Daily write-up - Apr 14th (Aintree Day 3)

Day 3 of the Aintree Grand National meeting (there is also NH racing at Chepstow and Newcastle).

Grand National Day !

It’s also the final day of the 2017-18 TVB season !

What had been a great season, prior to March, has gone a bit wonky lately !

I won’t go into why I think things have gone awry (I’ll save that for the end of season report !), instead, I’ll focus on the day ahead – and my final chance to return the season P&L to its former glory !

That said, it’s not going to be an easy thing to achieve.

We’ve already seen many times this week, how most of the races are either a little bit too obvious or nearly impossible ! – and it’s the same again today…

At least we’ve got a good idea on the ground.

I felt it was still soft yesterday – maybe edging towards heavy – but not desperate.

With no rain in the past 24 hours, I would expect it to be the same today…

Despite that, I’ve not gone mad with the tips – or the staking (the conditions and the races, just haven’t lent themselves to it).

I’ve just gone with one in the National (I’m sure you all have a view on the race yourselves !) – plus tips in 3 of the days other races.

I would love to finish the season on a high – I kind of feel we deserve it.

However, as we all know, you don’t always get what you deserve in this life (certainly when you are betting !)

Anyway, for the final time this season, here’s the rationale for the days tips – plus my thoughts on the other races at Aintree…

Aintree

1:45 Generally, Dan Skeltons horses have run well at the meeting, without winning – but I’m hoping one of his runners in this race, will be able to right that situation…

He actually runs 3: Shannon Bridge; No Hassle Hoff and Sir Mangan – and I want the first 2 named on side (be warned, if Sir Mangan wins, it could tip me over an edge !).

Shannon Bridge looks to be the stables number one hope (Harry rides) – and he is my main fancy in the race.

He disappointed on his most recent run at Haydock – in a Grade 2 novice event, on heavy ground.

It’s impossible to say what his issue was that day: it could have been the ground – or he could still have been feeling the effects of his previous run when second in another Grade 2 race at Doncaster.

He’s been given a good break since then – missing Cheltenham – so he arrives here a fresh horse.

He’s very inexperienced, having only run 4 times previously over hurdles – but that means he has plenty of scope for improvement.

His opening handicap mark of 140, looks fair – so if he can bounce back to the form he showed at Doncaster (or even improve on that), then I think he can go close…

I also think his stablemate, No Hassle Hoff, can go close.

He was sent off a short priced favourite for this race last year – and ran pretty well, to finish fourth.

He was still a novice at the time, and has improved this season - his first one in open company.

His fourth to Sam Spinner in November, was a good run: as was his subsequent third to Donna’s Diamond.

Both of those runs were on heavy ground, so he should have no issue with todays conditions.

Certainly, I think he is over priced, at 16/1…

Most of the dangers appear to be at the head of the market, with Debece and Connetable the 2 that I’m most fearful of.

However, neither of those is completely solid, so I’m prepared to take them on.

Golan Fortune is the only other one worthy of a Mention – and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him well.

2:25 It’s very difficult to see an angle into this race, with Black Op and On the Blind Side looking a fair way superior to their rivals – but also dominating the betting.

Black Op can boast the best single piece of form: his second to Samcro in the Ballymore at Cheltenham – and based on that run, he should be favourite.

However, the Tom George stable isn’t firing at the moment, which is a worry when you are looking at a short price.

By contrast, Nicky Hendersons horses are on fire – and that adds hugely to the attraction of On the Blind Side.

He had to miss Cheltenham – but that may not have been a bad thing – and his form from earlier in the season, makes him the clear second best horse in the race.

The ground is a bit of a worry for him – but if he handles it, I suspect he’s the one to beat…

Western Ryder is probably the third best horse in the race – but also the third favourite !

He ran a good race in the Supreme hurdle a Cheltenham – and should benefit from the step up in trip today.

Exactly the same comments apply to Lostintranslation – so he too must have a chance of placing, even if his chance of winning is probably dependent on the 2 market leaders under-performing…

Taking into account her mares allowance, Momella is actually the third best horse in the race – and she should handle the soft ground.

I could see her running a decent race – but I will be surprised if she’s good enough to win.

Silver Concorde would have interested me most of the outsiders – if the ground had been better. However, he doesn’t really want it soft.

In the circumstances, Better Getalong may be best of those at big prices.

