely on ability, he has a much better chance than his odds imply.

Certainly his defeat of Monbeg Notorious in December, reads extremely well – particularly as he meets that one on 7lb better terms today.

Admittedly Monbeg Notorious did reverse the form when the 2 met in February – however poor jumping cost Moulin a Vent that day.

I had planned to just put up the 2 in the race – but in the desperate conditions, I think it is worth getting an old timer on side as well…

Thunder and Roses won this race 3 years ago, when he was a novice.

He comfortably beat Rule the World that day – and that one subsequently won the Grand National.

Whilst he’s not reached those heights since, Thunder and Roses has run well on just about every outing this season.

What I like about him, is that he will definitely stay the trip – and act in the conditions.

He also tends to race prominently, and that could be a big positive this afternoon.

Whilst he may be vulnerable to an improver – I expect him to run a very big race.

Of the market leaders, I like Monbeg Notorious best – but have tipped a couple of horses who I think can beat him !

Oscar Knight also interests me, as he’s very strong in the market for a horse who will allegedly hate the conditions !

Kemboy and Arkwrisht are the last 2 that I’ll give a positive mentions. I think both have a chance – but both also have enough question marks over them to stop me from tipping them.

5:45 I’m quite keen on Rogue Angel in this…

He had his finest hour when winning the Irish National , on this card a couple of years ago – and I suspect that connections were hoping he could go for a repeat today.
However, a series of poor performances have seen his mark drop – and his current rating of 128 isn’t high enough to get him into the big one. 

In fact, it’s 9lb lower than when he won the National – and in a much weaker race today, that makes him look very well handicapped.
Ofcourse, being well handicapped is no good if you’ve completely lost your form – but his last time out run in the Leinster National suggests that isn’t the case.

He finished fifth in the race – one place in front of Poormans Hill.

That one reopposes today on 12lb worse terms – and Rogue Angel really should have his beating.

However, Poormans Hill is the 7/2 fav for the race, because he comes here fresh from a recent win in the Ulster National.

He did well to win that day – but the race was just over a week ago, so there must be a question mark over whether he will have fully recovered.

Even if he has, then over today shorter trip, I wouldn’t back him to beat Out Sam.

That one finished third in the race, but looked the most likely winner jumping the last.
However, his stamina gave out up the hill, enabling Poormans Hill to sweep past.

Non of the others in the race particularly grab me.

I could make half cases for Close Shave and Goulane Chosen – but much prefer the chance of Rogue Angel.

My biggest worry is that run immediately after the Irish National, the ground could be truly desperate and this could end up a lottery.

If that doesn’t happen, then I’m optimistic that Rogue Angel will run a very big race.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead – despite the weather !!

TVB.

Tips

Fair 3:50 Forge Meadow 1pt win 12/1

Fair 3:50 Lets Dance 0.5pt win 16/1

Fair 5:00 Dounikos 1pt win 16/1

Fair 5:00 Thunder and Roses 0.5pt EW 40/1

Fair 5:00 Moulin a Vent 0.5pt win 33/1

Fair 5:45 Rogue Angel 0.5pt EW 18/1

Mentions

Fair 2:45 Sayar (S )

Fair 3:15 Vision D’Ete (S )

Fair 4:25 Kylemore Lough & Fine Rightly EW (C )

Review of the day

I’m starting to get the feeling that someone up there doesn’t like me !

There was no joy again with the tips today – though quite how that was the case, I’m not really sure…

I issued 4 tips across 3 races – and could easily have had 2 winners – but instead, ended up with 2 seconds !

The first tip to run, was Jetz at Fairyhouse.

My rationale for tipping him was that I wanted to take on the 3 market leaders, as they had all endured tough races at Cheltenham.

The logic was sound – but despite touching 1.24 on the run-in, Jetz was held off in a driving finish, by Pallasator (one of the others that I considered tipping).

With the benefit of hindsight, I should probably have tipped them both – but I preferred the chance of Jetz and felt he was better value (which was true – as his price had halved come the off).

Next it was Mr Antolini.

I couldn’t believe how he drifted, after I’d tipped him (out to 12 at one point on BF) – but he was back in to 5/1 at the off (which was still a very fair price)

In the race, he travelled strongly – and held every chance approaching the home turn.

However, it was at that point, fate decided he wasn’t going to win !

Whilst Jamie Bargary took him to the outside, Robbie Dunne went for a daring run up the rails on Vado Forte.

In truth there probably wasn’t sufficient room – but Dunne forced him through.

Vado Forte made a bit of a mess of the second last – but all that did was cause a knock on effect with Remilluc, which resulted in Mr Antolini becoming short of room !

It was a similar situation at the last, where Mr Antolini was slightly impeded when Remilluc unshipped his jockey.

