Daily write-up - Apr 1st

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Plumpton and Ffos Las in the UK – plus Fairyhouse and Cork in Ireland.

It’s the first day of the 3 day Easter carnival at Fairyhouse – and the days best action takes place at the County Meath venue.

There are a couple of Grade 1 events; plus a grade 2 – and two very competitive handicaps.

It should be a great watch – though betting opportunities are thin on the ground.

The racing isn’t of the same calibre at the 3 other venues – though each one has a decent handicap as the main event on the card.

I’ll offer my thoughts on all 3 - in addition to the big races on the Fairyhouse card.

Before I get on to that, just a plug for a couple of things that are going on in the forum….

Regular readers should recall that I gave a positive mention to Chris’s System bets thread, in the middle of last month.

Well, despite this additional pressure (!), things have continued to go from strength to strength.

Yesterday, Chris posted 13 system bets – and 5 of them won !

Across the entire month, he posted a total of 60 bets – and 15 of them won, yielding a level stake profit of 56.3pts at BSP (better if you took the Fair price at the time of issue).

Since September, he has posted 524 bets – and at level stakes they are showing a profit of 162pts at BSP.

I doubt you’ll find much better anywhere – and the real beauty is that the bets can be very easily placed (I use Betdaq, which shows how easy it is !).

The other thread I want to recommend reading, is a new one, started by Dave (of forum Naps competition fame).

Dave has set himself a ‘50 bet challenge’ (it will run through the summer months) – staking £100 per race on 50 races, with the objective of winning sufficient to fund a trip to the Maldives, next winter !

I’ve no idea whether he will be successful – but I’ve no doubt it will be an entertaining (and informative) read.

Best of luck, Dave !

Anyway, on with the rationale for todays tips – plus my thoughts on the days other main races…

Fairyhouse

2:20 This is a near impossible race to get a handle on, with 13 relatively unexposed novices in competition.…

Unsurprisingly, representatives of the usual suspects head the market, in the shape of Back Bar and Caltext for Gigginstown/Elliot – plus the JP McManus owned, Call a Cab.

Victory for any of the 3 would be no great surprise – and indeed is a quite likely outcome.

That said, if I were to get involved with the race, I would be more inclined to take a small risk on the JP McManus second string, Dundrum Lad.

He’s not run since disappointing at Galway, back in October, but has shown himself capable of running well fresh, in the past.

He may be a bit of value at 16/1 – though thatt said, if he is, the price will probably be gone by the time you read this !

2:50 The first Grade 1 on the Fairyhouse card, is a mares novice hurdle – and it looks to be Laurinas for the taking…

She was massively impressive when winning the equivalent race at the Cheltenham festival - and all things being equal, she should follow up in this.

Certainly, if she runs to the same level of form, non of her opponents will be able to live with her – so if you oppose her, it is in the hope that she runs way below her capabilities – or misfortune befalls her…

I couldn’t consider taking her on, based on such hopes - so it will just be a case of enjoying the spectacle.

In terms of what will follow her home, then British raider, Woolstone One looks most likely – but is also second favourite.

Unlike most of the other runners, she bypassed Cheltenham (and a likely hard race), so there should be no reason why she won’t run her race.

Salsaretta, Alletrix, Cut the Mustard and Dawn Shadow are all possible EW options – but of the 3, only Allextrix missed Cheltenham – and she has run even more recently.

Furthermore, the others all appeared to have hard races – so it’s anyones guess if they will run to form, this afternoon.

If forced off the fence, I would side with Dawn Shadow EW at 50/1, as her running style may enable her to sneak into the frame.

On balance though, it’s a watching race…

3:20 The interesting aspect of this race, is that the 3 market leaders; Blow by Blow, Duc Des Genievres and Scarpeta, all ran last time at the Cheltenham festival – and all had hard races…

Blow by Blow won the Martin Pipe hurdle: whilst Duc de Genievres and Scarpeta chased home Samcro (at a respectful distance !).

Little more than 2 weeks have passed since then – and whilst they could have fully recovered from their exertions, at the prices, I think all 3 warrant opposing.

The question is, what to oppose them with…

Pallasator is an option – as too, at a big price, is Riders on the Storm – however, I fancy the chance of Jetz more than both of them…

He is closely related to former Champion hurdler, Jezki and has inherited a fair chunk of the family ability.

