Daily write-up - Apr 13th (Aintree Day 2)

Day 2 of the Aintree Grand National meeting (there is also NH racing at Sedgefield and Ballinrobe).

The ground yesterday was riding soft – but apparently there has been quite a bit of rain, both overnight and this morning – so once again, I’m not really sure what to expect ! (though conditions certainly won’t be any quicker than they were yesterday !)

To be honest, the issue yesterday was less with the ground – and more with how you are supposed to tip/back the winners at these big meetings !

Without exception, every winner yesterday was well backed – either early or late – or both !

It’s always going to be hard for me to tip a horse when I can’t see any margin in the price – even if I think it has a chance.

However, it seems more and more, that if a horse truly has a chance – particularly at the Festivals – then it will be well backed.

Bentelimar was a great example yesterday: he literally could have gone off at 25/1 if he’d not been fancied, yet his price didn’t go above 10/1 all day.

Whilst both Finians Oscar and L’ami Serge started at much lower prices than you would have imagined – having looked tight enough, price wise, in the morning…

It’s difficult to know how best to play things.

I don’t like to tip early – but if I don’t, then the prices just go and I’m left with the choice of either not tipping, or tipping at a ‘non-value’ price.

If I could be sure that the price had been cut because the horse was fancied, then I guess I’d be prepared to accept that – but there are far more false market moves than there are ones with substance…

Anyway, something for me to ponder over the summer !

As for today, I’ve ended up with 5 tips spread across 4 races - so very similar to yesterday.

Let’s just hope I’ve done a bit better with the borderline calls !

Here is the rationale for the days tips – plus my thoughts on the other Aintree races.

Aintree

1:45 As you would expect for a valuable 20 runner handicap, this is quite an open race – but I do like the look of Landin…

He’s still a novice and is relatively unexposed, compared to most of his rivals, having only run 10 times over hurdles.

However, his form has been progressive this season and his most recent effort, when beating Remiluc at Lingfield, at the beginning of last month, stands up to the closest scrutiny.

Prior to that run, Remiluc had finished fifth in the Betfair hurdle – and he followed it up by running second in the County hurdle – in short, Landin beat a rival at the top of his game.

The third horse in the race, Never Equalled, also subsequently won at Ffos Las.

So in the circumstances, the 8lb rise that Landin received for his victroy, doesn’t seem overly harsh.

He’ll be quite happy, if the overnight rain has got into the ground – but equally, he should be fine if it’s riding as it was yesterday.

Who Dares Wins looks his most dangerous rival, coming here on the back of a fine fifth place in the Pertemps final at Cheltenham.

The 3 mile trip seemed to stretch him that day, so I would expect him to be well suited by a return to 2m4f.

The only issue I have with him is that he didn’t look particularly well handicapped on his penultimate run – so maybe his Cheltenham effort flattered him…

Lough Derg Spirit and Spiritofthegames should both run well – but they are priced up accordingly – and look beatable.

Storm House looks potentially more dangerous, on his handicap debut. He’s been given an opening mark of 138 – but it’s very difficult to judge whether that is lenient or not…

Of those at bigger prices, then Massinis Trap should run well: as to should Jester Jet, for the in form Tom Lancey – though it will be a slight surprise if either is sufficiently well handicapped to win.

2:20 Provided the ground isn’t too soft, then I think Irish Roe has a good chance in this – and I don’t understand why she is a 20/1 shot…

Taking her sex allowance into consideration, then on official ratings, she is the joint second best horse in the race.

More than that, she has fully justified her rating, through a number of solid performances – and whilst that means she hasn’t got quite the scope of some of her rivals, it also means that she should perform to the expected level.

She actually disappointed on her most recent outing – but that was in the Betfair hurdle and came just two weeks after she had put in a massive effort against Marias Benefit at Doncaster.

There has to be a chance, that she was still feeling the effect of the Doncaster run when disappointing at Newbury – but she has been given plenty of time to recover since, and I expect her to be back in top form today.

Her runs earlier in the season, against William of Orange and Mohaayed, both represent high class handicap form – and if her rivals today, aren’t graded class, I think she will beat them…

Ofcourse, there is a chance that some of her rivals will turn out to be graded class (we don’t really know for sure, just yet).