He was gaining on Vado Forte all the way up the run-in – but the line came a bit too soon and he was still half a length shy when it was reached.

He really did have to go down as an unlucky loser…

In fairness, there was no hard luck story – or near miss – with the final 2 tips of the day, at Ffos Las.

The first time blinkers didn’t light up Bob Ford as I’d hoped – and unable to lead, he was soon in trouble.

Whilst Pobbles Bay did struggle with his big weight in the bad ground – as I feared might be the case…

As for the Mentions – then they did quite well, after a slow start…

There was no money for Dundrum Lad, so I wasn’t too surprised to see him pull up before the home straight: and whilst Dawn Shadow ran well against Laurina – she only ran well enough to finish fourth (which wasn’t good enough for anyone who got involved with her, EW).

More positively, Bel Ami de Sivola took advantage of Patricks Park under-performing and managed to hold off Bon Papa: and whilst Shattered Love was run out of it close home, Lickpenny Larry was a convincing winner at Plumpton.
What’s more, he drifted to 3/1 at the off (there was even some 7/2 around).

At that price, he could well have been a tip – but things just aren’t dropping that way at the moment…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Apr 1st

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Plumpton and Ffos Las in the UK – plus Fairyhouse and Cork in Ireland.

It’s the first day of the 3 day Easter carnival at Fairyhouse – and the days best action takes place at the County Meath venue.

There are a couple of Grade 1 events; plus a grade 2 – and two very competitive handicaps.

It should be a great watch – though betting opportunities are thin on the ground.

The racing isn’t of the same calibre at the 3 other venues – though each one has a decent handicap as the main event on the card.

I’ll offer my thoughts on all 3 - in addition to the big races on the Fairyhouse card.

Before I get on to that, just a plug for a couple of things that are going on in the forum….

Regular readers should recall that I gave a positive mention to Chris’s System bets thread, in the middle of last month.

Well, despite this additional pressure (!), things have continued to go from strength to strength.

Yesterday, Chris posted 13 system bets – and 5 of them won !

Across the entire month, he posted a total of 60 bets – and 15 of them won, yielding a level stake profit of 56.3pts at BSP (better if you took the Fair price at the time of issue).

Since September, he has posted 524 bets – and at level stakes they are showing a profit of 162pts at BSP.

I doubt you’ll find much better anywhere – and the real beauty is that the bets can be very easily placed (I use Betdaq, which shows how easy it is !).

The other thread I want to recommend reading, is a new one, started by Dave (of forum Naps competition fame).

Dave has set himself a ‘50 bet challenge’ (it will run through the summer months) – staking £100 per race on 50 races, with the objective of winning sufficient to fund a trip to the Maldives, next winter !

I’ve no idea whether he will be successful – but I’ve no doubt it will be an entertaining (and informative) read.

Best of luck, Dave !

Anyway, on with the rationale for todays tips – plus my thoughts on the days other main races…

Fairyhouse

2:20 This is a near impossible race to get a handle on, with 13 relatively unexposed novices in competition.…

Unsurprisingly, representatives of the usual suspects head the market, in the shape of Back Bar and Caltext for Gigginstown/Elliot – plus the JP McManus owned, Call a Cab.

Victory for any of the 3 would be no great surprise – and indeed is a quite likely outcome.

That said, if I were to get involved with the race, I would be more inclined to take a small risk on the JP McManus second string, Dundrum Lad.

He’s not run since disappointing at Galway, back in October, but has shown himself capable of running well fresh, in the past.

He may be a bit of value at 16/1 – though thatt said, if he is, the price will probably be gone by the time you read this !

2:50 The first Grade 1 on the Fairyhouse card, is a mares novice hurdle – and it looks to be Laurinas for the taking…

She was massively impressive when winning the equivalent race at the Cheltenham festival - and all things being equal, she should follow up in this.

Certainly, if she runs to the same level of form, non of her opponents will be able to live with her – so if you oppose her, it is in the hope that she runs way below her capabilities – or misfortune befalls her…

I couldn’t consider taking her on, based on such hopes - so it will just be a case of enjoying the spectacle.

In terms of what will follow her home, then British raider, Woolstone One looks most likely – but is also second favourite.

Unlike most of the other runners, she bypassed Cheltenham (and a likely hard race), so there should be no reason why she won’t run her race.

Salsaretta, Alletrix, Cut the Mustard and Dawn Shadow are all possible EW options – but of the 3, only Allextrix missed Cheltenham – and she has run even more recently.

Furthermore, the others all appeared to have hard races – so it’s anyones guess if they will run to form, this afternoon.

If forced off the fence, I would side with Dawn Shadow EW at 50/1, as her running style may enable her to sneak into the frame.