He has been gradually progressing over hurdles – and last time, came within a head of taking a Grade 1 at the Dublin racing festival.

That run – and his previous third to Next Destination – links him in closely with the best novices.

In fact he split Duc de Genievres and Blow by Blow, when he finished fourth to Next Destination.

Based simply on that run – and the fact that he will be a fresher horse – he has a chance of beating Duc de Genievres and Blow by Blow today – but I think his case is stronger than that…

In all of his races so far, he has shown a tendency to pull.

As a consequence, he probably hasn’t quite done himself justice (despite running well).

Jessie Harrington fits a hood for the first time today – and I’m hoping that will help him to settle and enable him to use his energy more effectively.

Interestingly, Jezki was wearing a hood for the first time when he won the Champion hurdle.

If the aid has a similar impact with Jetz this afternoon, I’ll be very happy !

3:55 Whilst superficially this appears a competitive 12 runner handicap – it’s hard to see the winner coming from outside the top 3 in the betting.

Patrick Park was a good winner of a similar contest at the Dublin Racing festival, on his second run for Willie Mullins.

He’s been raised 10lb for that win – but could easily be up to defying his new mark.
If he’s not, then Bon Papa looks the one most likely to take advantage.

He’s making his handicap debut this afternoon – but has shown decent form in Grade 1 events on his 2 most recent runs and looks likely to relish the drop back in trip.

It’s not easy to judge his opening mark of 139 – but it doesn’t look overly harsh.

Bel Ami de Sivola is the third most likely winner of the race – and third favourite !

He’s arguably got the most solid form in the race – but hasn’t got the scope for improvement of his 2 main rivals.

If they both disappoint, then he is the one most likely to take advantage – but if they don’t, he’s unlikely to be good enough to win.

With the betting looking spot on, it’s virtually impossible to find an angle.

Bel Ami de Sivola, EW, would make a small profit if he was placed – but set against the risk of something going wrong, it’s probably not worth the risk.

Another watching race…

4:30 If she’s in the same form that she was when winning the JLT at the Cheltenham festival last time, then Shattered Love will follow up in this.

She cruised through that race – and despite making a mess of the last, was a very easy winner.

The ease of her victory that day surprised me – but there was no fluke about it and in receipt of the 7lb sex allowance from all of her rivals today, she will take a lot beating.

Ofcourse, if her exertions at Cheltenham have taken the edge off her, then she will be vulnerable – but we won’t know if that’s the case, until it is too late…

The market has Invitation Only as her main rival – and Willie Mullins certainly seems to be making positive noises abut his chances.

He made a race ending mistake at the fourth last in the JLT – though that probably saved him from having a particularly hard race.

The Storyteller and Al Boom Photo both had hard races at Cheltenham – the former when winning the Plate and the latter when falling in the RSA.
Even if they are at their best today, I suspect that won’t be quite good enough.

Saturnas is potentially more interesting – at a big price.

He needs to make significant improvement on the form he has shown over fences so far – but that’s not impossible.
Whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tycoon Price outrun truly crazy odds (66/1).

I was quite keen on him at Cheltenham – but he made a race ending mistake at the fourth last.

Again, that will have saved him from having a very hard race – and the fact that Gordon Elliott is even running in him in this, is interesting…

With so many imponderables, it has to be a watching race – but it should be an interesting one !

Cork

4:05 The high light of the Cork card, is this very decent handicap hurdle.

The market strongly favours the Willie Mullins trained Lareena and the Gavin Cromwell trained Spades are Trumps – and it may well be right.

Both hoses are making their handicap debuts and have massive scope for improvement.

I’m not sure I’d be wanting to lay either one, that’s for sure !

Of the others, then I initially thought that Goulane Chosen looked very interesting, off a mark 25lb lower than his chase mark.

However, the fact that Donal McInerney, who rode him last time, isn’t in the saddle, puts me off a little – as does the fact that the horse ran over hurdles as recently as January,  when he didn’t show a great deal…

It may simply be that he’s much better over fences than he is over hurdles.

De Benno is the other one of interest – but from a potential pre-race back to lay in running perspective.

Like Goulane Chose, he is much lower rated over hurdles than he is over fences – but  I will be surprised if he is able to capitalise on that fact.
I’ll be far less surprised however, if he leads early – and by quite a margin (he’s the only confirmed front runner in the field – and he rely does like to front run !).