Global Citizen certainly has star potential: as too does Vision des Flos – and to a lesser extent, Slate house and Scarlet Dragon.

However it is about potential with all 4 of those – whilst Irish Roe has solid form in the book.

In truth, it’s unlikely that at least one of the four won’t step up to the mark – but not impossible.

Furthermore, I’ll be surprised if all 4 are capable of performing at a higher level than Irish Roe.

That does assume that she runs her race – but provided she handles the ground, then I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t.

2:50 On ratings, this looks like a tight race, but I’m hopeful that Elegant Escape will be able to come out on top.

He finished third in the RSA chase at Cheltenham on his most recent outing – and based on that run, he certainly has every chance.

Black Corton was just behind him that day – and I would expect that form to be upheld, as that one has had a long, hard season, and I fear could be coming to well once too often, today…

In theory, Black Corton hold Ms Parfois on their previous run at Ascot – and whilst that form may not be upheld, it does mean that Elegant Escape should also have her measure…

Coo Star Sivola won the Ultima handicap at Cheltenham, looking an improved performer – however, he had a hard race that day – and I’m not convinced the form is as strong as that of Elegant Escape.

I wouldn’t be quite as quick to dismiss the chances of Terrefort, Mias Storm or Snow Falcon.

The first named ran really well when second to Shattered Love in the JLT at Cheltenham.

It’s very interesting that Nicky Henderson has chosen to step him up in trip today – and if he lasts home, I think he’s the one to beat.

That said, if the ground was on the quick side, I would be even more fearful of Mias Storm.

However, she does have a marked preference for decent ground – and she’s not going to get that.

Snow Falcon is the final one of interest and I could certainly seem him running well.

However, a recent unseat in the Irish National is hardly an ideal preparation – and whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see him place, I’m not sure he is quite up to winning…

This certainly won’t be easy for Elegant Escape – but I think he is just about the best horse in the field, at todays trip – and the addition of first time cheek pieces to sharpen him up, seal the deal.

Colin Tizzard performed precisely the same trick with Native River exactly 2 years ago, before he won this race – and hr hasn’t looked back since !

3:25 It’s very hard to look beyond the 2 market leaders in this…

Both Min and Balco des Flos ran massive races in Grade 1 events at Cheltenham: the former, when finishing second in the Champion chase; and the latter when winning the Ryanair chase.

In truth, it might come down to which one has recovered best from their exertions – but ofcourse, we won’t know that until it is too late…

Ignoring that, then I prefer the chance of Balco des Flos – and he’s arguably a decent bet at 2/1.

Certainly, he was mightily impressive in beating Un De Sceaux – and that one is a very solid yard stick.

It’s also in his favour that todays race is over 2m4f – the same distance as the Ryanair.

His main rival, Min, isn’t categorically proven over the longer trip, with his best form coming at 2 miles.

It’s difficult to crab his run in the Champion chase, as he bumped into an exceptional horse in Altior.

That said, if you take Altior out of the race, then the form doesn’t read as well as that of Balco des Flos.

I’ve not tipped a single horse all season, at odds as low as 2/1, and I’m not going to start now.

However, Balco des Flos was quite tempting (as I only really have the slight concern over whether he will have recovered from Cheltenham – and the doubt over the ground).

It’s virtually impossible to make a case for the other 4.

They are all decent animals – but they aren’t in the same class as the 2 principals.

Politolgue should come out best of them – but he was well behind Min at Cheltenham, and there is no reason why he should reverse the form.

All things being equal, then this should be between Balco des Flos and Min – and I expect the former to come out on top.

4:05 As handicaps go, they don’t come much tougher to solve than this – and that includes tomorrows main event !

30 runners taking on the Aintree fences, in soft ground: it will be one for the brave – and the lucky !

It’s possible that the overnight rain will have had a big impact on the ground.

It seemed to be riding soft yesterday – but there must be a chance it will be edging towards heavy today.

If that is the case, then it won’t help the chances of Eastlake.

I would be keen on his chances, provided the ground is no worse than soft (so as it was yesterday) – but my enthusiasm will reduce, the more rain that falls…

He actually won this race 2 years ago – on soft ground – and from a mark 1lb higher than he races off today.