On balance though, it’s a watching race…

3:20 The interesting aspect of this race, is that the 3 market leaders; Blow by Blow, Duc Des Genievres and Scarpeta, all ran last time at the Cheltenham festival – and all had hard races…

Blow by Blow won the Martin Pipe hurdle: whilst Duc de Genievres and Scarpeta chased home Samcro (at a respectful distance !).

Little more than 2 weeks have passed since then – and whilst they could have fully recovered from their exertions, at the prices, I think all 3 warrant opposing.

The question is, what to oppose them with…

Pallasator is an option – as too, at a big price, is Riders on the Storm – however, I fancy the chance of Jetz more than both of them…

He is closely related to former Champion hurdler, Jezki and has inherited a fair chunk of the family ability.

He has been gradually progressing over hurdles – and last time, came within a head of taking a Grade 1 at the Dublin racing festival.

That run – and his previous third to Next Destination – links him in closely with the best novices.

In fact he split Duc de Genievres and Blow by Blow, when he finished fourth to Next Destination.

Based simply on that run – and the fact that he will be a fresher horse – he has a chance of beating Duc de Genievres and Blow by Blow today – but I think his case is stronger than that…

In all of his races so far, he has shown a tendency to pull.

As a consequence, he probably hasn’t quite done himself justice (despite running well).

Jessie Harrington fits a hood for the first time today – and I’m hoping that will help him to settle and enable him to use his energy more effectively.

Interestingly, Jezki was wearing a hood for the first time when he won the Champion hurdle.

If the aid has a similar impact with Jetz this afternoon, I’ll be very happy !

3:55 Whilst superficially this appears a competitive 12 runner handicap – it’s hard to see the winner coming from outside the top 3 in the betting.

Patrick Park was a good winner of a similar contest at the Dublin Racing festival, on his second run for Willie Mullins.

He’s been raised 10lb for that win – but could easily be up to defying his new mark.
If he’s not, then Bon Papa looks the one most likely to take advantage.

He’s making his handicap debut this afternoon – but has shown decent form in Grade 1 events on his 2 most recent runs and looks likely to relish the drop back in trip.

It’s not easy to judge his opening mark of 139 – but it doesn’t look overly harsh.

Bel Ami de Sivola is the third most likely winner of the race – and third favourite !

He’s arguably got the most solid form in the race – but hasn’t got the scope for improvement of his 2 main rivals.

If they both disappoint, then he is the one most likely to take advantage – but if they don’t, he’s unlikely to be good enough to win.

With the betting looking spot on, it’s virtually impossible to find an angle.

Bel Ami de Sivola, EW, would make a small profit if he was placed – but set against the risk of something going wrong, it’s probably not worth the risk.

Another watching race…

4:30 If she’s in the same form that she was when winning the JLT at the Cheltenham festival last time, then Shattered Love will follow up in this.

She cruised through that race – and despite making a mess of the last, was a very easy winner.

The ease of her victory that day surprised me – but there was no fluke about it and in receipt of the 7lb sex allowance from all of her rivals today, she will take a lot beating.

Ofcourse, if her exertions at Cheltenham have taken the edge off her, then she will be vulnerable – but we won’t know if that’s the case, until it is too late…

The market has Invitation Only as her main rival – and Willie Mullins certainly seems to be making positive noises abut his chances.

He made a race ending mistake at the fourth last in the JLT – though that probably saved him from having a particularly hard race.

The Storyteller and Al Boom Photo both had hard races at Cheltenham – the former when winning the Plate and the latter when falling in the RSA.
Even if they are at their best today, I suspect that won’t be quite good enough.

Saturnas is potentially more interesting – at a big price.

He needs to make significant improvement on the form he has shown over fences so far – but that’s not impossible.
Whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tycoon Price outrun truly crazy odds (66/1).

I was quite keen on him at Cheltenham – but he made a race ending mistake at the fourth last.

Again, that will have saved him from having a very hard race – and the fact that Gordon Elliott is even running in him in this, is interesting…

With so many imponderables, it has to be a watching race – but it should be an interesting one !

Cork

4:05 The high light of the Cork card, is this very decent handicap hurdle.

The market strongly favours the Willie Mullins trained Lareena and the Gavin Cromwell trained Spades are Trumps – and it may well be right.

Both hoses are making their handicap debuts and have massive scope for improvement.

I’m not sure I’d be wanting to lay either one, that’s for sure !

Of the others, then I initially thought that Goulane Chosen looked very interesting, off a mark 25lb lower than his chase mark.

However, the fact that Donal McInerney, who rode him last time, isn’t in the saddle, puts me off a little – as does the fact that the horse ran over hurdles as recently as January,  when he didn’t show a great deal…

It may simply be that he’s much better over fences than he is over hurdles.