He will have no issue with conditions and has Davy in the saddle for good measure !

3:00 If the opposition was more credible, then I would be very tempted to take on Petit Mouchoir in this.

On official ratings, he is almost a stone superior to all of todays rivals – and if he runs to his best, then this won’t be a contest.

However, he endured a gruelling race at Cheltenham 4 weeks ago, and it remains to be seen whether that has left a mark.

Certainly, at a price of 4/7 I wouldn’t be prepared to pay to find out…

The trouble is, non of his rivals look like Grade 1 horses (in fact, most of them look like handicappers !).

I guess that won’t matter if Petit Mouchoir seriously under-performs, as something will have to win the race – the tricky bit is figuring out which one will be most likely to take advantage in that situation.

On official ratings, Shantou Rock is the next best horse in the race – but he may struggle on the ground.

Taking into account her mares allowance, Lady Buttons is only rated 1lb inferior to him – and she should have no issue with conditions.

She has also apparently been targeted at the race – which is always a positive.

She can be backed at 2/1 ‘without Petit Mouchoir’ – or at 6/1, EW – which has the advantage of a second bite at the cherry, if the favourite does bomb.

Kauto Riko is the other one worthy of consideration…

He’s rated 11lb inferior to Shantou Rock – but is in fine form and will have no issue with conditions.

He is just a handicapper – but that might not stop him getting placed.

At 28/1, he could be worth a tiny speculative EW play…

3:40 This is a very open looking handicap, in which a case can be made for many of the runners – without any of them looking particularly solid…

In truth, that’s possibly a bit harsh on Thomas Patrick, as he does look solid.

However, it’s doubtful that he has a great deal in hand of his mark: so 9/2 in a 17 runner handicap, sees little margin in his price…

I think there is some margin in the price of On Tour.

He won over todays course, on his seasonal debut in November - and gets to run from a mark just 2lb higher this afternoon.

That’s because he has disappointed on his subsequent outings - but he’s a horse who tends to perform best when fresh.

It’s very interesting that he’s not run since January – and that he’s back at a course where he’s run well in the past (he finished second on his only other run at the track).

He steps up to 3 miles today – and he’s unproven over the distance.

However, he has won a PTP over that trip – and it was stamina which won him the day, back in November.

He’s not guaranteed to run his race – so is risky from that perspective.

However he comes with plenty of positives and if it all drops in place, then I think he can win…

Viconte du Noyer is even riskier than On Tour !

He was an eye catcher on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham back in November, but has disappointed on his 3 subsequent runs, being pulled up on the 2 most recent.

As a result of those runs, his handicap mark has dropped and he is now 4lb lower than his last winning mark – the same mark as when he finished second at Punchestown, last spring.

He also steps back up in trip today – and I think that will help him.

The final positive, is the form on Colin Tizzards stable.

As Chris has pointed out (and profited from !) on his system thread in the forum, Tizzard seems to target this meeting – and if that’s the case with Viconte du Noyer, he has a horse sufficiently well handicapped to be able to take advantage.

Of the others, then I respect the chances of both Rocklander and Bells of Ainsworth – plus ofcourse, Thomas Patrick.

That said, if either On Tour or Voconte du Noyer are on their ‘A’ game, I think they are both sufficiently talented to beat them all.

4:20 All things being equal, Sam Spinner should win this…

He was sent off 9/4 fav for the Stayers hurdle at Cheltenham, on the back of a couple of very good wins earlier in the season.

Things didn’t work out for him at Cheltenham – but he still ran a fair race to finish fifth.

He was actually just behind Wholestone that day – but I would expect that form to be reversed this afternoon (as not only did Sam Spinner under perform a little, Cheltenham suits Wholestone better than Aintree is likely to).

In truth, the two of them stand head and shoulders above their rivals today - but, as I’ve said a few times already this week, you never know what Cheltenham has taken out of a horse – plus something has to finish third (at least!).
And the race for third place looks to be a very open one !

The Worlds End is third favourite in the race – but his stable is out of form and he won’t appreciate the soft ground: TVB fav Lil Rockerfeller is next in the market – but he just hasn’t looked himself this season – and comes here on the back of a few tough races.

Old Guard is another who is likely to be caught out by the ground; whilst Thomas Campbell has gone off the boil – and Coole Cody just shouldn’t be good enough (even though he’s a fair bit better than the 2 rags in the race !).
By a process of elimination, you end up with Identity Thief.