Certainly if you do back him pre-race it should be relatively easy to exit the bet early for either profit or a free bet.

Ffos Las

4:35 The first thing I should say, is that this is the first race that Dave has chosen to bet in, as part of his 50 race challenge.

His thoughts can be read on the forum.

And I guess it’s quite nice that he and I have come to roughly the same conclusion !

In fairness, he arrived at it first – but then again, he did study the race a few days before me !

Both of us are of the opinion that Bob Ford is the one to beat.

He won the corresponding race 3 years ago – and off a mark just 1lb lower than he races from today.

Conditions were truly desperate on that occasion – and he simply ground his rivals into submission.

Ffos Las is very much a specialists course – so it’s in Bob Fords favour that he has won there 4 times – and on each occasion, the ground was heavy.

Certainly he should have no issue with todays conditions – and I suspect that won’t be the case for many of his rivals.

The really interesting thing with him today, is the fitting of first time blinkers.
He’s a horse who has tended to be ridden prominently – though his enthusiasm to front run hasn’t been quite so evident recently.

If the blinkers fire him up, then I could easily see him making all – and as was the case 3 years ago, his rivals could end up being ground into submission…

All this said, if the race was being run elsewhere – or even on slight better ground – I would be very keen on Pobbles Bay.
There is little doubt in my mind, that he is the best horse in the race (by some margin) – and well handicapped (despite having top weight).

His penultimate run was in the Welsh National – and turning, I thought him the most likely winner.
He didn’t get home that day – and it may be a similar story today – though as that was only his second run of the season, it is also possible that he wasn’t 100% fit…

He’ll be fit today – and he also faces lesser opponents – so there is a chance that he may simply have too much class.

In my heart, I suspect that this will end up too much of a test for him (thanks to Bob !) – but I feel I must have a saver on him, in case it doesn’t end up quite the war I envisage.

Plumpton

3:15 Just a quick mention for Lickpenny Larry in this.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Towcester – and would probably have won at Leicester last time, if he’d not made a bad mistaken at the fourth last.

He’ll probably win today – provided he doesn’t make any similar mistakes.
That said, a price of 2/1 means that I’m likely to just be watching…

3:45 This is a really tight race, but as I expect Mr Antolini to be favourite - and he can be backed at 11/2 (6/1 in places !) - I feel I have to take a chance on him…

On his most recent outing, he won the Imperial Cup at Sandown.

He only beat Call Me Lord by a neck that day - but there were 9 lengths back to the favourite, Whatswrongwithyou, and in the circumstances, I feel Mr Antolini got off lightly with just a 6lb rise.

Certainly it is very strong 2 mile handicaps form – and if he runs to the same level this afternoon, he will take a lot of beating.

One slight concern is that Plumpton is a much sharper track than Sandown – and it was Mr Antolinis stamina that won him the day.
However, he travelled very sweetly through the race – and I’m struggling to imagine that it will be anything but tough going, in the mud at Plumpton this afternoon !

Early du Lemo has been installed favourite on the back of a promising reappearance at Newbury.

He is relatively unexposed and gets in today with a light weight.

However the Newbury run was just 9 days ago – and he’s unproven on ground as soft as he will be facing this afternoon.

Remilluc is the solid option in the race.

He’s a course specialist – and has been in tremendous form lately,

However, he runs today off a career high mark of 148 – and as a 9 year old, at the end of a long season, that’s a big ask.

The ground and trip are the worry with Kings Walk – accepting that he was an impressive winner last time (and travelled well in the race): whilst Vado Forte and Jaisalmar are both novices – and this is a tough ask at this stage of their respective careers.

In summary, whilst Mr Antolini isn’t a certainty, in what’s a tough race – he has lots in his favour and is a good bet at the available price.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Fair 3:20 Jetz 1pt win 10/1

Ffos 4:35 Bob Ford 1pt win 9/1

Ffos 4:35 Pobbles Bay 0.5pt 11/1

Plum 3:45 Mr Antolini 1pt win 11/2

Mentions

Fair 2:20 Dundrum Lad (S )

Fair 2:50 Dawn Shadow EW (O )

Fair 3:55 Bel Ami De Sivola EW (O )

Fair 4:30 Shattered Love  (C )

Plum 3:15 Lickpenny Larry (P )