De Benno is the other one of interest – but from a potential pre-race back to lay in running perspective.

Like Goulane Chose, he is much lower rated over hurdles than he is over fences – but  I will be surprised if he is able to capitalise on that fact.
I’ll be far less surprised however, if he leads early – and by quite a margin (he’s the only confirmed front runner in the field – and he rely does like to front run !).

Certainly if you do back him pre-race it should be relatively easy to exit the bet early for either profit or a free bet.

Ffos Las

4:35 The first thing I should say, is that this is the first race that Dave has chosen to bet in, as part of his 50 race challenge.

His thoughts can be read on the forum.

And I guess it’s quite nice that he and I have come to roughly the same conclusion !

In fairness, he arrived at it first – but then again, he did study the race a few days before me !

Both of us are of the opinion that Bob Ford is the one to beat.

He won the corresponding race 3 years ago – and off a mark just 1lb lower than he races from today.

Conditions were truly desperate on that occasion – and he simply ground his rivals into submission.

Ffos Las is very much a specialists course – so it’s in Bob Fords favour that he has won there 4 times – and on each occasion, the ground was heavy.

Certainly he should have no issue with todays conditions – and I suspect that won’t be the case for many of his rivals.

The really interesting thing with him today, is the fitting of first time blinkers.
He’s a horse who has tended to be ridden prominently – though his enthusiasm to front run hasn’t been quite so evident recently.

If the blinkers fire him up, then I could easily see him making all – and as was the case 3 years ago, his rivals could end up being ground into submission…

All this said, if the race was being run elsewhere – or even on slight better ground – I would be very keen on Pobbles Bay.
There is little doubt in my mind, that he is the best horse in the race (by some margin) – and well handicapped (despite having top weight).

His penultimate run was in the Welsh National – and turning, I thought him the most likely winner.
He didn’t get home that day – and it may be a similar story today – though as that was only his second run of the season, it is also possible that he wasn’t 100% fit…

He’ll be fit today – and he also faces lesser opponents – so there is a chance that he may simply have too much class.

In my heart, I suspect that this will end up too much of a test for him (thanks to Bob !) – but I feel I must have a saver on him, in case it doesn’t end up quite the war I envisage.

Plumpton

3:15 Just a quick mention for Lickpenny Larry in this.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Towcester – and would probably have won at Leicester last time, if he’d not made a bad mistaken at the fourth last.

He’ll probably win today – provided he doesn’t make any similar mistakes.
That said, a price of 2/1 means that I’m likely to just be watching…

3:45 This is a really tight race, but as I expect Mr Antolini to be favourite - and he can be backed at 11/2 (6/1 in places !) - I feel I have to take a chance on him…

On his most recent outing, he won the Imperial Cup at Sandown.

He only beat Call Me Lord by a neck that day - but there were 9 lengths back to the favourite, Whatswrongwithyou, and in the circumstances, I feel Mr Antolini got off lightly with just a 6lb rise.

Certainly it is very strong 2 mile handicaps form – and if he runs to the same level this afternoon, he will take a lot of beating.

One slight concern is that Plumpton is a much sharper track than Sandown – and it was Mr Antolinis stamina that won him the day.
However, he travelled very sweetly through the race – and I’m struggling to imagine that it will be anything but tough going, in the mud at Plumpton this afternoon !

Early du Lemo has been installed favourite on the back of a promising reappearance at Newbury.

He is relatively unexposed and gets in today with a light weight.

However the Newbury run was just 9 days ago – and he’s unproven on ground as soft as he will be facing this afternoon.

Remilluc is the solid option in the race.

He’s a course specialist – and has been in tremendous form lately,

However, he runs today off a career high mark of 148 – and as a 9 year old, at the end of a long season, that’s a big ask.

The ground and trip are the worry with Kings Walk – accepting that he was an impressive winner last time (and travelled well in the race): whilst Vado Forte and Jaisalmar are both novices – and this is a tough ask at this stage of their respective careers.

In summary, whilst Mr Antolini isn’t a certainty, in what’s a tough race – he has lots in his favour and is a good bet at the available price.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Fair 3:20 Jetz 1pt win 10/1

Ffos 4:35 Bob Ford 1pt win 9/1

Ffos 4:35 Pobbles Bay 0.5pt 11/1

Plum 3:45 Mr Antolini 1pt win 11/2

Mentions

Fair 2:20 Dundrum Lad (S )

Fair 2:50 Dawn Shadow EW (O )

Fair 3:55 Bel Ami De Sivola EW (O )

Fair 4:30 Shattered Love  (C )

Plum 3:15 Lickpenny Larry (P )