He ran fourth in the Champion hurdle on his most recent outing – and as a Grade 1 winner in the past, certainly has the class required to win this race.

He will also have no issue with the ground – having put up a couple of his best ever performances, on very soft ground.

The question mark with him, is the trip.

He’s never run over further than 2m4f – so stepping up to 3 miles will be a journey into the unknown…

That said, he was staying on like a lion up the Cheltenham hill last time, so I can understand connections wanting to give it a go…

I would expect Sean Flanigan to hold him up at the back of the field – and then to try and pick off his rivals up the home straight.

Whether he’ll get past them all, only time will tell – but in a race where there is very little depth – I think it is worth risking that he will pass most of them !

5:15 You’ll be pleased to know that I’m not going to write reams on every runner in the Grand National !

The race is covered just about everywhere - and anything I could say about the various horses, will have already been written somewhere else…

What I will say, is that I don’t think the race is quite as open as has been the case in recent years – I would be reasonably happy to dismiss half the field (though admittedly, most of them would be outsiders !).

I think that’s because if someone owns a horse which is high enough rated to run in the race, they now run – regardless of whether it’s the ‘right’ race.

Ground conditions will have a big bearing on the outcome – as too will luck in running.

I think a case of sorts can be made for the top 10 in betting – but non of them now look over-priced.

A few of them did a couple of weeks ago – and I’m kicking myself for not putting us on any of them (I considered tipping Captain Redbeard, Bais des Isles and Seeyouatmidnight, when they were all much, much bigger prices than they are now).

However, that’s done – or rather, not done !

I actually still think there is some value in the race- in fact, I think there is some serious value – in the shape of Vieux Lion Rouge.

He’s run really well in the last 2 renewals of the race, finishing seventh in 2016 and sixth, last year.

It could be argued that he’s had his chance and come up short – but I’m not so sure…

For a start, he is now 9 – and should se him at the peak of his powers.

Arguably, he was a bit too young the past 2 seasons.

More than that however, this year, I think he was been trained to peak today – whereas in the past 2 seasons, he peaked earlier in the campaign.

Certainly, his most recent run at Ascot, was full of promise, with him staying on strongly behind Regal Encore.

His ability to stay the trip has been questioned – but it was stamina that won him the Becher chase over 3m3f last season – and also when he defeated Blaklion over 3m4f at Haydock (and he is 5lb better off with that one today).

I really do think that he’s got ticks in just about every box - and 8/1 to finish in the top 5, strikes me as a good bet…

Of those at very big prices, then I could construct half cases for Houblon des Obeaux (trainer form); Carlingford Lough (back class) and Final Nudge (unexposed) – but non of them would be anywhere near as solid as Vieux Lion Rouge – and yet they aren’t significantly bigger prices.

Granted luck in running, I think he’s got a real chance of bettering his finishing position of the past 2 seasons.

6:20 This looks a bit of a minefield – and not really a race you should take on without some inside knowledge (which I don’t have !).

Michaels Mount and Scheu Time both make their handicap debuts off what could turn out to be lenient marks – and if either is particularly strong in the market, I wouldn’t want to be laying them !

Gordon Elliott brings over High Expectations for his first run since hacking up at Leicester in November (when he was a winning Lunchtime Nap on the midweek blog !) – though I would have some reservations about the suitability of the ground for him...

Sternrubin tends to contest better races than this – and is likely to try and make all; whilst Maquisard was an impressive winner last time, but remains unexposed and could easily have scope for more improvement.

I’d be a little surprised if the winner didn’t come from these 5 – but it’s not guaranteed !

If forced off the fence, I would probably side with Scheu Time – particularly if he’s well supported.

However, this is very much a watching race…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Aint 1:45 Shannon Bridge 0.5pt win 16/1

Aint 1:45 No Hassle Hoff 0.5pt win 16/1

Aint 3:40 On Tour 0.5pt win 14/1

Aint 3:40 Viscount du Noyer 0.5pt win 20/1

Aint 4:20 Identity Thief 0.5pt EW 20/1

Aint 5:15 Vieux Lion Rouge 0.5pt EW 33/1

Mentions

Aint 2:25 On the Blind Side (C )

Aint 3:00 Lady Buttons (S )

Aint 6:20 Scheu Time (O )