Admittedly he is now 12 – but I’m pretty sure the fire still burns and I reckon he remains capable of winning a race such as this.

Certainly he travelled with purpose on his most recent outing at Cheltenham – and I’m sure that race was just being used to ready him for today.

If he gets way with the ground, then I can see him running a really big race…

I don’t think the ground will be an issue for Polidam – in fact, I can see him relishing it.

Whether he’s as keen on the fences, only time will tell – but I’m hopeful !

He’s a difficult horse to quantify, as he has only run 4 times for Willie Mullins.

He was sent off 7/4 fav in a 14 runner handicap, on his debut for the stable at last seasons Punchestown festival – but disappointed.

He wasn’t anywhere near as strong in the market on his seasonal debut at Navan, back in November – but he hacked up !

He’s only run twice since then – both times in big handicap – and both times he has run with some credit, without being quite good enough to place.

I suspect that Willie has been getting to know him – and it strikes me as significant that he chosen to run him in this particular race, with all of the other options at Cheltenham, Fairyhouse and Punchestown.

Time will tell whether he has made the right call – but generally, Willie gets more right than he gets wrong, so I’m happy to trust his judgement !

Obviously in a race like this, there are plenty of others for whom a case can be made…

Flying Angel is starting to look well handicapped – and should run well, provided he handles the fences: whilst Ultragold won this race 12 months ago and must have a decent chance of repeating the feat, off a mark just 5lb higher.

4:40 Nicky Henderson saddles the 3 market leaders in this, in the shape of Santini, OK Corral and Chef des Obeaux.

All 3 ran in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival: with OK Corral finishing second, Santini third and Chef Des Obeaux unplaced.

I wouldn’t be completely sure that form would be upheld today – though it might be !

In truth, I think all 3 could be beatable – but unfortunately, I can’t find anything that I’m happy to take them on with…

The Albert Bartlett as a particularly gruelling race, so there must be a chance is has left its mark. That said, as was shown yesterday, Henderson is just about the best around at judging whether his horses have recovered sufficiently to take in both meetings.

If I were to take on his trio, then it would probably be with either Poetic Rhythm or Count Meribel.

Both are tough horses, so if this turns into a war (and it might), they will be good ones to have on your side.

That said, neither is rock solid, as Poetic Rhythm ran disappointingly in the Albert Bartlett, for no obvious reason: whilst Count Meribel has disappointed on his 2 most recent runs.

Obviously, they are not machines – and horses do have bad days – but it’s still hard to back them to bounce back, when you can find no reason for a poor run…

On balance then, I feel this has to be a watching race…

5:15 As was the case with the bumper that closed yesterday card, there is a very short priced favourite in this.

However, unlike yesterday, the horse in question – Danny Kirwan – doesn’t have the form in the book to justify his paltry odds.

His price is primarily down to his reputation, with him only having won a bumper at Kempton.

Admittedly he did it impressively, and in Pym, he beat a well regarded horse who had himself won a bumper on his only start.

However, Danny Kirwan was receiving 7lb that day – so strictly on the book, isn’t guaranteed to uphold the form.
More than that, there are at least half a dozen in this race, who either have the form or the potential, to challenge the favourite.

Top of the list, is Mercy Mercy Me – with his 8^th in the Cheltenham bumper probably setting the standard for todays contest.

I would expect him to run his race – though he might be vulnerable to one of the less exposed ones…

Both Servano and Mister Fisher have won their only bumper – and both look to have at least as much potential as Danny Kirwan – yet are more than double his price.

Of those at longer prices, then I quite like Al Dancer.
He won on his debut for Nigel Twiston Davies and is the only representative in the race for a stable that has won the race twice, in recent years.

At 40/1 he could be worth a small speculative play.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

Aint 1:45 Landin 1pt win 14/1

Aint 2:20 Irish Roe 0.5pt EW 20/1

Aint 2:50 Elegant Escape 1pt win 11/2

Aint 4:05 Poildam 0.5pt win 16/1 (AP)

Aint 4:05 Eastlake 0.5pt win 28/1

Mentions

Aint 3:25 Balco des Flos (C )

Aint 4:40 Poetic Rhythm & Count Meribel (S )

Aint 5:15 Al Dancer (S )